Bauertology Top 25: Preseason

In less than a day, college basketball will be back. It’s been a difficult road to get here, as the COVID-19 pandemic has presented all sorts of challenges. With it, the 2020-2021 season promises to be a season unlike any other, especially with the recent news that March Madness will be held in a single-city bubble. But the NCAA Tournament is nearly four months away at this point, meaning nothing is set in stone in this wild year. Let’s celebrate what we can while we can, including the much-anticipated return of the college basketball season.

Let’s start the new season right with the preseason top 25 rankings, documenting 25 of the top college basketball programs who could be making a splash this season. Remember, these preseason rankings are all just speculation, as we haven’t seen any of these teams in action yet, so take them with a grain of salt, and just be happy that college basketball is back!

1. Baylor

On paper, Baylor looks like the best team in the nation. They return four starters from last year’s 26-4 team, including preseason All-American Jared Butler. Throw in the fact that Mark Vital leads one of the best returning defenses in the country (allowed just 60.1 points per game last season), and Baylor, not Kansas, should be this year’s favorites to win the Big 12. We’ll find out quickly whether or not Baylor can live up to the hype, as the Bears’ season opens with three ranked matchups against Arizona State (Nov. 25), Illinois (Dec. 2) and Gonzaga (Dec. 5), as well a road tilt at Seton Hall (Nov. 29).

2. Gonzaga

The mid-major empire in Spokane continues. Even with program greats like Killian Tillie and Filip Petrusev now gone, Gonzaga has patched those holes nicely, bringing in Jalen Suggs, the school’s highest-rated recruit ever, and Aaron Cook, a talented transfer from Southern Illinois. They’ll be paired with the returning core of Joel Ayayi, Drew Timme and Preseason All-American Corey Kispert. Mark Few’s team has won at least 30 games each of the past four years, and while that mark may be difficult to hit considering the shape of the 2020-2021 season, the Bulldogs certainly seem capable of another standout year in Spokane.

3. Villanova

Jay Wright has turned Villanova into a perennial powerhouse. In recent years, the Wildcats have almost always been pegged as the class of the Big East, and this season should be no different. Although leading scorer Saddiq Bey has since moved on to the NBA, Villanova should have no problem continuing to put the ball in the bucket, as the four returning starters, Collin Gillespie, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Justin Moore and Jermaine Samuels, all averaged double figures last season. It seems like it’s going to take a lot to unseat Villanova as the king of the Big East.

4. Kansas

Last year’s top team returns a lot of key pieces, namely Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Garrett, a contender to reach All-American status with some improved offense. He’s assisted in the backcourt by Ochai Agbaji and will have new talent to work with in five-star recruit Bryce Thompson and JUCO star Tyon Grant-Foster. The Jayhawks do have questions to answer in terms of presence underneath the basket, as the loss of Udoka Azubuike leaves a huge hole to fill there, but the perimeter talent and Bill Self’s coaching are omnipresent. There’s no reason to believe Kansas won’t remain one of the premier programs in college basketball.

5. Iowa

Another team that returns all five starters from last season, Iowa is, of course, powered by National Player of the Year runner-up Luka Garza, a multi-dimensional athlete who can score low, score from deep and can get you a board or a block when you need it. He’s the star of the show, but a supporting cast featuring sharpshooter Joe Wieskamp, a healthy Jordan Bohannon, and a deep, experienced rotation makes Iowa truly scary. If the Hawkeyes can just tighten up their defensive play, they’ll likely be the favorites to win the Big Ten.

6. Wisconsin

Iowa may be the top preseason team in the Big Ten, but Wisconsin isn’t far behind. Just like the Hawkeyes, the Badgers return all five starters from last season. The difference is that Wisconsin doesn’t feature a superstar centerpiece like Garza. Instead, the Badgers rely on contributions from the entire veteran cast, especially on defense, an area that Iowa lags behind in. The offense will need to take the next step (averaged just 67.2 points per game last season), but the experience and excellent defensive play show exciting prospects for Wisconsin.

7. Creighton

If there’s any time that can challenge Villanova’s supremacy in the Big East, it’s Creighton. The Bluejays should be an absolute force offensively, boasting the conference’s preseason Player of the Year Marcus Zegarowski, 3-point specialist Mitch Ballock, and a talented support group, headlined by Denzel Mahoney. Even with leading scorer Ty-Shon Alexander headed to the pros, the Bluejays should have no problem putting up points in bunches, making for one of the most exciting teams to watch in 2020-21.

8. Virginia

The Cavaliers are technically still the defending champions, although the key players in that run are all departed by this point. Instead, Virginia is led by Kihei Clark, a talented guard who should see his offensive game improve, and Jay Huff, a 7-foot-1-inch monster who can score from anywhere on the floor. The key addition here is transfer Sam Hauser, who shot 44.5% from 3-point range in his career at Marquette. An always-amazing defense paired with a potentially exciting offense makes Virginia one of the preseason favorites in the ACC.

9. Duke

Duke enters the 2020-21 season with a lot to prove. The Blue Devils don’t return any of their double-digit scorers from last season, as Tre Jones, Vernon Carey Jr. and Cassius Stanley all went pro. Instead, returners Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore Jr. will be running the show, aided by five-star acquisitions Jalen Johnson, Jeremy Roach, DJ Steward and Mark Williams. It’s hard to imagine those names putting up the same performances we saw from Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett just two years ago, but if anyone has proven that they can mold young talent into something special, it’s head coach Mike Krzyzewski.

10. Illinois

2020-21 is shaping up to be the most exciting season that the Fighting Illini have had in quite some time. Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn have a legitimate argument as the best point guard/center combo in the country, while returning veteran leadership like Trent Frazier and exciting freshman prospects like Adam Miller make Illinois one of the most intriguing and well-rounded teams in college hoops. There should be a battle at the top of the Big Ten all season long, and the Illini should be in the thick of it.

11. Michigan State

It’s going to be weird seeing Michigan State suit up without Cassius Winston on the floor, but the Spartans are more than capable of replacing his production. Assuming Josh Langford stays healthy, he’ll be part of a starting lineup that features Aaron Henry, Rocket Watts and Marquette transfer Joey Hauser. The Spartans can also go about eight or nine players deep, which will be essential, considering the talent and experience that comprises the other top contenders in the Big Ten.

12. West Virginia

Last season’s young core returns with Big 12 experience, commanded by standout sophomore Oscar Tshiebwe. Fellow big man Derek Culver and point guard Miles McBride round out the exciting trio, while the addition of 6-foot-10-inch freshman Isaiah Cottrell means the Mountaineers should be more than able to address their scoring deficiencies under the hoop from last season. And that’s all without mentioning that WVU might have the best defense in a conference chock-full of it.

13. Kentucky

Recruit talent, succeed on the court, lose said talent to the NBA, reload for the next season: a formula that has proven successful in John Calipari’s time as head coach. That’s the plan this year, as Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley and Nick Richards are all gone, with five-star freshmen B.J. Boston, Terrence Clark and Isaiah Jackson taking their place. The Wildcats also brought in a plethora of transfer talent, headlined by Wake Forest’s 7-foot center Olivier Sarr. Kentucky may not have a surefire All-American running the show, but there are few teams in the nation that are as deep as the Wildcats.

14. Tennessee

Last year’s rebuild was a tough one to sit through, but the results should prove more than worthwhile this season. The return of Yves Pons, a defensive stalwart who can also make a bucket, is huge, while fellow returners Jordan Fulkerson, Josiah Jordan-James and Santiago Vescovi will also provide a boost in the scoring department. There’s also that pair of top-20 recruits in Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson. Long story short, the Volunteers have a stacked roster, and they should be Kentucky’s top competition for the SEC crown.

15. Florida State

It’s never a good idea to bet against Leonard Hamilton, who leads a Florida State coming off a regular season ACC title after back-to-back appearances in the Sweet Sixteen or later. Even with top contributors Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest gone, the Seminoles return veteran talent in the likes of M.J. Walker and Malik Osborne. They also bring in the top recruit in program history, Montverde Academy’s Scottie Barnes, a do-it-all guy who could very well end up as the ACC Freshman of the Year. It’s looking like another strong year in Tallahassee.

16. Arizona State

Bobby Hurley’s squad always seems to find itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble. That trend should change this year, as the Sun Devils are the most talent team in what should be an all-around improved Pac-12. Preseason All-American Remy Martin is the ringleader, having averaged 19 points per game in 2019-20, while fellow seniors Alonzo Verge and Holland Woods and five-star freshmen Joshua Christopher and Marcus Bagley round out a dynamic cast. As a team that can shoot the deep ball well, Arizona State should be an absolute blast to watch.

17. Texas Tech

While the Red Raiders lost their best two players from last year in Jahmi’us Ramsey and Davide Moretti, head coach Chris Beard has done a fine job reloading, bringing in a top-15 recruiting class as well as a pair of East Coast transfers in Georgetown’s Mac McClung and VCU’s Marcus Santos-Silva. They’ll all assist the dynamic duo of Kyler Edwards and Terrence Shannon Jr., who will look to put Texas Tech back in the conversation of the Big 12’s elite after a bit of a down year in 2019-20.

18. Houston

The best team in the American Athletic Conference last year is the best team this year, even after losing Nate Hinton and Fabian White Jr. The backcourt duo of Caleb Mills and Quentin Grimes is the best in the conference, and it should handle most of the heavily lifting offensively. With Wichita State falling apart, UConn departed for the Big East, and Cincinnati expected to take on a rebuilding year, Memphis appears to be the only major challenge to Houston’s supremacy in the AAC.

19. Rutgers

The cancellation of the NCAA Tournament left Rutgers heartbroken, as the Scarlet Knight were on pace to reach the big dance for the first time since 1991. Luckily for Steve Pikiell’s team, they retained enough talent to keep that dream alive in 2020-21 (Akwasi Yeboah being the only non-returner). With Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. running the show, the Scarlet Knights should turn the RAC into an electric factory. The only question is how well Rutgers will perform away from Piscataway (2-8 in true road games last season).

20. Florida

An inconsistent Florida squad in 2019-20 should see improvement in every aspect, particularly defense, in 2020-21. Even with Kerry Blackshear Jr. graduating and Andrew Nembhard transferring to Gonzaga, the Gators return a number of key contributors, especially Keyontae Johnson, a dark horse contender for SEC Player of the Year. Florida couldn’t quite live up to its lofty preseason hopes last season, but more tempered expectations and another year of chemistry among its rotation should prove successful for the Gators.

21. Texas

All eyes are on Shaka Smart. When the Longhorns snagged him from VCU, they were hoping that he could transform the program into a perennial contender. That hasn’t happened, as Texas has underperformed in each of his five seasons as head coach. Now, Smart has arguably his best team ever, returning every single player from the 2019-20 roster and tacking on a top-10 recruit in 6-foot-9-inch power forward Greg Brown. This has to be the season, right? If not now, when?

22. Oregon

Dana Altman’s Ducks may find it difficult to immediately replace the production of Pac-12 Player of the Year Payton Pritchard, but they have the experience to pull it off. Shooting guard Will Richardson stands out as the natural replacement, given his deep-ball prowess (46.9% from 3-point range last year). He won’t be bearing the load alone though, as returners Chris Duarte and Amauri Hardy as well as St. John’s transfer LJ Figueroa provide a number of scoring options for one of the Pac-12’s top yearly contenders.

23. LSU

Will Wade and company may have lost Skylar Mays to the NBA, but the returns of Darius Days, Javonte Smart and Trendon Watford are absolutely critical, especially for Smart, whose scoring and facilitating ability could land him on the All-SEC list by season’s end. Together, they make up a talented, experience core that can keep up with the SEC’s best. Add in five-star freshman Cameron Thomas and a handful of depth transfers and you’ve got a Tigers squad that can make some noise.

24. North Carolina

It’s seems highly unlikely that North Carolina will experience the same disastrous results that it did in 2019-20. The veteran trio of Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot and Leaky Black makes for an absolutely terrifying frontcourt that should have no problems scoring down low. The bigger question is the lack of backcourt presence, which takes a hit with Cole Anthony’s departure. That burden will most likely fall on incoming five-star point guard Caleb Love. Even if he’s not as good as advertised, the Tar Heels’ domination up front should be enough to return them to relevance.

25. Ohio State

Chris Holtmann has his work cut out for him, as he’ll have to find the right pieces to replace the production of D.J. Carton and the Wesson brothers. He’s got the depth to do it, as CJ Walker, E.J. Liddell, Duane Washington Jr. and Kyle Young all return, while transfers Seth Towns and Justice Sueing make for intriguing options in the frontcourt, but no one quite stands out as a star player just yet. It may be a bit of a learning season in Columbus.

Next 5: Michigan, UCLA, Richmond, Alabama, Louisville

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