The first little morsel of that sweet Selection Sunday treat is just a day away.
Tomorrow, the NCAA Tournament selection committee will unveil its current top-16 teams as they presently stand on the first-4 seed lines, sorted into the four regions as they would be for the actual bracket.
In addition to whetting the appetite for the real thing a few weeks from now, this annual preview show serves as a helpful nudge in the right direction for bracketologists. Because selection committee members are always rotating, no two committees are going to have the exact same mindset from year to year. As such, this bracket preview tends a give a clue as to what measures and metrics this year’s committee values, helping to fine-tune the bracketology process as the weeks whittle down.
Sometimes the preview show can be a relief, other times it can be a real head-scratcher. But it always gets the gears turning by answering some burning questions. A few come to mind: How much will the committee value the NCAA’s WAB (Wins Above Bubble) metric in comparison to others? How will teams with significant injuries/vacancies on their roster be assessed? Will any principles be relaxed with the top-4 seed lines likely being dominated by just a few conferences?
We can only speculate until we get our answers tomorrow. For now, this is the top-16 that I’m predicting we’ll see:
I feel confident in the order of teams 1 through 3—the questions began after that. Here are some of the things I’m most interested in learning:
The final #1 seed: I’m picking Houston as the final 1 seed due to both résumé and efficiency metrics that would support it, in addition to it just making sense to send the Cougars to the South Region, which will play its Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games in Houston. But I could also foresee Iowa State on the top line if the committee cares enough about Tuesday’s victory over Houston in Ames; my guess is that they won’t, since it was a home game decided by three points, and the overall body of work is more important than a single-possession game. I also wouldn’t be stunned if UConn remained the final 1 seed, as they are still the fourth-best team per the résumé metrics with a collection of wins (at Kansas, neutral Illinois, neutral Florida) among the very best. I just figure that the Huskies landing outside of the top-10 in two of the predictive metrics will likely knock them down to the 2 line. And don’t be bewildered if Illinois is the final 1 seed! Although I think it’s very unlikely, they do have the NET ranking, quality metrics, WAB, and Quad 1A victories to justify it!
Where will Florida land?: Florida has played as well as any team in the country over the past month, now landing as a top-7 team in all three quality metrics. The problem for the Gators is that their résumé metrics are all still 13th or worse, due in part to them losing each of their biggest games in non-conference (Duke, Arizona, UConn). Will the selection committee take those results with a grain of salt and give Florida a 2 seed for turning the corner? Or will they hold those losses against them and give them a more modest 3 or 4 seed?
Texas Tech without Toppin: Texas Tech suffered one of the worst injuries of the entire college basketball season in Tuesday night’s loss at Arizona State, as leading scorer and rebounder JT Toppin has been ruled out for the year with a torn ACL. This is not only massive for Texas Tech’s prospects going forward but also for how they are valued looking backward. I would think a team with the Red Raiders’ metric profile while also carrying victories over Houston at home, Duke on a neutral court, and Arizona in Tucson should receive no worse than a 4 seed. But something tells me that the selection committee is going to slightly devalue those wins, as they all came with Toppin in the lineup. We’ve heard numerous times this year that the committee’s evaluation of a team will be based on the roster it takes into the tournament, so a Tech without Toppin—whose scoring output was the difference in all those victories—could be penalized significantly seed-wise. I’d be happy to be wrong and see the Red Raiders among the top-4 seed lines tomorrow, but I expect that the committee will have some sort of adjustment for the loss of Toppin built into their seed list.
Surprise inclusions: Who do I have out that could be in? I think Texas Tech is the easily the most likely “surprise” inclusion—it wouldn’t be that surprising at all based on their topmost wins. I could also maybe see Arkansas sneaking in based on their strong schedule numbers and good non-conference wins over Louisville and Texas Tech, but I also think it would be a stretch, given that every single metric the Razorbacks own is outside the top-16, alongside losing records in Quad 1 (6-7) and in road/neutral environments (5-6). Beyond that, I don’t really think anyone else is a realistic candidate to sneak into the top-16, though I do think both North Carolina and Louisville could receive a shout out in the group of 3-4 teams that the committee typically shares as “just missing the cut.”
Surprise exclusions: On the flip side, I could potentially see Alabama on the outside of the top-16, depending on how the selection committee chooses to evaluate the games played with Charles Bediako. Whether they count them as they lie or devalue them as if he were a player that briefly came back from injury has yet to be seen. Virginia is another team that could be a surprising exclusion. You’d think a 22-3 team with a 4-0 Quad 1A record should certainly be in. But the Cavaliers played a poor non-conference schedule (ranked 208th), have quality metrics all outside the top-16, and none of their four Q1A wins came against other protected seeds. Finally, I think the most likely of my predicted top-16 teams to be left out is Vanderbilt, even though I wouldn’t agree with it, as every metric but WAB is in the top-16, they have seven Quad 1 wins, and they’re 9-3 outside of Nashville. But you could also point to the Commodores being 1-3 in Quad 1A as a deficiency, and the fact that they got hammered so badly at Arkansas, another team vying for a top-4 seed, could be a contributing factor to the general idea that Vanderbilt isn’t really “top-16 material” in the committee’s mind, as unscientific of a conclusion as that may be.
So plenty of stuff to figure out! I’m looking forward to seeing the preview show unfold and applying what I learn going forward. In the meantime, let’s get to a new full bracket and seed list! As always, my automatic bids are chosen based on who leads the conference in my résumé metric BRCT. (Congrats to Stephen F. Austin on finally wrestling away the Southland from McNeese!)
Some other things worth noting: I now have Michigan projected as going to Philadelphia for their first- and second-round games instead of Buffalo. This is because the #1 overall team is the only team that gets to decide which subregional and regional sites it wants to go to; everybody else is determined based on driving mileage. Even though Buffalo is a bit closer to Ann Arbor than Philadelphia is, Michigan told the selection committee that Philly would be its preferred location. So if the Wolverines are #1 overall on Selection Sunday, expect them to go to Philly. If they aren’t, expect them to go to Buffalo.
And before you type an angry comment about 14-12 Auburn being in my field: I hear you. I just wrote in my most recent Bubble Watch that we haven’t had a team fewer than three games above .500 in the bracket since 2001. Why give a team that’s nearly lost half of its games the benefit of the doubt? Valid point. But you also have to ask yourself this: Who are you going to put in instead? Ohio State or VCU with their zero Quad 1 wins? San Diego State with their zero wins against the at-large field? New Mexico or Virginia Tech or Cal with all six of their metrics worse than Auburn? There’s just not a lot of good options right now. If there were ever a scenario for a team to break tradition, especially one that owns the #1 strength of schedule in the nation, has every metric inside the top-45, and won on the home floor of the defending national champions, it would be this one. And, again, I don’t think this problem is going to persist. If Auburn beats Kentucky on Saturday, they’ll be more comfortably in the field in Monday’s bracket. If they lose, they’ll be out entirely. It solves itself.
Enough talk—to the bracket and seed list! Looking forward to seeing how this compares with what the selection committee draws up in tomorrow’s top-16 preview!
