Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 2/25/26

Oh, the dreaded third edition of Bauer’s Bubble Watch. We’ve come to meet yet again.

The reason I say “dreaded” is because the week before the start of March is typically where Bubble Watch stagnates. At this point in the year, the early locks are already accounted for, the bubble remains a mess, and the teams in safe territory are only just barely inching their way up to total safety. This is all to say that there is typically very little activity on the Bubble Watch front in either direction at this juncture of the season. Looking back at Watches of years past, I only locked two teams in 2025’s third writeup of BBW, and just four in 2024 (though that was technically the Watch’s second edition since I started a week late). Kind of boring, right?

Not the case in 2026! Big movement is actually happening for once. As such, we’re handing out locks like candy—six of ’em this week, with at least one for each of the five power conferences. You get a lock! You get a lock! You’re all getting locks! And, hey, I get to play the villain and pop three bubbles too. Pop, pop, pop! Doesn’t it all just make you feel alive!?

(…These are things that I do to entertain myself. God, I’m such a nerd.)

Anyway, by the time we meet on the Bauer’s Bubble Watch front again next Wednesday, it’ll be March—the greatest month of the year—conference tournaments will have already begun, and Selection Sunday will be just 11 days away. Time is flying before our very eyes. Let’s see how the Watch sorts itself out in the final update of February:

The numbers in the safe category are rapidly dwindling. That’s how you know that March is near.

---

ACC

Is anyone beating Duke this year? Sorry to copy word for word from last week’s blurb on Michigan, a passage that now looks hilariously outdated just seven days later, but, my lord, do the Blue Devils look like they’re on a mission. After besting the Wolverines in the nation’s capital on Saturday—a game in which they never trailed after halftime—the majority of bracketologists pushed Duke up to the #1 overall seed for the first time in 2026. Would a letdown be in their immediate future, just as it was for Michigan after surpassing Arizona for the top spot? Nope—Duke instead went to South Bend and made Notre Dame look like a junior varsity team for 40 straight minutes, crushing them into a fine mist by a score of 100-56, the biggest home loss suffered in Fighting Irish history since 1898 when they lost to the Chicago First Regiment 64-8. (I hear that a very young Perry Ellis was on that team.) Like, good god. Something tells me that Duke really didn’t like losing at the buzzer in the Dean Dome earlier this month. That might be the final time we see them lose this season. (Now that I’ve gone and said it, they’ll almost certainly lose this week. The kiss of death never fails.)

As for new locks to dole out, welcome to the club, Miami (FL)! It’s been a meteoric rise for Jai Lucas and friends in year one, so much so that the Hurricanes were squarely on the bubble’s cut line back in Bauer’s Bubble Watch’s opening article. But the Canes have been near-perfect since then, the only defeat being a completely forgivable loss at Virginia by a single possession, as Miami’s latest triumph over a Florida State team that has been a scarier sight than any in the ACC over the past month has the Hurricanes up to 22-6 overall, 10-5 in Quadrants 1 and 2, and an impressive 7-2 in true road contests. I do have some concerns over metric numbers that continue to hang in the 30s in spite of this rapid ascent, but they’re not pressing enough to make me doubt a power conference team that’s found the W column four times as much as the alternative with only a week-and-a-half left to play. From 7-24 to 22-6, just like that. Well done, Mr. Lucas.

As for the not-so-fun part of Bubble Watch, it’s sadly time that we laid Stanford to rest. The Cardinal are now 2-7 since Chisom Okpara was announced out for the year, the only two victories coming against Georgia Tech and Boston College (a.k.a., two teams that have been eliminated since just about the opening whistle of conference play), with every metric but KPI now 68th or worse and a record of 10-11 across the first three quadrants effectively erasing the good of those four Quad 1 triumphs pre-Okpara injury. Maybe next year, Stanford. Pray that Ebuka Okorie likes Palo Alto enough to hang around until then.

NC State: Sometimes you lose by 41. Sometimes you win by 24. Sometimes you lose by 29. These are things that typically happen across the course of an entire 30-game season, and not in the span of two-and-a-half weeks during the most important résumé-building time of year. But who am I judge the Will Wade Wolfpack for providing some much-needed entertainment by flipping the sim to random every time they take the floor? Keeps you on your toes… I like that. What I don’t like is how difficult it is to seed NC State as a consequence. Sometimes, I remember that they’ve won 11 times in Quad 1/2, taking down both Clemson and SMU in their own building, maintaining a perch inside the quality metrics’ top 30. Other times, I remember that they lost a Quad 4 game at home to Georgia Tech, have no non-conference victories against other at-large teams, and remain shy of the top 30 in WAB and SOR. It’ll make your head spin if you try to make sense of it all one too many times. Irregularity or not, the Wolfpack are still far from concerns of missing the tournament entirely, as Wade has alluded to from time to time. Take out Notre Dame in South Bend this weekend—or better yet, upset Duke in Raleigh—and we should be all alright in the end.

Clemson: Uh… Clemson? You doing OK? You haven’t played good basketball in nearly three weeks now, and I’m really starting to get concerned. A big reason why the Tigers jetted out to a 20-4 record and 10-1 start in ACC play in the first place was the strength of their defense, as they held every opponent played from Jan. 10 to Feb. 7 (save for an OT loss to NC State) under 65 points. That strength has largely vanished across this four game-skid, as Clemson has allowed at least 10 made 3-pointers to each of Virginia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest, and Florida State, posting their three worst defensive performances of the season per Torvik’s measure of effective field goal percentage in the non-Duke games. Combine that with 54 points in 62 possessions against the Blue Devils, and you’ve got a team that hasn’t had both sides of the floor working in harmony since before the Super Bowl. Not exactly a recipe for success, especially when it doesn’t get much easier (vs. Louisville, at North Carolina) from here on out. We could very well see Clemson slip from near-lock to full-on bubble team in record time if they can’t get their act together this week.

SMU: Someone must have lit a fire under SMU. Good thing too, ’cause the remaining schedule is not exactly a cakewalk. Ever since an uneven 4-5 start to conference play, the Mustangs have largely been one of the ACC’s more reliable outfits, the only defeat being that 1-point heartbreaker in the Carrier Dome on Valentine’s Day. But the Miller/Edwards-facilitated offense has remained formidable just the same, taking out the trash by disposing of Pitt, Notre Dame, and now Boston College, while also landing a résumé-changer in last Tuesday’s late surge against Louisville. This extended burst of tenacity is going to have to last a little while longer, as three of the last four take place many miles away from Moody Coliseum, starting with this week’s trek out to West to fellow ACC newcomers California and Stanford, and finishing on March 7 at suddenly-flaming Florida State. Would the Mustangs’ metric ranks in the low 30s and so-so quadrant splits hold up with a 1-3 finish? Would be best not to test it.

California: Feel-good week for California, simultaneously popping the bubble of its arch-rival and picking up a Quad 2 win, the area on the Golden Bears’ team sheet in most need of addressing. I would have to imagine that a 5-8 Quad 1 and 2 record, 49.3 résumé metric average, and especially a 331st-ranked non-conference strength of schedule (barf) continue to place Cal on the outside looking in, but a win over Stanford is the first step toward getting on the right side of the bubble in time for March; taking down SMU as a home underdog on Wednesday is step two. If the Golden Bears can follow suit by cleaning up the rest of a theoretically easy slate (Pitt, at Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest), they’d instead be 7-8 in Quad 1/2, five of those victories landing in the upper half, and likely residing in the high 30s or low 40s résumé-wise. Would that be enough to overcome that atrocious non-con and dance for the first time in a decade? My gut says yes. Is a Cal team that the predictive metrics agree is actually about the 66th best in college basketball truly capable of pulling it off? My gut isn’t quite as sure.

Virginia Tech: Hard to see how Virginia Tech gets in without toppling either North Carolina in the Dean Dome on Saturday, or stunning Virginia in John Paul Jones in the regular season finale. The Hokies are just a bit underwhelming in every area where it matters—50th in WAB, 59th across the efficiency numbers, 2-8 in Quad 1, and empty in the department of meaningful non-conference victories. It wouldn’t be an appetizing résumé at all, if not for a 6-1 mark in Quad 2 and a road win at Clemson two weeks ago, albeit one that is quickly losing its luster. But a Quad 1A victory in the arena of an ACC elite changes everything, if only the Hokies can gather enough steam to pull off that kind of feat for the first time since besting the rival Cavaliers in a triple-overtime thriller in Blacksburg on the final day of 2025. Do that a second time in Charlottesville (or in Chapel Hill, take your pick), and we may see VT in the big dance just yet. (Oh, and you’ve also got to beat Boston College in Cassell Coliseum on March 3. But that one goes without saying.)

---

BIG 12

Crisis averted—we’re now safe to lock BYU. You might be scratching your head at this one after watching the Cougars get blasted off the floor of the Marriott Center on Tuesday night by UCF. But even a no-show like that cannot undo the good done on Saturday. For the first time all year, BYU found depth capable of replacing Richie Saunders’ scoring output, a torn ACL sidelining the star senior for the remainder of the season, as double-digit efforts from Kennard Davis and Mihailo Boskovic (alongside AJ Dybantsa’s typical 29 and 10) were enough to slay an Iowa State team that the selection committee had crowned as a 1 seed earlier in the day. That’s the Cougars’ first Quad 1A victory of 2025-26—the previous absence of which was a major knock on their profile—and it came without Saunders in the lineup. I guarantee you that the selection committee took notice of that very fact. (Between this and Texas Tech’s annihilation of Kansas State in their first game without JT Toppin, it seems like losing your star scorer to an ACL tear is the secret to unlocking sudden team success, no? Might have to workshop that one.)

And as for UCF… Ah, what the hell—get in here, guys! It’s been well-documented how poorly UCF has fared in the eyes of the predictive metrics all season long, each of NET, BPI, KenPom, and T-Rank holding the Knights far below where the results metrics they’ve cobbled together would put them. Well, UCF gave a big ol’ middle finger to Ken Pomeroy and the like on Tuesday night, thoroughly thrashing BYU in Provo, a game where the Knights entered as 11-point underdogs. This of course, came just days after UCF held on for dear life against a very bad Utah team. (There’s a reason that KenPom and all them don’t like you guys.) But based on the résumé, we’re safe to sign, seal, and deliver this thing. A team with home victories over Kansas and Texas Tech, alongside barnstorming W’s at BYU and Texas A&M, shouldn’t have to sweat a bit about whether or not their spot in March is secure. The Knights are dancing for the first time since 2019.

On the flip side, I’m putting the pin in the bubbles of both Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The Cowboys have been swooning for well over two weeks now, an uncompetitive loss at Colorado on Saturday officially serving as the death knell. Not even an overtime win over WVU on Tuesday night changes my mind; Oklahoma State is 1-8 in Quad 1, ranked 80th in NET, and 1-6 on the road, that one win coming against NET #118 Utah. They’re frankly not close to being inside the field. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, had put together a compelling case by this time last week, winning at UCF to bring both their metrics and quadrant splits up to reasonable bubble range. The iron was hot and ready for striking… and then WVU cooled down to the nth degree. Losing at home to Utah is simply unforgivable, and then both opportunities to get up off the mat against TCU and OSU went by the wayside. We’re unfortunately done here, unless the Mountaineers can win out the rest of the regular season.

And, boy, I was damn close to making room for Cincinnati on this week’s Watch, the Bearcats looking very much alive after dominating Kansas—in the Phog of all places—to win their fourth straight. But I have to put a lid on their at-large case for now after coming up short at Texas Tech; a 15-13 overall record, 63.7 résumé average, 2-10 clip in Quad 1, and hideous Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan would likely keep the Bearcats from anything greater than their name being mentioned in passing in the selection committee discussion room. But if they can finish off the last three games in flawless fashion… I’ll certainly be open to reassessment.

TCU: I continue to rub my chin and say “hmm” every time I open TCU’s team sheet. The good is very good—wins over Florida and Iowa State. The bad is very bad—losses to Notre Dame and New Orleans. And everything else? Right smack dab in the middle: 47.0 résumé metric average, 52.3 quality metric average, and even a perfectly middle-of-the-road record of 8-8 across Quad 1 and 2 games. They’ve got to be just in or just out, no two ways about it. And despite the ugly losses and somewhat milquetoast metrics, I tend to lean toward the former; two wins over NET top-10 teams, paired with a top-50 road win (Baylor) and top-35 neutral-court win (Wisconsin) should be enough to slot the Horned Frogs into Dayton for the time being. And the fact that they’ve successfully fended off other members of the Big 12’s periphery bubble cast (Oklahoma State, West Virginia) in recent weeks only reinforces that line of thinking. Keep it up by disposing of Kansas State on Saturday, so I may continue to rub my chin and say “hmm” for a little while longer.

---

BIG EAST

Soooo… I guess I gotta lock Villanova, right? All I requested from the Wildcats last week for lock-dom was that they keep it competitive against UConn. They did, making it just a 2-point game at halftime… Until they didn’t, trailing by as much as 21 late… Until they did again, losing by just 10. Not exactly instilling a whole lot of confidence, huh, guys? But, whatever, the metrics are in a good enough spot, they’re 9-5 in Quad 1/2 despite being 0-4 against top-of-the-line competition, and that neutral-court overtime win over Wisconsin from just before Christmas has aged like a fine wine. Also, like, we’re not getting just two Big East teams into the dance. There must be some cosmic law of the universe somewhere that forbids it. Villanova will be there too, as lukewarm as I feel about the state of their profile as a whole. Kindly beat Butler on Wednesday so I don’t have nightmares about this decision.

Seton Hall: Seton Hall is cheating death. How on earth a team can lose at home to DePaul and then go for 0-for-18 from deep against Georgetown and still remain on the bubble is beyond me, but here we are. (Thank god for the Hoyas making just 15 field goals in the span of 40 minutes, or the Pirates would be popped ten times over.) It’s pretty obvious that SHU is on the outside of the field looking in; the only reason I’m willing to hear out their case at this point is because of what lies due ahead: two absolute game-changers in a visit to UConn and a rematch with St. John’s in Newark, as well as a Q2 bout at Xavier that could give the résumé a minor boost. 2-1 seems like the bare minimum to keep this bubble inflated; I think 0-3 is a far more likely outcome. Prove me wrong, Pirates! Preferably as soon as Saturday in Storrs. Outside of the emergence of a bid thief in the conference tournament, the Big East’s hopes at being more than a three-bid league rest squarely on your shoulders. Lord have mercy.

---

BIG TEN

A deal’s a deal, Wisconsin. Welcome to lock status. The Badgers admittedly lack the traditional marks of a February lock, as no single metric on their team sheet ranks better than 24th, nor do they possess a heaping total of Quad 1 wins (just five) to make up for it. But they beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. They also beat Illinois in Champaign. Based on the selection committee’s placement of Iowa State and Texas Tech in Saturday’s top-16 preview, it’s pretty apparent that road wins against the top of the bracket are going to get you far in this life, and no team in the nation can claim to have two better road wins on their ledger than the Badgers. Wisconsin is in, no matter what, even if they were to do something silly, like lose both legs of this upcoming road trip to the Pacific Northwest. (Personally, I would advise against doing that. Just my two cents.)

Beyond the Badgers and an Iowa mired in ennui, it’s getting pretty ugly down in Big Ten bubble-land. Buckle in.

Iowa: It’s frustrating, man. There is obviously a very good and very capable Iowa team hidden somewhere underneath the fog on this team sheet, if only it can stick its head out of the mist for more than a fleeting moment. Last Tuesday’s win over Nebraska, the Hawkeyes’ first against a team in the upper portion of the bracket, looked to be a pivot point; even when Iowa’s offense got stuck in the mud, their defense bailed them out in an efficient performance not seen since the latter half of 2025. Corner turned, right? Nope—the Hawkeyes went right back to their wicked ways, leading for a while in Madison on Sunday before being outscored by 14 in the second half, posting the same poor defensive numbers seen in the prior losses to Maryland and Purdue, with nobody other than Bennett Stirtz making a noticeable impact on the box score (tell me if you’ve heard that one before). My heart says that Ben McCollum’s crew is more than competent enough to get out of this muck and stick it to others the same way that the Big Ten’s elite has. But the longer that Iowa hovers around 35th in the résumé metrics and 3-7 in Quad 1, the less I believe it. An unenthusiastic lock in a week or two seems to be the most apparent course of action. Sigh.

UCLA: Boy, Mick Cronin must really hate traveling. The man has whined about UCLA’s frequent visits to the American Midwest as a member of the Big Ten more than his fair share (big shocker there), and his Bruins have largely followed suit, losing every single game they’ve played outside the Pacific Time Zone this season, save for Jan. 14’s victory in State College. That’s a road/neutral record of 3-8 for those keeping track at home. But back in LA? The Bruins can do no wrong; a double-overtime defeat to Indiana is their only loss in Pauley Pavilion, as UCLA clawed back from 23 down to stun Illinois at the buzzer on a sensational drive to the cup by Donovan Dent, following up that performance by handling crosstown rival USC with relative ease. (If the entire NCAA Tournament were played within the vicinity of Westwood, California, I might just pick the Bruins to go all the way.) That inclination to show out at home and go AWOL on the road might keep a lid on UCLA’s seed, but two top-10 victories and all metrics but KPI ranking 41st or better should have the Bruins on the right side of the bubble… at least until they get stomped in Minneapolis on Saturday, if prior trends hold true. Hey, the onus is on you to break the cycle.

USC: To put it lightly, USC has had about as bad of a week as a bubble team can possibly have. The Trojans may have legitimately just fallen from a 9 or 10 seed to out of the field entirely in the span of only seven days. That’s pretty hard to do, ya know. It started with getting curb-stomped at home by Illinois last Wednesday; not ideal, though it’s not the end of the world either. The Illini are a really good team. Losing at home to Oregon, however, is extremely problematic. The Ducks have been a free win in conference play for every team not named Maryland and Penn State; you simply cannot let them walk into your own arena and get the best of you. And the beatings didn’t stop on Tuesday night, as the Trojans took the bus across town to UCLA, only to get spanked by their rivals to the tune of a 19-point drubbing. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad! Every metric is now 45th or worse, the Quad 1 record stands at 2-7… It’s gotten real ugly in no time at all. You almost certainly have to knock off Nebraska in the Galen Center on Saturday at this point to get back into the bubble’s good graces, if not just to stop the bleeding.

Indiana: So it turns out that firing Mike Woodson for the hot, new young guy has enhanced the Indiana program’s fortunes by approximately 0%. This is just what Hoosiers basketball is supposed to be now! Accept your fate! I wrote last week about how the entire Indiana tournament case was supported by two—maybe three—big wins: at UCLA, vs. Purdue, and vs. Wisconsin, if you consider that third one “big” enough. A week later and that has not changed; the Hoosiers got stomped by 29 in the rivalry rematch in West Lafayette, then proceeded to lose at home to 12-16 Northwestern. Even if there was a huge missed foul call at that game’s conclusion, you simply cannot be putting yourself in that scenario in the first place. As it stands, Indiana is 2-10 in Quad 1, 2-1 in Quad 2, and possesses an out-of-conference strength of schedule in the 200s with no victories of serious note. I expect the other brackets that have somehow kept Indiana in the field will be turning coat here shortly. (I kicked IU to the curb in Monday’s update. I’m ahead of the game, baby.) If the Hoosiers can’t rebound by beating Michigan State in Bloomington on Sunday, that might be a wrap.

Ohio State: Bruce Thornton… you deserve so much better than this. In the modern landscape of college basketball where money is king and loyalty can be lost at the drop of a bag, Thornton has stayed true to his school for four long years, becoming a Columbus icon by accruing over 2,000 points in scarlet and grey, moving into second place all-time in the Buckeyes record books amid a 32-point outburst in East Lansing (his fourth straight game of 20+), as his team lost their ninth Quad 1 game in as many tries. (But wait—that win at Northwestern is Quad 1 now! That fixes everything, right? No? Oh.) Indeed, it seems that Ohio State has been quite content to reward Thornton for his faithfulness by residing in bubble hell for the entirety of his college career, not once breaking through to give Bruce his overdue chance to shine in the big dance. If it holds, he’d be the only Buckeye in their top-10 career scoring leaders to never play in the NCAA Tournament. And that would be a damn shame. Two Q1 games remain, both this week: at Iowa, vs. Purdue. Find a way, Bucks. For Bruce’s sake.

---

SEC

For as much fun as I’ve had poking at Kentucky, their maybe-too-inconsistent play style, and their definitely-too-crazy fan base over the course of this column, the lock was always an inevitability. I never really had any doubt that a Wildcats team who bested St. John’s and Indiana in non-conference, stumped Tennessee in both Lexington and Knoxville, and handed Coach Cal an L in his new home for good measure, would go on to reach total tournament safety. Would it look a little ugly if Kentucky lost each of the last three against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Florida, heading to the SEC Tournament with an 18-13 record and six losses in the last seven? For sure. But would it push them to anything lower than, like, a 9 seed? I don’t think so. Big Blue Nation, this is your official cue to let yourself be at ease. (Like that’ll ever happen.)

Georgia: If you could somehow harness the swing of emotions surrounding Georgia over the past month into renewable energy, you could probably power a small city. From a huge win at Missouri, to losing five of six, to beating Kentucky in Rupp and putting up an offensive clinic against Texas, few teams have had as volatile a 30 days as UGA, and their projected seed (8/9, to 11/Last Four In, to 8/9 again) has followed suit. Things are looking pretty solid now for a Bulldogs bunch situated just above the bubble—with 10 Quad 1/2 wins and nearly every metric south of 40, Georgia should be OK to coast through these final two weeks, taking predictable losses to Vanderbilt and Alabama and earning predictable wins over South Carolina and Mississippi State. Of course, asking Georgia to be predictable after the month they’ve had is probably a fool’s errand. Just go 2-2, doing everything in your power to keep that 302nd-ranked non-conference SOS away from the cut line, and back-to-back bids for the first time since 2002 ought to be a go.

Texas A&M: Back on board the Bucky bus. Though it’s become apparent that Texas A&M’s 7-1 conference start was a bit of fools’ gold, the Aggies losing in each of their four games against the ranked SEC squads they’ve played to date, this is still a good basketball team—one that’s picked up a rather helpful penchant for winning on the road against the league’s middle and lower half, taking down each of Auburn, Texas, Georgia, and now Oklahoma while wearing the visiting jerseys. The résumé metrics remain rather confusingly low, averaging to a rank of 43rd despite three Quad 1A victories, all outside of College Station. As such, I can’t really place the Aggies any higher than just outside the bubble’s grasp, but I don’t really think there’s much reason to fret about whether or not A&M is in position for a bid (they very much are). I won’t think there’ll be any reason to fret if the Aggies can break their 0-4 spell against the league’s locks by knocking off Arkansas in Bud Walton on Wednesday night. Guess we’ll find out if the Bucky bus has enough gas for that.

Texas: I’ve lamented before how Texas’ impressive offense has more often than not been counteracted by its own defense, most commonly in its horrible tendency to foul. Well, if the alternative is allowing the opponent to shoot 62% from two and 55% from three, then by all means, foul away! So, yeah, not a very good performance on that end of the floor in Saturday’s defeat at Georgia. But it was the Longhorns’ first loss in nearly a month, a period of time in which they’ve built up enough goodwill metrically (45.7 résumé, 36.3 quality) and especially in the quadrants (5-7 in Q1) to earn their keep as a bubble team on the better half of most brackets. But we’re far from out of the woods; Wednesday’s invitation of Florida to the Moody Center kicks off a three-game stretch that could make or break Texas’ tournament case, as visits to Texas A&M and Arkansas directly follow. You’d really like the Longhorns to win at least one of those three games, else they emerge 17-13 heading into the finale against Oklahoma and likely needing to make up ground in the SEC tournament. I’d like to avoid a repeat act of Texas’ bubble antics from last year, thank you very much.

Missouri: ‘Member when I said in Week 1 of Bauer’s Bubble Watch that Missouri can probably secure a tournament bid if they just win their remaining home games? That prospect is looking more and more likely with each passing second. Beating both Vanderbilt and Tennessee in the span of a week will certainly play, even with a loss in Fayetteville on Saturday sprinkled in. With those victories in hand, Mizzou has now beaten four of the SEC’s six locks, and they’ll get a second chance at making it five in the final game of the season when Arkansas makes the return trip to Columbia. Add in that crucial W in College Station on Feb. 11, and I think the Tigers are on track to do enough in conference play to make up for the lack of anything worthwhile against non-con opposition. Heck, I think they’ll even manage to clear Dayton by a good margin if this just-win-at-home pattern continues. They can basically make that notion a near-certainty by breaking the trend and winning in Starkville or Norman this week.

Auburn: OK, so instead of “taking care of business down the stretch,” as I specifically requested last week, Auburn is going to push this thing to the limit. Fine with me; it’s your tournament spot to lose, not mine. My job is just to tell it as it is. And after a 91-79 loss at Oklahoma on Tuesday night, the Tigers are now 15-13 and presently trying to earn an at-large bid in a way that has not been done in 25 years, by being fewer than three games above .500. (They would be right at .500 if not for a ticky-tacky foul call against Kentucky in Saturday’s late escape against the Wildcats.) Win at Florida and #1 strength of schedule be damned, I can only afford so much leniency to a team that is testing the bounds of history night in and night out. Home wins over Ole Miss and LSU this week simply must happen; assuming they can manage that, the Tigers will be 17-13 upon heading to Tuscaloosa for the SEC finale. Win that game, and we’ll never have had any reason to worry in the first place. Lose that game, and at least one victory in the conference tournament is probably required. These are the games you’ve chosen to play, Auburn! Play them or get burned—the choice is entirely yours!

---

OTHERS

Two weeks in a row with no new locks out of the Others category. I reiterate: This! Is! Not! Good! Longtime Bauer’s Bubble Watch readers should remember the golden days of this column, back when as many as 10 different conferences had their own sections—Pac-12, American, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, you name it. Even with teams being more categorically spread out, we’d still see a new lock christened out of “Others” land at least every two weeks. Now, all the non-P5 teams are grouped into one big amalgam, and while the P5 leagues are locking teams left and right, we can’t even get one team not named Gonzaga to reach lock-hood before the end of February. The sport you knew and loved growing up is dying! Wake up sheeple! Ah, well, it can’t be helped. Maybe I’ll put Belmont or South Florida or someone on the page next week, just to feel something, even if an at-large case for those teams is probably nothing more than a pipe dream. Let a man reminisce in the good ol’ days, OK?

Utah State: No lock in Logan this week. I probably would have pulled the trigger had Utah State held on to its late 7-point lead at Nevada; alas, the Wolf Pack battled back to score 20 points in the final seven minutes and hand the Aggies their first loss in over a month. It happens. Importantly, it hasn’t happened nearly enough to worry about Utah State, meaning the outlook for the Mountain West’s runaway best résumé is unchanged: the Aggies remain in the good graces of every metric and own a mark of 10-3 across Quadrants 1 and 2, likely in the realm of a cushy 7 or 8 seed at present moment. Big week ahead, as USU hits the road to Viejas Arena on Wednesday night to take on a San Diego State team both desperate to turn their suddenly-slumping season around and still in the hunt for a conference regular season crown, then it’s back to the Spectrum on Saturday against a wily bunch from Grand Canyon, one of only four teams to land a blow on the Aggies up to this point. Not an easy pair of games in the slightest. Go 2-0—maybe even 1-1—and Utah State can make this thing officially official.

Saint Louis: Is it time to be worried about Saint Louis? I don’t think so, but I can understand the concern. The elite numbers that the Billikens built up on all fronts across that 18-game winning streak have taken two nasty blows in just eight days; it would have been a third had VCU not gone limp with 12 minutes to play in last Friday’s meeting in Chaifetz Arena. A profile that was once a proud 6-1 in Quad 1/2 and had résumé numbers poking into the teens has quickly been sullied to 6-3 and the 30s, respectively. As such Saint Louis’ aspirations for as high as a 5 seed have almost certainly been eradicated, the Billikens now facing the very real possibility of having to play a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament’s second round. Unfortunately, that’s just life as a mid-major these days—you don’t get any wiggle room because the power conferences took it all. That said, I still think Saint Louis is in a fine spot. They’re 25-3, they’re the #1 team nationally in effective field goal percentage on defense and #3 on offense, and two of their last three are at home, serving as prime tune-up opportunities before finishing up at George Mason and heading to the A-10 tournament. Get back in the gym, take care of business at home, and everything should be a-OK.

Saint Mary’s: The week of reckoning has arrived. For all of February, Saint Mary’s has bided its time, slowly building up the metrics against the WCC’s non-contenders without stumbling once (disaster narrowly avoided at Seattle), eagerly awaiting the final two games of conference play in rematches against Santa Clara and Gonzaga—the only two to get the Gaels all of 2026. All that time, SMC has been a quandary to seed. The résumé and quality numbers are clearly reminiscent of a safe 8 or 9 seed, but a singular borderline Quad 1 win over Virginia Tech and no road victories better than NET #107 Pacific tell me that the Gaels aren’t as safe as they may seem at initial glance. The bad news? There won’t be any chances left to rectify that latter fault, as both legs of the revenge tour will be held inside McKeon Pavilion. The good news? Saint Mary’s is 14-0 on its home floor this season. Make that 16-0, and the Gaels should have nada left to worry about. Bet it’d feel real nice to get the last laugh against the Zags in their final visit to Moraga as a WCC foe, right?

Santa Clara: For as massive as the final week of the WCC regular season is for Saint Mary’s, it’s gargantuan for Santa Clara. The Broncos, chasing their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996, suffer from a lot of the same ailments as the Gaels: a single victory in Quad 1, no road wins against teams in the at-large hunt, et cetera, et cetera. Big difference is that Saint Mary’s doesn’t have a loss to NET #309 Loyola Chicago stinking up the rest of the team sheet, to the point that Santa Clara ranks about 10 spots lower across the board résumé-wise. Needless to say, it’s not a comfortable position to be in for a WCC at-large hopeful, especially one that didn’t land “the big one” against Gonzaga, seeking its first invite to March Madness in 30 years. As such, the Broncos’ postseason hopes very much hinge on Wednesday night’s jaunt an hour north to Moraga. Sweeping the Gaels should have Santa Clara in strong position to dance. Losing likely means a rubber match in Vegas on Monday, March 9 in the WCC semifinals, where victory would be required. Best to just get the winning out of the way this week, methinks.

Miami (OH): They might actually do thing, y’all. The date is now Feb. 25, 2026—we are 115 days into the college basketball season—and the Miami RedHawks are still undefeated. Both KenPom and Torvik agree that Miami has at least a 73% chance of winning each of its final three regular season games. If they do it… are they a lock at that point? Common sense would say yes; the maximum number of losses they could finish the year with is one. One! But the bracketologist in me remains hesitant; we’re still dealing with a team sheet that includes no Quad 1 wins (or Quad 1 results of any kind, for that matter), an overall strength of schedule in the 340s, and quality metrics that many one-bid-leaguers not present in the ranks of Bauer’s Bubble Watch (Tulsa, South Florida, Belmont, etc.) easily surpass. But, dude, they’d have one loss maximum. We have results metrics like SOR and WAB that recognize that such a feat is insanely impressive, no matter the schedule difficulty. I’d have to lock them, right? Let’s see them actually do it first—at Western Michigan on Friday, vs. Toledo on Tuesday, at Ohio the following Friday are all that remain. Get. It. Done.

New Mexico: Well, that one stings. New Mexico became the second at-large hopeful out of the Mountain West to fall in Reno in the span of four days, losing its grip on a late 9-point lead to lose at Nevada by 7, turning what would have been a very handy Quad 1 win into just another reason to leave the Lobos on the outside of the field. (I’d give the whole “no room for error” spiel, but I already did in Saint Louis’ blurb, and I don’t want to sound like a cranky, old man more than I already do.) New Mexico remains just about as bubbly as it gets—1-5 in Quad 1 but 7-1 in Quad 2, between 45th and 53rd in all six team-sheet metrics, and the owner of a couple helpful-but-not-awe-inspiring road wins (VCU, Grand Canyon). No, that awe would have to come in March 7’s appointment with Utah State in Logan, the Lobos’ final chance to give the selection committee a win worth poring over before the conference tournament arrives. Just don’t overlook either of San Diego State or Colorado State in the interim; UNM has not been as infallible in The Pit this year as they normally are.

San Diego State: This is getting out of hand very quickly. Pardon me for thinking that yet another bunch of Brian Dutcher-led Aztecs that struggles as a whole offensively but is as fearsome as they come defensively would eventually steer itself in the direction of becoming the Mountain West’s best team, as has typically been the case over the past half-decade for the conference’s most successful program in that span. Doesn’t appear to be that way in 2026, though; San Diego State is very much still without a road/neutral win against any team in the at-large field, a home victory over New Mexico being the Aztecs’ only such triumph, depending on where you stand about the Lobos’ current tournament status. Tack on Saturday’s unbecoming showing on defense at Colorado State (83 points in 68 possessions), and SDSU’s WAB is in negative numbers for the first time since the start of the new year. Not good, to say the least. That said, the moment we’ve been waiting for in determining the Aztecs’ final fate has arrived at last, with league-leading Utah State coming to Viejas on Wednesday, before SDSU hits the road to Albuquerque on Saturday and Boise on Tuesday. We’ll know for certain whether or not the Aztecs are truly in this thing in a week’s time.

VCU: Dang, man. VCU had it. They had it. The Rams had A-10 leader Saint Louis on the ropes on Friday, ahead by as many as 14 in the first half of what was shaping up to be a transformative victory, one that very well may have served as a springboard to launch VCU’s résumé into the at-large field entirely. But the Rams lost their grip in act two, allowing the Billikens to put up 55 points in 20 minutes, and they let that disappointment get the best of them in a bad-look brawl just before the game’s conclusion, ending their trip to the Lou with the sourest of tastes in their mouth. As it stands, there doesn’t seem to be enough bulk on the remainder of the regular-season schedule (Q4 Fordham, Q3 George Mason, barely-Q1 Dayton) to thrust VCU back into better standing, all while their lone Quad 1 win rests tenuously on the shoulders of Virginia Tech maintaining a home in the NET top 50. It’s worth keeping the Rams on the page, as every metric is hanging right around 45th, theoretically leaving an opening if things go sideways in the power conferences. But it might be time to start thinking about Pittsburgh in March—that is, winning the A-10 tournament for the third time in four years.