Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 3/5/24

Posted byDJ BauerPosted inBubble WatchTags:, ,

Let the madness begin!

The first Bauer’s Bubble Watch of March 2024 is here, and so is the college basketball postseason, as the ASUN tournament began its march to the madness on Monday night. Though I don’t track eliminations here on BBW, we can firmly cross two teams off the tournament-hopeful list with both Kennesaw State and Florida Gulf Coast falling in the ASUN’s opening round. Better luck next year!

There’s a ton more mid-major tournament play to enjoy this week with the Horizon, Sun Belt, and Patriot League all starting up on Tuesday night, though for Bauer’s Bubble Watch purposes, the conference tournament talk doesn’t really ramp up until next week (outside of keeping an eye on James Madison in the SB, and the oh-so important final few games of Arch Madness this weekend). For now, it’s all about firming up those power conference at-large bids at the conclusion of the regular season.

And the field itself is starting to look pretty firm. Today, we’re able to add five new locks to the Bauer’s Bubble Watch ranks with 13 more teams trailing in “safe” territory, leaving us with just, give or take, eight open spots for teams on the bubble to fill. Here’s how the full breakdown looks:

  • Lock: 25 teams
  • Safe: 13 teams
  • Bubble: 19 teams (for 8 available spots)

It’s getting serious now, folks. And it’ll be even more so a week from now when Selection Sunday is mere days away. Try to contain your excitement.

(Or don’t. It’s college freakin’ basketball, for Pete’s sake.)

ACC

So those jokes about the ACC being a three-bid league at maximum… They’re getting scarily close to not being jokes anymore. The good news is that it will not drop any further than that; even Clemson’s somewhat-expected letdown loss at Notre Dame on Saturday presents no danger to the Tigers’ tournament case. But beyond that? Virginia is playing with fire by losing every game by a billion points, Wake Forest is back on the outside looking in after an 0-2 week, and both Pitt and new addition Syracuse are fringe bubble cases at best. This has gotten pretty ugly pretty quickly, guys. Let’s close out this season on a high note, eh?

  • Lock: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
  • Safe:
  • Bubble: Virginia, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Pittsburgh

Virginia: Well, after Virginia’s 73-48 pantsing in Durham on Saturday, the Cavaliers failed to reach the 50-point threshold for the fourth time in the last five tries, with only a meager 72-68 escape at NET 100 Boston College last Wednesday preventing the bottom from falling out completely. This does not look like a tournament team by any stretch of the imagination, but as always, it’s the résumé, not “how they look” that matters. And the Cavaliers’ résumé is still pretty alright: 34.5 results metric average, 8-9 in Quad 1/2 with two key victories outside of Charlottesville (Clemson, Florida), and nary a bad loss thanks to Notre Dame’s recent rise. But the committee isn’t going to forget the fact that when the Cavs lose, they get absolutely waxed, with every single one of their nine defeats coming by double digits. Virginia is fortunate to be projected as a First Four team right now; they need to turn the ship around immediately in order to stay there.

Wake Forest: From the elation of vindication, right back into the mire of the decade prior. Wake Forest finally appeared to be on the right side of the cut line after the win over Duke, their first in Quad 1 to match what the underlying efficiency numbers had been saying about the Demon Deacons all season. But it immediately goes in the can as they follow up that inspired act with two straight road losses to non-contenders Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. That sinks Wake Forest to 3-11 overall in games not played at the Joel, which, paired with a 1-6 record in Quad 1, a résumé average north of 50, and a sub-240 non-con SOS, seems like a deal-breaker for Wake’s at-large case. They’re basically the opposite of Virginia; Wake Forest looks like the better team, but the Cavs would be more likely to make the field at present moment because they have the better tournament résumé. That might seem unfair, but it’s not like the Deacs haven’t had their chances to right that wrong. Time is running out in Winston-Salem. Gotta make this final week against Georgia Tech and Clemson count.

Syracuse: Darn Syracuse is a persistent bunch. Even post-Boeheim, the Orange remain fascinated with the bubble, and I’ve got no choice but to add them to the page after a 2-0 week has them at 18-10 overall with both results metrics placing inside the top 40 (36th in KPI, 40th in SOR). Granted, I still think an at-large Orange is a stretch; this is a team that has a scoring margin of +6 across an entire season and thusly ranks extremely low in every quality metric known to man (as well as the NET, in which their ranking of 83rd would be an all-time low for a non-automatic-bid selection). They’ve got a long way to go to prove to the selection committee that they’re not just the pretender that their efficiency numbers think they are. It starts with a trip to Clemson on Tuesday evening. Book that one as a must-win.

Pittsburgh: For the third straight week, Pittsburgh is about as far out as I’m willing to stretch the bubble. I’ve stated before all the reasons why an at-large invite for the Panthers is a long shot—the sub-60 résumé metrics, the 343rd-ranked NCSOS, having as many Quad 3 losses as Quad 1 wins, et cetera, et cetera. And yet, I remained fascinated with Pitt’s 7-4 road record, predictives now creeping into the top 40, and enormous victories at Virginia and Duke. There’s a case to be made here if you turn your head just the right way. The remaining opportunities don’t afford much in the way of quality (Q3 home contests against Florida State and NC State), but if Pitt can escape the week unscathed to reach 21-10 overall ahead of the ACC tournament, then the discussion remains open. We’ve seen stranger things happen.

BIG 12

Now that’s more like it! Last week, I lamented how BYU was very obviously a great basketball team, one capable of running with the best in Division I… but also one that rarely achieved such a result, or could with any kind of consistency. Well, no longer! The Cougars did the unthinkable, winning in Allen Fieldhouse last Tuesday to snap the Jayhawks’ 19-game home winning streak, before following that up with a spirited come-from-behind victory back home in Provo against TCU. And now we can confirm it: BYU is guaranteed to go dancing in year one as a Big 12 team. Extremely impressive.

Also, I’m popping Kansas State for now, the Wildcats still sporting a sub-60 average on both the résumé and efficiency side with just a 7-12 record across the first two quadrants. Go do what BYU did last week on Tuesday night (you know, win at Kansas), then get back to me.

  • Lock: Houston, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, BYU
  • Safe: Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma
  • Bubble:

Texas Tech: I’ve been operating under the assumption for weeks now that Texas Tech, a team that has gone far beyond its preseason expectations with a first-year head coach and turnover-laden roster, would eventually do enough to secure its March Madness bid. And they just kind of… haven’t? Ever since I wrote about how rejuvenated this program had looked following that 29-point stomping of Kansas, the Red Raiders have been stuck in neutral, dropping games that they really shouldn’t be dropping (at UCF, home vs. Texas) and just eking out the necessary victories to keep their seed from tumbling. Even Saturday’s win in Morgantown was a desperate affair in which Tech trailed for 75% of the game before reeling off a late 13-2 run to leave with the W. Again, those are forgivable sins for a new-look team, but they’re not how you want to go about your business when an NCAA Tournament invite has yet to be locked up! Just win in Stillwater on Tuesday, and I’ll feel a whole lot better about the situation.

Texas: Texas was a second-half collapse in Waco away from changing the course of its entire season in the span of seven days. I had dropped the Longhorns into bubble territory last week fresh off their 86-67 spanking at Kansas, at which point their metrics looked a lot gloomier than the other Big 12 at-large hopefuls comprising this section. But the ‘Horns netted the stunner in Lubbock, then surged late to keep Oklahoma State at bay four days later, and those bubble worries have since vanished. Heck, I was ready to put the cast-iron lock on Austin had Texas held on to its 14-point lead at Baylor on Monday evening… but by tone of this sentence, you can probably tell how that one went. Regardless, that crowded week of results lands Texas right back into the safe region, with a win over Oklahoma this Saturday likely to seal the deal.

TCU: TCU’s team sheet is kind of hilarious. At first, you see that TCU sits right in the middle of the NET’s at-large range at 39th overall, with metric averages sitting in the same 28 to 43 spectrum. Totally average stuff. Then you remember that the Horned Frogs possess the 326th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule, and you see their atrocious record in Quad 1 contests of 3-10. That’s really bad! And then you remember that TCU has two of the best wins any team has recorded all year—vs. Houston and at Baylor—and notice that those 10 losses in Quad 1 are their only 10 losses; they’re perfect across the other three quadrants. That’s really good! So what the hell are you supposed to make of TCU’s résumé? I’m not entirely sure! Though I do think the mantra that I’ve echoed throughout their blurb week after week remains true: don’t test the bubble with that NCSOS number, and just keep winning the ones you’re supposed to when the opportunities present themselves. At West Virginia and vs. UCF to end the season would certainly fall into that category.

Oklahoma: Sometimes my genius knows no bounds. Remember last week when I said that Javian McCollum’s buzzer beater in Stillwater could have the potential to save Oklahoma’s season down the line? Well, wouldn’t you know it—that one bucket is the only thing between the Sooners and an 0-5 record in the most important stretch of the season. It’s hard to fault Oklahoma too much for losing at Hilton Coliseum, the modern-day equivalent of the Thunderdome for visiting teams, and for falling in a tight one at home against 1 seed Houston, but in this meat grinder of a league, the wins have got to come from somewhere other than the teams ranked 100th or worse in the NET, and that’s something that the Sooners haven’t done in nearly a month. I still think they’re safely in at present moment, but as a projected 9 or 10 seed, it’s about as far as the safety zone reaches. Gotta finish strong with winnable games against Cincinnati and Texas still on the docket.

BIG EAST

It’s been fun, Butler. The Bulldogs have undoubtedly been the most pleasant surprise of any Big East group, far exceeding their second-to-last-in-league preseason expectations with a handful of stunners against Marquette, Creighton, and the like. But the bubble has burst after this five-game skid, capped off by a 23-point home loss to St. John’s to leave the Bulldogs at 9-13 overall (once you remove the Quad 4 fluff) and with metrics in or approaching the 70s. Not even Saturday’s pick-me-up win over DePaul can fix that. It’s Big East tournament-or-bust now. A sad farewell for Butler in 2024, but I look forward to seeing these guys return as an at-large regular in the near future. This is a program with an optimistic look on life for the first time in a while.

  • Lock: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
  • Safe:
  • Bubble: Villanova, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Providence

Villanova: Well, well, well. Look who’s finally started to play like Villanova basketball. All Bubble Watch long, I’ve gone on about how lifeless Villanova looks in modern day—a team going through the motions, completely unlike the annual March powerhouse that it was just a half-decade prior. But color me surprised: the Wildcats are looking like a tournament team once again on the heels of a momentum-building blowout of Georgetown and a massively important win at Providence on Saturday, if not just for putting Villanova ahead of the Friars in the Big East bubble pecking order. Now up to 26th in NET and top 25 in both predictive metrics, the tournament dream is alive and well. It’s still far from safety, though; a 52.5 résumé average is fairly unsightly, and those three Quad 3 losses to Philly-area rivals aren’t disappearing any time soon. But the Cats might just pull this thing off yet. Two Quad 1 games remain: at Seton Hall, vs. Creighton. Let’s see what happens.

St. John’s: Villanova’s sudden surge is really good for two teams: Villanova (obviously), and conference rival St. John’s. The Red Storm’s head-to-head sweep of Nova should hold serious water when the two are evidently brought up together in the discussion room, especially with SJU’s win over the Cats in MSG now joining the victory at Finneran in Quad 1. Indeed; Villanova alone is propping up St. John’s profile big-time. (Who ever said that Big East teams can’t help each other out from time to time?) Villanova staying that strong on the team sheet is critical, as is last Wednesday’s 82-59 win in Hinkle, as the Red Storm’s résumé resides squarely in Bubbleville—probably just on the right side of the cut line—and the remaining opportunities (at DePaul, vs. Georgetown) provide no room for improvement. So now you’ve got two teams to root for, SJU fans! How lucky.

Seton Hall: Conversely, St. John’s fans should be pulling hard for anyone playing Seton Hall: a team that possesses its own head-to-head sweep over its rival an hour East. But while the Wildcats and Red Storm have the efficiency numbers to conceal the middling results metrics, there’s nowhere to hide for the Hall. The Pirates now rank a desperate 60th in KenPom and 68th in NET to go with a 51.5 résumé average and a sub-.500 record in Quad 1-3 games. That ain’t pretty. Seton Hall just needed to keep things respectable last week against Creighton and UConn to stay in the committee’s favor; they instead got wiped off the face of the Earth in both contests. This is a team that now sits either right inside the field or right outside of it, depending on how much weight you put on those early winter wins over UConn and Marquette in comparison to their sagging metrics. Wednesday’s rematch against Villanova in Newark is basically the season.

Providence: Providence has been one heck of a story in 2024, but that story seems to be approaching a bitter end. It’s no doubt impressive what the Friars have been able to accomplish in the two months since their leader Bryce Hopkins went down for the year, rallying behind the formidable one-two punch of Devin Carter and Josh Oduro for season-defining victories over Creighton, Xavier, Seton Hall, and more. But that steam has just about run out with this past week’s blowout loss in Milwaukee and heart-sinking home defeat to Villanova, likely dropping the Friars out of the field with metrics approaching the 60s and a hideous 8-11 record against non-Q4 opposition. Outside of a lengthy Big East tournament run a week from now, there seems to be only one course of action for resuscitating the Friars’ case, and that’s pulling the big one: upsetting hated rival UConn this Saturday. Godspeed.

BIG TEN

So I’m totally panicking about locking Wisconsin last week, right? Hahaha… no. Look, the Badgers haven’t played good basketball in over a month. I get that. But the season is more than a month long, and as I’ve surely stated many times before, the selection committee cares about what you did in December just as much as they care about what you did last week. Just so happens that before this dry spell that Wisconsin was 16-4 from November through January, racking up 12 Quad 1/2 wins (still tied for seventh best of any team) and top-10 metrics that have since cooled to still-respectable levels in the mid-20s. Fret about an early postseason exit for Wisconsin all you want. But the Badgers are not missing the tournament.

  • Lock: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin
  • Safe: Northwestern, Nebraska
  • Bubble: Michigan State, Iowa

Northwestern: Good thing that Northwestern molded its at-large résumé into fine shape prior to this week, because the Wildcats have undergone some pretty brutal injury luck at the worst possible time. Ty Berry being out for the season is one thing, but glue guy Ryan Langborg and post presence Matthew Nicholson potentially missing games in the homestretch is a whole ‘nother pickle (and a big reason why the Cats fell at home to Iowa on Saturday). But, again, the work done up to this point won’t curdle because of some boo-boos here and there; Northwestern still has a 10-8 Q1/Q2 record with a win over #1 overall Purdue and résumé numbers clearly indicating a tournament team. Just don’t completely unravel against Michigan State and Minnesota this week, and the Wildcats will be just fine.

Nebraska: I really, really want to say that the Cornhuskers have firmed up their tournament spot, but they just keep giving me reason for pause. OK, so you finally won a conference road game by winning at Indiana, great, can you please make it two in a row? No? You’re gonna lose at Ohio State instead? OK, then. Sigh. Granted, at Ohio State is not a bad loss. (And now winners of three straight, the Buckeyes aren’t that far off the at-large radar themselves.) But it’s just another reason to be iffy on a team that is 3-8 overall beyond the confines of Pinnacle Bank Arena and sports a non-conference SOS swimming with the worst of them. That shouldn’t be enough reason to worry, considering Nebraska is one of just three to knock off Purdue while also sporting the metrics of a typical at-large selection, but you just don’t feel great about it either way. Win at Michigan on Sunday for me, won’t you? Pretty please?

Michigan State: Alright, Sparty. You’ve left me no choice. KenPom and NET have had your back all season long, but I don’t gotta defend you no more—you’re on the bubble! Pretty predictive metrics can only take you so far (just ask Wake Forest) when the actual results themselves have been so underwhelming. After things finally appeared to be on the proper course in Izzoville back on Feb. 17, Michigan State finds itself 0-3 since and now 17-12 overall, sliding back toward the range of a 10 or 11 seed in the bracket. None of those three losses (vs. Iowa, vs. Ohio State, at Purdue) are remotely bad in a vacuum, but when added all together, they perfectly summate the problem that the Spartans have had all year: they’re just not winning these games that they usually do. And winning matters! It’s kind of the most important thing! So Sparty now finds itself in bubble “timeout” until it starts winning again. You’ve got a banged-up Northwestern coming to Breslin on Wednesday. Now’s your chance.

Iowa: Welcome to the Watch, Iowa! I had previously toyed with the prospect of adding the Hawkeyes to the hallowed ground of Bauer’s Bubble Watch after some eye-catching wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State but had ultimately decided against it after their upset bid in Champaign fell short. But today is a new day, and the Hawkeyes certainly deserve a place on the page after besting Northwestern in Evanston for their eighth Quad 1/2 victory, with the resulting metrics (51.5 résumé average, 46.5 predictive average) now in doable territory. Iowa’s overall profile is still in a similar spot to Providence above or Utah below (that is to say, likely outside the field), but with three Quad 1 victories in the span of two weeks, their case has gotten interesting quite hastily. Can they make it four in the run-back game against Illinois on Saturday?

MOUNTAIN WEST

Well, if we were shooting for #5BidMWC, I’d say mission just about accomplished. Utah State is now a lock after dodging Q3/Q4 bombs from Fresno State and Air Force (probably don’t want to lose at San Jose State this week, but we’re fine either way), and three more Mountain West teams are well on their way to joining the Aggies and Aztecs in guarantee heaven. Problem is, we’re not shooting for #5BidMWC. It’s been all gas, no brakes on #6BidMWC since we started this thing. And that prospect has gotten a bit tricky with one troublesome pack of Lobos, as you’ll soon read.

  • Lock: San Diego State, Utah State
  • Safe: Boise State, Nevada, Colorado State
  • Bubble: New Mexico

Boise State: This is a steadfast bunch of Broncos, I’ll tell you what. Even when Boise State faced its share of setbacks, like losing two home games in the span of a week-and-a-half for the first time in eons, or getting walloped in back-to-back visits to Colorado State and Utah State, the Broncos didn’t budge, firmly flattening all Quad 3 and 4 opposition in the way since and truly cementing a safe spot in the tournament by completing the season sweep of New Mexico in Boise on Saturday night. Their current NET ranking of 24th is as high as it’s been all season, and though the full metric profile isn’t quite as convinced (still just 47th in SOR), the rest of this team sheet (6-3 on the road, 5-4 in Quad 1, 7-4 against a top-30 non-con) is. Take either of the two remaining games against Nevada and San Diego State, and the Broncos will be good as gold.

Nevada: Now that’s a hell of a way to get off the bubble! March arrived a couple nights early in Fort Collins last Tuesday, as Nevada notched what is perhaps its marquee win of the season at Colorado State, thanks to a half-court bank-in buzzer beater, courtesy of Jarod Lucas, who only had the chance to fire off that prayer because the 90% free-throw shooter had missed three out of four such tries in the preceding half-minute. Bananas! (Or Onions, as Bill Raftery would say.) That wild victory has the Wolf Pack sitting prettier than they have all year, now the owners of five Quad 1 wins, a 31.5 résumé average, and an impressive 7-3 record in true road contests. The lukewarm predictive metrics and poor NCSOS give enough reason to prevent putting the lock on Nevada for now, but so long as the Pack doesn’t fall apart in the final week of MWC play, they’ll be a-OK.

Colorado State: In a normal year, an overall record of 19-9 with a quality average of 53.0 and no road wins better than NET #179 would be the kind of mid-major team sheet that gets tossed in the trash immediately. But as detailed frequently throughout this column, the 2023-24 Mountain West is no ordinary mid-major. For as much as Colorado State has struggled recently, pairing three consecutive losses with an escape against Quad 4 Wyoming on Saturday, the Rams don’t appear to be in any imminent bubble danger. That’s the beautiful thing about living in a smaller conference this unusually strong. You can have your screw-ups from time to time and still be alright. And it’s not like Colorado State is just some pretender, either; they beat Colorado, Washington, Boston College, and, most importantly, Creighton in the 86th-most difficult non-confrence schedule. This is a good team, and they’re not being punished for their road bumps as much as a mid-major usually is. And that’s the way it should be.

New Mexico: If Colorado State is going through some road bumps, then New Mexico is full-on swerving around the tight corners of a mountain cliffside road. The Lobos are not afforded the same sympathy as CSU for their recent decline, featuring Quad 4 faceplant against Air Force and ensuing road loss at Boise State, for the simple reasons that: 1) New Mexico does not have a Creighton-esque non-con win, their best being over UC Irvine, and 2) they only have five wins across the first two quadrants to counteract their bottom-tier mishaps, well shy of the Rams’ eight. The Lobos are straddling the tightrope between in and out right now; if not for that fateful 1-point victory in Reno on Feb. 13, there wouldn’t be any argument to include them at all. #6BidMWC hinges on you, New Mexico. You’ve got vs. Fresno State, at Utah State, and the Mountain West tournament to shore it up. Get to work.

PAC-12

The words that many a faithful Coug fan have been waiting to hear for 16 years: Washington State is an NCAA Tournament lock! The absence between now and the Cougs’ latest March Madness appearance is now old enough to drive, but at least Wazzu was able to put the kibosh on its tourney drought before it had reached drinking age, accomplished via knocking out USC and UCLA at home last week to avoid any potential résumé damage. Enjoy this one, Cougars! You’ve earned it.

  • Lock: Arizona, Washington State
  • Safe:
  • Bubble: Utah, Colorado

Utah: As stated last week, Utah’s survival on the bubble is a two-step process. Step 1 was a success: the Utes manhandled both California-based visitors in the Huntsman Center last week, not doing anything to improve their résumé but at least staying par for the course and giving their efficiency numbers a little nudge in the right direction. Step 2 now begins, and it’s much more difficult: the Utes must now go to Oregon and complete the Beaver State sweep of the Beavers and Ducks. While neither win would be especially weighty by itself, the two in tandem would be huge, improving Utah’s soft road record to a much more substantial 4-7 while steering clear of a damaging Quad 3 loss and adding another mark to the Q1 victory column. It’s certainly achievable, though the Utes have had just one win outside of Salt Lake City since November. Will they finally rise to the occasion?

Colorado: Might as well just copy-paste what I wrote for Utah into Colorado’s blurb. It’s tough for me to say which of the two Pac-12 bubblers is ahead of the other in the at-large picture, given that the Buffaloes have the clear advantage in the team sheet numbers (30th in NET, 29th in KenPom, 44.5 résumé average) but lag behind in where it arguably matters more—the quality win department—possessing a single Quad 1 victory to not-in-contention Washington in comparison to Utah’s four Q1 triumphs, all over teams in the tournament picture. In either case, the message is the same: get it done at Oregon and Oregon State this week, and we’ll have a real case to monitor as the Buffs pack their bags for Vegas. Lose either game, and the Pac-12 tournament becomes much more meaningful.

SEC

You have to admire a team that just goes out there and wins nearly every time they take the court, no matter what. And that’s exactly what South Carolina has done. For the better part of this season, the predictive metrics have been extremely wary of the Gamecocks, those thoughts summarized to the extent of, “Erm, actually, South Carolina is pretty mediocre for an at-large contender and is far exceeding expectations… they should regress any day now.” And every time, South Carolina responds with, “Shut up, nerd—how about I go out and win anyway?” And that’s what they do. They were underdogs at Texas A&M on Wednesday. They won. They were underdogs at home against Florida on Saturday (depending on your metric of choice). They won. Lamont Paris and company have no time for your silly numbers games! They just freakin’ win. And for that, you just have to tip your cap. Welcome to March, South Carolina.

Elsewhere, I’m sticking the pin in Texas A&M. Yes, the Aggies boast a fairly impressive collection of victories, but they’re not enough to offset a total showing of 11-13 against Quad 1 through Quad 3 (including a 2-4 record in the latter category, yuck) and metrics that are no longer viable for a tournament team. There’s still time to re-inflate their bubble with a pair of Quad 2 matches right on the Quad 1 borderline in Mississippi this week, but a 2-0 trip to the Magnolia State seems like the only way out.

  • Lock: Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina
  • Safe: Florida, Mississippi State
  • Bubble: Ole Miss

Florida: I’m going to hold out for one more week before locking Florida, just to be on the safe side. This is probably being pedantic for a team that tracks as a 7 seed in most circles with team sheet numbers comfortably inside the top 35, but consider this: What if Florida goes 0-2 this week? The schedule is vs. Alabama, then at Vanderbilt. Alabama is always a tough out, no matter the location, and Vanderbilt is an ugly Quad 3 loss waiting to happen, one that has either nipped (Texas A&M) or come close to nipping (Alabama) some of the conference’s at-large hopefuls in Memorial Gym over the course of the season. It’s unlikely, but it’s not out of the question, and it would leave the Gators feeling a bit precarious heading into the SEC tournament. So, just win either one of the two, and we’ll put the lock on this thing, no questions asked.

Mississippi State: Disappointing week down in Starkville, what with a buzzer beater floater from Kentucky, and a typical Neville Arena beatdown from Auburn sending Mississippi State to 2-7 in road contests, but the outlook for the Bulldogs remains largely the same. This is still a pretty clean team sheet with every single metric ranging from 30th to 38th, home victories over Tennessee and Auburn glued to the topmost quadrant, surprisingly handy neutral-court wins over Washington State and Northwestern, and a single Quad 4 blemish that the committee shouldn’t rake MSU over the coals for. A win over Texas A&M or always-saucy South Carolina this week would go a long way for the Bulldogs’ seeding, but worries about the bubble are still a ways away, so long as Mississippi State isn’t a total no-show in either game.

Ole Miss: At 78th in the NET and 5-9 in Quad 1/2, I really don’t think Ole Miss has much of a tournament case, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t include a team that still bewilderingly ranks among the top 40 in both résumé metrics: typically a green light for postseason entrance. But, c’mon; you’re gonna tell me that a team that has done nothing but pick on the 324th-ranked non-conference schedule and go 2-6 over the past month with the only victories coming over Missouri—still-winless-in-SEC-play Missouri—deserves to go dancing? I don’t think so. Something must be done to reconcile those oddly high résumé numbers so I don’t have to waste my time writing about what is pretty clearly not a tournament-level team anymore. If the Rebels can just go 0-2 against Georgia and Texas A&M this week, they’d save me a lot of trouble.

OTHERS

Ahhhh, Gonzaga and the lock status. March just wouldn’t feel right without it. This has been hands-down one of the most swift and impressive turnarounds in Bauer’s Bubble Watch history. Remember, the Zags were still well in bubble territory just a week ago, needing one or maybe two wins in the final week of the regular season to feel any semblance of safety heading to the WCC tournament. Well, the Bulldogs didn’t just win both of their Quad 1 road contests against San Francisco and Saint Mary’s, they dominated, winning both by at least 13 points. Pair those results with that monumental victory in Lexington from mid-February and suddenly this profile looks just good as or maybe even better than prior at-large lock Dayton. So, yeah. How to Go from Bubble Team to Lock in the Span of About Three Days: The Gonzaga Story. It’s an NYT bestseller waiting to happen.

  • Lock: Dayton, Gonzaga
  • Safe: Saint Mary’s, Florida Atlantic
  • Bubble: Indiana State, Drake, Memphis, Princeton, James Madison

Saint Mary’s: With Gonzaga now cemented into the field, I really, really want to show the same love for Saint Mary’s… but my better judgment tells me to hold off. I don’t foresee a future where a team that went 9-0 in true road games over the course of the season whilst gathering the quality metrics of a top-25 team could be left out of March, especially with only one possible remaining bad loss to be suffered as the WCC tournament readies to commence. But we also can’t just ignore those two Quad 3 home defeats from 2023 stinking up the team sheet, alongside a results metric average of 49.5—that number alone is extremely concerning. Since the NET era began in 2019, no team with a results average of over 49 has gotten anything better than an 11 seed. I’m willing to bet that Saint Mary’s bucks the trend… but I won’t bet my life on it. Let’s do the safe thing and wait one more week.

Florida Atlantic: It’d be really nice if the Owls could quit putzing around against vastly inferior AAC teams. We can tell just how capable this FAU squad is of causing some havoc come March for some high majors—we saw them do it last year all month long, and we saw them do it this year against top-level tests like Arizona with essentially the same roster. So why on earth is Florida Atlantic struggling to put away Tulane, of all teams? In Boca Raton?? FAU needs to take a page out of its own book and look at what they did a year ago, when they tightened up down the stretch to mop up their last four Conference USA games by an average of 25 points. I know the American is a slightly tougher conference, but that’s no excuse for a team this talented to have to sweat it out nearly every night. The Owls are still rather far from complete safety, and a huge two games (at North Texas, vs. Memphis) remain.

Indiana State: The Indiana State Sycamores, your Missouri Valley champions for the first time in 24 years! What a season it’s been in Terre Haute, with Josh Schertz and Robbie Avila (and his many fantastic nicknames, “Cream Abdul-Jabbar,” “Larry Blurred,” “Larry Nerd,” whichever one suits your fancy) combining for one of the most fabulous mid-major stories you’ll find anywhere in America. And the story isn’t over; though things looked bleak for a second after those stunning losses to Illinois State and Southern Illinois one right after the other, the Sycamores are now back in an OK spot, holding onto a #29 NET ranking, a 40 results average and 43.5 predictive average, and a 5-4 Quad 1/2 record. It’s bubbly, for sure, but given the good work that Indiana State has pumped out with utmost consistency this year, it seems like the type of profile that the committee could give the benefit of the doubt should ISU fail to come out on top in Arch Madness. Still, probably don’t want to chance that scenario. Do what you can to ensure that big funny goggles guy gets to play in March Madness.

Drake: Two-bid MVC lives another day! Since Darian DeVries took the helm, Drake has been the Valley’s model of consistency, with two NCAAT invites already under his belt and a possible third in the making in 2024. Thanks to some good work in the final week of the regular season, that being an essential Quad 2 win over rival Bradley and a Tucker Devries masterclass to escape UIC in triple overtime, the Bulldogs are not far behind the Sycamores when it comes to how the profile stacks up: 44.0 résumé average, 5-4 in Quad 1/2… the differences lie in Indiana State’s superior efficiency output (Bulldogs only rank 48th in NET and 55th in KenPom) and Drake’s better top-end performance (3-1 in Quad 1 to ISU’s 1-3). Any way you slice it, these are two good teams facing similar at-large circumstances. In a just world, they will meet in the Arch Madness title game, and both the winner and loser will be included in the final March Madness bracket. Let’s hope that world is ours.

Memphis: Penny Hardaway’s wild ride continues. Yes, the Memphis Tigers, the very same team that lost at home to NET #236 Rice and got blasted 106-79 by SMU in the span of a month, are still in this thing. Sunday’s bonkers contest against UAB is probably the perfect microcosm of their season: the Tigers gave up 61 points in the first half on their own floor, at which point the dirt piled on their grave had already been packed into place, only for Memphis to completely flip the script in part two, scoring 60 second-half points of their own while only conceding 26. I mean, this line score with a couple minutes left to play might be the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen in my college-basketball-watching years. But the important thing is that the Tigers came out on top, and their at-large hopes live to tell the tale, with a massive clash in Boca Raton looming this weekend. Pull that one off, and we might just see Memphis in March yet.

Princeton: These Tigers are a lot more boring than the ones above, for the reason that they just kind of win without all the ridiculous pageantry that Memphis likes to puts on. Though it hasn’t exactly been a bed of roses in Princeton either. Things were looking desperate for the Ivy League’s lone at-large looker as they trailed Cornell in their own building on Saturday with less than five minutes to go, a loss sure to pop Princeton’s bubble for good. But they dug deep, pulled it out, and remain on Bauer’s Bubble Watch as a result. I still think it’s a long shot, given that the Tigers don’t even have a single opponent listed in the Quad 1 column, win or lose, but even the most casual of college basketball fans has to respect the work that they’ve done (10-3 on the road, 12-3 in Q2/Q3 games) and the metrics (33rd in SOR, 42nd in KPI) that they’ve acquired. Maybe the selection committee will give the same kudos? Who knows.

James Madison: I want to believe that the committee will really give James Madison a good, hard look should they falter in the Sun Belt tournament, but I have serious doubts. Yes, JMU is an incredible 14-2 in games played outside of Harrisonburg and have a powerhouse win at Michigan State that Princeton lacks. But there’s a couple key differences between the Tigers, a long shot, and the Dukes, the longest of long shots. For one thing, Princeton is in line for an Ivy League regular season title. JMU doesn’t even have that, with their two losses to Appalachian State handing the Mountaineers that honor instead. And also: Princeton mostly racked up its impressive numbers against Quad 2 and 3 teams. James Madison’s gaudy 27-3 count is reduced to 7-3 when you factor in their 20 Quad 4 victories, the most of any team this season, and what would be, by far, a record for an NCAA Tournament at-large. I just don’t think the selection committee is going to have much respect for a schedule that soft, no matter how well JMU has performed against it. Though I have been wrong before, and that’s why the Dukes stay on the page. But let’s not test it. Just win the automatic bid.

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