Well, look who decided to make good on his promise for once.
For years, I have tried and tried to get out a final final edition of Bauer’s Bubble Watch immediately preceding Selection Sunday, since there are so many things that can change in the Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday before the big reveal due to major conference tournaments being full swing. And every single time—without fail—I have, well, failed. Feels good to finally get one done!
But I’m keeping it short, sweet, and to the point; no funny business, no beating around the bush, just diving head-first into the bubble, uninterrupted.
With two days of games left to play before the bracket is unveiled, we add four more locks to our final tally, pop six bubbles that now have no chance, and are now down to a total of just seven teams of bubblesome interest.
The true final boss of Bauer’s Bubble Watch in 2026 is here.
ACC
Disaster avoided—the Wolfpack can pack their things for March. Despite the scary slide that NC State underwent for the majority of the past month, it was never enough to push the Wolfpack out of the field entirely. I certainly don’t see that being the case now, as an exhale of a win over Pittsburgh and a competitive loss to Virginia in Charlotte this week are all that Will Wade’s boys needed to sail into the postseason stress-free. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Wolfpack had to play their way out of Dayton first before cracking the main 64-team field (they are below .500 in Quad 1/2 and ranked 43rd in WAB, after all), but it would be jaw-dropping to see the selection committee exclude them altogether. They’ve got four Quad 1 wins on the road and another one in Quad 2, alongside that obliteration of arch-rival North Carolina to break up the February slump. NC State is dancing, y’all.
As for the flip side, we’ve got plenty of popping to do down on the bubble, beginning with California or Stanford. Both teams were already outside of my field on Thursday before we knew that there would be at least one bid thief, and, obviously, neither can play their way back in after dropping their opening ACC tournament games. There are still some things to like on these team sheets—four Quad 1 wins for the Golden Bears, and a 9-8 Q1/2 record for the Cardinal—but the negatives heavily outweigh the positives. Save for Stanford’s KPI rank of 43rd, every metric between the two lands at 53rd or worse. Cal’s also got an awful non-conference strength of schedule (326th) dragging it down, and Stanford ain’t that much better (285th) while also toting four Quad 3 losses and a 1-5 clip in Quad 1 games since Chisom Okpara went down for the year. So close for the ACC’s West Coast newcomers, but no dice.
And as for Virginia Tech… Yeah, I’m popping the Hokies too. It might seem premature with a WAB just north of 50 and at least two decent wins on the team sheet (vs. Virginia, at Clemson), and I could perhaps foresee the selection committee showing a smidge of sympathy to a team that has had its heart ripped out on numerous occasions across the season. But think of all the teams right near the cut line that the committee would have to reason VT above, just for them to get into the field. VCU and SMU, who beat Virginia Tech head-to-head? Oklahoma and Texas, who rank well ahead of the Hokies and SOR and WAB while also doubling or tripling their Quad 1 output? Even Auburn and Indiana look somewhat appetizing in comparison to Virginia Tech, given that their upper-tier victories dwarf what the Hokies have accomplished. It just takes one head turn too many to see any way that Tech is selected for the tournament. And given that the Hokies have preemptively declined an NIT bid to focus on next season, not even they believe that they have a chance to dance at this point. A pop is the right choice.
SMU: Ya know, I really respect the audacity of SMU to wake up on Friday morning and say, “Yup, B.J. Edwards is all good to go for the NCAA Tournament,” without providing any further context on his status. If you’re able to read between the lines, you can tell that what they’re actually saying is, “Please don’t leave us out because our second best player has been hurt while we’ve lost four of the last five, he’ll be back in time for the tournament, super-duper pinky promise.” I mean, what do you have to lose? Even if Edwards isn’t actually ready to go for the postseason, what can the committee do if they give SMU a bid? Just take it back? Give it to some other schmuck bubble team? No, they can’t, hence why the Mustangs are taking the gamble in the first place. That said, I doubt said gamble is going to pay off; the selection committee’s overall evaluation of SMU is likely going to be greatly influenced by their performance across these Edwards-less games. And that means that the Mustangs’ name will almost unquestionably appear on screen when CBS flashes that “Last Four In/First Four Out” graphic on screen. Which column they are listed under remains to be seen.
BIG 12
Bye, bye, Bearcats. Cincinnati was certainly one of the most compelling late-season stories, putting themselves right in the mix with under two weeks to go after floundering about for the first three months of the season. But no March Madness after all that excitement after all, as the Bearcats ceded an 8-0 run late to allow UCF to knock them out of the Big 12 tourney in OT. Cincy needed that win and a victory over Arizona the following day; they got neither. It’s finished, and so is Wes Miller’s time in Queen City, as of Friday morning. Here’s hoping that he and the Bearcats can both land on their feet.
Oklahoma State is out of here too under identical circumstances: the Cowboys won a must-win game in the first round before choking away a second must-win game in the second round, all but sealing their fate. If there’s one team that I’m wrong about their bubble being completely popped, it’s probably OSU, as the committee could perhaps pull a stunner and have the Cowboys in the field with a bad-but-not-horrendous 50th-ranked WAB and eight Quad 2 wins. But they’re 2-11 in Quad 1, winless in six Quad 1A chances, ranked no higher than 48th in any metric, and 2-7 in true-road contests. If that’s a tournament team, then we’ve got serious issues.
And thus I predict that the Big 12 will collect precisely eight bids, no more, no less. Maybe they should just call themselves the Big 8 instead. (Why does that name ring a bell? Hmm…)
BIG EAST
No change here—I already popped Seton Hall on Wednesday, said that the Pirates needed to beat St. John’s in the Big East semifinals to have a chance, and they did not do that. No potential for a bid thief either, as we’re set for a Huskies-Red Storm rubber match on championship Saturday. (Thanks for at least making it exciting for a bit, Georgetown.) The Big East is a three-bid league. Pack it, ship it, send it to the bank.
BIG TEN
Kudos to Ohio State for actually elevating their game in a world where nearly every other bubble team has faded to the nth degree. Since I lamented the Buckeyes’ goose egg in the Quad 1 win column prior to the start of March, that number has risen to four with subsequent wins (Purdue, Iowa) and helpful NET movements (Wisconsin, Northwestern), making OSU’s résumé look stellar in comparison to what we’ve got going on down in Bubble Land. Heck, they might have actually overshot their goal; the Buckeyes appear to be more in line for an 8/9 seed and a date with Duke, Arizona, or Florida in the second round, instead of a 10 seed, where an escape to the second weekend would have been much more doable. Every action has its price, I suppose.
And here’s that unenthusiastic lock for Iowa that I’ve been expecting for weeks. I still hold the same concerns about the Hawkeyes that I did on Wednesday: a 42.7 résumé average and 4-9 Quad 1 record are just not very strong marks for a team looking for total tournament certainty. But here’s the thing: Iowa is 26th in NET—that would be a record snub. They’re 39th in WAB—that would also be a record snub. A team sheet that with those marks that also includes wins over Nebraska, Ohio State, and UCLA is just not something to turn your nose up at, not when we’re dealing with so, so much worse elsewhere on the bubble. Don’t be completely shocked if Iowa somehow lands in Dayton; do be completely shocked if they miss the field altogether.
Indiana: I mean, it’s over, right? Indiana is almost certainly not making the tournament. I can’t in good conscience fully eliminate a team that is top-50 in NET and four of six metrics while also possessing victories over Purdue, Wisconsin, and UCLA in Los Angeles, especially when the bubble is in as disreputable a state as it is. But I think I’m good to stick the needle about 98% of the way in. I mean, what argument do the Hoosiers really have? That their predictive numbers are good? Those don’t matter for selection. That they beat tournament teams? Congratulations, you beat three of ’em, none of which came in non-conference (an SOS that ranks 218th, by the way), and those are your only three wins in Quad 1. That Darian DeVries deserves some sympathy since he was screwed out of a tournament bid last season? (That angle might honestly be the most compelling.) I just don’t see it, a team that went out with a whimper by losing six of its last seven—two of those coming to Northwestern, mind you—to finish a putrid 6-14 against Quad 1/2 somehow ending up in the selection committee’s good graces. I think they’re destined to be in the First Four Out for the second straight season. That’s Indiana basketball in modern day for ya, folks.
SEC
We spent a good third of Bauer’s Bubble Watch on Wednesday just sifting through the bubble muck in the ACC; why not give the SEC the same treatment on Saturday? The ACC bubble’s disappearing act in conference tournament play has allowed a different league to take the spotlight when it comes to bubble shenanigans. And, oh boy, does the SEC deliver. Not only are we looking at three teams so close to the cut line that it could come down to a coin flip on who’s in and who’s out, but now we also have to account for a sicko sprint to the SEC semis by 15th-place Ole Miss, who must have pulled some dark incantations out of 2008 Georgia’s playbook to beat the Longhorns, Bulldogs, and now Crimson Tide, presently sitting just two wins shy of becoming a bid thief, and likely popping one of their SEC brethren in the process. Whew, lad! I suppose it really does just mean more.
Missouri: I said it on Wednesday and I’m saying it again today: Missouri should be fine. I think that a trip to scenic Dayton, Ohio, is very likely to be in the Tigers’ future, especially with that 214th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule, but a disappointment spurred by Selection Show exclusion is not, even with a one-and-done showing in the SEC tourney. A 3-4 Quad 1A record is far better than anyone else in nearby bubble range, and wins of the ilk of beating Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky in Lexington, and Texas A&M in College Station (without the added baggage of having lost half your games) are absent elsewhere as well. It won’t be pretty if it somehow comes down to Missouri vs. Texas for a tournament spot, given the Longhorns’ 85-68 triumph in Columbia back on Valentine’s Day, but that seems an unlikely scenario, given that Mizzou’s full body of work is far more complete. Barring a selection room stunner, the Tigers ought to be in for the third time in four years.
Texas: Funny how none of this bubble lunacy in the SEC would have meant a lick if Texas had just taken care of business against Oklahoma in the regular season finale. That result both breathed life into the Sooners’ case and put the Longhorns’ own into question, but it’s all good, so long as Texas just wins its opening SEC tourney game against Ole Miss! …Or they can just lose by double digits to finish 17-14 in D-I contests and make this thing even messier. (Hoo, boy—the irony will not be lost on me if it’s Chris Beard of all people that keeps Texas out of the dance.) Look, I want to afford the Horns the benefit of the doubt; they surprised me and a whole bunch of other bracketologists by being in the field last year despite a 10-15 Quad 1-3 record and résumé average north of 50, all thanks to a collection of seven Q1 wins. But you’re really tempting fate—and the selection committee’s patience—by trying to get back into the tournament a year later with nearly the exact same profile. Count your blessings that Arkansas snuffed out the Sooners’ sudden ascent on Friday, or it may have been the Longhorns’ spot in the field that their crimson-clad rivals swiped. Even then, it’s going to be a sweaty 30-some-hour wait, especially if one or two extra bid thieves emerge between now and 6 p.m. Sunday.
Oklahoma: Wow, did Oklahoma make things real interesting real quick. We bracketologists always talk about how most bubble teams play themselves out of contention rather than in, as has been the case for the vast majority of the bubble this season. Good on the Sooners for bucking the trend. Had they held on to their second-half lead against Arkansas on Friday, I would have felt pretty bullish on OU’s postseason chances; five Quad 1 wins and nearly every metric ranking in the high 30s and low 40s with room to spare in the committee’s discussion schedule would have made their selection case quite compelling. Unfortunately, that loss knocks the Sooners back into the high 40s WAB-wise, leaving them short of current cut line teams in the most important areas (two fewer Q1 wins than Texas, well below VCU and SMU in the résumé metrics). If the committee decides to show Oklahoma some favor for how they’ve rebounded from that backbreaking nine-game losing streak in early conference play, then they may not be dead quite yet. Otherwise, I think it’s most likely that the Sooners’ herculean-level push just before the season’s finish line ends up coming up a game or two shy of glory. I applaud you nonetheless.
Auburn: How badly does the selection committee want to destroy history? This is the question that we’ve asked ourselves for weeks regarding Auburn, and it finally comes to a head. Following Thursday’s SEC second-round defeat to Tennessee, in which Auburn ceded a late 20-0 run to blow what very well could have been a bid-clinching win, the Tigers closed out their season at 17-16 overall. I remind you of two things: 1) No team has ever received an at-large with 16 losses, and 2) no team has ever received an at-large just one game over .500. Seems pretty cut and dry on Auburn’s tournament odds then, right? Well, that hasn’t stopped the propaganda machine from turning, as the Tigers’ social media team has taken to posting not just one but two misleading graphics about why Auburn so clearly deserves a spot. Second most Quad 1 games played? Great—means jack-squat to me when you’ve won less than 25% of ’em. Top win in the country at Florida? Excellent win, but no, that belongs to Wisconsin, who beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Number 14 offense in KenPom and higher NET ranking than other bubble teams? Congratulations—two more data points that mean diddly-poo in terms of an actual tournament résumé. Who approved this? (Sorry for picking on y’all in particular—I know that you just want to see your team in the dance. But this just comes off as tacky and desperate. Surely some better discretion could have been exercised.) Long story short: I don’t think that Auburn is getting in, disingenuous Twitter graphics or not.
OTHERS
So, of course, after completing a perfect 31-0 regular season, in which they were also an incredibly clutch 8-0 in games decided by four points or fewer, Miami (OH) went and did the most predictable thing in the world (and maybe the most hilarious) by immediately losing to 8 seed UMass 87-83 in the opening round of the MAC tournament. And thus, the social media panic immediately ensued: They’re no longer perfect! They’ve got a Quad 3 loss now! After all this time, could 31-1 Miami actually end up missing the tournament?
Well, let me set your mind at ease: Miami is making the tournament, 100%. And if you don’t believe me, just think about the ramifications if they don’t. For weeks, all we’ve heard about is how this is the worst bubble of all time, and we have material evidence that supports that claim. You really think amid all that talk that the selection committee is going to leave out a team that is 31-1? Do you understand the kind of repercussions if they made that decision? Outside of just the immediate riots in the street that would take place, all mid-majors would essentially be sent a message from god that the regular season is completely pointless, so why bother playing your best players all year, when you just can keep them healthy and win your conference’s automatic bid, i.e., apparently the only way for a non-P5 team to play in March Madness these days? Personally, I don’t think the committee wants to open that can of worms. I also think that they’re smart enough to realize that a 31-1 team with résumé metrics still in the top-40 is far more deserving of a bid than the other options we’ve got on the bubble. Could the RedHawks be in the First Four in Dayton? Sure, possibly, maybe even likely. But I don’t think that Miami would even mind that, to be honest. An hour bus ride to play a game where the entire nation is watching you, in which you earn some serious moolah for yourself and your conference if you win? Sounds like a great deal!
So take a deep breath and stop with the panic. Miami is in. (Unless Sunday comes and we learn that they aren’t, then at least we can wholeheartedly verify that college basketball is truly and irreconcilably ruined forever.)
Also, we’re finally able to lock Saint Louis. Really looked like the Billikens were going to continue their early spring stink act by getting waxed by George Washington in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals on Friday. But SLU locked in for maybe the first time in a month, roaring back from 21 down to outscore the Revolutionaries 54-33 in the second half, sealing this thing up at last. They can make it official official with two more wins in two days, but there’s no reason to think that the Billikens would be in any danger when compared to this bubble. We’re good to go here.
Santa Clara: Against my better judgment, I’m sliding Santa Clara up to “safe.” Look, I admit that I still have concerns about the Broncos’ résumé. It’s just a little thin in important areas, like featuring wins that really matter (two out of three victories against Saint Mary’s is about it in that department), as well as bearing the worst loss of any likely at-large team against NET #280 Loyola Chicago. With those blemishes, is Santa Clara truly 100% safe if any combination of the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and (lord help me) SEC produces enough bid thieves? I would say no. But I would also say that such a mass influx of thievery is the only way that the Broncos’ bid could be in jeopardy. An 8-7 record across Quad 1/2, 12 total victories outside of the Leavey Center, and each résumé metric ranking 41st or better (with helpful predictives to boot) make it seem all but certain that Santa Clara is set to dance for the first time in 30 years. No team missed out on an at-large spot last year with more than 0.78 Wins Above Bubble; the Broncos easily clear the bar with 2.08. They should be in with room to spare, if one year of history holds true.
VCU: And the hunt for a three-bid Atlantic 10 lives another day. No team hovering right along the tournament cut line has had a better couple weeks than VCU, as the Rams have gone about their ordinary winning business while other bubblers have soiled themselves at nearly every waking moment. That trend continued on Friday, as the Rams toughed out what was essentially a road game against a wily Duquesne bunch to land a spot in Saturday’s A-10 tournament semifinals. At this point, I think the only method that sees our three-bid A-10 dreams actualized involves Dayton upsetting top-seeded Saint Louis and VCU promptly disposing of Saint Joseph’s, followed by the Flyers edging out the Rams in a nail-biter on Sunday afternoon. But I’m not too keen on that idea if I’m VCU; this is still an extremely bubbly team sheet that we’re dealing with, likely enough to get into the field based on the strength of its metrics but uncertain to stay that way with another hypothetical loss in tow. Leaving no doubt is always the most practical approach, and the Rams can do just that with just two more wins in two days. Think you’re up to the task?
San Diego State: And the “winner survives/loser goes home” battle goes to the Aztecs. It’s a real shame that the Mountain West as we’ve come to know it will no longer exist next season, but at least the conference is going out with a bang, Friday night’s sensational semifinal between San Diego State and New Mexico delivering on all fronts. Both teams were pretty clearly outside the field for me heading into the matchup, and with their season now over, it looks like the Lobos’ small sparks of March Madness hope have been extinguished. The Aztecs, on the other hand, play on, clashing with Utah State for the Mountain West tournament title and automatic bid on Saturday night. The Aggies are the only reason that the Aztecs are the in at-large picture in the first place, SDSU’s pivotal win in Viejas on Feb. 25 still serving as their sole victory against the field. It’s for that reason that I fear a loss in Vegas on Saturday night may still sink San Diego State’s ship after all, what with metrics still in the mid-to-high 40s and no Quad 1A victories in sight. I’ll leave the door ever so slightly ajar should the selection committee want to think outside the box for one of their final at-large choices, but we’re probably looking at an Aztecs appearance in the First Four Out without the MWC auto-bid in hand. Brian Dutcher and friends are the only hope for making the classic Mountain West more than a one-bid league in its final season! We’re in your corner, guys. (The Texases and SMUs of the world are most certainly not.)