Never underestimate the ability of college basketball to surprise. In just one month of play, we’ve already seen a number of wild results, and that zaniness has shaped the new Bauertology rankings into something somewhat unfamiliar. There are teams in this week’s rankings that I never would have expected to even sniff the Top 25, while an unusual number of name-brand teams (Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Virginia, Michigan State, Louisville) are all on the outside looking in. It only makes sense that the craziest year in modern history would have college hoops results to match.
Let’s see what kind of lunacy we’re dealing with in the Week 6 edition of the Bauertology Top 25.
1. Gonzaga (0)
To the surprise of absolutely no one, Gonzaga stays on top yet again. Just when you think they can’t pull anything more out of their bag of tricks, the Bulldogs do it again, this time dismantling the vaunted Virginia defense with 98 points, thanks in large part to Corey Kispert’s 9-13 shooting from 3-point range. Gonzaga is simply obliterating everybody. The Bulldogs are the most likely team to finish the regular season undefeated, now sitting at a preposterous 44.1% according to KenPom.
2. Baylor (0)
Gonzaga has the best offense of any team, so it only makes sense that No. 2 has arguably the best defense of any team. What Baylor did to Arkansas-Pine Bluff last Monday should be illegal, as the Bears held the Golden Lions to just 42 points. Of course, the offense needs to be mentioned as well, shooting the deep ball at an incredible 47% clip, with Davion Mitchell and LJ Cryer each north of 50%. Simply put, the Bears are incredible on both ends of the court.
3. Kansas (+1)
Baylor may be the best team in the Big 12, but Kansas isn’t far behind. The last four results especially have been nothing but green for the Jayhawks, featuring wins over fellow ranked teams Creighton, Texas Tech and West Virginia, plus a 45-point victory over Omaha. They’re hot at the start of conference play, with standout junior Ochai Agbaji leading the charge (14.8 points per game, 41.7% from 3-point range). Texas is next: a good opportunity to further prove how excellent this team can be.
4. Houston (+1)
If there’s any team not named Gonzaga with a semi-decent chance at finishing the regular season undefeated, it’s Houston. The Cougars passed all their non-conference tests (including a key victory over Texas Tech) and are now 2-0 in conference play following a 26-point blowout of Temple and a hard-fought 63-54 road victory over a good UCF team. Kelvin Sampson has something special brewing in H-Town, and everyone should be taking notice.
5. Villanova (+2)
Villanova hasn’t missed a beat since that overtime loss to Virginia Tech, with an 18-point deficit to Georgetown (eventually overcome) being the only “valley” in the past month of play. They’re now 3-0 in the Big East after an impressive victory over Marquette, which featured an 18-4 Wildcats run at the end of the first half and the start of the second. It’s a tossup as to whether Jeremiah Robinson-Earl or Collin Gillespie is the Wildcats’ most valuable piece, but they’re fortunate to have both.
6. Wisconsin (+2)
Wisconsin takes the crown as the Big Ten’s top team after a 2-0 start to conference play that featured a solid win over Nebraska and an eye-catching 85-76 win at Michigan State on Christmas Day. Notably, the Badgers continue to shoot the lights out from deep, now at 41.8%. The defense did have its worst performance of the season against the Spartans, but the Badgers have shown that they can get the job done on offense when the usually stout D has an off night.
7. Texas (-1)
The Longhorns had last week off, and they’ll get an even longer break since tomorrow’s game against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has been canceled due to COVID issues within the Islanders’ program. Even with no new data to digest, Texas remains one of the most promising teams in Division I, thanks to its mix of veteran leadership, young talent, offensive prowess and defensive mastery. As mentioned before, Saturday’s visit to Lawrence should make for one hell of a game.
8. Tennessee (+5)
The top 10 is just loaded with elite defenses, and Tennessee is no exception. Ranked No. 3 overall by KenPom in that category, the Volunteers have allowed more than 60 points just once through their first six games—those 66 points came via the Saint Joseph’s Hawks in a game that Tennessee won by 36. USC Upstate’s strange 9-18 performance from deep has been the Vols D’s only lapse so far. Elite on both ends of the floor, Tennessee appears to be the SEC’s most viable Final Four candidate.
9. Iowa (-6)
No need to hit the panic button in Iowa City. Yes, blowing a seven-point lead with 43 seconds left to eventually lose in double overtime to Minnesota is a back-breaker and deserves a bit of a drop in the rankings. But Minnesota has been rather impressive as of late, and the Hawkeyes’ only other loss is to No. 1 Gonzaga. Also, Luka Garza is still averaging 28.8 points and 10 rebounds per game to go alongside 52.9% shooting from deep. The Hawkeyes are going to be just fine.
10. Creighton (+1)
This is where it gets tricky. Ranking teams No. 1 through 9 was a breeze. Ranking teams No. 10 through No. 19? Not so much. Ultimately, I decided to put Creighton at the top of this group, as the Bluejays have gone 3-0 since the Marquette loss that kicked them from the top 10, two of those wins being on the road and all three being within the Big East. They’ve got a bit of work to do to get on Villanova’s level as the conference’s premier team, but the potential is clearly present.
11. Texas Tech (+5)
What was that about good defense? Texas Tech may be the cream of the crop in that category, ranked first in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin and fourth in points allowed per game. It kept a typically high-scoring Oklahoma to 67 points on Tuesday (the most allowed by Texas Tech this season, mind you) en route to a hard-fought road victory. Yes, the Red Raiders almost blew it at the end, but the most important thing is that they got a big Quad I win on the résumé early in Big 12 play.
12. Missouri (0)
I think that Tuesday’s extremely close call against Bradley shows that Missouri is not quite on Tennessee’s level in terms of the SEC’s top teams (I guess we’ll find the answer to that when the two meet on Wednesday!), but it’s impossible to ignore wins over ranked Oregon and Illinois teams, and it would be wrong to do so. The Tigers’ early-season résumé is among the best in college basketball, and they deserve a high spot in the rankings for it, even after a so-so performance.
13. Rutgers (-3)
Undefeated no more due to a sudden implosion at Ohio State, the Scarlet Knights still have a lot of promising signs at which to point. Ron Harper Jr. is playing out of his mind, averaging 23.4 points and 7.1 rebounds with 50% 3-point shooting, and the RAC, the site of Rutgers’ next two matches against Purdue and Iowa, remains one of the strongest home-court advantages in Division I, despite the lack of fans. The loss to Ohio State is likely just a minor stumble and not a sign of things to come.
14. West Virginia (-5)
West Virginia played great basketball at Kansas for the first 25 minutes… unfortunately for WVU, college basketball games are 40 minutes long. It seemed like they ran out of gas, no doubt aided by Oscar Tshiebwe’s disappearing act (three points and three turnovers in 18 minutes of play). Tshiebwe hasn’t lived up to expectations, and the Mountaineers have now had two mediocre performances in a row. They need to right the ship before the Big 12 grind is in full swing.
15. Michigan (+5)
Penn State may represent the only “marquee” win on Michigan’s résumé, but the Wolverines, now 7-0, have looked excellent ever since that overtime scare from Oakland. Freshman Hunter Dickinson has been a monster in the paint, posting 20 points against the Nittany Lions and 15 rebounds against Nebraska a few days later. He and teammates Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner make for an absolutely formidable frontcourt that ranks among the Big Ten’s best.
16. Oregon (+1)
No new data for the Ducks after having the week off, but their résumé points are only getting better by the day. Oregon’s lone loss, an eight-point neutral-court defeat to Missouri, isn’t looking so bad with the Tigers suddenly becoming one of the nation’s top teams, while important wins over Seton Hall and San Francisco are growing in strength with the Pirates and Dons also playing at a respectable level. As the Ducks learn this week, sometimes you win by doing nothing.
17. Saint Louis (-3)
With the way Minnesota has been playing lately, an eight-point road loss to the Golden Gophers does only a little bit of damage to the Billikens’ reputation. But a scare from Quad IV UMKC? That’s where the concern is. Saint Louis suddenly doesn’t look like the same unstoppable force that we saw in the team’s first six games. The Billikens should still be the A-10 favorites, especially with Richmond’s bizarre free fall, but maybe the situation isn’t as cut-and-dry as we once thought.
18. Xavier (-3)
The Musketeers may no longer be undefeated, but they have answered the question as to whether they deserve to be listed among college basketball’s best teams, and that answer is a yes. Xavier battled Creighton for a full 40 minutes last Wednesday (in Omaha, no less), leading by as much as 13 points. They didn’t pull out the same buzzer-beater magic that they did against Marquette last Sunday, but the X-Men still look like a serious contender in a crowded Big East.
19. Clemson (0)
Clemson’s defense remains a force to be reckoned with. Morehead State was the Tigers’ only opponent last week, and Brad Brownell’s squad stiffened up again, allowing just 51 points. The Tigers should have scored more than just 66, especially at home against a Quad IV opponent, but the point remains that Clemson, not Virginia, has the premier ACC defense at the moment. We’ll see if it can contain M.J. Walker and Florida State in an excellent tilt on Tuesday.
20. Minnesota (NEW)
All-American contender Marcus Carr, now averaging 24.6 points and 6.2 assists on top of 39.3% shooting from deep, has willed his slept-on Golden Gophers team to an 8-1 start, the latest win being in overtime over Iowa thanks to his and Brandon Johnson’s shooting (combined 14-22 from deep). There are a couple ugly results in there, such as scraping by North Dakota and Loyola Marymount, but this kind of opening for a team picked to finish 11th in conference is nothing short of incredible.
21. Arkansas (0)
It’s easy to point to the Razorbacks’ 8-0 record as a product of a shoddy schedule; Arkansas has not left Fayetteville yet, and North Texas is the only Quad II-and-above team to visit so far. While that argument certainly has validity, the Razorbacks have looked clean just about everywhere in each of their eight tuneup games. I suppose we’ll find out whether or not they’re for real starting this week, as the SEC grind opens with Auburn on Wednesday and Missouri on Saturday.
22. Northwestern (NEW)
Between Minnesota and Northwestern, the Golden Gophers have looked like the better team. But the Wildcats’ feat is arguably more impressive. Even more slept-on than Minnesota (Northwestern was picked dead last in the Big Ten preseason poll), the Wildcats are a one-point loss to Pittsburgh away from a 7-0 start, three of those wins coming against Big Ten contenders: Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State. Needless to say, Miller Kopp, Boo Buie and company are turning heads in Evanston.
23. Florida State (-1)
It seems like Florida State didn’t quite recover all the way from its shocking home loss to UCF, as the Seminoles were given a bit more trouble from Gardner-Webb than they would have liked. Still, they got the win (a 13-point one at that), and the early-season victories over Indiana and Florida are likely to never expire as strong, résumé-boosting victories. Florida State remains a top contender in the ACC. But the road is tough, as both Clemson and Duke lie ahead on this week’s schedule.
24. San Diego State (NEW)
That’s certainly one way to rebound. Whereas Florida State struggled a bit in its recovery game, San Diego State shined. After dropping a 10-point contest at home to BYU, the Aztecs annihilated Saint Mary’s on a neutral floor 74-49, with Nathan Mensah’s 18-point, 13-rebound performance leading the way. San Diego State is still the Mountain West’s best team, and alongside Houston and Gonzaga, an undefeated regular season conference record is not out of the question.
25. Illinois (NEW)
I generally don’t like ranking a team with three losses at this point in the season, but I’m definitely willing to make an exception for Illinois. Those three losses came to Rutgers, Baylor and Missouri (i.e., teams with a combined 18-1 record), and the Fighting Illini have key victories over Duke, Penn State and now Indiana to fall back on. Let’s not forget that they also have Ayo Dosunmu, who would be the best player in the Big Ten (and maybe the nation) if not for a certain 7-foot monster at Iowa.
Falling out: Richmond (18), North Carolina (23), Michigan State (24), Indiana (25)
Next 5: NC State, Colorado, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Louisville
Also considered: Drake, BYU, Winthrop, Western Kentucky, North Carolina, VCU, Michigan State