College basketball is back.
Did you miss it? I know I did. The offseason always feels like it takes too long—seven months of sitting and waiting until I can relish once again in the wild finishes, unpredictable upsets, and all-around madness that makes college hoops so special. Those things, and the unrivaled thrill that courses through my veins watching it all unfold that comes with, are finally here again. And I couldn’t be happier.
I’ll admit, I haven’t kept as good of tabs on the offseason as I usually do, mostly because life has been busy—graduation, new job, new location, all that fun stuff. And while that is of course my main priority (it’s what pays the bills), in the end, there will always be time for college basketball, and what’s a better place to dive in than with a top 25 rankings just ahead of the new season?
I’ve done some research on which teams are the experts’ favorites, which players to watch for, and all that jazz, so I feel prepared to share my outlook on the top 25 best college basketball teams heading into 2021-22.
Of course, it’s important to remember my preseason rankings, and all of them really, are almost entirely based on what “feels right”; i.e. we don’t have any results yet on which to base a list like this. So if you feel slighted that your team didn’t make the cut, don’t sweat it. There’s literally an entire season of basketball to be played, so things WILL change—that is guaranteed—and this list will probably look downright silly in four months time.
Without further ado, let’s get into it—the official Bauertology preseason top 25.
It’s good to be back.
1. GONZAGA
The only choice among experts that appears to be unanimous is that Gonzaga belongs at the top. The Bulldogs came up just short of the ultimate prize in 2021, and despite losing the majority of their starting minutes in Joel Ayayi, Corey Kispert and Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga seems prepared to run it all the way back. Opposing centers are going to have a near impossible time stopping the dynamic duo of 6-foot-10-inch junior Drew Timme and 7-foot freshman Chet Holmgren, both of which will almost certainly be in the All-American conversation by season’s end. Other returners like Andrew Nembhard and Anton Watson should take the next step, and keep an eye on Iowa State transfer Rasir Bolton, one of the better “under-the-radar” transfers, who I’ve personally seen blossom since his freshman year at Penn State. The season is long, but all signs point to another fantastic year in Spokane.
2. KANSAS
No. 1 was easy; now the discussion begins. There’s a number of teams I’m tempted to slot at No. 2, but I’m most convinced by the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas was a bit up-and-down last year, unusually so for a team that almost always gets the job done. But another year on the hardwood together should do just fine for guards Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun, not to mention daunting big man David McCormack. But perhaps the biggest addition for Kansas, and maybe any team in all of college basketball, is Arizona State transfer Remy Martin, an absolute stud of a shooter and facilitator who should have an impact immediately. Not as much of a splash but also worth watching is Drake star Joseph Yesufu, who may not start immediately due to Kansas’ depth but should be a key bench contributor nonetheless. If Bill Self gets all his ducks in a row, less like last year’s inconsistent squad and more like 2019-20’s dominators, the Jayhawks will be sitting pretty near the top of the rankings all season.
3. MICHIGAN
It’s safe to say that Juwan Howard has Michigan trending in the right direction. Often the “always a bridesmaid, never the bride” Big Ten team in favor of a Michigan State or an Ohio State or someone else, Michigan seems primed to become the Big Ten’s premier basketball program under Howard’s leadership—no small feat for someone in his first ever head coaching gig. The primary concern with the Wolverines is their losses in the ball movement department (Mike Smith, Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner), but this team has the perfect mix of senior leadership (Eli Brooks, Brandon Johns Jr.) and exciting young talent (Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabaté) to compete at the highest level. Oh, and of course there’s that Hunter Dickinson guy who will completely dominate every opposing Big Ten forward not named Kofi Cockburn. Seems like a pretty good team to me.
4. ILLINOIS
I’m a little surprised that many experts and poll rankers have turned tail on the Fighting Illini after last year’s spectacular season. The exit of All-American Ayo Dosunmu is obviously reason to be concerned, but I’m not ready to turn my back on any team that has a big man as dominant as Kofi Cockburn, a facilitator as crafty as Andre Curbelo, and a veteran as grizzled as Trent Frazier (now in his 26th year at Illinois, I would guess). And there’s Da’Monte Williams too, who should primed for a massive leap in production. Even if the rest of the roster leaves a little to be desired, the names at the top of the depth chart are so smart and so talented that I can’t help but think Illinois is in for another excellent year, even without Ayo.
5. UCLA
The Bruins can thank their magical March Madness run last season for this ranking. Without it, the world would not have been properly introduced to Johnny Juzang, a bona fide star, who, assuming that six-game audition last spring wasn’t a fluke, should jump to the near-top of the list of Naismith Award contenders immediately. His return is massive; the return of nearly every other major contributor (Jaime Jaquez, Tyger Campbell, Jules Bernard, Cody Riley) is arguably even bigger. They also landed a five-star recruit in Peyton Watson and snagged Myles Johnson from Rutgers to give Riley some help under the rim. This team is stacked top to bottom and has tournament experience to boot. If things go as well as they did in March 2021, the Bruins are in for a killer season.
6. PURDUE
So, yeah, the Big Ten is pretty good—three teams in my top six. Consistency is key in a wild, wild sport like college basketball, so the fact that Purdue is returning all eight of its leading scorers from 2020-21 is no small deal. Trevion Williams was just shy of averaging a double-double last season and very may well do it this season, while Jaden Ivey provides another consistent scoring presence and Sasha Stefanovic continues to be the sharpshooter from distance. That kind of experience and depth paired with the genius of Matt Painter, still one of the best coaches in college basketball, means last year’s disappointing early tournament exit should become a distant memory.
7. TEXAS
We got excited about Texas last year and we saw what happened… but there’s too much to like here not to jump on the Longhorns bandwagon again. And to be fair, a first-round tournament exit was the only thing that turned Texas’ 19-8 season and top three seed into a “disappointment.” Like Michigan, the concern is who’s missing—Kai Jones, Jericho Sims, Greg Brown and Matt Coleman are all gone—but who they’ve brought in makes those losses look less impactful. Snagging Chris Beard from Texas Tech is about as big as an improvement Texas could have possibly made at head coach, and the additions of Pac-12 first teamer Timmy Allen, UMass post staple Tre Mitchell and Big Ten scoring monster Marcus Carr are equally massive. Round out that starting lineup with returners Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey, and it’s hard not to love the Longhorns. Horns up?
8. VILLANOVA
Who needs transfer talent or star freshmen when you have essentially the same roster as last year and one of the most tournament-tested coaches in the nation? It’s for these reasons that Villanova’s situation is almost identical to Purdue, except that the Wildcats did lose one of their top players in Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, hence why I have the Boilermakers a couple slots higher. While his absence will likely mean less post play for Nova, the Cats still have oodles of shooting and assisting talent, especially in preseason All-American Collin Gillespie. He, Jermaine Samuels, Justin Moore and the rest of a fairly deep crew should have the Wildcats back atop their perch on the Big East standings once again.
9. BAYLOR
It feels a bit strange to start out the defending nationals champions all the way down at No. 9. But it ultimately makes sense; Baylor’s top three contributors—Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague—are all NBA-bound. But that’s not to say the Bears are barren; Adam Flagler is prepared to take over Butler’s role as the lead guard, Matthew Mayer, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and five-star freshman Kendall Brown provide Waco with plenty of height, and former Georgetown and Arizona State star James Akinjo gives the Bears a guy who can find the inside pass or hit one from deep. There’s a lot of working parts that need to re-jell with 2020-21’s leaders departed, but that shouldn’t be a big ask for a coach of Scott Drew’s caliber.
10. MEMPHIS
Houston has competition in the AAC. On paper, Memphis has all the capability in the world of catching and even overtaking the Cougars for the conference’s top spot. Landers Nolley is an established star. DeAndre Williams is a triple threat with his height, shooting ability, and assisting capability. Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates should be as exciting as any freshman duo in the nation. The main concern is the coach; Penny Hardaway is now 0-for-2 on reaching the NCAA Tournament (0-for-3 if you count 2020’s cancelled tournament, which Memphis would have narrowly missed), despite high expectations for Memphis each time. Is this is the year that Penny breaks through? Those expectations are back again, and it’s hard not to get excited looking at this roster. That question of whether or not they can get over the hump makes the Tigers one of the most intriguing teams to watch this season.
11. OHIO STATE
Ohio State immediately enters the top of the Big Ten conversation with the return of E.J. Liddell, for whom you could make a convincing best-player-in-the-conference argument. He’s also got Justice Sueing and Kyle Young to help him put the ball in the basket—he’ll need that help with Duane Washington departed—and Chris Holtmann successfully addressed the loss of facilitator CJ Walker with Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler, who will also add an extra element in the defensive game. (And yes, it’ll hurt my Nittany Lion heart to see Wheeler in scarlet and gray.) Just avoid that Max Abmas guy and the Buckeyes will be all good.
12. HOUSTON
It’s interesting that the Cougars are as experienced as they are considering three of their leaders from 2020-21—Quentin Grimes, DeJon Jarreau and Justin Gorham—are all out of H-town. But Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark can just pick up where they left off last season, while Fabian White should do well with more minutes, and Reggie Chaney can up his scoring game too with more playing time. Kyler Edwards is an underrated pickup as well; the Texas Tech transfer should be a frequent choice when the Cougars need 3-pointers. Memphis presents a mighty challenge for now, but Houston remains a top AAC team until proven otherwise.
13. DUKE
It feels very weird to be wary about Duke. I mean, these are the Duke Blue Devils we’re talking about—the perennial powerhouse that everyone loves to hate, that always makes March exciting. Well, that wasn’t the case last year when everything fell apart in Greensboro for a team lacking consistency and chemistry. But Coach K’s missteps are few and far between, and snatching five-star freshman Paolo Banchero was anything but a misstep. He’ll more than fill a great hole made by Matthew Hurt’s departure, while Jeremy Roach, Mark Williams and Wendell Moore, three of the better players from Duke’s disaster year, should succeed with another year’s company. I hate to say it, but Duke shouldn’t be down for very long.
14. ALABAMA
Give Nate Oats all the credit in the world. He has quickly turned Alabama from a solid DI program that occasionally makes an appearance in March Madness into a team that could be here to stay near the top for a while. The SEC is deep—we’ll see a couple more names before this countdown is through—but the defending champs stick at the top of the pack for today, thanks in no small part to the dynamic duo of Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackleford, who should maintain the Crimson Tide’s high-flying, quick-tempo offense, even with Herbert Jones and John Petty departed. The addition of a consensus five-star prospect in JD Davison (gee, that’s a lot of J’s!) is just the icing on the cake.
15. TENNESSEE
Alabama earns the SEC’s top spot in the preseason, but the Volunteers aren’t far behind. Whereas the Crimson Tide are all about quick offense, the Vols thrive on slow defense, and even without blocking extraordinaire Yves Pons on the hardwood, Tennessee should be just fine doing what they do best. Offense is always a question, but it helps that Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer, the Vols’ leading scorers and SEC All-Freshman selections last season, have returned, alongside leading rebounder Josiah-Jordan James and paint presence John Fulkerson. Pons is really the only major loss. Hope you’re ready for some more stifling defense snagging a high spot in the SEC standings.
16. FLORIDA STATE
The metrics aren’t loving Florida State as much as they usually do. But those metrics don’t account for one key factor: never doubt Leonard Hamilton. His Seminoles have finished in the top five in the ACC four of the past five seasons, and I expect this year to be no different—even without one-and-done Scottie Barnes and longtime contributors M.J. Walker and RaiQuan Gray. Anthony Polite can make a bucket from just about anywhere, transfer Caleb Mills brings years of experience from Houston, and JUCO transfer Naheem McLeod is 7 feet 3 inches of rim protection. Five-star freshman Matthew Cleveland and big number two Malik Osborne round out a Seminoles squad more than capable of competing at a high level in the ACC once again.
17. KENTUCKY
Kentucky is changing the formula. Calipari’s Wildcats have long thrived with one-and-dones at the helm, but that bit strategy finally bit them in 2020-21 when the experience and chemistry were at an all-time low. So why not completely trade in all your youth for maturity? That’s what the Wildcats did—senior Davion Mintz and junior Keion Brooks are Kentucky returners, while Kellan Grady (Davidson), Oscar Tshiebwe (West Virginia) and CJ Fredrick (Iowa) bring their respective expertises from elsewhere. On paper, the Wildcats are well-rounded and battle-tested, hence why critics are quick to jump on the bandwagon after last season’s catastrophe. But I remain slightly on edge with last year’s bitter taste still fresh in my mouth and the fact that this new group hasn’t had too much time to jell yet. Give it time, and we’ll find out whether or not these new-look Wildcats are for real.
18. ARKANSAS
Hey, another SEC team! The Big Ten may be the best conference in college basketball but the SEC may have the most exciting race for the top; four teams in this poll between spots No. 14 and 18. The Hogs are certainly going to miss Moses Moody and Justin Smith, the former of which was an All-SEC selection as a freshman, but Eric Musselman has the pieces to keep the Razorbacks afloat in a competitive conference. 2021 Sixth Man of the Year JD Notae will undertake a larger role, while a pair of ACC transfers—Pitt everyman Au’Diese Toney and Miami weapon Chris Lykes—will make sure the offense is even more potent than last year.
19. UCONN
Villanova may own the throne in the Big East, but it shouldn’t be long until the UConn Huskies are making a push for it. No, the Huskies won’t have a transformative star like last year in James Bouknight. What they will have is a more complete roster. Often times, it felt like the Bouknight show in Storrs, and when he had an off night, the Huskies suffered. Instead, experience will lead the day in 2021-22. R.J. Cole, Tyrese Martin, Isaiah Whaley and Tyler Polley are all seniors with scoring prowess, and a healthy Akok Akok should contribute at a high level as well. Less reliance on a one-man effort and more faith in the team as a whole should spell good things for the boys from Connecticut.
20. OREGON
Many projections are high on the Ducks, but I’m a little more cautious. I think that’s an OK opinion to have; Oregon lost its top three leading scorers, two of which (Eugene Omoruyi and Chris Duarte) were among the top in the Pac-12 at 17.1 points per game each, and the other (LJ Figueroa) was more than capable of grabbing a rebound (led the Ducks with 6.1 per game). That said, I do believe Will Richardson will quickly form into an All-Pac-12 selection as a true do-it-all player, while Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier provides a much-needed punch to the forward position with Omoruyi out. And at the end of the day, I’m not one to doubt Dana Altman, a man who regularly “aligns Rubik’s Cubes.” (Thank you, Jon Rothstein.)
21. MARYLAND
Maryland is a bag of fun—though I don’t think Terrapins fans will agree. There’s a tendency to believe the Terps have underperformed under Mark Turgeon, and while there is some truth to that, they’ve also been a consistent top 25 program over the past half decade. This year’s no different. Even though Darryl Morsell and Aaron Wiggins are substantial losses, the Terrapins still have plenty of returning firepower in the likes of Eric Ayala, Donta Scott and Hakim Hart, and the addition of Rhode Island floor general Fatts Russell is a major plus. It might be difficult for the Terps to wiggle in between the upper echelon of the Big Ten where Michigan, Illinois, Purdue and Ohio State reside, but another quality season should be in their future.
22. NORTH CAROLINA
The 2020-21 season was a strange one for the blue bloods. Even though UNC made the tournament, the Tar Heels did not play up to their usual standards… at least they were far better than the 2019-20 squad. Their growth should continue in 2021, even without Roy Williams at the helm. With improvement to his shooting game, Caleb Love should become one of the better all-around players in the ACC, while Armando Bacot and Marquette pickup Dawson Garcia present a challenge for any opposing player trying to work it in the paint. Like Love, Leaky Black can become a true threat with a better touch, and names like Brady Manek, RJ Davis and Kerwin Walton show that this roster runs pretty deep. Perhaps we shouldn’t expect the dominant Tar Heels of old to suddenly return to Chapel Hill, especially in Hubert Davis’ first year as head coach, but a top 25 finish feels reasonable.
23. USC
From one Mobley to another—Evan may have ran the show in So Cal last year, but it’s brother Isaiah’s turn to take the wheel. And there’s no reason to believe he can’t be great; Mobley sunk 44% of his 3-pointers last year while snagging 7.3 boards a game. And he won’t be alone; Isaiah White and Ethan Anderson return, primed to make more of an impact on the scoreboard, while Drew Peterson provides another option for the Trojans to record a pass, rebound or bucket should Mobley be covered. With three teams in my top 25 and another (Arizona) just outside, the Pac-12 is shaping up to be stronger than usual—fitting after last year’s stellar performance in March Madness.
24. ST. BONAVENTURE
It’s lonely at the top. The Bonnies are runaway favorites in the Atlantic 10, and for good reason. Mark Schmidt is and has been the best coach in the conference for some time, and the quintet of double-digit scorers that sent St. Bonaventure to the NCAAs last year (Kyle Lofton, Osun Osunniyi, Jalen Adaway, Jaren Holmes and Dominick Welch) has been retained in its entirety. All five are seniors, so this would be the year to make a 2019-20-Dayton-like impact if they can. The main concern is the Bonnies’ depth, as the well is fairly dry after the starting five (Pitt transfer Abdoul Karim Coulibaly is probably the pick for sixth man). But Schmidt’s leadership and the team’s uncanny ability to play both ends of the floor at their own slow tempo should spell a great season for the team that people can’t decide if they are or aren’t in Olean, New York. (I have no opinion on this matter.)
25. AUBURN
One more SEC team to take us home! The 2020-21 campaign was a forgettable one for Bruce Pearl and company, postseason ban and all, and it’s a shame that NCAA dumbness kept us from enjoying Sharife Cooper for an entire season. But with Cooper gone and a disappointing 2020-21 in the past, the Tigers are eager to dive into the new year with a number of playmakers: a pair of exciting transfers in big man Walker Kessler (UNC) and point guard K.D. Johnson (Georgia), a top-tier recruit and immediate impact player in Jabari Smith, a leader in Jaylin Williams who already took a big leap in year two, and, once healthy, an all-around talent in Allen Flanigan who should lead the charge. This team should get back to the promised land and should vie with the aforementioned quartet of Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas for SEC supremacy.
NEXT FIVE: Michigan State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Virginia, Xavier