Good LORD, this bubble is gross.
Sorry if that’s not the most couth way to introduce this week’s Bauertology, but it simply has to be said. We’ve lamented about bad bubbles in the past, to the point that it’s basically become a yearly tradition, but they truly have never been this bad.
You want proof? Just look at Ohio State. On Thursday night, the Buckeyes put up an all-time stinker, falling by 21 points at home to Northwestern. Twenty-one points. In Columbus. To Brooks Barnhizer-less Northwestern. That’s the kind of loss that should automatically disqualify Ohio State from at-large contention, right? In years past, it surely would; the Buckeyes are now just 7-12 in Quad 1/2 and 2-0 in Quad 3, meaning their 9-12 Q1-3 record would be two games below the previous precedent for what is considered acceptable.
But in 2025, where mega-conferences have swallowed up all the power and soon-to-be all the bids, Ohio State remains not just alive but in the field entirely. And they’re not the only culprit; Oklahoma, who is now 3-10 in their inaugural SEC season and hasn’t won a game since Feb. 1, is still in the field. Nebraska, who just got crushed by Penn State to the tune of a 17-point beatdown in State College, is still in the field. Heck, the Cornhuskers are safely in. They’re not even in a First Four game!
How can this be? How can this mediocrity persist? To that question, I ask you: Who on the outside are you putting in instead? Arkansas, with their 4-11 Q1/2 record? Xavier or North Carolina, with their single Quad 1 victories? Georgia, with their 1-6 road record and 234th-ranked non-conference schedule? SMU, who, less than a month from Selection Sunday, has recorded neither a single Quad 1 win nor a single game played outside of Dallas against a tournament team? This is the problem! This is how mediocrity persists! We need to fill out our 68-team field with 68 teams somehow, and there aren’t 68 teams deserving of being in it. (Oh, but tell me more about how we need to expand the tournament… That’s a rant for another day.)
So, I’m sure your next thought is, “But Mr. Bracket Guy, if all these major conference teams stink, then why not put in some more mid-majors who are having awesome seasons instead?” And to that point, I say: I’m trying. Historical evidence is working against me here—although the selection committee has squeezed in some above-and-beyond mid-majors from time to time (such as 2019 Belmont, 2021 Drake, and 2022 Wyoming), there have been just as many near-misses: 2016 Valparaiso and Monmouth, 2017 Illinois State, 2019 UNC Greensboro, 2024 Indiana State… et cetera, et cetera. This is why I’m a bit hesitant to show more love to these small-conference teams. But with the major conference bubblers continuing to soil themselves over and over, I’m basically left with no choice but to break away from history. You’ll notice that I have both Drake and VCU above my at-large cut line at present moment, with UC San Diego also slotting in as my final team in the field. The fact that both of the Tritons’ metric averages are north of 50 and they have both a Q3 and Q4 loss on the team sheet gives me great reason to worry… but, like, an overall record of 21-4, a clip of 13-2 outside La Jolla, and a road win over a fellow at-large team in Utah State? How can I possibly say no to that? I wanted to give the same love to George Mason, but the Patriots are basically in the same boat without said all-important at-large win (best being over NET #74 Dayton), so they slot inside my first eight out for now.
This is the conundrum we’re faced with in 2025. History is going to be broken either way, and it’s up to us bracketologists to determine which way it’s going to break. That’s a pretty daunting exercise, given that we’re basically willingly putting ourselves up for public flogging, as no bracket we can craft at this point is going to satisfy everybody. Yet we challenge the unknown for the love of the game anyway!
With that introduction out of the way, let’s get to the Bauertology bracket for Friday, Feb. 21. As always, the automatic bids are chosen by which team ranks highest in its respective conference in my résumé metric BRCT. (You can read about the reasoning for that HERE from last week’s post.) This is also how we end up with a two-bid Big West for the first time, as UC Irvine remains BRCT’s team of choice, even after last night’s loss to CSUN. This is because BRCT doesn’t overreact to single-game results and properly recognizes that a singular loss to the NET #100 team should not be viewed as badly as other losses that could potentially fall into Quad 3, or repetitious losses to Quads 1 and 2. (If only we had that kind of nuance on committee team sheets right now.) And, hey, keeping the Anteaters in the field means that I don’t have to squeeze in another undeserving power conference team, so I’ll take that as a win!
