Are you ready for some strange rankings?
My early-season rankings are a bit bizarre—they always have been and always will be. That’s because I completely throw my preseason rankings and expectations out the window and focus purely on what we’ve seen on the court so far. After all, that’s how we’re going to be ranking teams three months down the road. So why not start out that way?
I find that this method is a great way to combat poll inertia, the tendency for undeserving teams to remain ranked highly for weeks despite not performing well on the court because of preconceived expectations.
For example, I am a firm Leonard Hamilton believer, and I truly believe by season’s end that his Seminoles will rank among the top teams in basketball—see my preseason rankings for proof. But have they played like a top-25 team through one week? No way; they got totally wiped by Florida in the second half of that game, trailing by as much as 19 late (growing pains and all that). And while I think Florida State will turn it around, their on-court performance through one week does not merit a top-25 ranking.
Does that line of logic make sense?
Well, like it or not, that’s what I’m rolling with. So let’s get to some strange top 25 rankings.
1. GONZAGA (–)
So it looks like Gonzaga is as good as advertised. Texas, one of the top-scoring and most experienced teams in the nation, now featuring one of the best coaches in the nation, trailed the Bulldogs by double digits for about 70% of their matchup on Saturday night. Drew Timme is picking up where right he left (37 points, 7 rebounds vs. Texas), and the supporting cast (Rasir Bolton, Andrew Nembhard, etc.) is filling out nicely. Just wait until the Zags get Chet Holmgren going.
2. KANSAS (–)
Kansas fans can take great comfort knowing they have a scoring machine on their team in Ochai Agbaji—54 points in two games. The ball needs to be in his hands often, and the Jayhawks have done just that, rolling behind their star guard to a 2-0 start that features a great early-season win over Michigan State. The only thing to criticize might be letting Tarleton State hang around just a little too long, but that game really wasn’t much in doubt a few minutes into the second half.
3. UCLA (+2)
How do you bring the doubters onto your side one week into the season? A comeback win over longtime CBB powerhouse Villanova, that’s how! Through two games, Johnny Juzang and company have proved that last March’s Cinderella run was no fluke. And the Bruins can only get better; that win over the Wildcats came with Juzang shooting 1-8 from 3-point range, while Peyton Watson played only six minutes and Myles Johnson found the bucket just once. It’s scary to think what this team might be capable of when firing on all cylinders.
4. MICHIGAN (-1)
Michigan’s drop here is due only to UCLA’s win over Villanova; the Wolverines have looked downright dominant against inferior opponents through two games. Leading Buffalo by as much as 21 before they took their foot off the gas a little too much (led by five with six minutes left but still won by 12), Michigan made no such misstep against Prairie View A&M, winning by 28. Hunter Dickinson remains a certified monster, and youngster Caleb Houstan has already shown flashes of brilliance. Let’s see how they handle a more put-together opponent in Seton Hall.
5. ILLINOIS (-1)
I should just copy-paste the Michigan blurb for Illinois, because the Fighting Illini did basically the exact same thing: whooped the snot out of two vastly inferior opponents. Unlike Michigan, they did it without their dominant big man—Kofi Cockburn remains suspended for one more game—relying on role players like Jacob Grandison and Coleman Hawkins for points. They’ll be Cockburn-less once more against Marquette on Monday, which would usually present a challenge, but the Golden Eagles seem destined for a down year, so the Illini shouldn’t have much reason to worry.
6. PURDUE (–)
Purdue completes the trifecta of Big Ten teams at the top that went 2-0 in week one against cupcakes. This offense looks downright potent, topping 90 points and shooting above 50% from the field in each outing. And the best part is that when one piece has a down night, another piece is ready to be the star of the day (look at Jaden Ivey’s and Sasha Stefanovic’s stat lines from the Bellarmine and Indiana State games to see what I mean). Prepare yourself for a fun one on Saturday against North Carolina.
7. MEMPHIS (+3)
It’s hard not to get your hopes up if you’re a Tigers fan. Yes, they’ve only played low majors through the first two games, but, boy, if they didn’t absolutely dismantle the opposition each time. The Tigers have shot at an elite 55% clip whilst playing suffocating defense on the other end, forcing 26 turnovers alone against NC Central. And, hey, that Emoni Bates guy looks pretty darn good—outings of 15 and 17 points already in his first two collegiate games.
8. BAYLOR (+1)
It took Baylor a little longer than expected to wake up against lowly Incarnate Word, but once the 10-minute mark came, the Bears got rolling and never looked back. The defending champions won the turnover and rebound battle handily (something they’ll likely do all year) with the only weak spot being a 32% shooting performance from deep. Once the Bears can establish that perimeter threat, their game should be sharp in all assets.
9. VILLANOVA (-1)
It’s not too often that I’m forgiving of losses, especially in the early season. After all, I’m the guy who shouts “results matter” from the mountaintop all the time. But you have to go behind the W and L column for Villanova through the first week. The Wildcats were outstanding in their first game against Mount St. Mary’s, then played a near-complete game nearly 3,000 miles from home against the mighty Bruins, only slipping up late. I can’t punish Nova too much for playing a great game against a great team and falling just short, especially considering how good they’ve looked without 2020-21 leader Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.
10. ALABAMA (+4)
Don’t let a minor scare from South Dakota State fool you—Alabama has played excellent basketball through the first week. The Crimson Tide offense remains as formidable as ever, dropping 93 and 104 in back-to-back games, with Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackleford taking the reins as expected. And that blip against the Jackrabbits? Not as bad as you might think. The Crimson Tide ended up winning that game by 16, and South Dakota State remains one of the better mid-majors out there anyway—a likely bet to tear through Summit League play like always.
11. UCONN (+8)
Now it’s time to get funky. The teams at the top of these rankings were all teams we expected to be great, and they have been through the first week of the season. Now we really start to dive into the part where expectations and what we’ve seen on the court diverge. UConn is a beneficiary of this; the Huskies won their first two games by 86 combined points while the surrounding teams in the preseason rankings showed one or more reasons for concern. So are the Huskies really the 11th best team in the country? Tough to say, but they’ve played like it through seven days.
12. OREGON (+8)
…And Oregon is another beneficiary of early-season volatility. Like UConn, the Ducks didn’t exactly have the toughest opponents, but they handled them with ease as you would expect a conference powerhouse to do (and a 23-point win over SMU is a 23-point win over a high mid-major, no matter how you slice it). My preseason prediction that Will Richardson would vie for Pac-12 Player of the Year looks to be in great shape; the senior went for 20 and 18 in his first two outings of the season.
13. DUKE (–)
Good ol’ Duke presents a classic conundrum—a team with high preseason expectations meets said expectations with a convincing win over a great opponent in game one, then does something later on that makes you question whether or not they’re for real. An eight-point win on opening night over Kentucky checks box one, and a truly puzzling performance against KenPom No. 127 Campbell checks box two. That said, the Blue Devils did seem to sort everything out against the Fighting Camels before any real damage was done, and freshman Paolo Banchero has been simply elite under the rim. We’ll give Duke the benefit of the doubt… for now.
14. TEXAS (-7)
I mean, what did we expect? Gonzaga is an absolute buzzsaw for any opponent, even Texas, the most battle-tested team in the nation. The Longhorns did disappoint, but not exceedingly so, with their failure to contain Timme really being the only major blemish. And it’s not like containing Timme is an easy task. Chris Beard’s squad also has a massive dub over Houston Baptist to point to, and I give loads of respect to Beard for scheduling a challenging opponent on the road so early in the season… (ahem, certain blue ACC team.) Texas should be just fine.
15. TENNESSEE (–)
Through two games, Tennessee has played exactly three halves of phenomenal basketball. The first of the four is the reason Tennessee doesn’t move up despite starting 2-0. Alabama being pushed to the limit for one half by South Dakota State isn’t that bad, and honestly, neither is Kansas and Tarleton State (KenPom No. 218), which wasn’t really all that close. But Tennessee struggling to create separation for 16 minutes against UT Martin, one of the 10 or 15 worst teams in the entirety of Division I? Yeah, that’s a little more concerning. Thankfully it looks like Rick Barnes slapped some sense into the Vols, as they’ve been lightning since. Hopefully that performance will be a distant memory just a few weeks down the road.
16. FLORIDA (NEW)
Now that’s how you make an early season impression! Florida, which, I’ll be totally honest, wasn’t really much on my radar to begin the season, has looked like a top-25 team through one week. A convincing opening-day win over Elon, only slightly sullied by letting their foot of the gas in the final five minutes, was followed up by a killer performance against in-state rival Florida State, thanks to an incredible push in the final quarter of the contest and Colin Castleton damn near having the game of his life. All of a sudden, the SEC has another challenger for the crown.
17. SETON HALL (NEW)
Like Florida, Seton Hall might be another team I wasn’t giving enough credit. The Pirates started their season with two practically flawless performances, with the latter against likely Ivy League favorite Yale coming off as especially impressive. The load has mostly been on super senior Myles Cale to carry the Pirates in the post-Myles Powell/Sandro Mamukelashvili world, but it certainly helps when guys like Bryce Aiken are contributing at a high level too. Now we’ll really find out if the Pirates are for real—a trip to Ann Arbor on Tuesday looms.
18. HOUSTON (-6)
So Houston’s an interesting case. If the Cougars hadn’t played a second game before this ranking was released, they wouldn’t even sniff the top 25. Nothing screams “top 25 team” about trailing Hofstra by 13 late before squeaking past the Pride in overtime. Thankfully for Kelvin Sampson’s crew, they did play a second game over the course of the week, and in that game, they absolutely ethered crosstown rival Rice 79-46, leading by 30+ points for the vast majority of the second half. Let’s see more of those Cougars, then I’ll feel more comfortable about having them in the top 25.
19. USC (+4)
OK, so Temple is obviously no Gonzaga. But I still have high respect for the Trojans traveling all the way across the continental United States, playing a solid opponent, and returning home with the victory (even if that victory looked like it was going to slip away late in the contest). Of course Isaiah Mobley has been great (sans turnovers), but it’s Chevez Goodwin who has been the pleasant surprise and USC’s best player through two games. We’ll see if he can continue his hot streak with another road game, this time at Florida Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
20. ARIZONA (NEW)
Arizona was one of many teams I was tempted to slot into my original top 25, but my hesitation for the Wildcats’ having a new coach and coming off a season with a postseason ban prevailed. But, dang, if they haven’t impressed me so far. Even with James Akinjo departed, Arizona has been rolling on both ends, notching wins of 29 and 54(!) points. You can thank a full team effort—key contributions from Koloko, Terry, Ballo, Tubelis, and everyone in between—for the Cats’ hot start.
21. KENTUCKY (-4)
A loss is a loss, meaning the Wildcats drop a few spots from the initial rankings, but they haven’t looked too shabby. John Calipari’s new-look squad played a hard-fought game against star-studded Duke with only a couple momentum shifts in the Blue Devils’ favor being the deciding factor. And then they got right back to work by grinding Robert Morris into a fine powder (maybe Cal is still upset about 2013?) It looks like the glue is starting to dry between all the new pieces, meaning Kentucky should be heading upward again if common sense prevails.
22. TEXAS TECH (NEW)
It took a little bit of time for Texas Tech to get rolling in each of their opening-week games against North Florida and Grambling State (not exactly a great sign), but once they did, it was smooth sailing. The Red Raiders obviously have a lot more growing to do with a new head coach before they can head into conference play feeling confident, but some more convincing performances in the upcoming tune-up games (Prairie View A&M, Incarnate Word, etc.) can go a long way for instilling confidence in a new-look Lubbock squad.
23. FURMAN (NEW)
Ah, why the hell not? When else am I going to get to rank a SoCon team? The analytics don’t think Furman is a top-25 team (ask me in a month and I’ll probably be inclined to agree), but they’ve played like it so far. Blowing out Division II school North Greenville was expected; going to Louisville and handing the Cardinals their first ever November loss in the Yum! Center was not. And Louisville has postseason aspirations this year, so it’s not like it’s a small deal. If anything, that game taught the whole watching world who Mike Bothwell is and what the SoCon is going to have to deal with come January.
24. VIRGINIA TECH (NEW)
Each week, I only showcase my top 25 and list the first five out, so Virginia Tech didn’t appear on the page a week ago. But it’s worth noting I had them in my mind at No. 31. Now they leap into the top 25 with dominos falling into place, one of those dominos being back-to-back victories of 35 and 20 points to start the year. Of course, one of those victories came over Navy, which a certain rival from Charlottesville failed to do… feel free to hold on to that one all year, Hokies fans.
25. AUBURN (–)
Just like Tennessee, Auburn has played exactly three halves of tournament-level basketball through two games, and just like Tennessee, Auburn stays put in the rankings as a result. Trailing UL Monroe, the second worst team in the Sun Belt per KenPom, at halftime just isn’t a good look no matter how you slice it. But outscoring the Warhawks by 30 points in the second half is good enough to keep the Tigers undefeated—and in my top 25.
FALLING OUT: Ohio State (11), Florida State (16), Arkansas (18), Maryland (21), North Carolina (22), St. Bonaventure (24)
NEXT FIVE: Michigan State, Iowa, Loyola Chicago, Arkansas, Oklahoma