Are we sure we need 68 teams? Like, really, really sure?
In recent years, it’s become quite commonplace for bracketologists and fans alike to lament the quality of teams situated on or near the bubble, especially as March approaches. Whether it be poor metrics, unsightly quadrant splits, repeated inability to win big games or on the road, or some combination of the lot, the bubble of modern times has frequently left the masses wondering whether the predetermined number of 68 is really necessary.
College basketball’s concentration of power has only exacerbated this issue. The teams at the top this season haven’t lost much, and when they have, it’s most often been to each other. On only a handful of occasions have we seen bubble teams land a blow on D-I’s elite—and those minute instances of giant-slaying, despite mighty struggles elsewhere, are tending to create the difference between who’s in and who’s out of the bracket.
That’s how a team like Auburn, who is 5-11 in Quad 1 and 15-13 overall, ends up in my latest projection. There just aren’t teams on the outside looking in that have beaten Florida in their own building, knocked off St. John’s on a neutral court, and taken down the likes of Arkansas, Kentucky, and NC State at home. That’s how a TCU team who lost at home to NET #206 New Orleans on opening night is not only in but clearing Dayton, with similar victories over Florida and Iowa State in tow. Even Virginia Tech with a clip of 2-8 in Q1 and résumé metrics right below 50 is able to sneak in, at least being able to point to wins over Virginia and at Clemson as an occasional ability to win when needed against the top or on the road.
Even then, the aforementioned “giant-slaying” isn’t always present. Santa Clara seems like a dubious inclusion with a 1-5 Q1 output and Q4 loss to NET #308 Loyola Chicago on the team sheet. But at 7-1 in Quad 2, 8-3 on the road, and ranked 41st in Wins Above Bubble, the auxiliary numbers point to a tournament team. And the all-important question rears its ugly head once again: Who on the outside are you going to put in instead? Ohio State with a 1-10 Quad 1 record, their best road/neutral win being Northwestern? Indiana at 4-11 in Quad 1/2? USC with a road victory at Wisconsin and no others against present at-large teams? San Diego State with a single meaningful win over Utah State and losses of 23+ to the only good non-conference competition they played?
It’s just baffling how bad the résumés we’re considering for spots in the tournament field really are. And I can’t even pound the table for a talented mid-major like a Belmont or a South Florida to take their place instead, because they’re in the field already as a projected automatic bid. Hell, I’ve studiously held Miami (OH) to the 11 line for months, pointing to their singular Quad 2 win, strength of schedule in the 300s, and quality metrics in the 80s as reason to be suspect about the RedHawks’ seed, despite their undefeated record. But Miami is up to a 10 seed for the first time all season today; the state of the current bubble more than justifies it.
There are a lot of undeserving teams that are going to get into this year’s NCAA Tournament, lest we have bid thieves in droves like we did in 2024. It’s pretty upsetting, to be honest. (And some people want to expand the field to 72 or 76. Absolutely ridiculous notion.)
I was almost tempted to put San Diego State in the field today as the Mountain West’s automatic bid, as the Aztecs do presently hold the tiebreaker over Utah State for the Mountain West lead—I could simulate a bid thief and kick a bad at-large résumé out of the field simultaneously. But I’m still holding true to determining my auto-bids by picking the team that ranks highest in each conference in my résumé metric BRCT, save for Utah Valley and their current ban from the WAC tournament. (Though advancements toward making the Wolverines postseason-eligible again do appear to be in the works, possibly as soon as later today. We’ll keep our ear to the ground.)
Here are the full Bauertology bracket and seed list for the final time in February. When our paths next cross, it’ll finally be the greatest month of the year, and Selection Sunday will officially be under two weeks away. (The anticipation is killing me!)
