It’s that time, folks. Let’s watch some bubbles.
Aside from tragically missing out on the fun in 2022 due to lack of free time, I’ve pumped out Bauer’s Bubble Watch post-Super Bowl on a weekly basis every year as far back as 2018, and possibly even earlier (though all editions pre-2021 are sadly lost forever, like dust in the wind). And though writing this column frequently drives me up a wall, given the extensive amount of research and words—often in excess of 10,000—required to do it justice, I love it just the same. Merely having the opportunity to write in-depth about my passion for college hoops during the season’s apex and share that writing with all of you sparks a smile in my heart like few other things do. May Bauer’s Bubble Watch live forever!
For those familiar with these parts, welcome back! For those diving into Bauer’s Bubble Watch for the first time, we’re happy to have you. And for those wondering what the hell a “Bubble Watch” is (some kind of bulbous timepiece, perhaps?), here’s a brief explanation:
The NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament, known worldwide by its colloquial name “March Madness,” is the single greatest single-elimination tournament ever conceived. (The folks who want to tinker with it by adding more unnecessary teams to it would have you believe otherwise.) Come Sunday, March 15, a very special date on the calendar known as “Selection Sunday,” we will learn which 68 of Division I’s 365 teams will be chosen to compete in March Madness and have a shot at bringing their school a national championship.
Of these 68 available spots, 31 will be reserved for each of the 31 conference tournament winners. The other 37 make up the bracket’s “at-large” field, as determined by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. While every team surely wants to win their conference tourney and receive that automatic bid, very few will. That’s why Bauer’s Bubble Watch exists: to figure out who else is going to get a ticket to the Big Dance without the auto-bid in hand.
We’ve got a number of tools to help us in this endeavor—the very same ones that the selection committee uses, in fact: NET rankings, the quadrant system, strength of schedule numbers, record-performance metrics (KPI, SOR, WAB) and inherent-quality metrics (BPI, KenPom, T-Rank), as well as a comprehensive list of every win, loss, and final score that each team has logged to date. By crunching all this data together until it’s one big, globby mess, we can figure out precisely which teams can safely gear up for March and which teams need to put in some elbow grease before doing so, with nearly 100% accuracy.
I say “nearly,” as there is one massive, hulking elephant in the room that I must address before beginning the Bauer’s Bubble Watch campaign for 2026: We are no longer batting 1.000. In all my years of Bubble Watch, I had never improperly deemed a team a “lock,” a.k.a., total NCAA Tournament certainty—that is, until last season. In my anticipation of the impending bracket reveal, I mistakenly handed that tournament-assured status to West Virginia in the final Bauer’s Bubble Watch of the year. The Mountaineers did not make the tournament. And while I still feel strongly that their exclusion was a very stupid decision by the selection committee, that doesn’t change the fact that I was wrong. This is my scarlet letter, my cross that I have to bear for the rest of eternity. Bauer’s Bubble Watch is no longer perfect.
As you might expect, I’m going to take a bit of a “once bitten, twice shy” approach with Bauer’s Bubble Watch this year: No saying that a team is a tournament guarantee unless they are absolutely, unquestionably, without a doubt a guarantee! Ultimately, though, I’m not going to let one miss in seven or eight years of doing this haunt me to the grave. I’m still going to provide the same sort of analysis that I always have in years past… just with slightly stricter standards.
Now, let’s get into the nitty gritty. Bauer’s Bubble Watch sorts all at-large-possible teams into three categories, each demarcating a separate level of safety:
- Lock: The Bauer’s Bubble Watch seal of approval, teams given a “lock” are guaranteed to hear their name called on Selection Sunday, regardless of whether they win their conference tournament or not. (Unless your name is West Virginia, and you’re inexplicably penalized for one guy getting injured in freakin’ December, for some reason. I’m not salty.) The lock lasts forever—once a lock, always a lock!
- Safe: While not as surefire as the lock category, “safe” means exactly what you’d think: You’re totally clear of any worry about missing the tournament cut… at least for the moment. But there are still games to win between now and the closing bell before you can feel completely at ease.
- Bubble: The land of the bubble is where the heart of our discussion lies. Teams in the “bubble” column cannot claim any sense of certainty about being in the projected field right now, but they are, at minimum, in the conversation. Much work must be done before any semblance of safety can be granted.
Bubble Watch is a tense and thrilling game, observing on a week-by-week basis as some teams climb their way to tournament-bound triumph while others stumble badly enough to watch their bubble burst. Every Wednesday, we’ll sort out the winners from the losers in each major conference (as well as a handful of non-Power 5 hopefuls), using our aforementioned categories as the foundation. Here’s how those categories shake out in BBW’s 2026 debut:
One thousand words down, eleven thousand more to go. Welcome to Bauer’s Bubble Watch.
ACC
Is that… Could it be? The good ACC of old?! Oh, how we’ve missed you.
It’s been well-documented (perhaps a little too well-documented) how much the Atlantic Coast Conference has fallen off in recent years in comparison to the rest of the P5, not once ranking higher than fifth in KenPom since the COVID-shortened 2020 season, even then just barely edging out the temporarily deceased Pac-12 for fourth by a fraction. You’ve got to go back a year further before you find the ACC as a top-3 league and one more year before that until you see more than seven ACC teams in the postseason. It’s been a lean half-decade for what many once thought was college basketball’s premier conference.
Not so in 2026! As it stands, the ACC resides in a cozy fourth place on KenPom, cushioned between a top-heavy Big 12 and a mediocre Big East, with a whopping eleven teams currently in tournament contention. I went back to 2021 through the Bauer’s Bubble Watch archives; never has the ACC had double-digit representatives on the page. Finally, the newcomers in SMU, California, and Stanford are holding up their end of the bargain (mostly), while traditional stalwarts like Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, and Virginia are living up to their expectations of yore.
Indeed, it’s a renaissance year on the Atlantic Coast, one that seems likely to land the league at least eight bids for the first time since before the ‘Rona rocked the world. No surprise here that Duke leads the way; they’ve been the one team that’s been practically impervious to this conference-wide slump, on track for their fourth protected seed in the last five tries and second consecutive appearance on the 1 line. The collective play from future first-round trio Cameron Boozer, Patrick Ngongba, and Isaiah Evans has allowed the Blue Devils to bulldoze their way to an 11-1 conference start, all while marquee non-conference victories over protected-seed likelies Kansas, Florida, and Michigan State from late 2025 remain in their back pocket. Duke’s good, y’all. What else is new?
I’ll tell ya what’s new—Virginia is fun to watch again! Ryan Odom was perhaps the single most obvious offseason hire of all, as the former UVA giant-slayer at UMBC has repaid the favor in full, immediately taking the Cavaliers back to a level of relevancy not seen since those late 2010s glory days. And while not quite the same slow-as-molasses, make-you-suffer-for-40-minutes Hoos of the Tony Bennett times, Virginia remains a force on defense (duh, it’s Virginia) and is actually fairly reliable on the other end of the floor, too. Thank goodness.
And last but not least, setting a new Bauer’s Bubble Watch record with three, count ’em, three first-edition locks out of the ACC: Welcome to March, North Carolina! I wasn’t going to hand the Tar Heels a lock right out of the gate, due to the somewhat shoddy state of their quality metrics—not unless they could become the first ACC team to add a tick to Duke’s loss column. Lo and behold, the Heels came back from 13 down on Saturday to beat the Blue Devils at the buzzer (close enough) on one of the best executed open-man-on-the-wing plays I’ve ever seen. There can’t be many feelings better than earning an NCAA Tournament lock by taking down your arch-rival in the waning seconds—save, perhaps, for the same scenario happening in, like, the Final Four or something. Hmm…
Louisville: There’s a reason that the predictive metrics have stood studiously beside Louisville all season, despite the Cardinals’ unfortunate propensity to vanish in their biggest games. That potential was finally unleashed in a 118-point outburst on Monday night, as freshman Mikel Brown (45 points in 34 minutes) and company went berserk on poor NC State, shooting 60% from both the field and from deep. Where exactly was this when Louisville needed it against Arkansas, or Tennessee, or Virginia, or in either loss to Duke? That 0-5 record in the Cardinals’ five toughest contests is what has kept their estimated seed well below where the KenPoms and T-Ranks of the world say they should be. But there’s ample time to turn the tide and prove the predictives right; five of the last seven land in Quad 1, including a rare February non-conference opportunity against Baylor this Saturday. Methinks a win there would pair rather nicely with the late 2025 triumphs over Kentucky and Indiana. Go out and prove ol’ Kenny Pom-Poms right!
Clemson: Fun fact: Clemson has won 14 consecutive road games in ACC play dating back to last January. This is very difficult to do at any level, let alone in a Division I power conference! Not so fun fact: The majority of Clemson’s conference road wins this season have come against teams nowhere close to the field (Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech), while trips to Durham and Chapel Hill still remain on the docket. It’s because of this backloaded schedule that Clemson’s projected seed—typically somewhere in the 6-7 range—hasn’t quite matched the Tigers’ gaudy 20-4 record; they just haven’t had the chances to get their metrics into typical protected seed territory. But they’ve built up a very respectable résumé nonetheless, admittedly light on signature non-conference wins and currently empty against Quadrant 1A (0-2), but with 10 Quad 1/2 wins already in tow, there’s not much reason to fret about whether or not Clemson will earn its third straight NCAA Tournament bid. A win in Cameron Indoor on Saturday would surely make it official.
NC State: OK, so I didn’t have NC State losing by 41 at Louisville on my bingo card. That’s alright! Off nights happen, and they’ve been exceedingly rare as of recent, ever since Will Wade and his band of transfers seemingly found their mojo in an overtime win at Clemson on Jan. 20. That was a big result, as was last Tuesday’s victory at SMU, as the Wolfpack have already won six times on the road in 2026, helping to create a collection of Quadrant 1 and 2 wins—11 of ’em, to be exact—that stands among the top-10 highest marks in the country. Issue here is that most of them fall into the latter quadrant, meaning the overall résumé numbers (KPI 27, SOR 36, WAB 32) aren’t quite as impressive. But don’t you worry—NC State gets three more cracks at Quad 1 before heading to Charlotte for the ACC tourney, including a chance at revenge against Virginia in Charlottesville, as well as showdowns with rivals Duke and UNC, both in Raleigh. The Wolfpack’s next month won’t be short on excitement, that’s for sure.
SMU: It’s nice to see that SMU has put the Quad 1 bubble shenanigans of last year behind them. No team was a bigger thorn in my side to write about in Bauer’s Bubble Watch, as the Mustangs’ metrics remained right in tenable territory, all while that Q1 victory total stayed put at zero with every passing week. Infuriating! No such issue in 2026; victories over Texas A&M (neutral), North Carolina (home), and Wake Forest (away) all seem likely to stay put in the top quadrant. Huzzah! But the Ponies can’t rest on their laurels quite yet. I’d personally designate SMU as the team where “safe” ends and “bubble” begins, as everything about their team sheet—35.0 résumé average, 38.0 quality average, 7-7 record in Q1/2—just screams 9 seed. Any shot at improving those marks likely requires winning on the road; a trip to Syracuse this Saturday and a weekend out on the West Coast in late February represent Q1 opportunities ripe for the picking. Make it happen, ‘Stangs! It’d be a travesty if Boopie Miller were to end his college career March Madness-less.
Miami (FL): Yup, Miami’s getting slapped with the “(FL)” qualifier this year. (Hey, don’t blame me! Blame that upstart bunch of RedHawks from Ohio!) The 2026 Miami Hurricanes are as brand-spankin’-new as they come, returning zero minutes from 2025, all while led by a first-time head coach in Jai Lucas. That sort of novelty is already stressful enough; now throw in the fact that the Canes are currently walking a tightrope right along the tournament’s cut line, with a metric profile (40 résumé, 41.7 quality) about as bubble-some as can be. If there’s a hair to be split in determining who’s in and who’s out, the committee’s gonna split it. And prior to Tuesday, Miami’s team sheet featured a massive gaping hole in the lack of a single victory against anybody ranked higher than 66th in NET. Not ideal! But with Tuesday’s triumph over NET #26 North Carolina now in hand, the Canes can finally take a deep breath… at least for today. Gotta get back to the grind on Saturday at NC State.
California: California sighting! Those are rare! So rare, in fact, that I don’t think I’ve actually ever given the Golden Bears a proper writeup in Bauer’s Bubble Watch history, as 2017 was the last time that Cal was a genuine postseason contender. Savor this moment! And this isn’t some sort of ‘Make-a-Wish,’ off-the-page-in-a-week kind of bubble blurb either; Mark Madsen’s Golden Bears look to be in this thing for the long haul, given a 4-5 Quad 1 record that includes wins vs. North Carolina, at Miami, and against UCLA in San Francisco. Good stuff! That said, the Bears are still as bubbly as it gets; an 0-2 mark in Quad 2 for a total Q1/2 output of 4-7 isn’t pretty, and results metrics just under 50, paired with predictive numbers pushing 70, make for little reason to breathe easy. But it’s just nice to be included for once, ya know? Anyway, a serious Cal postseason case starts with a Quad 1 win at non-tournament-team Syracuse on Wednesday night. Can you handle that?
Virginia Tech: Things were looking pretty good for Virginia Tech for a while there; I’m not so sure about that now. Hokies fans are still waiting for a breakthrough in year seven under Mike Young, whose VT teams have almost always been good enough to breach the bubble conversation but have never really done much damage beyond that. Surprise, surprise—2026 is more of the same. An 11-2 opening to the season, followed by a New Year’s Eve rivalry win over Virginia, got the Hokies right into the mix. It’s been downhill since then, though; VT is just 4-6 in their other ACC contests and a putrid 2-7 against the topmost quadrant, while also lacking any punchiness in the victories they collected from that 11-2 non-conference start. All that, plus the road ahead is brutal—starting Wednesday night, Virginia Tech alternates home and road contests the rest of the way, each road game offering the Hokies less than a 30% chance of victory (per KenPom), and each home game offering very little opportunity to build up the résumé. I’d be awfully tired of finishing the season on 19 wins if I lived in Blacksburg.
Stanford: The ACC REALLY had to pick this year of all years to be great again, huh? Back in early January, this season was shaping up to be a major step forward for Stanford, who hasn’t gone dancing since 2014. The Cardinal were 14-4, their résumé metrics were inside the cushy 30s, they already had FOUR Quad 1 wins after knocking off North Carolina… Life was peachy keen! Then Chisom Okpara was ruled out for the rest of the season following an injury sustained in Stanford’s loss to Virginia. In the time since that announcement, Stanford has gone 1-5, the bottom has fallen out on their metrics, they’re still stuck at four Quad 1 wins while sporting nearly as many Quad 3 losses (three), and the Cardinal’s hopes of an at-large appear to be marginal at best. If we’re invoking the “West Virginia clause” and judging a team based on what they’ve done after permanently losing a key player, then the Cardinal are firmly cooked. It’s a shame, ‘cuz Kyle Smith is a hell of a coach, and there’s no doubt that he’s got Stanford on the right track for the first time in a long time. But 2026 just doesn’t look to be the year. Alas.
BIG 12
I’m getting shades of 2021 with this year’s Big 12. If you don’t quite get what I mean, think way back when to the olden days of five years ago, back before Pacific Coast teams played in the Atlantic Coast Conference, when NBA players weren’t allowed to come back to college. (Oop.) The 2021 Big 12 was a thing of beauty. Ten teams, seven of ’em surefire selections, three of ’em nowhere close to the postseason, and no bubble bunch in sight. It was glorious! As far as single-season conferences go, it’s the easiest I’ve ever had it in Bubble Watch. And in 2026, the Big 12 is shaping up to be something similar: five first-edition locks, two more floating comfortably in the 6-9 seed range, and a couple bubble stragglers who look just as likely to fall off the page entirely as they do to hang around for the long haul. And that’s it! Just takes me back to the good ol’ days!
But seriously—the 2026 Big 12 is as top-heavy as they come. It’s for that reason that this league ranks behind the SEC and Big Ten in KenPom, even if the Big 12 is just as if not more likely to land five or six protected seeds come judgment day than its power conference counterparts. The Utahs and Kansas States of the world have essentially become sacrificial lambs so that the top of the league may feast. Good strategy to get more bang for your buck come tournament time? We’ll see.
Nevertheless, there’s a lot of great hoops being played in America’s heartland, and it starts with Arizona. (Is Tucson in the heartland?) Little did we know that a monster victory on opening night over defending champion Florida would merely be the tip of the iceberg for this Wildcats squad, who, three months later, made it to the hallowed ground of Phog Allen Fieldhouse before becoming the final unbeaten P5 team to fall. Wearing a résumé drenched in top-3 ranks with quality wins here, there, and everywhere, Arizona is in prime position to nab the #1 overall seed when it’s all said and done. Granted, they’ll still need to navigate a daunting second half of a conference slate, featuring most of the Big 12’s top half. But the Cats have gotten through the first 24 games mostly unscathed—what’s stopping them?
Or, rather, who’s stopping them… Houston could very well be that team. At 22-2, three baskets are all that separate the Cougars from an unbeaten record themselves. Big difference is that a slightly underwhelming non-con (ranked 109th nationally) means that Houston is presently without the uber-high-end victories found all over Arizona’s profile, the Cats doubling the Coogs in Quad 1A. So Houston may not be able to nab its fourth straight 1 seed without taking down UA in H-Town on Feb. 21, but that’s for that “Bauertology” guy to figure out. Here at Bauer’s Bubble Watch, it’s all the same to me! Might as well just hand Houston a preemptive lock every year so long as Kelvin Sampson is running the show.
Joining Houston as a first-edition lock for the fourth consecutive year is Iowa State, an unthinkable prospect just five years ago, following a disastrous 2-22 overall, 0-18 conference season. But T.J. Otzelberger has done miracles in Ames, now primed to lead the ‘Clones to their fifth NCAA Tournament in as many tries behind the explosive play of all-around wonder Joshua Jefferson (second in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings), as well as Iowa State lifers Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic, the latter of whom has connected 93 times on 180 attempts from 3-point range for a mind-boggling season clip of 52%. Yeah, you’re gonna win a lot of games when can splash from deep that effectively for that long.
Of course, there’s also Kansas, destined to be Big 12 royalty until the heat death of the universe. No fair that the Jayhawks get to have both top-tier transfer play from the likes of Melvin Council and Tre White, AND the single most exciting player in college basketball in freshman phenom Darryn Peterson. (That is, when Peterson is actually able to get out on the court. He may or may not have the soft tissue of a small Victorian child.) Evidently, the Jayhawks don’t even need him to be elite, becoming the first team to fell Arizona all year while the future NBA lottery pick sat on the sideline with the flu. That’s a real breath of fresh air after last year’s muddy mess in Lawrence, in which KU had to settle for their first non-protected seed ever in the Bill Self era. Given that the Jayhawks have already surpassed their Quad 1 win total from a year ago with a month to spare, I think it’s safe to say that classic Kansas is back.
Rounding out our list of Big 12 opening-day locks are the Red Raiders of Texas Tech. The only team in the nation to notch a win against two of the NET top-4 (Duke and Houston), I was initially hesitant to give Tech the green light following back-to-back losses to UCF and Kansas, the latter in Lubbock. But all is right with the world after a get-right win in Morgantown, and no team with two victories of that caliber should ever have to worry about missing the Madness. Count on the Red Raiders to somehow land a 3 seed like they always do, at least since their championship game appearance in 2019. The Texas Tech program has come a hell of a long way in under a decade.
And perhaps you’ll notice one particularly notable omission from this first go-around of Bubble Watch: Baylor is nowhere in sight. Been a tough season in Waco, as the Bears blew a 12-point lead to BYU on Tuesday to fall to 3-9 in conference play and 13-11 overall. They’re not completely dead—far too many opportunities remaining in a quality-win factory like the Big 12 to say that—but, boy, are we a far cry from the Baylor team that cut down the nets in Indianapolis just five years ago. Sad to see.
BYU: I was going to ask if somebody could plug please BYU back in again, but the Cougars seem to have done that themselves on Tuesday night. BYU’s drop over these past few weeks has been rather precipitous; losses to Arizona, Kansas, and Houston aren’t remotely bad in isolation (and even a 7-point defeat in Stillwater can be forgiven under the right circumstances), but when all bunched together over the course of four consecutive games, you can see how a projected 3 seed sinks like a rock to the 6/7 lines in no time. Playing 5-on-3 every night surely is not a good thing, as anybody on the roster not named Richie Saunders, Robert Wright, or AJ Dybantsa has yet to step up in a consistent way. Still, the production of those three alone has been enough sometimes, as we saw in Tuesday’s comeback win in Waco, the trio combining for 81 of BYU’s 99 points. That’ll stop the bleeding for now… but can it be sustained? Remains to be seen.
UCF: You just gotta love the teams that make you pull your hair out by having a Pacific Ocean-sized gap between their résumé and quality metrics. Such a fun time trying to figure out their seed! Yippee! Yeah, UCF is that team this year. By all accounts, the Knights’ résumé is rock-solid: 30th in WAB, 26th in KPI, four Quad 1 wins including critical home victories over Kansas and Texas Tech, as well as a supremely helpful true road win in non-conference at Texas A&M. But then there’s the not-so-eensy-weensy problem that KenPom, T-Rank, and BPI all agree that UCF is actually about the 53rd best team in college basketball. Luckily for Johnny Dawkins and company, the predictive metrics aren’t nearly as important as the actual wins and losses when it comes to just getting into the field—hence why UCF lands in “safe” territory today. But I wouldn’t be too keen on their projected seed, not unless they can start to win some games by bigger margins. (Unless the NCAA pulls a 2025 Memphis and completely ignores the warning signs that this team is not quite as good as the résumé indicates. Then, by all means, keep winning by one or two buckets every night before getting bounced in the 5-12 game. Hey, there are worse ways to go.)
Oklahoma State: Well, would you look at that—looks like UCF isn’t alone when it comes to Big 12 teams with enormous gulfs between what the résumé numbers and the efficiency numbers say! If you’re only looking at the former, then the Cowboys don’t fare so badly; a 48.7 metric average isn’t amazing by any means, but it’ll get you into bubble talks almost every time. Then you look at everything else. 69.3 quality metric average. 1-6 Quad 1 record. 1-5 road record. 289th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule. For every feel-good home win over BYU or surprisingly handy November victory over Texas A&M, there’s been an equal result in the other direction, whether it be a 37-point stomping at Arizona or rivalry game loss to non-tourney-team Oklahoma. Frankly, there are a lot of holes in this team sheet that a single number like WAB or SOR cannot adequately address. It’s too bad, ’cause the Cade Cunningham COVID year has been OSU’s only tournament appearance in the past nine seasons, and the way things stand presently, that doesn’t seem like it’s going to change. Saturday’s bubble battle against TCU in Stillwater suddenly feels extremely important.
TCU: And about TCU—the Horned Frogs’ profile is cut straight from the cloth of the bizarro world. Things could not have possibly started worse for the Frogs this season, as they fell to NET #221 New Orleans at home on opening night. (There are bad losses, and there are baaaaad losses. This one is the latter.) But Jamie Dixon and company have somehow stayed afloat in the months since, notching W’s over Florida, Wisconsin, and most recently Iowa State in a fistfight of a game that TCU very nearly blew, if not for a 12-0 run over the final two minutes and change. Toss in a random Quad 3 loss to Notre Dame in December, and the Horned Frogs have officially etched both a victory and a defeat in all four quadrants. (In bracketology terms, we call that hitting for the cycle.) An example of visually pleasing data, perhaps, but a real headache to sort out in the bracket-building sense. Two big road games on tap this week (at Oklahoma State, at UCF) that would go a long way for establishing some clarity.
BIG EAST
If the Big 12 is aiming for a repeat act of 2021, then the Big East must be dialing up its best impression of 2024: a dominant UConn team at the top, two other good groups well-positioned for tournament invites, one or two bubblers with an outside shot at a bid, and… that’s about it. And that’s not a very good thing for the Big East.
Well, it certainly is a good thing for UConn—they won the whole darn thing in 2024, riding a 14-1 conference start to the #1 overall seed and winning their six NCAA Tournament games by an average of 23 points. Sounds real good to me if I’m a Huskies fan, given how similarly this season has gone, with plenty of player parallels to make (Silas Demary to Tristen Newton, Tarris Reed to Donovan Clingan, Alex Karaban to Alex Karaban). I might just be tempted to purchase my plane tickets for Indy in April already.
But back to the rest of the Big East… just three tournament teams for the second time in three years? That’d be no bueno. And unless any of Seton Hall or Butler or Creighton or, god bless, GEORGETOWN can make a late-season statement here, that’s the likeliest reality that we’re facing. When every team not named UConn in this supposed power conference goes a combined 17-27 against the rest of the P5, you make it awfully hard on yourself to get any good, résumé-building wins inside of league play, ’cause there aren’t any good teams to build said résumés against. (Just ask the ACC.) I appreciate the Big East for doing its best to be the one P5 member still trying to push the classic college basketball tradition in this weird, changing world (long live the round robin), but it might be nearing time to take a good, long look in the mirror. Or, ya know, just get good.
St. John’s: Ordinarily, I’d be quite content to lock a team like St. John’s fresh off the heels of a thrilling victory over projected 1 seed UConn, becoming one of only two teams to nab the Huskies all year long—the other being the #1 damn team in the country—extending the Johnnies’ winning streak to nine games in the process. But here’s the thing: that UConn win wasn’t a cherry on top. It was kinda necessary. The Red Storm went a whopping 0-4 in their tests against tournament-caliber non-conference opponents, leaving them rather light on quality victories to show the committee. And in this year’s Big East, where you’re far less likely to land a résumé-transforming win than a résumé-shattering loss (as was nearly the case against Xavier on Monday), that’s a pretty scary prospect. All that said, my worries should be for naught. St. John’s has been humming since the first Tuesday of 2026, and I fully expect a lock to be in their future, likely one week from today.
Villanova: Case in point of the Big East’s weakness this year: Villanova is 19-5 and still has a ways to go before I’m comfortable calling them a lock! I don’t want to step on the toes of what the Wildcats have accomplished; I certainly did not expect Nova to snap a three-year tournament drought in Kevin Willard’s first season as coach, especially with no more Eric Dixon around to funnel everything into. But sole survivor Tyler Perkins and a strong cast of transfers have the Wildcats in good position to do just that. I say “good,” not “great,” as that’s all Villanova’s profile is: good. Every one of their metrics is hovering around 30th, and in missing each of their chances against Michigan, BYU, UConn in Hartford, and St. John’s at home, the Wildcats are winless in their four toughest games… though a 7-0 mark in their other Q1/2 contests assuages that to a degree. It all makes for a fairly tepid team sheet, somewhere in the 7-9 seed range, in but not decidedly so, which you simply would not expect from a Big East team that’s won nearly 20 games at this stage in the season. Take me back to the good ol’ days of 2011, please.
Seton Hall: No, Seton Hall, you were doing so well! If Villanova’s success has been seen as a surprise, then Seton Hall’s hot start was nothing short of shocking. Still fresh in the mind are the Pirates’ 7-25 record and final NET ranking of 209th from a year ago. Turns out, maybe you can’t turn a pumpkin into a Rolls Royce overnight, as Seton Hall’s 14-2 start to the season, one that features a supremely helpful win in Maui over NC State just before Thanksgiving, has rotted to a 6-7 outing in conference play thus far—a real reason to worry when you consider the “I’ve-only-mentioned-it-a-hundred-times-already” issue of the Big East not being very good this year. Given that they’ve lost six of the last eight and are now firmly outside the field in the majority of projections, I’m not seeing much reason to believe that the Pirates can right the ship into the calm waters of where they once were in late 2025. But opportunity remains in two critical games: at UConn (Feb. 28) and vs. St. John’s (March 6). Does Seton Hall have any more surprises left in store?
BIG TEN
Illinois at Purdue. Nebraska at Michigan. Michigan at Michigan State. Illinois at Nebraska. Illinois at Michigan State. Can we just talk about how many awesome heavyweight matchups we’ve gotten out of the Big Ten lately? And how they’ve delivered nearly every time? Whether it’s incredible season-long success stories, unreal freshman performances out of nowhere, or just good ol’ rivalry game drama to the point that the head coaches are beefing with each other, the Big Ten scriptwriters have been on one this winter. Take a bow, y’all.
Seriously though, I’ve had about as much fun watching Big Ten basketball this year as I can remember, at least since 2023, a.k.a., the last time my Nittany Lions were competitive. (I miss you every day, Jalen Pickett.)
So, let’s go ahead and dole out some locks to the B1G’s heavy hitters. First and foremost is Michigan, a nuclear weapon of a basketball team that has essentially built a permanent residence on the 1 line. Whatever bad stench was left by the end of the Juwan Howard days has been thoroughly deodorized by Dusty May’s brand of basketball, emphasizing stifling defense while also relying on portal pickups like Yaxel Lendeborg and Elliott Cadeau to make Michigan an offensive threat to be reckoned with in a way not seen since a young Hunter Dickinson still wore maize and blue. With top-2 metrics across the board and seemingly trading hands for the NET #1 spot with Arizona and Duke on daily basis, Michigan is as mint as they come.
Though, if there’s anyone in this league who may have something to say about the Wolverines’ so-called forever home on the top line, it’s Illinois. The Fighting Illini looked near-infallible before these recent losses in East Lansing and at home against Wisconsin, setbacks that do quell Illinois’ lofty season goals for the time being. But a 1 seed is still within reach given an already-impressive tournament résumé and the fountain of opportunity ahead (four straight Quad 1/2 games). That second chance against a Great Lakes State foe on Feb. 27 is circled on every calendar in Champaign.
Underrated on the list of excellent college basketball programs is Matt Painter’s Purdue, headed to its 11th NCAA Tournament in as many years. (Shh… We don’t count 2020.) No, the Boilermakers haven’t quite lived up to their preseason #1 expectations, but Purdue is still very much in the hunt for a conference crown—as evidenced by Tuesday’s massive win in Lincoln—with a ninth straight protected seed likely in their future… so long as they hold serve against a remaining slate of exclusively Quad 1 and 2 games. No pressure!
NEBRASKETBALL!!!! Apologies for my bluntness, but NEBRASKETBALL!!!! Far and away the most pleasant surprise of the 2025-26 season, Nebraska was hardly even on my radar as a tournament hopeful entering the year, let alone a potential 2 or 3 seed, what with the two biggest pieces from last year’s near-miss (Brice Williams and Juwan Gary) departed. But Fred Hoiberg’s got something cooking in Lincoln in year seven, with son Sam developing from nepo-baby to legitimate all-around threat, all while Pryce Sandfort, Rienk Mast, and Braden Frager wreak havoc on both ends of the court. And look—I know these losses to Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue might have sullied the mood just a little bit, but c’mon. Nebraska is still one of the 15 or so best teams in the land. Nebraska! It’s a shuckin’ good time to be a fan of the Huskers right now.
And Michigan State makes it five for the B1G lock counter, a team that has unfortunately gotten in its own way far too much for its own good (whether it be Jeremy Fears’ extremities or Carson Cooper’s mouth) but remains a really good basketball outfit regardless—one that finally possesses a victory (Illinois) worthy of the high-end résumé and quality numbers that the Spartans have been toting for some time. Tom Izzo and March Madness: college basketball’s version of death and taxes.
Iowa: Bennett Stirtz is that dude. If you’re like me, and you watched him play out of his gourd at Drake last season, then you already knew this. Same state, different school, same results; the man is hooping at all three levels (72% from the rim, 45% from mid-range, 40% from deep), while also averaging just shy of 40 minutes a night. Certified baller. That said, Stirtz can’t do it all by himself, try as he might. It’s that over-reliance on arguably the nation’s top guard that has gotten Iowa caught with its pants down a number of times in the Hawkeyes’ biggest games: losses to Michigan State, Iowa State, and Illinois, all instances where Stirtz was held in check. That’s created a rather noticeable rift between Iowa’s gaudy predictive numbers (21st in NET, 19th in KenPom, 20th in T-Rank) and half-baked résumé (29.3 metric average, 2-4 in Quad 1), though the gap has been closing ever since the Hawkeyes embarked on this six-game winning streak on Jan. 17. Keep it up when the likes of Purdue and Nebraska come to Iowa City, and we should be all good to go. Just give our boy Bennett a little more help while you’re at it, OK?
Wisconsin: Why the hell does Wisconsin look exceedingly average against 95% of teams they play, then go god-slayer mode the moment they step foot into the arena of a team vying for a 1 seed? You could very easily argue that no team in the country has two better wins than the Badgers’ 91-88 victory in Ann Arbor on Jan. 10 and 92-90 overtime triumph in Champaign on Tuesday night. Those two results alone may very well be enough for Wisconsin to coast the rest of the way to an easy March Madness invite, their eighth in ten tries under Greg Gard. I’m gonna hold up before declaring them an absolute certainty though; we’ve seen the bad Badgers rear their ugly head on more than one occasion (BYU, TCU, Nebraska, Villanova), and they’ve got an absolute gauntlet ahead of them with six more Quad 1/2 games, four of which are on the road. But if this giant-slaying act is the norm and not the exception, then what am I even worried about?
USC: Ya know, I’ve never really been big on the whole premise of giving teams leeway when injuries force players to miss time. There’s some sort of widespread belief among college basketball fans that your team in particular deserves preferential treatment because it’s had to deal with injuries. Listen, buddy: Every team deals with injuries. Every single one. I’m sorry that your leading rebounder was out for your team’s most important game against Roast Beef State or whatever, but that’s life! It happens! That said, if there’s one team that can actually gripe about injuries this year, it’s USC. You know that one character from that SpongeBob chocolate salesman episode? That one “every morning I break my legs, and every afternoon I break my arms” guy? That’s USC. Eight of their top-10 minutes getters have missed at least one game this year, three of them missing multiple, including the man that was supposed to be their go-to threat, Rodney Rice, who’s out for the year after requiring shoulder surgery. I mean, look at this graph. It’s grotesque. And the Trojans continue to win games for the most part anyway! It’s great! They’re certainly still on the bubble; you can’t put a team that’s 49th in NET, 33rd in SOR and WAB, and 1-4 in Quad 1 any higher than, like, a 9 seed. But the fact that they’ve gotten this far in the first place is worth commending. The Muss Bus rolls on.
Indiana: Don’t let the Hoosiers get hot! When it came to preseason expectations and actual results produced out on the court, no team saw a bigger delta than Indiana, sputtering to a 3-5 conference start and going 0-2 in the only games from their non-conference slate worth a damn. Was hiring Darian DeVries a mistake? Will Indiana ever escape this purgatory of mediocrity? Fret not, Hoosier faithful, for the best was yet to come. Indiana then proceeded to win five of the next six, toppling arch-rival Purdue in Bloomington, then outlasting UCLA in a double-overtime marathon out in Cali for two Quad 1A victories in a span of five days. Now, add to the mix a nail-biting home win over Wisconsin and a 41-point Lamar Wilkerson performance against Oregon (he may be the best pure scorer in CBB and no one seems to be talking about it), and Indiana’s tournament case has gone from dead in the water to nearly thriving. Well, that might be an exaggeration; at 4-8 in Quad 1/2 and averaging a rank of just 40th across the résumé metrics, there’s ample work to be done. But IU looks to be up to the task.
UCLA: If tournament résumés were built according to the number of times that your head coach has complained about something, then UCLA would be running away with the #1 overall seed. (I still think Mick Cronin is a good basketball coach, but, seriously, dude. Give it a rest.) Unfortunately for the Bruins, tournament résumés are actually built by winning basketball games, an exercise that UCLA hasn’t done nearly often enough, hence why they’re on the bubble. They didn’t exactly set themselves up for success from the onset, recording exactly zero victories of note in non-conference play, and now their entire tournament case is largely predicated on a load-bearing 2-point victory over Purdue in Pauley Pavilion on Jan. 20. Not exactly a compelling profile right now, but you could easily argue that it’s just a symptom of the Bruins’ back-heavy schedule; five of the final seven games are in Quad 1, and four of them are against the Big Ten’s upper tier. You think you’ve seen ol’ Mick complain too much? Oh, just you wait. We may reach levels of complaining never before seen on this earth.
Ohio State: One must imagine Ohio State happy. The college basketball equivalent of Sisyphus has been stuck in bubble purgatory just about ever since Oral Roberts put an early end to the Buckeyes’ 2 seed in 2021, with the transition from Chris Holtmann to Jake Diebler doing very little bring to the endless boulder-rolling to a halt. Each of the past two seasons, Ohio State has logged a résumé metric average in the low 50s, a quality metric mean right around 40, and a Quad 1 winning percentage of 35% or worse, resulting in the Buckeyes narrowly missing the field both times. So, where do Ohio State’s numbers stand in 2026? Take a wild guess. It’s just astonishing to see a program that has had the historic success of Ohio State (more Final Four appearances than any traditional Big Ten school, other than Michigan State) just kinda settle for this mediocrity. Four Q1 opportunities remain, including a prime non-conference chance against a top-20 Virginia, as do four in Q2. Put your back into that boulder, Bucks.
SEC
The SEC is dead, long live the SEC!
OK, so this is not the same thermonuclear warhead of a basketball league that sent 14 of its 16 teams to the tournament last March, a benchmark that may never be eclipsed for eons to come. (Or it could be eclipsed as soon as next year if the power conferences all decide to merge into one. Hey, not out of the realm of possibility these days.) But the SEC is still really good, guys. It’s still the top conference in KenPom. It still has the majority of its teams in postseason contention. And yet, the public perception of the SEC’s fall-off remains. Why is that?
Well, outside of a god-given right to detest the whole “It Just Means More” thing, the titans at the top of last year’s league are absent in 2026, most bracket projections capping this conference on the 3 line. That’s a far cry from a year ago, when the SEC squeezed six teams into protected seeds and jam-packed the top two lines in particular, accounting for FOUR of the top-six overall teams. And thus, I reiterate: We’re not dealing with the same infallible mega-monster SEC from a year prior. But this is still an excellent conference, one that could very well end up with the most bids of any when it’s all said and done.
Though, if there’s one team that’s still fully capable of a return to “titan” status, it’s the defending national champions. Florida admittedly took much longer to find its stride than Gator Nation would have hoped (that 1-3 record against Quad 1 competition in non-conference may cap their eventual seed), but seeing as how they’ve utterly dismantled the likes of Tennessee, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Alabama since the turn of the new year, it’s safe to say that nobody wants to see the Gators in their area of the bracket, especially when you consider their play-style, i.e., bullying you into a fine pulp on the interior via outlandish rebounding prowess and textbook defense. (That whole sequence by Rueben Chinyelu at the end of the first half against Bama is going to be shown in every high school locker room in the country.)
Also joining the list of SEC locks: the Vanderbilt Commodores! Go ahead and roll your eyes; I know that you think Vandy is a fraud. And given the fact that they just gave up 92 points in 74 possessions at home to an Oklahoma team that isn’t close to the bubble, I can’t blame you. But if there’s one thing that the ‘Dores collectively know how to do, it’s put the ball in the hoop. And when they’re firing on all cylinders, they’re as entertaining to watch as any team in the country. That explosiveness is what commanded their 16-0 start to the season, as well as a collection of metrics and quadrant victories still comfortably the range of a 4 or 5 seed, even if they’ve cooled off a bit in SEC play. A protected seed would be Vanderbilt’s first in 16 years… Tip of the cap to you, Mark Byington. (Something about these JMU coaches, man.)
Alabama: So… What to do with Alabama? ICYMI, Charles Bediako’s temporary restraining order to play for the Crimson Tide was revoked on Monday, meaning Alabama will be Bediako-less for the remainder of the season. Based on the language of the TRO, it seems unlikely that the NCAA can or will do any sort of sanctioning, such as vacating Bama’s wins with Bediako on the team. That’s all fine and dandy (well, sorta), save for the fact that the selection committee’s evaluation of Alabama will be based on the team that they take to the tournament. That’s an intentionally vague way of putting it. Does that mean that they put less weight on the five games that Bediako played? Does that mean that they throw out those results entirely? Hard to say. What I do know is that a résumé that currently tracks like a 4 seed with a record of 11-7 in Quad 1/2 looks a lot less dapper with those victories over Missouri, Texas A&M, and Auburn negated. For the sake of safety, let’s just wait and see what Bama looks like post-Bediako before confirming the Tide’s tournament spot. Or, if that sounds like baloney to you, then let’s just say that seven losses is too many to lock a team that still has eight games left to play. Yeah, let’s go with that.
Arkansas: Year two of the Coach Cal project in Fayetteville is going a lot smoother than year one. It’s easy to forget now after the Razorbacks’ memorable run to the Sweet Sixteen last March, but things were not going so swimmingly in January, as the Hogs stumbled to a 1-6 conference start, earning a debut appearance in the “bubble” section of Bauer’s Bubble Watch. Things got rolling soon after that, as John Calipari gave his old team the boot at Rupp, kickstarting Arkansas’ ascent to eventual tournament-bound team. (Funny how Kentucky repaid the favor at Bud Walton 364 days later.) No such late-season push is necessary in 2026, as diaper dandies Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas have needed no time to jell with the returning cast, netting the Razorbacks weighty non-con wins over Louisville and Texas Tech, and bursting out to an 8-3 start in the SEC, with Tuesday’s destruction of LSU in Baton Rouge showing the college basketball world what the Hogs are capable of when everything is clicking. Arkansas never got the official Bauer’s Bubble Watch lock last year; that clearly won’t be the case again.
Tennessee: Has Tennessee lost its identity? For the first time since 2020, the Volunteers are not one of KenPom’s top-5 most efficient teams defensively. Instead, they’ve tumbled all the way down the rankings to… 16th! Egads, it’s hideous! All jokes aside, this Tennessee team just feels different. Rick Barnes’ recent Vols squads have never really had a superstar freshman like Nate Ament through which the offense runs; Kennedy Chandler in 2022 might be the closest thing to it. And even on defense, they aren’t forcing you to miss every single shot you take (though they’re still pretty good at that), instead emphasizing winning the battle on the glass, preventing offensive rebounds—and especially gathering their own—better than any UT team of the past decade. Just a different vibe, y’know? Whatever the case, the Vols are still right on track to snag their eighth straight NCAAT bid, though a 25.0 résumé average after the loss at Kentucky does mean that their protected seed streak is in jeopardy. (Aha! I knew there was something different about them!)
Kentucky: Big Blue Nation, you never fail to entertain me. Every single time that the sky starts falling in Lexington, things immediately reverse course in the biggest way possible. An 0-2 start to SEC play featuring a tight home loss to Missouri: “Fire Pope! Get this fraud out of here!” Then, boom, five straight wins, including at hated rival Tennessee. Next, a bad shooting night at a very potent Vanderbilt team, resulting in a 30-point beatdown: “This is the worst Kentucky team since COVID! We’re missing the tournament!” Right on cue to nab a win at Arkansas over ol’ Coach Cal and finish off the season sweep of the Volunteers. It’s truly comedy! I can’t wait for UK to get blown out at Florida this weekend before dropping a stinker to Georgia on Tuesday, only to then win out the remainder of the regular season. The Kentucky Wildcats are an Abbott & Costello routine, perfectly designed to make you and I bust a gut… even though BBN doesn’t find the joke very funny. May the gag live on in perpetuity.
Texas A&M: Goodbye Buzzball, hello Buckyball! You’ve got no idea how refreshing it is to see a Texas A&M team that can actually make a shot from the field to save its life. The last time the Aggies ranked top-60 in both 2- and 3-point shooting? 2007. Yikes! That’s been a pleasant surprise, as has been the overall play of this team, as 14 of the 15 players on the roster are brand new to College Station this season. Bucky McMillan’s gotten them to come together quickly, roaring out to a 7-1 start in the SEC before running into hot-shooting Alabama and buzzsaw Florida. Perhaps Bucky didn’t expect his guys to be so good out of the gate either, given the 263rd-ranked non-conference schedule that the Aggies played, featuring exactly one win over a team in the NET top-120. Not great! But if the early results are any indication, then Texas A&M can surely collect its tournament résumé by doling out damage in conference play, already knocking off each of Auburn, Georgia, and Texas on the road (all Quad 1A), establishing themselves ahead of those three in the pecking order should it ever get dicey. Not that I think it will.
Auburn: OK, so Auburn was never going to be the same behemoth that won 15 Quad 1 games and made the Final Four last year. That was evident the second that Johni Broome and Miles Kelly and Dylan Cardwell and all them seniors left campus. But the Tigers have been solid nonetheless, even as the head coaching gig has been passed down the family tree. A group light on experience has stood its ground against a back-breaking schedule—second toughest in the country, in fact—nabbing pivotal non-conference victories over the likes of St. John’s and NC State, while also being the only team to get the Gators in Gainesville. But, like, they’ve also just lost a lot of games. Like, a lot of games. Like, 10 losses on the team sheet before we’ve even reached the midway point of February is kinda crazy for an at-large candidate. Kudos to Auburn for really challenging itself, but at 4-9 in Quad 1 and 2-7 in Quad 1A, their schedule may be a tad too challenging. And you already know that it doesn’t get any easier in the SEC; a trip to Arkansas awaits on Saturday.
Georgia: Back-to-back years with a bid for the Bulldogs? It hasn’t happened since 2002. But Georgia has much work to do before they can start to think about packing their bags for March. Much of the problem—as was the case with Texas A&M—stems from an atrocious non-conference strength of schedule mark of 309th. 309th! You almost have to be trying to end up with an NCSOS that poor. Meanwhile, the same electrifying start that the Aggies had in SEC play to make up for that hurdle has largely been absent for the Bulldogs, who sit at just 5-5 and have already lost three times at home. It’s not all bad; a late surge to beat Arkansas by 14 and a road win at Missouri are the reasons why UGA has put itself in a decent spot to eventually make the field in the first place. It’s just that a little more consistency could really go a long way. And, please, no more home losses, at least not for a while! Just do yourself a favor and take care of the next team that walks into Athens, OK? And who might that be? …Oh, Florida. Uh, yeah. Good luck with that.
Texas: It’s a good thing that Texas hired a coach who knows what it’s like to sweat, ’cause the Longhorns may be bubble-bound all season long. As this résumé stands, it looks eerily similar to the Texas team that was granted a spot in Dayton a year ago, much to the surprise of many a bracketologist: solid predictive metrics in the 30s and 40s but worrisome results metrics in the 50s, a record below .500 across Quadrants 1-3, and only in serious tournament talks due to a number of really nice high-end wins sprinkled in amidst all the losses. The Longhorns’ high-octane O is what’s powered them to some of those triumphs (102-97 over NC State, 92-88 over Alabama), while their porous defense and a horrendous tendency to foul on damn near every possession have gone to counteract much of this team’s success on the other end. Texas just needs to play cleaner basketball, plain and simple. Upcoming matchups against some of the league’s leakier offenses (Missouri, LSU) could be just what the doctor ordered.
Missouri: Speaking of Missouri… The Tigers’ tournament situation is not all that different from Texas when you break it down: meh résumé metrics, 5-7 record in Quad 1/2, a couple juicy wins (Florida, at Kentucky) helping to lift this profile… You get the picture. Why I’ve got the Longhorns ahead currently boils down to two reasons: they fare a whole lot better on the efficiency side (that includes a gap of 23 spots between the two in NET), and they actually played a challenging non-conference schedule, ranked 64th. Mizzou, on the other hand, possesses an NCSOS of 203, the marquee victory coming over… Minnesota I guess? Yuck. Fortunately, the SEC provides plenty of opportunities to make up for those non-con woes, with every single game between now and the SEC tournament landing in Quad 1 or 2. If Missouri can win its four remaining home games and at least be competitive in the four road games, that may very well be enough to reach the finish line.
OTHERS
Ah, the wonderful world of “Others.” Our very own sacred spot for both highlighting the mid-majors that have gone above and beyond the typical confines of their own conference, and also lamenting the fact that 26 out of 31 leagues in Division I get lumped together like a can of beans while the elites continue their power-grabbing, pushing the very sport we know and love to its brink. Think back to the good ol’ days of 2012. There was a time when twelve different conferences had multiple teams make the NCAA Tournament. Flash forward to 2026, and we’re facing a not-that-unlikely reality where the Power 5 are the ONLY five conferences to get more than one team into the dance. It’s not good, folks! Not good at all!
The best we can do here at Bauer’s Bubble Watch is grin and bear it, while simultaneously hoping for the best for the hodgepodge of standout squads below, if only for adding some spice to an otherwise bland, P5-flavored soufflé.
Of course, there’s nothing spicy about Gonzaga. Mark Few and friends haven’t missed March Madness since 1998 (before I was born!), and 2026 will be no different. Though there may be a couple questions about the Zags following a stunning loss at Portland—Gonzaga’s first defeat to an opponent outside the KenPom top-150 since 2010—one bizarro slip-up is not enough to sully a top-15 mark in all metrics but KPI and five Quad 1 wins, most of which came in the non-con against the likes of Alabama, Kentucky, and UCLA. The Bulldogs’ final year in the WCC will end the same way as the previous 27: with an appearance in the NCAA Tournament.
Interestingly, though, this is the first time that Gonzaga’s been named a lock in the initial Bauer’s Bubble Watch since 2023. Heck, they were even considered a bubble team to begin 2024 before rattling off nine straight victories near the season’s end to elevate all the way to a 5 seed. So… Gonzaga’s quote-unquote “return to form” includes a 40-pointing pantsing by Michigan and just their third loss ever in 50 games played against Portland? College basketball is truly one of a kind.
Also, R.I.P. George Mason. I had a whole writeup for them ready to go and everything, and then they went and lost at Richmond, who had previously not won a game in nearly a month. The dream is over. (At least it’s not the worst loss by a Patriots team this week.)
Saint Louis: What a feel-good story out of Middle America, man. The Saint Louis Billikens! Back and better than ever! When inseparable player-coach duo Robbie Avila and Josh Schertz, best known for making waves at little ol’ Indiana State, skipped to the Lou a year ago, things didn’t go as planned; Avila got banged up early on, the pieces around him never really came together, and Saint Louis’ sky-high expectations came crashing down to the tune of a run-of-the-mill 19-15 season. But patience is a virtue. And in year two of the Schertz-Avila ticket, the Billikens are reaping the benefits: 11-0 in Atlantic 10 play, 16th in NET, top-25 in nearly every important team-sheet metric, and 23-1 overall—they’re literally an insane missed-free-throw-into-wild-3-pointer buzzer beater away from being undefeated. And they’re so much more than Avila; five different guys on the roster average double figures, and—get this—the Billikens are #1 in the nation in both effective field goal percentage on offense AND on defense. That has never happened before in the history of KenPom dating back to its debut in 1997. Saint Louis isn’t just good, they’re GOOD good. Like, not make-the-tournament good. Win-multiple-tournament-games good. It must be cosmic redemption for Schertz, Avila, and the whole college basketball world getting robbed of seeing Indiana State in March Madness back in 2024. (Sorry, Sycamores. You’ll make it back someday.)
Utah State: When am I ever going to learn? Do not, under any circumstances, doubt Utah State! When I posted my preseason bracket way back on opening day, the Aggies were conspicuously missing. It wasn’t meant as a slight or anything; I just figured that the Mountain West may be in for a down year, what with half the league gearing up to go to the Pac-12 in the fall as the power conferences continue their conquest for every available postseason spot, and I worried that perhaps Utah State could be a victim of that with leading scorer Ian Martinez no longer in town. But second-guessing the Aggies is a fool’s errand. Outside of an 8-10 conference record in 2022, Utah State has won at least 12 league games and reached the NCAA Tournament every single season since 2019, notably doing it with four different coaches in that span. And at 21-3 overall with an 8-2 Quad 1/2 record and nearly every metric under 30, it sure looks like USU is off to the promised land once again. Craig Smith, Ryan Odom, Danny Sprinkle, Jerrod Calhoun… doesn’t matter. Utah State just wins, man. (And given that a few teams from Calhoun’s home state of Ohio may be looking for a new coach this offseason, the great cycle may need to start anew in Logan once more. Evidently, that’s no big deal.)
Saint Mary’s: No team in the NET era has ever received an at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament without a single Quadrant 1 win. This is bad news for Saint Mary’s, who, though presently in the field in the vast majority of projections, faces the possibility of possessing a goose egg in that all-too-important uppermost quadrant until the regular season finale. I’m not doubting that the Gaels could be the first to break that trend, given recent choices by the selection committee that seem to indicate that good résumé metrics are more valuable than good quadrant splits (just ask North Carolina). And in that regard, Saint Mary’s is in decent shape: 31st in KPI, 40th in SOR, 37th in WAB—all of which indicate that the brackets that have the Gaels in the field are indeed correct. But will those numbers hold up when teams in power conferences have more opportunities than SMC to strengthen their résumé down the line? The way I see it, there’s really only two courses of action here: Hope and pray every single day that that Thanksgiving win over Virginia Tech creeps back up into the NET top-50, or go out and beat Gonzaga when they come to Moraga on Feb. 28. Actually, forget what I said. Just do the latter.
Santa Clara: Is this finally the year for Herb Sendek? Ever since Sendek took the reins in Santa Clara in 2016, the Broncos have been pretty firmly the WCC’s third-best team (sometimes lending that title to San Francisco), but not once has it resulted in an NCAA Tournament berth. The school itself hasn’t been to the Big Dance since 1996, despite four straight 20-win seasons and five in the last six. Well, you can make that six out of seven now, as Santa Clara’s already up to 21 victories with a month left to play, presently tied with Gonzaga atop the WCC standings at 12-1. Assuming SCU takes care of business against Seattle on Wednesday night, Saturday’s rematch against the Zags in the Leavey Center looms large; winner has the inside track to a conference title. That’d be a real feather in the cap for a Broncos team currently lacking any flair (just a single borderline Q1 home win over Saint Mary’s) and still trying to scrub off the stink of that dreadful Quad 4 loss to Loyola Chicago just before Christmas. Sure would be a shame if the Ramblers’ singular good performance of the season is the reason that Santa Clara’s March-less streak extends another year.
Miami (OH): The last remaining undefeated team in Division I men’s college basketball: the Miami RedHawks! Raise your hand if you predicted this. OK, now put your hand down, you dirty liar. Miami is such an intriguing tournament case, especially in this era when we have more ways to measure team strength and success than we know what to do with. Simply put, the quality metrics do not like the RedHawks: 83rd in KenPom, 79th in T-Rank, 88th in BPI. The big contributor here is that Miami, in their 21 D-I games played to date, has frequently won by razor-thin margins against the 348th-ranked schedule in the land—18th easiest of all 365 teams. And despite that, the résumé metrics just don’t care! 48th in KPI! 35th in WAB! 25th in SOR! They recognize that going 21-0 is really, really hard to do, no matter the quality of the opposition. Will the selection committee make the same assessment? I’m not sure. They love their big, juicy wins, of which Miami has zero, having not played a single Quad 1 opponent all season and being extremely likely to never do so before season’s end. It makes for a fascinating quandary: How many times can the RedHawks lose between now and Selection Sunday and still get an at-large bid? I don’t know the answer for sure, but it ain’t a lot. Just keep winning, y’all. Just keep winning.
San Diego State: Hold on—you’re telling me that San Diego State is one of the best defensive units in the country while also struggling to put the ball in the cup with regularity? No way! I’d never believe such a thing! (This is my sarcastic voice.) Rosters may change, but Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs remain the same, for better or for worse. It’s been a whole lot of the former lately, as SDSU’s only two negative results since the calendar flipped to 2026 have been a controversial 1-point loss at Grand Canyon (not actually that bad, the Lopes have been a solid addition to the Mountain West) and a totally forgivable 5-point loss at league leader Utah State. But that lack of consistent offense really bit the Aztecs badly in non-con, when they put up a grand total of 99 points in absolute beatdowns at the hands of Michigan and Arizona. And don’t forget that extremely un-Aztec-like 108-107 double-OT home loss to Troy, destined to remain within the bottom two quadrants all year. SDSU’s gonna have to do this the old-fashioned way by blitzing through the MWC like usual. Massive three-game stretch at the turn of the month: vs. Utah State, at New Mexico, at Boise State—all Quad 1.
New Mexico: Am I seeing double? You’re telling me that there are TWO Mountain West teams currently situated in Last Four In/First Four Out territory with metrics floating around the high 40s and low 50s, a single Quad 1 win, a Quad 3 loss suffered during the third week of November, and exactly three Q1 games left to play? Shoot, I might as well as copy-paste San Diego State’s blurb here, change a couple words, and call it a day. Actually, no, because the Lobos are not the same defensive powerhouse as the Aztecs are, but they did at least put up a fight in their sole outing against the P5, losing by just 12 to Nebraska. (Definitely two different teams, got it.) Main reason I’ve got SDSU a skosh ahead—aside from their win over New Mexico on Jan. 17—is that the Aztecs have largely hit their stride in Mountain West play, while the Lobos have stuttered on occasion, most recently losing its second straight game at the Pit via Boise State season sweep. It could get out of hand quickly for the Lobos if Wednesday’s Quad 1 chance at Grand Canyon falls by the wayside. Take the result as a harbinger of things to come.
VCU: Mountains can crumble, oceans can dry up, the world can spin in the opposite direction, and the VCU Rams will still find themselves near the top of the A-10 standings. Truly incredible how resilient this program has been through coaching change after coaching change across the last 12 years or so, especially in the portal era when you may very well end up with a brand-new roster from the year prior. It’s a high standard of success in Richmond; each of the past six coaches at VCU have taken the Rams to the NCAA Tournament at least once, and Phil Martelli Jr. will try to become the seventh in year one at the helm, a season removed from a March Madness berth at Bryant. He’s got a couple things working against him, though, namely an 0-4 record in Quadrant 1 and losses in each of VCU’s four toughest non-conference games. But the Rams will still have a chance, so long as they take it nice and steady across the next three (at La Salle, at Richmond, vs. George Washington), before Friday, Feb. 20’s trip to Chaifetz Arena in St. Louis. That bout with the Billikens is VCU’s lone remaining opportunity in Q1 before the regular season expires. It’s about as “must-win” of a game as you can possibly draw up.