Bauertology: 3/6/26

Welcome to the final weekend of the regular season, y’all.

Selection Sunday is just nine—yes, nine—days away. It is truly the homestretch out here on the bracketology front. Most of the field, pending automatic bids, is already established. Only a couple big swings in results from here on out can really shake up the way things stand before the closing bell a week-and-a-half from now.

So, why bother with gaudy introductions? Let’s take a broad look at the field as I see it, addressing the most interesting areas where action is most likely to occur.

Starting at the top and working our way down—Duke, Michigan, and Arizona have all but cemented their spot on the 1 line. The order of those three teams could still be shifted, but I don’t see any way that any of them fall to a 2 seed at this point. The big question is who will be the last 1 seed: UConn or Florida. The Huskies are still the heavy favorite right now, as they’re ahead of the Gators in all three résumé metrics, have just three losses to Florida’s six, and have five Quad 1A wins to Florida’s three. Florida’s argument comes from the strength of its predictive metrics (top-4 across the board) and 11 Quad 1 wins built up from SEC play. Those might be enough to surpass UConn already… if not for the fact that the Huskies beat the Gators head-to-head on a neutral court back in December. Because of that result, I don’t see any way that Florida can crack the 1 line unless UConn loses once or twice more and UF’s résumé numbers move up past them as a result. (Also, Houston and Michigan State still have very slim chances at a 1 seed. They would need a lot of things to fall their way over the final few days.)

I’m starting to feel more confident about the order of teams #6 through 16, at least, more than I did in Monday’s update. Definitely still some jostling that can happen there, and I do think that a handful of teams outside of protected seed range can still move their way in, the most likely examples being Arkansas and North Carolina. The Razorbacks’ problem is that they’ve just lost against top-level competition too much (2-7 in Quad 1A), while the Tar Heels’ quality numbers (28.3 average) remain outside typical protected-seed territory. But if UNC finishes off the regular season by winning in Cameron Indoor, I don’t see how they would finish any worse than a 4 seed come Selection Sunday.

Figuring out who should be a 6 seed at this point is like pulling teeth. St. John’s belongs, and Wisconsin probably belongs based on the quality of their elite wins (at Michigan, at Illinois, vs. Michigan State). After that… it gets rough. I’ve settled on Miami (FL) and Kentucky for now, each having better collections of wins than Saint Mary’s or Louisville. The latter two may have better metric profiles in general but also have huge, gaping holes on the team sheet (Gaels are 1-3 in Quad 1 with no top-100 road wins, Cardinals are 0-8 in Quad 1A). I’ll be very curious to see if anyone can stand out from the crowd as a truly deserving 6 seed as the regular season closes out and conference tournaments ramp up.

As for the teams making up at the at-large field, I feel very good about the top-40 on my seed list. Things would really have to go sideways in conference tournaments with bid thieves for any of them to feel any real pressure of missing the dance. Even Texas at #41 is in a good spot; I am a little concerned about a 46.7 résumé metric average and 17-12 Division I record, so I’d advise that they finish off the year by beating Oklahoma to essentially remove all doubt. The true “bubble” starts with Ohio State at #42, and even then, so long as the Buckeyes take care of business at home against Indiana on Saturday, I’d really like their odds of being able to overcome that awful 2-10 Quad 1 record and ultimately make the tournament.

As for Last Four In territory—I do feel good that both SMU and Santa Clara are in the field today, but I’d really like to see each win at least one or two more games to maintain that sentiment. The Mustangs have tumbled down the seed list as a result of this three-game skid at the worst possible time, but they can still pick themselves back up with a Quad 2 win at Florida State tomorrow. Such a victory wouldn’t lock them or anything, but it would make their current spot in the bracket feel much more secure. Same for Santa Clara—beating Pacific/Seattle/San Diego in the WCC quarterfinals on Sunday is obviously a must; beating Saint Mary’s in the semifinals is where the real challenge lies. If the Broncos can pull it off, they’ll very likely be dancing for the first time in 30 years.

Consider my final two teams in the field—Auburn and VCU—as temporary additions. Auburn’s high-end victories and solid metrics but struggles to stay a reasonable number of games above .500 have been well-documented, as they enter the regular-season finale against Alabama at 16-14 overall. The Tigers’ case is really quite simple, though: win in Tuscaloosa, and they’ll be in, lose in Tuscaloosa, and they’ll be out. No team has ever made the NCAA Tournament with 16 losses before Selection Sunday, and with another loss assumed somewhere in the SEC tournament, I wouldn’t expect Auburn to be the first. But if they beat Bama and win one in the SEC tourney to make their worst possible record 18-15, I think that’ll probably be enough. Lastly, there’s VCU, in my field for the first time all season. Whether or not they can stay there until Monday’s update all depends on tonight’s game at Dayton, a Quad 1 opportunity in an area that the Rams badly lack (just 1-5). Win that game, and I’ll look like a genius for giving VCU the benefit of the doubt. Lose that game, and the door is wide open for someone in the First Four Out or Next Four Out to supplant the Rams in the next bracket.

In regard to the teams on the outside, I could realistically see any of Virginia Tech or California or Indiana being chosen instead of Auburn and/or VCU if the full bracket were unveiled today, but weaker résumé metrics as well as other problem areas (2-9 Quad 1 and head-to-head loss to VCU for VT, awful NCSOS and predictives for Cal, pitiful 5-12 Q1/2 record for IU) have them on the exterior for me right now. As such, the games they play this weekend will be massive. Virginia Tech can almost certainly move in with a win at Virginia. California might be able to move in with a win at Wake Forest, if other results go their way too. Indiana might be able to move in with a win at Ohio State, assuming their metrics move up enough to justify it.

Beyond that, it’s a bit tricky. New Mexico really shot itself in the foot badly by losing a Quad 3 game at home to Colorado State on Wednesday. Winning at Utah State to end the regular season would rectify much of that… though I’m not 100% certain that it would put the Lobos back in the field altogether. Cincinnati’s rise has been meteoric, to say the last, but as they lag badly behind the rest of the “just-outside-the-field” grouping in résumé metrics and WAB in particular (-0.65 WAB, ranked 58th), the Bearcats must win at TCU and do something good in the Big 12 tournament. Stanford is in a similar boat with a poor WAB and shoddy efficiency numbers, but their four Quad 1 wins and record of 8-8 in Q1/2 has them in the discussion all the same. A victory at NC State on Saturday is essential. And I’ve documented before how Seton Hall needs to beat St. John’s and win at least two in the Big East tourney, while San Diego State might already be cooked with a Mountain West tournament auto-bid potentially being the only method to reach March; neither of those assessments have changed.

The at-large chances of teams beyond my first eight out are really bleak; only USC and Oklahoma State are still on my “consideration board” in the spreadsheet where I build my seed list and bracket. I could maybe still add a Dayton or an Arizona State or an Oklahoma or a West Virginia if something ridiculous happens, but given the fact that even USC and Oklahoma State are huge long shots at this point, I wouldn’t count on any major changes happening there.

And that’s about it! BRCT is still my method for determining conference automatic bids for the time being, though that’s about to change real soon. By Monday’s update, we’ll already have official auto-bids clinched out of the Ohio Valley, Big South, Missouri Valley, ASUN, and Summit League.

Get hyped! Conference tournaments are here, and they are wonderful! Next Monday kicks off a huge final week of Bauertology, in which I’ll be hoping to get out more updates than just my typical Monday and Friday brackets. Don’t forget that the final edition of Bauer’s Bubble Watch on Wednesday is on the docket as well!