Sorry that it’s been a while since I’ve posted one of this! Life being busy and all that.
The shape of the tournament bracket is starting to get interesting. Teams that we once thought were totally secure, such as Indiana, are out of the bracket entirely, and teams that we thought had no chance, like Rutgers, are suddenly in the conversation.
Rutgers has been especially interesting, just because their résumé is the strangest of perhaps any team. Yes, they have so many quality wins, including four in a row over top-tier Big Ten teams. But the metrics, strength of schedule numbers, and bad losses they suffered back in late 2021 are also on the team sheet. As such, I have the Scarlet Knights just on the outside looking in, but if they continue to play the way they have late, they might just sneak into the bracket after all.
On the flip side, there’s North Carolina, who I still have in the bracket after an ugly home loss to Pittsburgh. The main knock on the Tar Heels is that they don’t have a Quad 1 win, and they basically get shellacked by any Quad 1 team they play. That points to a team well out of the field. But once again, it’s about the entire résumé. And aside from that strange loss to Pitt, UNC has been clean in every non-Quad 1 game. Their strength of schedule numbers are good, the metrics generally like them, and they can win games on the road. So while that donut in the Q1 column is very, very concerning—enough for me to put North Carolina in the Last Four In—you have to remember to read the entire team sheet. (Also worth noting: Iowa and Houston are without a Quad 1 win as well, and no one is asking to kick them out of the field.)
These arguments may become moot anyway, as there is still about a month of college basketball left to play before Selection Sunday. So just enjoy this version of Bauertology for Thursday, Feb. 17!
THE BRACKET
THE TRUE SEED LIST, BUBBLE, AND BIDS BY CONFERENCE
It seems it may take a minor miracle for Michigan to even make the tournament (let alone get a bye). They would have to finish the regular season 18-13 and win one big ten tournament game for them to even have a shot at the tournament IMO.