Well, that weekend was something, huh?
I’m not speaking about the always relentless Saturday schedule that seems to deliver every single weekend (though that was great, too). Of course, I’m talking about the selection committee’s top 16 preview that we bracketologists covet so much.
And, as per usual, the preview show seemed to raise just as many questions as answers.
The problem with the preview show is that, although we do get a crystal clear glimpse of where the top 16 teams sit in the selection committee’s estimate, they don’t offer much of an explanation as for why those teams are where they are. So we bracketologists are left to infer the decision-making behind their choices.
Most of bracket-makers were left pretty stunned to see North Carolina behind both Tennessee and Marquette, with some offering the explanation that the committee didn’t take into account UNC’s Tuesday night loss to Syracuse. I disagree; according to media contact David Worlock, they held their selection and seeding meetings into Thursday morning. That’s plenty enough time to adjust the seed list.
I think there’s a more simple explanation in that North Carolina is the runaway frontrunner in their conference (something neither Tennessee nor Marquette can say), had their biggest stumbles on the road (Georgia Tech, Syracuse) but are otherwise excellent in away games (in comparison, Tennessee’s and Marquette’s biggest missteps, South Carolina and Butler respectively, came at home), and North Carolina held a head-to-head win over Tennessee in the need to separate very close résumés. It requires you to turn your head a little bit, but I can at least see where they’re coming from.
The only other big shockers were Iowa State down at #11 overall, Alabama a full seed line ahead of Auburn, and San Diego State up at #14.
The first one can be easily explained, and it’s that dreadful non-conference strength of schedule number that the Cyclones possess, now sitting at 323rd. That leads me to believe that NCSOS will serve a pretty important purpose, and could mean disaster for a couple teams down at the bubble later down the road.
Alabama ranking 9th and Auburn 13th still doesn’t seem to make much sense, unless the numbers that the committee looked at on Thursday morning in their final seed list scrub hadn’t updated to include Auburn’s Wednesday night drubbing of South Carolina, mainly because the two teams were near inseparable in their quadrant victories, metrics, and head-to-head split against each other. Maybe you give the Crimson Tide the slight for playing a more challenging schedule, but the full seed line gap still feels a little questionable. At least the gap looks much better after Saturday’s game, when Alabama dropped 100 on Texas A&M while Auburn floundered at home against Kentucky.
San Diego State placing 14th, though surprising, I think is an awfully good thing. That’s a mid-major getting respect for a clean profile, even if their team sheet lacks the “super high-end” wins of the other protected seeds. The Aztecs played a tough schedule, won all of their games outside of Q1, went 5-6 in Q1 games with two in Q1A outside of Viejas Arena, and had top-17 metrics across the boards, save for BPI and its hatred of Mountain West teams. (Glad the committee seems to be disregarding that outlier number like in years past.) I think that’s a good indicator for other fairly “clean” mid-major team sheets (Dayton, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Grand Canyon, etc.) that don’t have those “oomph” victories but look pretty good otherwise.
We apply what we learned from the top 16 reveal into today’s bracket like a good bracketologist should, while also accounting for the results of the weekend. Some may turn their nose at Purdue holding on to #1 overall after their loss to Ohio State while UConn obliterated 2 seed Marquette just a day prior, but the Boilermakers still have a stronghold on the #1 spot in both results metrics, played a top-10 schedule in non-conference and overall, and remain a perfect 7-0 in Quad 1A games. It’s going to take a lot to knock them off the top spot.
You can see where everyone else placed in the bracket below. Enjoy the Bauertology projection for Monday, Feb. 19, and ask your questions and concerns as always!
