How does a little Bauertology to start the new year sound?
It’s officially 2026, and as previously promised, it’s high time for me get back into the bracketology habit: countless hours of poring over tiny names and numbers, often splitting hairs about a nanometer thick time and time again, for about two-and-a-half months nonstop. And I wouldn’t trade it for the world!
Bracketology is indeed a time-consuming hobby; I reminded myself of that yesterday as I spent the better portion of my afternoon and evening (a generous way of saying “over nine hours”) building today’s seed list and bracket… Though maybe the fact that my attention was split, half-focused on the final NFL Sunday of the year had something to do with that. (I will be billing the Pittsburgh Steelers for the 38 separate heart attacks that I suffered watching the fourth quarter of their game. Champs of the North, baby!)
But college basketball will have my (mostly) undivided attention going forward. After all, we’ve just cracked into the most important part of the season: conference play, where the bulk of games will be played and tournament résumés will be whipped into shape. As of today, Jan. 5, teams only have between one and three conference games under their belt. These team sheets are still very raw, with even less separating the wheat from the chaff than what we’ll see on Selection Sunday, or even just a month from now.
As such, it’s critical to remember that these early-season bracketologies should not be taken too seriously. Things can and will change before the final bell rings; projections like today are really only helpful for providing a sense of where things stand at the conclusion of non-conference play. Who has set themselves up nicely for a tournament bid if they can hold steady through their conference slate? Who has much work to do over the last 60% of the season? These are the questions that an early January bracketology looks to answer, more so than actually predicting how things will turn out down the line.
And another note, this one applying to all my future Bauertology posts this year: Time is a valuable thing! This is a lesson I’m hoping to learn in 2026 by better respecting myself and my time. (Call it my New Year’s resolution, if you will.) As such, I’m being more strict on myself when it comes to my morning and night routines in hopes of living a healthier lifestyle. My bracketology will have to suffer from this change, but only slightly.
As I mentioned prior, even though I’m writing up this blurb on Monday morning, I did indeed build my seed list and bracket across the course of Sunday. As such, my past self did not have access to the new NET rankings, quadrant splits, and metrics that update with every passing night. I did try my best to “predict” what the new numbers would be heading into today based on yesterday’s slate of games, but I can’t play perfect prognosticator every time. For example, Indiana’s Sunday win over Washington boosted their résumé numbers more than I would have expected, and if I were redoing my bracket today, I would likely have the Hoosiers in the field rather than First Four Out, which is where they sit instead. But that’s where they’ll have to be until the next Bauertology update.
(And if you’re saying to yourself, ‘Well, that’s just one game. Just slide Indiana into the bracket somewhere and be done with it!’ …I hear you. But that’s easier said than done. Even just one little change in the seed list can cause massive shifts in the way a bracket is built—less so around the bubble but a lot more so the better the seed is. And would it really be fair to just reappraise the résumé of one team and not the rest of the projected field as well? No, I don’t think so. And especially on days where there’s a whole lot of basketball being played (which is most days), that’s just not a feasible task on short notice. I’m afraid you’ll have to bear with my ever-so slightly outdated projections for the course of 2026. Alas!)
Anyhoo, let’s get to the actual bracket, the first of 2026. As was the case last season, I’m electing to choose each conference’s automatic bid based on who is the current leader (or at least current as of when I started building my seed list, i.e., yesterday afternoon) in my résumé metric BRCT. This is a means to both put my metric to some sort of practical use, as well as save myself some time on both comparing résumés and building graphics, as I’ll have a more concrete basis for picking auto-bids than the other typical choice, that being just using the current leader of each conference’s standings. (Nothing wrong with that approach! Just isn’t my cup of tea.)
I’m really looking forward to what 2026 has in store for me, especially with Bauertology. Happy New Year to all, and let’s get hooping!
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