Just one more sleep. Then, when you wake up, the greatest month of the year will be here.
Folks, we are officially on March’s doorstep. The countdown to Selection Sunday has crept under 20, and the start of conference tournament play is now just three days away, as the ASUN kicks us off on Sunday with Central Arkansas vs. Stetson and North Florida vs. Austin Peay in the opening round.
Postseason basketball, back in our lives this weekend. If that sort of anticipation is not enough to convince you to join me in blasting this banger for approximately 24 straight hours tomorrow, then I’m not sure what will.
Of course, one of the most exciting bits about this final two-week buildup before selection day is seeing how the teams in and out of the field make their final pushes for inclusion. Over at Bauer’s Bubble Watch, I’ve already got 28 at-large locks meted out as of Monday (maybe closer to 30 now), meaning there are still about 15 or so spots to cement in this homestretch. Though there will be zaniness abound over this fortnight, don’t get too carried away—in looking back at my March 1 brackets each of the past two years, no teams beyond my Next Four Out made it into the final field as an at-large. Things are finally firming up in a real, consequential way.
As of today, 48 teams reside above my at-large cut line. I feel certain or close to it about 45 of them. Ohio State and Baylor do give me a bit of hesitation with their respective 16-13 and 15-12 records, though this tends to be the inside of the overall record cutoff point, and both have résumés that would otherwise support a bid.
The big thing I’m looking at is the very final spot in the field, which I currently have as a coin flip between Boise State and Georgia. I went back and forth on it for a considerable amount of time last night, weighing the pros and cons of each. Ultimately, I settled on the Broncos. Even though Boise’s results metric average of 52.7 would be a bit low for a bid, and those two Quad 3 losses are definitely a concern, they make up for it by being 7-6 in Quad 1/2 and 7-7 outside of Boise, possessing marquee non-conference wins (Saint Mary’s, Clemson) that have aged like wine, and having at least won on the road once against a Quad 1 opponent (Nevada). Georgia, meanwhile, would seem like a weird exclusion for a team that has wins over Florida, Kentucky, and St. John’s, with metrics (41.7 résumé, 38.3 quality) well within the typical range for a bid. But the Bulldogs are also the only team in the nation to lose 10 Quad 1A games—with three wins in that same category, that’s just too much losing against the best of the best. Throw in their 232nd-ranked non-conference schedule and 1-7 road record, the sole victory being over NET #116 Georgia Tech, and I feel like UGA may be the “example” made of despite their solid metrics: Don’t schedule a shoddy non-con then coast to a mediocre record against a superior conference!
These are the kinds of bubble battles that I look forward to sorting through over the next couple weeks. And when the bubble invariably shrinks as a result of both bid thieves and teams playing their way out of contention, it’ll only add to the fun.
Now, with March just about here, I think it’s the appropriate time to publish a full Bauertology posting schedule from now until Selection Sunday. Here’s what that will look like:
- Monday, March 3: Bauer’s Bubble Watch
- Wednesday, March 5: Bauertology
- Saturday, March 8: Bauertology
- Monday, March 10: Bauer’s Bubble Watch
- Wednesday, March 12: Bauertology
- Thursday, March 13: Final Bauer’s Bubble Watch(?) – TBD, if I have time
- Friday, March 14: Bauertology Live – Join me on Twitter as I live sort through the seed list, giving my detailed explanations for each choice)
- Saturday, March 15: Bauertology, based on Bauertology Live from the day prior
- Sunday, March 16: Final Bauertology
Busy couple weeks ahead, needless to say. I’ll be spending far too much time in front of a computer screen staring at little names and numbers, but the payoff will all be worth it when March Madness is finally here.
Without further delay, here are the new Bauertology bracket and seed list for Friday, Feb. 28! Automatic bids, as per usual, are chosen by which team in each conference ranks highest in my résumé metric BRCT (explanation for that in this prior post). Though, as conference tournaments progress and projected auto-bids are knocked out, I’ll adjust alongside it, settling on the highest remaining team in BRCT, until an actual conference champion and subsequent automatic bid is crowned.
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