This is the end, beautiful friend.
…Well, maybe.
Longtime readers of Bauer’s Bubble Watch should know that the Monday or Tuesday before Selection Sunday typically marks the swan song for the annual column. Longtime readers should also know that I have tried my darnedest to get out a final final update on the Thursday or Friday prior to selection day, to no avail every time. Life is hard, y’all! If I had the free time to write thousands of words about college basketball bubble teams every day, I surely would. But alas, this is not the reality we live in.
So—will I fall for the same mistake of making empty promises yet again? You bet your sweet bippy I will! If I am able to find the time, there will be a true conclusion to Bauer’s Bubble Watch on Thursday or Friday this week. But, back in the real world, it’s shaping up to be another all-timer of a week work-wise (four full days of filming and editing high school basketball state tournaments!), so I think the prospect is probably unlikely.
If this is indeed the final Bauer’s Bubble Watch of 2025, it sure has been a pleasure to watch a bubble with y’all over this past month and change. Many, many thanks to you for reading along.
But let’s nix the sappy goodbyes for now; we’ve still got one more Watch to go! Champ Week is here, and as a handful of mid-major tournaments wrap up play, the rest of Division I gets down to business. Congratulations are in order for Drake, Lipscomb, SIUE, Omaha, and High Point for sealing their March Madness invites, all thanks to conference tourney titles (the latter three especially—all first-time dancers!), and we’ll have 26 more automatic bids to hand out later this week. But for those teams that aren’t so lucky to earn such certainty, sprucing up the ol’ at-large résumé has never been more important—especially when bid thieves in conferences such as the American, Atlantic 10, and possibly even Big West lurk around the corner.
This brings us into the final(?) edition of Bauer’s Bubble Watch, with four locks to hand out, four bubbles to pop, and many more cases to analyze as the final week of pre-tournament play commences. Our categorical breakdown reads as is:
Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because it happened. (Ahem—what happened to nixing the sappy goodbyes? Get on with it!)
ACC
Is there still hope for Duke to get the #1 overall seed? Might be a crazy thing to say for a team that hasn’t played a game against a ranked opponent since December, but if their utter domination of the ACC is any indication, there’s still hope. Think of the Blue Devils like those Gonzaga teams of not-so-long ago; they did what they needed to in non-conference to turn heads (wins over Arizona, Auburn) before laying waste to their weak conference, the only loss being to the league’s second-best team (Clemson) in their own building. Sounds a bit like 2022 Gonzaga, no? That Zags team earned top overall honors over a Kansas team that had the #1 résumé metric sweep, as well as eight more Quad 1/2 wins. Sounds a bit like this year’s Auburn, no? And the Tigers’ Saturday home loss to Alabama has made the gap between Duke (+39.66) and Auburn (+35.90) in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency as large as it’s been this season… so you see how the pieces are coming together! Whatever the selection committee does decide on, don’t rule out the possibility of a stunner at #1 overall, especially if Duke wins the ACC tournament and Auburn stumbles somewhere in the SEC bracket.
As for ACC bubble talk, we can finally, finally, finally lay merciful rest to SMU. For months, the predictive metrics demanded that the Mustangs remain in the at-large conversation, and résumé metrics in the 40s actually tended to agree, despite the lack of any decent wins on this team sheet. But with Saturday’s loss at Florida State in tow, SMU is now an incredible 0-8 in their eight toughest games—a clip so ridiculously bad that the résumé numbers have finally fallen out of typical consideration range into the low 50s and 60s. The Mustangs had ample opportunity to prove the quality numbers right. They failed every single time. They are not a tournament team.
North Carolina: It’s 2023 all over again, isn’t it? Faced with a must-win game in the season finale against a vastly superior Duke squad in Chapel Hill, North Carolina gave it a go, even going as far taking a lead over their arch-rivals in the second half, but ultimately gave way to the better team, leaving this profile with still-solid efficiency metrics in the 30s, though, more importantly, a résumé metric average nearing 50 and a single, lonely Quadrant 1 victory. Eerie how similar it all is. That 2023 team, of course, did not make the necessary noise in the ACC tournament, and were among the committee’s first four teams out. And wouldn’t you know it—your average bracketologist, according to the Bracket Matrix, has this year’s Tar Heels presently in the first four out. Unless UNC wants to relive painful history, it must get to work in the ACC tourney—beat the Pitt/Notre Dame winner on Wednesday, beat Wake Forest on Thursday, and beat Duke on Friday to reach the championship game. That’s the only viable path I can see for the Tar Heels… unless UNC AD and committee chair Bubba Cunningham is able to pull some Saul Goodman-style lobbying in the selection room. (If this single-Q1-win UNC team gets an at-large over a UC San Diego type, so help me…)
Wake Forest: Guess who else needs to beat an in-state rival in the ACC quarterfinals, then Duke in the semifinals, to receive serious consideration for a bid? I’ll resist the urge to copy-paste North Carolina’s blurb for Wake Forest, but it’s almost the exact same scenario: résumé metrics just clinging to consideration range, dire lack of quality victories in the uppermost quadrant, yada yada yada. What makes Wake even more of a long shot is perception. Whereas UNC at least put up the fisticuffs for a bit in the second half of their gotta-have-it game against Duke, the Demon Deacons, well, did not (understatement of the century), trailing by as many as 40 points during last Monday’s beatdown in Durham. Yeesh. (Hey, there’s a reason that the quality metrics have placed the Deacs in the 60s and 70s all year. They’re just not that good.) Anyway, Wake Forest is very unlikely to make the dance; if they match up against UNC on Thursday, they’ll be an underdog, and if they win that one to match up with Duke on Friday, they’ll be an underdog of 20 or more points. Needless to say, I don’t like their chances.
BIG 12
A 2-0 finish to the regular season makes it official: welcome to March, West Virginia! It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride in year one for the Darian DeVries Mountaineers, soaring from the high heights of beating Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kansas in late 2024, and sinking to the low lows of losing three in a row in late January and learning Tucker DeVries’ injuries would keep him sidelined for the season, but WVU has made it to the finish line nonetheless. I admittedly don’t feel great about locking a team that is just 9-12 in Quad 1/2 and still has metrics poking into the 40s and even 50s, especially when they still haven’t beaten a fellow tournament team since Iowa State on Jan. 18, but those aforementioned early-season triumphs remain just as important as the games played recently, and they give this résumé the weight it needs to remove all doubt. Expect the ‘Neers to land a 9 or 10 seed six days from now.
And two more pops to perform—we say sayonara to Cincinnati and TCU. The Horned Frogs were always a weak bubble inclusion, in desperate need of wins over both Baylor and Colorado to keep their name in the conversation. TCU lost both, the latter by 20 points, and now have zero shot of reaching the dance without a Big 12 tournament title in hand. Cincinnati may not need to go quite that far; a run to the conference finals, picking up two Quad 1 wins over Iowa State and BYU along the way, might be enough to give the Bearcats another peek. But at 17-14 currently with their highest résumé metric being a 60th-ranked SOR (and let’s not glance over that dastardly 1-11 Quad 1 record), there’s no reason to have the ‘Cats on the Watch currently. There also may not be reason to believe that they even get out of the first round; Tuesday’s matchup is against Oklahoma State, who Cincy just lost to in Stillwater two days ago. Think we’re safe tucking this one into bed.
Baylor: Baylor maintains the strange designation of a bubble team that is one win away from being a lock, and one loss away from potentially being out the bracket altogether. It all boils down to that overall record clause, baby! Predictably, the Bears did not end Houston’s infinity-long road winning streak, but they did give ’em hell for 40 minutes, and that, paired with Tuesday’s absolutely necessary win at TCU, keeps Baylor in good graces for now; their 17-13 DI record provides much more room to work with than 16-14. Improve that mark to 18-13 by beating the Kansas State/Arizona State winner in the Big 12 quarterfinals, and I’m certain that a team with top-30 predictives, 11 Quad 1/2 wins, and a somewhat shaky but doable résumé average near 40 is in the dance. But an upset defeat to the Wildcats or Sun Devils would put Baylor at 17-14: right on the edge of what the selection committee considers acceptable. I’d lean that it’d still be enough to put the Bears in, given the state of the bubble, but what if a North Carolina or a Texas goes on a rampage in their conference tourney? Or what if the bid thief shenanigans of last year make an encore appearance? It’d be a very, very, very uncomfortable Selection Sunday wait in Waco. Get the job done, Baylor.
BIG EAST
Thank god I can finally stop talking about Villanova. The Wildcats were becoming a real thorn in my side, never officially a Bauer’s Bubble Watch member, but always an interesting case on the outside worth keeping the door ever so slightly ajar for. Well, no longer! After three straight wins to re-enter the cusp of consideration, the Wildcats did what they absolutely could not do in the regular-season finale, giving up a Jayden Epps bucket with five seconds left to fall at Georgetown. Georgetown! A.k.a., the Big East’s punchline for the last half-decade. I get that the Hoyas are playing much better ball now, but still—you cannot lose that game if you’re serious about making a final tournament push! As it stands, the conference crown is officially the only way out for Villanova now. (All these wasted words on someone who was never even a true bubble team. Sometimes I just can’t help myself.)
Xavier: You’ve gotta love a bubble team that just puts its head down and gets to work. This is what the Xavier Musketeers have done, a near-certain NIT choice a month ago after a deflating collapse at Villanova, now on the right side of the cut line for many a bracketologist following seven straight victories. The wins over Creighton and Butler are the only two that are remotely helpful résumé-wise, but the other pieces of this streak have added just enough girth to culminate in the X-Men poking their nose back above the 50 threshold for the first time since god knows when. Still don’t love that 1-8 mark in Quad 1, obviously, and I think that’s the kind of thing that keeps Xavier’s ceiling among the First Four. But an 8-2 record in Quad 2, that lone Q1 win being a big one in Milwaukee, and the general sensation that this is a good basketball team that’s been playing good basketball for the last month go a long, long way. Up next: a chance to topple Marquette at a non-Cintas location for the second time in Thursday’s Big East quarters. You know what that would be? A Quad 1 win. I know just the team who could really use one of those…
BIG TEN
I’m sorry, Nebraska, but I have to pull the plug. The Cornhuskers’ head-scratching 15-point defeat at Penn State on Feb. 19 proved to be the harbinger of things to come, as Fred Hoiberg and company would go on to lose each of their final five games. The ax comes down after this latest spell, in which the Huskers dropped yet another heartbreaker in a marathon double-overtime finish at Ohio State on Tuesday: a defeat that seemed to have taken whatever little wind was remaining out of their sails, as Sunday’s 83-68 home loss to Iowa serves as the official death knell. You might think this is a premature popping, given that Nebraska’s team-sheet numbers in the mid-50s and 9-12 Quad 1/2 record are still only barely outside the field… but the key here is that Nebraska is indeed on the outside, and there is no way left to play their way in, as a number of unhelpful tiebreakers are keeping the Huskers on the couch for the Big Ten tournament. Plain and simple, the NCAA is not handing an at-large to a team that missed its own conference postseason. And thus, the wait for NCAAT win number one extends another year. Sigh.
Indiana: Did anyone else get a little teary-eyed on Saturday watching Indiana put the finishing touches on a hugely important bubble win over Ohio State, as Mike Woodson and his Hoosiers hugged it out after his final game coaching from the Assembly Hall sideline? For as much flack as I’ve given Woodson for Indiana’s frequent disasters, he’s a good man, if only an ill fit as head coach of a school with such lofty expectations. But Hoosiers fans can still part with a positive impression if IU knocks off Oregon in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on Wednesday, a win that would likely seal a bid for the third time in four years. (I get that battling on the bubble is not what a program with the prestige of Indiana wants be doing on a yearly basis, but, ya know, other teams would kill for that kind of tournament appearance consistency…) Even with a loss to the Ducks, I think Indiana is probably in, very likely headed to Dayton, so long as bid thieves are kept to a minimum. A 4-12 Quad 1 record, no non-conference win better than NET #98 Providence, and metrics in the 40s and 50s keep me from feeling more than mildly comfortable about the Hoosiers’ case. But my gut says that after all this season-long drama, they end up in the big dance after all.
Ohio State: My gut is not nearly as sold on Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ flirtations with the cut line continue after a 1-1 week, i.e., the bare minimum to stay in contention heading into the Big Ten tournament. And at least one win—if not two—in Indianapolis is mandatory for survival once again. Historical record precedent is just too overbearing here; no team has ever earned an at-large with a Q1-3 record worse than one game below .500 (2023 Providence was 10-11). Ohio State is well below that mark at 11-14. Likewise, no team in the past two decades has earned an at-large with an overall record of less than four games above .500, save for a handful of clubs in the COVID-impacted seasons of 2021 and 2022. Ohio State is 17-14. Without wins over both Iowa and Illinois this week, a Buckeyes selection would snap two long-established patterns at once. Sure, OSU has nabbed a couple of big ones from time to time, notably winning at Purdue and beating Kentucky in Madison Square Garden by 20. But is a group that has résumé metrics near 50 and is just 4-7 in true road contests really worth breaking history for? Hence why my gut’s got that sinking feeling on these Bucks. Let’s get some wins, guys.
SEC
What unbelievable resolve from Georgia. Just two Mondays ago, I was ready to leave the Bulldogs for dead, losers of four straight and nine of the last 11, well outside the tournament field and showing zero indication that this would change any time soon. But in a stunning turn of events, the Dogs did a 180—the most 180 a 180 has ever been—riding the high of Feb. 25’s cathartic home victory over Florida to three more sensational dubs—at Texas, at South Carolina, and vs. Vanderbilt—to transform this case from clear NIT team to likely 9 or 10 seed in the big dance. A 4-10 Quad 1 record still isn’t the prettiest thing to be showing on your team sheet, but at 20-11 overall and with a metric profile starting to breach the 20s, I don’t see any way that Georgia can be left out at this point, even if they fall to Oklahoma in their first-round SECT matchup on Wednesday. The Dogs are dancing for the first time since 2015.
Arkansas: Hold your horses, Razorback faithful! (Or, rather, hold your hogs? Actually, don’t do that.) You might be readying to throw trash at me at the sight of Georgia being named a lock while Arkansas remains outside absolute safety (save the garbage-slinging for the other SEC fanbases, please), but you need to hear me out. Though the two have taken similar courses of correction over the past few weeks, these résumés are not comparable; Georgia ranks about 10 spots higher in both results and efficiency measures, has three Quad 1A wins to Arky’s one, and at least has a good 5-1 record in Quad 2 to counteract a rather poor Q1 showing; Arkansas, meanwhile, is just 2-3 in the second quadrant. Whereas the Bulldogs track more so with a low 9 or high 10 seed, the Razorbacks are still looking at an appearance in the Last Four Byes or Last Four In, albeit almost surely in the field at present moment. But we don’t want to jump to conclusions when we’ve seen an entire seed line get swiped by bid thieves as recently as last year. Beat South Carolina in the SEC tourney’s first round on Wednesday, and I’d feel real good about the Hogs; beat Ole Miss in the second round on Thursday, and I’d feel 100% certain. Very manageable task, if Arkansas’ recent results are any indication.
Oklahoma: Is Oklahoma really gonna pull this thing off? 4-12 in SEC play Oklahoma? That Oklahoma? Well, no, not that Oklahoma—at least not anymore; the Sooners are now an esteemed 6-12 in conference! (Take that!) My tone may be facetious, but my critique is anything but; two Quad 1 wins in the span of four days, the latter doing much to resolve a rancid 1-7 road record, is an astronomical turn of fortune. Suddenly, the conversation surrounding the Sooners’ profile has gone from “I guess they’re still in the field because we need to get to 68 teams somehow” to “actually, this is somewhat reasonable for an at-large bid.” And, boy, is that a breath of fresh for a team that has spent the majority of 2025 piddling away its goodwill built up from that 13-0 non-conference start. I can’t put Oklahoma above the bubble, namely because marks of 10-11 in Q1/2 and 2-7 on the road, though better than 8-11 and 1-7 from before, still aren’t great, and I’d imagine their metrics in the low to mid-40s would have them packing their bags for Dayton presently. But if OU can keep this sudden burst of steam going and do some damage in Nashville this week, I don’t see why they can’t climb above the Last Four In line when it’s all said and done. The SEC is just full of late surprises this year, huh?
Texas: Man, what a disappointment. The SEC is likely going to send 12 or 13 out of 16 teams to the tournament… and Texas is not going to be one of them. Kudos need be given for Tuesday’s thrilling win in Starkville; the Longhorns’ bubble remains ever so slightly inflated as a consequence of that wild result. But Saturday’s home loss to arch-rival Oklahoma served as a brutal comedown, making it four defeats in the last five, and sending Texas to 8-14 in Quad 1/2 and into the low 50s and 60s résumé-wise. Yuck! We talked about record precedent with Ohio State, and the same is very much true for Texas; if the 11-14 in Q1-3 Buckeyes are feeling the flames of history, then the 10-14 Longhorns may very well be cooked already. As you could probably guess, a deep SEC tournament run is the only method for salvaging the season; beat Vanderbilt, beat Texas A&M, and beat Tennessee to reach the SEC semis, then we can talk. And, heck, that may still not be enough—just look at other arch-rival A&M, who cobbled together a mid-March insano run of their own in the 2022 campaign, but did all their best winning far too late in the selection committee’s discussions, narrowly missing out on a bid. Just about all signs are pointing to midnight in Austin.
OTHERS
It was 41 years ago that Tex-Mex rock favorite Los Lobos posed the question: How Will the Wolf Survive? We have our answer in 2025: by winning the Mountain West regular season and taking an 11-4 Quad 1/2 record into the final week of play! (Sorry if that was a really cheesy joke, but that’s what ya signed up for when you opened this column. No refunds!) Yes, New Mexico is officially tournament-bound for the second straight season, disposing of the remaining roadblocks in Nevada and UNLV to reach 24-6 overall and claim the MW tourney’s top seed. The Lobos could still potentially incur a bad Q3 loss to the San Jose State/Wyoming winner in the Mountain West quarterfinals, which wouldn’t pair very nicely with the two Q3 defeats already on UNM’s ledger, but it would not be enough to sully résumé numbers in the high 20s and low 30s and a Q1/2 winning percentage unmatched in their portion of the bracket. Get the “La Bamba” cranking, ’cause the Lobos are dancing once again!
And while the Bauer’s Bubble Watch “lock” designation is as good as gold, it’s still nothing compared to the platinum-plated lock of actually winning your conference tournament, which Drake just so happened to do. While other bracketologists debated the at-large viability of a potential 27-4 Bulldogs team, I never did; a Drake with résumé numbers in the 30s and a Q1/2 record of 5-0 was already in the dance for me, regardless of the Missouri Valley title game result against Bradley. But if any doubt persists, casting it out is always the preferred course of action, and Drake did just that, taking the season series over the Braves with Sunday’s 63-48 slug-it-out championship clincher. Some poor 6 or 7 seed is going to be none too thrilled when they see the Bulldogs lined up across from them on Selection Sunday.
Utah State: One more win: That’s all I’m asking for, Aggies. (Hey, didn’t I use that line last week for New Mexico?) Utah State’s hold-serve final week went as well as you could possibly ask, as the Aggies obliterated Air Force 87-47, not doing anything to help their résumé but keeping the predictives intact just the same, setting up a date in the Mountain West quarterfinals with either a dangerous UNLV (as San Diego has learned the hard way) or that same Air Force team that USU just nuked. Win that game, and the lock is Utah State’s for the taking. Lose that game, and things get a bit sweatier. A profile with résumé metrics in the 35-40 range and just two Quad 1 wins but also bearing a 10-4 clip outside of Logan and an extra-helpful non-con win at Saint Mary’s should be able to withstand that kind of blow… but maybe not without sending the Aggies to the First Four. Just keep the victory wheels in motion for one more day, and Utah State will have zilch to fret about.
San Diego State: Just like USU prior, San Diego State is probably already a lock, but what’s the harm in waiting a couple more days? Unlike the Aggies, the Aztecs are unable to suffer a bad loss in their initial Mountain West tournament game, as the bracket has them facing Boise State to start. But also unlike the Aggies, San Diego State already has one bad loss accrued (home vs. UNLV, Jan. 18) and performance metrics dangling closer to the reaches of the bubble. But also also unlike the Aggies, the Aztecs possess one of the most sensational victories that any team has collected all season (vs. Houston in Vegas, Nov. 30), which may already be enough to have cemented SDSU a tournament spot! Oof, my mind is spinning in circles! Let’s just cut to the chase—San Diego State is likely in, win or lose to Boise on Thursday, but only the former result makes it a 100% guarantee; the latter leaves the Aztecs exposed if bid thieves come knockin’. Let’s play it safe after the antics we saw last year.
UC San Diego: OK, bit of a shaky final week for the Tritons—beating NET #326 Long Beach State at home by seven, then winning at NET #232 UC Davis by 11 isn’t exactly setting the world on fire—but the important thing is that is UC San Diego did indeed win both games, and now they enter the Big West tournament as the top seed at an astounding 26-4 overall. I’m still maintaining that this is a fine at-large case if the Tritons don’t win the darn thing; all metrics but BPI in the top 50, 3-3 against Quad 1/2 with a critical road win at Utah State, 15 total victories outside of La Jolla, et cetera, et cetera. That’s about as good as you can possibly do for a team from a conference that the big dogs would never think twice about giving the time of day. I’m just hopeful that the selection committee sees it the same way. Of course, UCSD can remove all doubt by winning two games in Henderson this weekend… but where’s the fun in that? Don’t you wanna let someone else beat you in the title game and give our two-bid Big West dreams a spark? No? Well, I can’t say I blame you.
VCU: Playing as well as any team in the country, now firmly in the top 30 in NET and similar quality metrics, and you… lose to Dayton at home? Huh? Not the way I would handle my business when a tournament bid is on the line, but you do you, VCU. It’s such a surprising result for a team that had looked so rock-solid for more than a month, slowly but surely inching its way to an at-large-level profile to fall back on should things go sideways in the A-10 tournament (and they usually do). Now, I’m not so sure; those aforementioned efficiency metrics in the 30s are great, but are notably less emphasized when it comes to selecting the final few teams, and the Rams’ résumé remains lean in the necessary spots. A 7-5 Q1/2 record is solid, no doubt, but when the wins have been compiled against zero teams inside the NET top 50, you can see where the cracks start to show through. As is my advice for each and every one of these Others bubble teams, winning the conference tournament is the one way to save yourself from a nervy Selection Sunday. VCU is no exception.
Boise State: No, don’t trip at the finish line! You were doing so well! Boise State really had a groovy thing goin’ for the better part of a month and a half, Feb. 15’s flustering loss at San Diego State being the only negative result in an otherwise impressive ascent from periphery bubbler to full-on at-large target. Many a bracket (including mine) had moved the Broncos into the field entirely after a resounding win over Utah State. But that progress has harshly been halted with Saturday’s home loss to Colorado State, careening Boise’s résumé numbers back toward 60 and leaving the Broncos at just 6-7 in the top two quadrants. (Not to mention Boston College falling back to Quad 4—another detriment that BSU really didn’t need right now.) I still think there’s a case to be made here with those critical non-conference wins over Saint Mary’s and Clemson, but I don’t think said case can stand without another victory or two in the Mountain West tourney. Hopefully the Broncos have figured out that flummoxing Aztecs defense since that 64-47 loss in Viejas a month ago, ’cause that’s who they’ve got on the docket.
Colorado State: A deal’s a deal, Colorado State. Welcome to the Watch! You made it just before the buzzer. If you look up flaming, scorching, smoldering or any synonym for red-hot in the dictionary, you’ll likely find CSU’s logo beside it. The Rams have now won seven straight, none bigger than Saturday’s late push at ExtraMile, a result that finally lands the Rams that long-desired first Quad 1 win and elevating this résumé to second-glance territory. Though, for as good as Colorado State has been lately, I do think it’s still a bit of a stretch; T-Rank is the only metric that has them any higher than 50th, and a record of 1-5 against non-conference opponents Quad 3 or better is a pretty tough sell. But if you want to talk bid thief potential, then Colorado State is right up my alley! Since this winning streak began, the Rams track as a top-15 team in the nation, per T-Rank. No other Mountain West team in that stretch cracks the top 40. That’s a scary statistic for other bubble teams who desperately need the bid thievery to remain in check—and an even scarier sight for the 5 or 6 seed that the Rams would face in March Madness if they pull this thing off.
UC Irvine: One more plea to the selection committee—give UC Irvine a look! I wouldn’t be here pounding the table for the Anteaters if they weren’t deserving. And a 26-5 team that is 4-3 in Quad 1/2 with a résumé average under 50 is anything but undeserving. Admittedly, I nearly lost faith in Irvine’s tenuous at-large case at the midway point of Saturday’s then-beatdown in the Thunderdome, as the Anteaters trailed UC Santa Barbara by as much as 17 in the first half. This was, after all, a must-win game to remain among the Bauer’s Bubble Watch ranks. And win the Zots did, tallying 67 second-half points behind a 34-12 run in the final eight minutes, sweeping the Gauchos and earning Irvine its seventeenth victory outside of its home gym. Seventeen! Y’all, we’re handing out locks to teams that don’t even have a third as many road/neutral wins. If half of the “who did you beat and where did you beat them” argument is to be believed, then no team in the nation is more prolific at the latter half than UC Irvine. All that said, I do think that the Anteaters’ at-large hopes hinge on what they’ve basically always hinged on: winning their Big West semifinal match, then losing to UC San Diego in the championship; any other result is probably a pop. And if they do get to the title game… might as well win the darn thing, eh?
Dayton: There’s always one. One team that everyone and their mother has left in the dustbin for weeks, who then makes a sudden, last-gasp at-large push right before the finish line to reach talks of tournament contention. It was Texas A&M in 2022, Vanderbilt in 2023, and Ohio State in 2024. And the honor stays in the Buckeye State in 2025; welcome to the Watch, Dayton Flyers! You may recall last week in VCU’s writeup how I briefly mentioned that Dayton is “not quite completely dead at-large-wise.” How prophetic that statement turned out to be. The Flyers snagged their single biggest victory of the calendar year on Friday, pulling out a nail biter late in Richmond to turn their profile into something worth considering again—53.3 résumé average, 7-8 in Quad 1/2, top-60 NCSOS with wins over Marquette, UConn, and Northwestern… We absolutely have a case here! It may be a long shot, the longest of long shots, even (after all, all three of those aforementioned examples ultimately missed out on the dance), but I’d be lying if I said this Dayton team didn’t remind me of the one that beat Kansas, Miami, and Virginia Tech in 2022, shocking everybody by appearing as the committee’s very first team out—a team that would have been in the field altogether if not for Richmond committing A-10-on-A-10 crime by beating Davidson in the conference title game and stealing the Flyers’ bid. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it! And I won’t be caught with my pants down. You’ve got my undivided attention, Dayton.