The new year is here! As promised, Bauertology is going to look radically different from what we’ve seen in past projections. Whereas previous brackets took both results and expectations into effect, all brackets in the new year have removed those expectations, with focus now solely on results. After all, the selection committee doesn’t factor in expectations into their analysis.
With this change, you’ll notice a handful of teams falling or rising by an enormous amount of spots, as well as a couple of changes in the auto-bids. An example would be Southern Utah (7-1) taking the spot of Eastern Washington (2-4). At the end of the day, I think Eastern Washington is the better team and is more likely to win the Big Sky auto-bid, but Southern Utah’s résumé is better-looking at the moment, so the Thunderbirds get the nod instead.
There’s still plenty of time for this bracket to change its shape, and I expect the final one produced will look drastically different from this initial projection (and things will get REALLY interesting when the NCAA releases the first NET rankings, supposedly tomorrow). But for now, enjoy the wacky first Bauertology projection of 2021.
TRUE SEED LIST
1 Seeds
1. Gonzaga (10-0)
2. Baylor (9-0)
3. Villanova (8-1)
4. Texas (8-1)
2 Seeds
5. Iowa (9-2)
6. Kansas (8-2)
7. Wisconsin (9-2)
8. Illinois (8-3)
3 Seeds
9. Tennessee (7-1)
10. Creighton (8-2)
11. Rutgers (7-2)
12. Houston (7-1)
4 Seeds
13. Clemson (8-1)
14. Michigan (8-0)
15. Missouri (7-1)
16. Oregon (8-1)
5 Seeds
17. Ohio State (8-2)
18. Texas Tech (8-3)
19. Virginia Tech (8-1)
20. Saint Louis (7-1)
6 Seeds
21. Florida State (5-2)
22. Florida (5-1)
23. UConn (4-1)
24. Minnesota (9-2)
7 Seeds
25. West Virginia (8-3)
26. Louisville (7-1)
27. Seton Hall (8-4)
28. UCLA (7-2)
8 Seeds
29. Colorado (7-3)
30. Alabama (7-3)
31. Xavier (8-2)
32. Oklahoma (6-2)
9 Seeds
33. BYU (9-2)
34. San Diego State (6-2)
35. Oklahoma State (7-2)
36. Arkansas (9-1)
10 Seeds
37. NC State (6-1)
38. USC (6-2)
39. Northwestern (6-2)
40. LSU (6-2)
11 Seeds
41. Stanford (5-3)
42. Indiana (6-4)
43. Michigan State (7-3)
*44. Syracuse (6-1)
*45. SMU (6-0)
12 Seeds
*46. Virginia (5-2)
*47. Boise State (8-1)
48. Loyola Chicago (7-2)
49. Western Kentucky (8-3)
50. Toledo (8-3)
13 Seeds
51. Winthrop (7-0)
52. Furman (8-3)
53. Belmont (10-1)
54. Georgia State (7-2)
14 Seeds
55. Liberty (9-4)
56. Wright State (7-2)
57. Abilene Christian (9-2)
58. Grand Canyon (4-3)
15 Seeds
59. South Dakota State (5-3)
60. UC Riverside (3-1)
61. UMBC (7-2)
62. Bryant (7-2)
16 Seeds
63. Southern Utah (7-1)
64. Hofstra (5-3)
*65. Colgate (1-0)
*66. Monmouth (3-2)
*67. Norfolk State (4-3)
*68. Texas Southern (2-5)
BRACKET
Region 1
1 Gonzaga vs. 16 Colgate / Monmouth
8 Alabama vs. 9 Oklahoma State
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Toledo
4 Oregon vs. 13 Winthrop
6 Minnesota vs. 11 Syracuse / SMU
3 Tennessee vs. 14 Grand Canyon
7 West Virginia vs. 10 LSU
2 Illinois vs. 15 UC Riverside
Region 4
1 Texas vs. 16 Norfolk State / Texas Southern
8 Colorado vs. 9 San Diego State
5 Ohio State vs. 12 Loyola Chicago
4 Clemson vs. 13 Georgia State
6 UConn vs. 11 Indiana
3 Houston vs. 14 Liberty
7 Louisville vs. 10 USC
2 Iowa vs. 15 Bryant
Region 2
1 Baylor vs. 16 Southern Utah
8 Xavier vs. 9 BYU
5 Virginia Tech vs. 12 Western Kentucky
4 Missouri vs. 13 Furman
6 Florida vs. 11 Michigan State
3 Creighton vs. 14 Abilene Christian
7 UCLA vs. 10 NC State
2 Wisconsin vs. 15 South Dakota State
Region 3
1 Villanova vs. 16 Hofstra
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Arkansas
5 Saint Louis vs. 12 Virginia / Boise State
4 Michigan vs. 13 Belmont
6 Florida State vs. 11 Stanford
3 Rutgers vs. 14 Wright State
7 Seton Hall vs. 10 Northwestern
2 Kansas vs. 15 UMBC
THE BUBBLE
Last Four Byes
1. LSU (6-2)
2. Stanford (5-3)
3. Indiana (6-4)
4. Michigan State (7-3)
Last Four In
1. Syracuse (6-1)
2. SMU (6-0)
3. Virginia (5-2)
4. Boise State (8-1)
First Four Out
1. VCU (8-2)
2. North Carolina (6-4)
3. Providence (7-4)
4. TCU (9-2)
Next Four Out
1. Purdue (7-5)
2. Maryland (6-4)
3. Duke (3-2)
4. Richmond (7-3)
Also Considered
Colorado State (6-1)
Drake (11-0)
Marquette (6-5)
Ole Miss (5-3)
Saint Mary’s (9-2)
St. Bonaventure (3-1)
Tulsa (6-3)
Wichita State (6-2)
BIDS BY CONFERENCE
Big Ten: 10
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 5
American: 2
Mountain West: 2
WCC: 2