Bracketology just got a lot easier. And a lot harder.
With the special status of the 2021 NCAA Tournament being held entirely in Indianapolis in order to mitigate the further spread of COVID-19, bracketolgy in 2021 seemed like a bit of a crapshoot. With no first-round sites or regional locations to put teams into pods, it was mostly a guessing game as to where teams would be placed in the bracket. But the NCAA revealed Friday that the tournament bracket will follow an S-curve, i.e. the true seeds of all 68 teams will dictate which regions teams end up in.
This is certainly an improvement from the guessing we bracketologists were doing before, as it gives us a concrete pattern for forming the bracket. However, this new system also puts more emphasis on guessing true seeds correctly. Since location mattered more than true seed for teams on the same seed line in tournaments past, true seed wasn’t as important. But with no location to fall back on, the pressure is on for bracketologists to guess true seeds as best as possible.
Well, let’s give it another shot. With the new S-curve rule in place, here’s today’s Bauertology bracket projection.
TRUE SEED LIST
1 Seeds
1. Gonzaga (14-0)
2. Baylor (12-0)
3. Michigan (11-1)
4. Tennessee (10-1)
2 Seeds
5. Texas (11-2)
6. Villanova (8-1)
7. Iowa (11-2)
8. Houston (10-1)
3 Seeds
9. Wisconsin (11-3)
10. Kansas (10-3)
11. Ohio State (11-3)
12. Missouri (8-2)
4 Seeds
13. Clemson (9-2)
14. Alabama (11-3)
15. Creighton (10-3)
16. Colorado (11-3)
5 Seeds
17. Illinois (9-5)
18. Texas Tech (11-4)
19. Minnesota (11-4)
20. UConn (7-1)
6 Seeds
21. Louisville (9-2)
22. Oregon (9-2)
23. West Virginia (9-4)
24. USC (11-2)
7 Seeds
25. UCLA (11-2)
26. Virginia Tech (10-2)
27. Saint Louis (7-1)
28. LSU (10-2)
8 Seeds
29. Oklahoma State (9-3)
30. Virginia (9-2)
31. Florida State (7-2)
32. Boise State (12-1)
9 Seeds
33. Xavier (10-2)
34. Purdue (9-5)
35. Seton Hall (9-5)
36. Rutgers (7-5)
10 Seeds
37. BYU (11-3)
38. Arkansas (10-4)
39. Oklahoma (7-4)
40. Drake (13-0)
11 Seeds
41. San Diego State (9-4)
42. Stanford (8-5)
43. Indiana (8-6)
44. Michigan State (8-4)
12 Seeds
*45. North Carolina (8-5)
*46. Richmond (9-3)
*47. Pittsburgh (7-2)
*48. VCU (10-3)
49. Winthrop (13-0)
50. UAB (10-2)
13 Seeds
51. Furman (10-3)
52. Toledo (11-4)
53. Belmont (14-1)
54. Georgia State (8-2)
14 Seeds
55. Abilene Christian (11-2)
56. Liberty (12-5)
57. South Dakota State (8-3)
58. Siena (6-0)
15 Seeds
59. Cleveland State (10-4)
60. Vermont (6-3)
61. Bryant (10-3)
62. Colgate (4-1)
16 Seeds
63. Grand Canyon (8-3)
64. Southern Utah (10-2)
*65. UC Irvine (6-4)
*66. Northeastern (6-5)
*67. Norfolk State (7-4)
*68. Southern (2-4)
BRACKET
Region 1
1 Gonzaga vs. 16 Norfolk State / Southern
8 Boise State vs. 9 Xavier
5 Illinois vs. 12 UAB
4 Colorado vs. 13 Furman
6 USC vs. 11 San Diego State
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Siena
7 Virginia Tech vs. 10 Drake
2 Houston vs. 15 Cleveland State
Region 4
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Grand Canyon
8 Oklahoma State vs. 9 Rutgers
5 UConn vs. 12 Winthrop
4 Clemson vs. 13 Georgia State
6 Louisville vs. 11 Stanford
3 Ohio State vs. 14 Abilene Christian
7 LSU vs. 10 BYU
2 Texas vs. 15 Colgate
Region 2
1 Baylor vs. 16 UC Irvine / Northeastern
8 Florida State vs. 9 Purdue
5 Minnesota vs. 12 Pittsburgh / VCU
4 Creighton vs. 13 Toledo
6 West Virginia vs. 11 Indiana
3 Missouri vs. 14 South Dakota State
7 UCLA vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 Iowa vs. 15 Vermont
Region 3
1 Michigan vs. 16 Southern Utah
8 Virginia vs. 9 Seton Hall
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 North Carolina / Richmond
4 Alabama vs. 13 Belmont
6 Oregon vs. 11 Michigan State
3 Kansas vs. 14 Liberty
7 Saint Louis vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Villanova vs. 15 Bryant
THE BUBBLE
Last Four Byes
1. San Diego State (9-4)
2. Stanford (8-5)
3. Indiana (8-6)
4. Michigan State (8-4)
Last Four In
1. North Carolina (8-5)
2. Richmond (9-3)
3. Pittsburgh (7-2)
4. VCU (10-3)
First Four Out
1. Florida (6-4)
2. Wichita State (8-3)
3. St. Bonaventure (6-1)
4. Colorado State (10-2)
Next Four Out
1. Utah State (11-3)
2. Maryland (8-6)
3. SMU (7-2)
4. Marquette (8-6)
Also Considered
Duke (5-3)
Georgia Tech (6-3)
Loyola Chicago (9-3)
NC State (6-4)
Northwestern (6-5)
Providence (7-6)
Syracuse (7-4)
Tulsa (7-4)
BIDS BY CONFERENCE
Big Ten: 10
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 3
Mountain West: 2
WCC: 2