It’s the moooost wonderful tiiiime of the yeeeeear!
Forgive my Christmas-like enthusiasm, but March really is like a second Christmas to me. My happy place is right here, feeling the winter finally thaw, sipping on shamrock shakes, and watching postseason college basketball for 30 days straight. It’s my favorite month of the year, and considering the phenomenon that March Madness is, I know I’m certainly not alone in that sentiment.
The countdown to Selection Sunday is now within two weeks, and that means that the mouthwatering March Madness appetizer that is conference tournament play is already upon us. As is usually the case, the ASUN tipped us off on Sunday night, where Stetson and North Florida officially bit the dust. (Feels like just yesterday we were talking about the Ospreys as a potential at-large team to watch after starting 3-0 with wins over South Carolina and Georgia Tech. Time doesn’t fly, it sprints.)
Much more of that conference tourney goodness will ensue, though for Bauer’s Bubble Watch purposes, most of the madness on that front will be coming next week when the power conferences get going. The Missouri Valley will be our only conference of at-large interest for now, as a champion will have already been named by the time the next BBW is published a week from now. By then, we’ll know if our at-large field will be the same size as it is today, or if it’ll have shrunk by one spot. The drama!
The enthusiasm that March brings with it carries over into the Watch this week, pushing aside last Monday’s worries about a boring bubble future (at least temporarily), as we have six new locks to name. The full breakdown spreads out like so:
The safe category has almost entirely vanished. That’s your telltale sign that the Madness is drawing ever nearer.
ACC
Is the ACC destined to be a three-bid league? Straits have been dire on the Atlantic Coast for the past half-decade, but they’ve never been this dire. Alas, my latest bracket from Friday morning was the first projection of mine all year to include just three teams. If that holds, it’d be the first ACC to get just three in the dance since 2000… Y’know, back when the league fielded just nine. Reminder: We have double that amount in present year. Just a travesty what has happened to the once-proudest conference in America. (At least we can all rely on each of Duke, Louisville, and Clemson to make it to the Elite Eight. Like clockwork.)
North Carolina: The ACC must truly be desperate to turn to North Carolina for help. Somehow, some way, the Tar Heels are looking like the league’s top hope at a fourth bid. Credit where it’s due—ever since a nail biter at Syracuse on Feb. 15, UNC has been far and away the ACC’s best bubble option, winning each of the subsequent four games against lesser opposition by 11 points or more. It’s been enough to raise their metric profile into plus territory, with both efficiency (38.3) and résumé (47.0) agreeing that the Heels are a worthwhile look for bracket consideration. It’s almost enough to make you second guess whether or not Carolina needs to beat Duke in the Dean Dome this weekend… almost. Then you remember that UNC is 1-10 against Quad 1, each of their three prior losses to the ACC’s trio of locks coming by double digits, and suddenly Saturday’s bout against the Blue Devils rightfully returns to being a gotta-have-it game. Maybe Carolina can do enough work in the ACC tournament to do without it, but given the dearth of quality in this conference, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Just win and make it all moot!
Wake Forest: An entire season does not boil down to one game. This is a sentiment that I’ve echoed many times across both Bauertology and Bauer’s Bubble Watch, and it always frustrates me when the national media disregards it, like they did on Saturday in Tennessee vs. Alabama, in which, according to the broadcasters, the winner HAD to be a 1 seed and the loser HAD be a 2 seed. Um, no, that’s not how this works, we’ve got a whole season of game data to work with, let’s not make hasty decisions based on the outcome of one game, please stop undermining the work we bracketologists do, thank you very much! Phew. ALL THAT SAID… Wake Forest’s season comes down to Monday night. I mean, how could it not? Ever since beating Michigan in the first week of the year, the Demon Deacons have spent the better part of four months futzing around, never once rising above Bubbleville. Even when things finally started to look good post-victory at SMU, Wake got right back to self-sabotage, dropping back-to-back Quad 3 contests against NC State and Virginia, nearly making it three in a row if not for Saturday’s late escape against Notre Dame. This is as bubbly a team sheet as it gets, with inherent quality metrics highly skeptical of bid (as low as 80th on that side of the aisle); it’s the résumé numbers still clinging to doable territory (46.3 average) that are keeping Wake’s bubble inflated, if only they can provide the proper push to erase the doubt elsewhere. And that’s why Monday’s trip to Cameron Indoor—a game that KenPom gives the Deacs a mere 2% chance of surviving—is so massive. Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out. Got it? Good.
SMU: Look, I know that the underlying metrics say that SMU is a good team on paper. I know that they’ve done pretty well away from home. But this just isn’t a tournament team. In seven opportunities to do anything of note against Quad 1 or Quad 2A competition, the Mustangs have folded like a lawn chair every single time, Saturday’s loss at Stanford being the latest data point to reinforce that trend. Nothing that SMU can do between now and the ACC tournament can change that narrative, and frankly, I’m not sure that they can do anything in the ACC tournament to change it either, short of winning the whole thing. Sometimes, you just have to put your foot down and recognize that the numbers aren’t always right. Anyway, win at Florida State on Saturday to earn a halfway-decent victory for the first time all season and maintain this extremely tenuous bubble case, or we’re done here.
BIG 12
I reiterate: There is not a team in the nation playing better basketball right now than BYU! If you sort T-Rank to count only games played since this six-game winning streak began on Feb. 11, the Cougars find themselves as one of the top three teams in the country, nestled right between near-1-seed locks Duke and Auburn. Pretty good company, methinks. With Saturday’s latest domination of West Virginia pushing BYU up to the top 32 in every metric but KPI, a mark backed by a 10-8 Quad 1/2 record with five of those wins coming outside of Provo, the Cougars are headed back to the Madness for the second straight season. Their final seed might look funny come selection day, given the bracketing principles that must be abided by in order to accommodate BYU abstaining from playing on Sundays, but wherever they land in the bracket, the team opposite will be none too happy. Dangerous, dangerous bunch.
West Virginia: West Virginia seems destined to tightrope the line between safe and bubble until kingdom come, but I’m not sure that the Mountaineers will ever actually feel the pressure of possibly being excluded. WVU still hasn’t won a game against a team inside the field since Jan. 18—certainly reason to sweat with a 9-12 Quad 1/2 record and every metric but T-Rank breeching 40. But the calling card that has kept the Mountaineers in it all year long still remains: a hearty helping of victory against Quad 1A opposition, their prior total of four now up to five, as Feb. 2’s win in Cincinnati has snuck its way into the NET top 40. Only nine other teams in the nation are able to claim as many, all of which have already been locked. Just polish off the regular season slate (2-0 preferred, but 1-1 acceptable), and West Virginia should be tourney-bound.
Baylor: Just call ’em Molly Hatchet, ’cause Baylor’s flirtin’ with disaster. Here in Bauer’s Bubble Watch, we’ve documented the Bears’ slide from the collective mindset of “OK, they’re not Baylor Baylor, but they’re fine,” to “Uh-oh, Baylor might actually be in trouble,” a consequence of a three-game losing streak entering Saturday’s home matinee against Oklahoma State, where Baylor then proceeded to go down by double digits in the first half to the NET #96 team. This would have been grounds for red alert, had the Bears not surged ahead across the middle 10 minutes to ultimately win by 10. Crisis averted for now, but Baylor is far from out of the woods. They close the regular season at TCU, who is still fighting for a bubble bid themselves, and vs. Houston, who is still looking to lock down a 1 seed and has not lost a road game in more than a calendar year. If Baylor goes 0-2, they’d be 17-14 overall, but just 16-14 against Division I: a violation of the committee’s unofficial need-to-be-three-games-above-.500 clause, thus necessitating a performance of at least 2-1 in the Big 12 tournament. Who woulda thought that a throwaway game against Arlington Baptist just after Christmas could come back to bite them in the butt?
Cincinnati: So Cincinnati couldn’t play giant slayer and knock off Houston in Fertitta. Don’t feel bad! Only Texas Tech has accomplished that feat in the past two years. A 1-1 week remains a productive outcome for the Bearcats nonetheless, especially since they were able to cut the final margin at Houston to single digits. It’s pretty clear that Cincy has been playing solid basketball on a regular basis for the past month now, and as a result, their metrics are starting to look tournament-reasonable. Of course, that 1-10 mark in Quad 1 remains a huge roadblock that can no longer be addressed in the regular season, unless Baylor can do the Bearcats a solid and wiggle its way back up into the NET top 30. All that Cincinnati can do in the interim is win, win, win, and hope that other bubble teams lose. That’s kinda what the bubble life is all about, yeah?
TCU: As was the case last week, TCU remains a borderline bubble case and represents the outer limits of the Bauer’s Bubble Watch scope. Now 2-11 beyond Fort Worth after Tuesday’s squishing in Morgantown, there’s no reason to believe that the Horned Frogs and their 6-13 Quad 1/2 record and metric profile ranging from 55 to 82 would be seriously considered for the field right now. But I’m willing to keep TCU on the page since the path back to feasibility is not unreasonable: Beat a slumping Baylor in Schollmaier on Tuesday, take to the road and snag a Quad 2 win at Colorado to finish the regular season, then win their opening-round game of the Big 12 tournament. That’s actually fairly doable! And that would have the Froggies at 19-14 with nine Q1/2 victories, opposed to their current six. That might just be enough to sneak in… though it is worth noting that both KenPom and T-Rank have TCU as underdogs in these final two. Prove ’em wrong, Frogs!
BIG EAST
Finally, some movement! The Big East was getting rather boring to write about, spitting out the same two-lock, two-safe, one-bubble combo every week. But no more! Both UConn and Creighton can officially pack their bags for the big dance. The Huskies’ volatility has been duly noted throughout the course of this column, ranging anywhere from stunning triumph at Marquette to total head-scratcher at Seton Hall. But a 2-0 week against the league’s filler has produced some much-needed stability, ending an alternating win-loss pattern that’s been in place since the start of February. As such, the hunt for the national three-peat is officially on. The Bluejays’ lock, meanwhile, might be a tad more precarious, given Wednesday’s slightly uneasy win over DePaul and Saturday’s subsequent pantsing at Cintas. But the metrics and quadrants remain solid enough that Creighton can coast to the finish line against a breezy final week.
That leaves just one Big East bubble team left to watch… though Villanova (somewhat annoyingly) persists in the periphery once again. They just won’t die! Like, a résumé average pushing 70 alongside a 6-9 Q1/2 record and three Q3/4 losses is still definitely, definitely out, and a win over Georgetown to end the regular season won’t do much to change that. But… the Wildcats are 3-0 since Feb. 18’s blown opportunity at UConn, and if they take care of the Hoyas and snag a big game or two in the Big East tournament, they might still be able to do this thing without winning the conference tourney outright. Can vintage Nova make an appearance at the most critical time? We’ll find out.
Xavier: Huge, huge, huge win. Saturday’s home victory over Creighton may go down in the books as Quad 2, failing to resolve Xavier’s scant 1-9 record in Quad 1, but a thoroughly dominant 22-point triumph over a team on its way to the tournament is a massive feather in the cap for a Musketeers squad that’s done its part to stay alive against the Big East’s bottom for the past three weeks. As it currently stands, I still think a spot on the inside of the field is just out of range (a team with a résumé average of 50.7 and that aforementioned 1-9 Q1 mark would be a historic choice for an at-large, and not in a good way), but should this upward trajectory continue and take the metrics along for the ride, Xavier can still do enough to make the committee’s choice an easy one. Finish the regular season 2-0, picking up an underrated win at Butler this Wednesday in the process, and it suddenly gets real intriguing.
BIG TEN
Well, well, well. Look who finally decided to show up! There’s a reason that despite an underwhelming 9-8 start to conference play, despite a no-show against Duke at MSG, that the predictive metrics have kept Illinois in good favor all year long. (I’m tellin’ ya, the predictives almost always win in the end!) But seriously—a routine, never-trailed victory over Iowa and a monstrous 62-point second half to win in Ann Arbor by 20 are easily the two most complete back-to-back results that the Fighting Illini have put together in months. There’s never been any doubt about the capabilities of this young but über-talented Illini team; the question has always been about whether or not the pieces can fit together with some air of consistency. If this last week is any indication, then they’ve figured it out at just the right time. Tournament field beware!
Also, not a bubble team yet, but shout out Northwestern! The fact that Chris Collins and company have somehow managed to scrap together a decent season out of numerous gut-wrenching losses and soul-crushing injuries is a triumph of the human spirit that should not go unnoticed. Résumé numbers in the 60s and a 7-13 Quad 1/2 record put the kibosh on a Cats at-large argument for now, but if NU can finish out the regular season with wins over UCLA and Maryland, we’ll be willing to give ’em a second look.
Indiana: He tricked me. Mike Woodson really had me believing for weeks that Indiana was a full-on train wreck, a team destined to eventually nosedive off the bubble, and only allowed to maintain their place because of the lack of quality elsewhere. Instead, the Hoosiers are likely going to the NCAA Tournament if they can finish the regular season 1-1. How did this happen? I joked about it last week, but now I’m thinking about it a bit more seriously. Did the mere act of saying that Woodson would be departing at season’s end really reinvigorate IU Knute Rockne-style? I can’t come up with any other explanation for this team suddenly going from comedy of errors on a weekly basis to rock-solid unit putting together 40 good minutes with regularity. Whatever fuel may be powering this superhero run, they’ll still need it to last another week; at suddenly flaming Oregon and home vs. desperate Ohio State is not an easy end-of-season slate. But the team sheet numbers are in a spot where the Hoosiers can likely survive a split, ending this rollercoaster ride with a March Madness bid after all. What a world we live in.
Ohio State: No team will make for more bubble-rific viewing this week than Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ struggles to keep their overall record above the consideration threshold have already been catalogued, and Wednesday’s win at USC is monumental, if only for keeping OSU alive against that all-too-important stipulation. Conventional wisdom would say that that victory puts the Buckeyes back into the projected field for now, given the state of this semi-solid team sheet, but it’s absolutely imperative that Ohio State finishes the regular season campaign at least 1-1 against the Big Ten’s other two bubblers: vs. Nebraska on Tuesday, at Indiana on Saturday. Even then, a split outing would require at least one more W in the Big Ten tournament. It’s going to come down to the wire either way. Get your popcorn ready, Columbus.
Nebraska: Not like this, Nebraska. Not like this. The Cornhuskers’ mid-winter magic has gone radio silent at the worst possible time, as three straight excruciating losses to Penn State, Michigan, and now Minnesota have sunk Nebraska from highly comfortable bubble team to one riding a unicycle on a tightrope above the Grand Canyon. I want to say that five Quad 1 wins, three of them coming outside of Pinnacle Bank, will be reason enough to hand the Huskers a bid on judgment day, but a 2-2 Quad 3 record and two of three résumé metrics landing north of 50 have me thinking that the inverse is just as likely. Simply put, Nebraska cannot go any worse than 1-1 across the final week, or the early February heroics of Brice Williams and Juwan Gary will have been for naught. If the Huskers can manage that, I’ll like their chances of sneaking in, perhaps in Dayton as one of the final teams in the field—and that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If there was ever a time to finally land that long-coveted first NCAA Tournament win, that scenario might be it.
SEC
The Vanderbilt Commodores, baby! It’s a very rare circumstance for a team to skip over the safe category, advancing directly from bubble to lock, but no team in the country can claim to have had a better week than Vandy. The notion that this was a good albeit slightly shaky team sheet given the lack of quality victories outside of Nashville was quickly rectified to the tune of a behemoth Quad 1A W at Texas A&M on Wednesday, then promptly followed up by a heart-pounding home win over Missouri on Saturday, which featured the second-best buzzer beater hoisted in the state of Tennessee that day. (Sorry, Dores. Vols still got ya beat there.) Though that 328th-ranked non-con and oddly low BPI may create a ceiling for Vanderbilt’s seed, there’s no question as to whether or not we’ll see them in the tournament for the first time since 2017. (Mark Byington brings James Madison to its first dance in ages then promptly does the same thing the very next season for a team playing in the most challenging conference of all time. Dude can coach.)
Georgia: I just got done saying that no team in the country had a better week than Vanderbilt… Georgia may take issue with that notion. It was last Monday that I mused about how listless the Bulldogs had looked for the past month, going 0-9 against at-large-level competition since Jan. 15, and falling outside of the field for two reasons: 1) A lack of any kind of top-level win that could offset a putrid 2-11 Quad 1 record, and 2) Zero road wins against any team better than 110th in NET. Leave it to the nearly left-for-dead Dogs to address both issues in short order. Tuesday’s win over Florida was reinvigorating, and likely fully cathartic for former Florida coach Mike White, as his Bulldogs jumped out to a 26-point edge over the Gators, then didn’t lay down and die when Florida inevitably reclaimed the lead with a little over a minute left, instead punching back with a 10-3 run to close out the massive Quad 1A dub. The good vibes of that win carried over into Saturday, as UGA dominated Texas in Austin, leading by as much as 27 in a résumé-altering road victory. That’s the kind of week that can lift a team like Georgia from firmly on the outside of the field to squarely in it, maybe not even playing in Dayton. Extremely unexpected based on how this team had been playing the month prior, but I am all for it. Well done.
Arkansas: In a Saturday full of surprises, I’m not sure any result has me scratching my head more than Arkansas being utterly manhandled at South Carolina. Per Torvik, Arkansas had been playing as one of the 16 best teams in the country since John Calipari’s big homecoming win in Lexington to kick off February, the Razorbacks either always coming out on top or putting up the dukes in a losing effort. Not so on Saturday; the Gamecocks wiped the floor with Arkansas, holding the Hogs to just three total field goals in the first half and leading by as much as 35 in one of most lopsided contests you’ll see all SEC season. Really awful timing for the Razorbacks to unload a heaping pile of garbage like this, considering most bracketologists had just given them a firm spot in the field off the heels of Wednesday’s season sweep of Texas. Now, right back to the cutline where they’ve resided for nearly a month, the Hogs have a difficult final two games at Vanderbilt and vs. Mississippi State; 1-1 is probably mandatory to keep this 6-12 Quad 1/2 bubble inflated entering the SEC tourney. We don’t want to see yet another Cal team vanish in March, right?
Oklahoma: Yep, we’re still talking about a team that is now 4-12 in conference play as possibly being an eventual at-large selection to the NCAA Tournament field. Welcome to college basketball in 2025! This is the future we created—hope it’s worth it for some extra cash! At least Oklahoma put up a fight in its two losses last week to Kentucky and Ole Miss, something that the Sooners couldn’t say prior in defeats to Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, etc. But we are now looking at a team sheet that is 1-7 in true road contests, 5-10 in the top quadrant, and only hanging in there as a last team in/first team out kind of choice because of that 13-0 non-conference showing. It’s the biggest gap in quality between early season and late season that I’ve ever seen, and it makes for a fascinating moral quandary for the selection committee: Can you really select a team that has been this bad since the start of the new year, even though the November and December results matter just as much as the January and February ones? Can you leave out a team that is 5-0 on neutral courts against the likes of Arizona, Michigan, and Louisville, even though they’ve won just once outside of Norman in league play? The decision will be historic, whichever way it falls.
Texas: I think Rodney Terry’s days at Texas are just about done. The Longhorns’ bubble is now leaking gas at a ferocious pace, as this three-game skid has sunk Texas’ résumé metrics into the 60s—traditionally a no-go as far at-larges go—with zero non-conference results of note nor any road wins better than NET #52 Oklahoma to counter this otherwise bleak reality. In a disappointing season, Saturday’s home defeat to Georgia has to be the single most disappointing result, given that the Horns showed no signs of life in a game that would have gone a long way toward steering the ship back in the right direction, even if it wouldn’t have done much help for the résumé in the long run. Instead, we got the most disastrous result, and we’re facing a world where sensational freshman and possible all-SEC choice Tre Johnson will have never gotten to play in an NCAA Tournament game prior to being an NBA lottery pick. Quite tragic. Wins over both Mississippi State and Oklahoma to end the regular season are now required to stay in consideration.
OTHERS
OK, now Gonzaga can breathe. Seems like last Saturday’s slip-up in Spokane against Saint Mary’s was just a case of the better team winning; that’s also what happened in each of the Bulldogs’ respective 19- and 20-point victories at Santa Clara and San Francisco last week. Those may not pop off the page like a win over SMC would, but both fit firmly in Quad 1 just the same, providing Gonzaga with some much-needed meat to back up those top-12 predictive numbers. An 8-8 Quad 1/2 record with nothing to show for in Quad 1A isn’t going to blow you away, but it’s enough to put the Zags safely in the realm of a 7 or 8 seed, with no possible way of blowing it in the WCC tourney. Make it 26 straight NCAA Tournament appearances for Gonzaga; the question now is whether or not they can make it 10 straight Sweet Sixteens. They’ll be a trendy to pick to do so, I bet you that much.
Elsewhere, we’ve got some painful popping to perform. George Mason is officially toast after getting crushed Saturday at Duquesne, a result that gives the Patriots thrice as many Quad 3/4 losses as Quad 1 wins. We’ll be rooting for ya in the A-10 tournament, guys. And I’m also sticking the fork in San Francisco, who did edge out a thriller at Oregon State on Wednesday to keep their boat afloat, but did not pull off the feat that their tournament hopes truly predicated on: beating Gonzaga on Saturday. A 4-8 Q1/2 record and résumé metric showing in the mid-50s won’t do; only a win over the Zags in next Monday’s WCC semifinals could re-inflate the Dons’ bubble.
And one last order of business: Gotta mention that I’m keeping my eye on Colorado State. I wouldn’t quite call the Rams a bubble team as of today, since a team sheet displaying résumé metrics in the 60s and a single Quad 1 win over NET #72 Nevada would not fly in the selection room. But there also hasn’t been a Mountain West team hotter over the past three weeks than CSU, Saturday’s 93-66 beatdown of Utah State a firm declaration that the Rams aren’t finished yet. It was two weeks ago that I asked Boise State to give me another 2-0 week to get on the page; that they did, and now they’re likely in my at-large field. I give Colorado State the same proposition: stave off San Jose State on Tuesday, and take down the Broncos at ExtraMile on Friday. Do that, and we’ll have a genuine discussion on our hands.
New Mexico: One more win: That’s all I’m asking for, Lobos. Though New Mexico couldn’t quite leave Tuesday’s trip to San Diego State with a lock-clinching road victory, they did avoid abject disaster on Saturday by disposing of NET #316 Air Force at The Pit, something that last year’s Lobos failed to do. As such, UNM is now clear of any totally résumé-crushing losses from here on out, though things could still have potential to get squirrelly if New Mexico were to lose at Nevada, then add a third Quad 3 loss via UNLV to finish the regular season slate. The current profile just isn’t bulletproof enough to completely withstand that kind of blow (33 résumé average, 42.7 predictive average), but you’d have to think that the goodwill that the Lobos have built up to this point in wins over UCLA, VCU, and head-to-head sweep of Utah State would continue to keep them in the committee’s good graces through thick and thin. One little victory is all I’m asking for, then we’ll lock the Lobos for good.
Utah State: Really not fond of you making me look like a fool here, Utah State. I just got done singing the praises of this team last week, remarking on how remarkable it is that the Aggies just keep on winning despite yearly overturn of the highest order. So then they go out and get crushed at Boise State before being wiped off the face of the Earth at Colorado State three days later. (Cool stuff, guys. Appreciate it.) But my sentiment on this program’s pliability still remains, and I still think the Aggies and their 10-6 Quad 1/2 record are in good shape for a bid, though perhaps now at the lowest seed they’ve been projected all of 2025. Anyway, put this setback in the past with a win over Air Force on Saturday, and don’t do anything stupid in the Mountain West tournament, and Utah State will be all good for its third straight NCAA Tournament invite across three different coaches. (Never gonna get over that.)
San Diego State: Let’s go ahead and slide the Aztecs up to safety. I can’t quite say that San Diego State is a total lock yet, but Brian Dutcher and crew should feel comfortable about their bid status in present day. The metrics may not be anything eye-catching (36.7 résumé, 50.3 quality), but an 8-6 showing in Quad 1/2 with four Ws in the topmost quadrant outside of Viejas (most notably Nov. 30’s Vegas victory over Houston) is reason to believe that the Aztecs remain a rock-solid tournament choice. Now they face the same final week as New Mexico—games against UNLV and Nevada—probably needing 2-0 to earn cast-iron approval, though 1-1 may suffice too, pending other bubble results. In either case, San Diego State would at least inch closer to its 12th tournament bid in the past 15 tries, an outstanding feat for a program that never even came close to that kind of sustained success before the Steve Fisher days.
Drake: I’m not going to move Drake above bubble status, but I really do believe that they’re in the clear. After Feb. 16’s growth-stunting home loss to Bradley, the Bulldogs successfully polished off the rest of their slate, as nerve-wracking as it might have been, with overtime escapes to both Northern Iowa and Missouri State sprinkled in there. But Drake is the best 45-minute team in the country, now 5-0 in extra-period contests; they’re also 25-3 overall and a flawless 5-0 in Quad 1/2 games, possessing a hugely important neutral-court win over newly minted locked Vanderbilt. That, in theory, should be enough to keep Drake on the right side of the bubble, regardless of any loss that they could incur during Arch Madness this week. This is not the same case as Indiana State last year, who I thought would be afforded the benefit of the doubt for merely looking good despite a slightly lackluster résumé; Drake actually has the data to back a bid up. They can still remove all hesitation by winning the Valley tourney outright, but I don’t foresee a future where the Bulldogs can do enough harm to kick themselves out of the field now.
VCU: If you want a more apt comparison to 2024 Indiana State, look no further than 2025 VCU. The résumé is a bit underwhelming—44.7 results metric average is so-so, and no wins against the at-large field is an issue. But, damn, this is a good basketball team. You can tell that just by watching the games; the Rams turned last week’s potential traps against Richmond and Davidson into no-sweat contests, rising up to 29th in NET and 26th in T-Rank in the process. That’s right—per inherent quality measures, there are only 25-30 teams in the land better on paper than VCU. Given this year’s less competitive bubble, I don’t think that the Rams will succumb to the same woeful fate as Indiana State should they slip in the A-10 tournament. In fact, if they can close conference play on a 10-game winning streak by finishing off Duquesne and Dayton (who is also not quite completely dead at-large-wise, by the way) this week, I’d afford the same “bubble-but-not-really” sentiment to VCU as I do to Drake. So get to it!
UC San Diego: It’ll be highway robbery if UC San Diego doesn’t win the Big West automatic bid and the committee opts to give a mediocre power conference team an at-large instead. These Tritons deserve to dance! After weeks of treading water since the win in Irvine on Feb. 8, UCSD faced its biggest challenge on Thursday night at a very dangerous CSUN team. The Tritons won, never once trailing in the second half, then got right back to their no-nonsense ways on Saturday, eviscerating Cal State Fullerton to the tune of a 100-55 beatdown. They do not mess around! And with the results metrics finally rising past the 50 threshold into the much more reasonable 40s, I don’t see how a team sheet that is also 14-2 outside of La Jolla and 3-2 across the top two Quads with a Dec. 17 win at Utah State in tow could be excluded, so long as the Tritons don’t pull something disastrous over these final few games. Keep that foot on the gas pedal and don’t even think about letting up!
Boise State: Now we’re talking. A week ago, Boise State’s tournament case had only just begun to look like that of a team inside the at-large field—a little light on the important metrics but possessing victories in all the right areas. Now, throw in a spiffy home win over Utah State and a Fresno State-shaped landmine narrowly avoided, and the argument to include the Broncos has never looked stronger. We’re probably still looking at a Tuesday or Wednesday trip to Dayton at the moment, given the SOR and WAB above 50 and Quad 3 blemishes courtesy of Washington State and Boston College, but I do feel pretty strongly that the Broncos would hear their name called if the bracket were unveiled today. Now let’s make that gut feeling more of a certainty by sidestepping Air Force and Colorado State in the final week of the regular season.
UC Irvine: It’s probably wishful thinking maintaining UC Irvine’s spot on the page while other mid-major bubblers like George Mason and San Francisco have gone by the wayside, but I do genuinely believe that there’s still a case to be made here. In a world where the bubble is as bad as it’s ever been, why not try a team that is 4-2 vs. Quad 1/2 competition, whose three Q3 losses all lean toward the upper end of the quadrant, and has won 15 times outside of their home gym, more than any other team in America? You may have to do some serious head-twisting to see the light at the end of the tunnel here, but I believe that light is still on, dim as it may be. Regardless of your opinion on the Anteaters’ status, the mission remains the same: Win the Big West tournament. Or, if you don’t, lose to UC San Diego in the title match, and hope that that’s enough to make the selection committee give you a second glance. (Probably just want to do the former, though.)