It’s been a while, hasn’t it?
In fact, it’s been two weeks, which should be considered a long time for a series I generally do weekly. You’ll have to forgive me; I had to skip last week due to cross-country travel, meaning I didn’t have time to write up a ranking.
But that was last week and this is now! And with free time in hand on Sunday night, it’s time we get back into the swing of things with my Bauertology Top 25 for Week 7.
A lot, and I mean A LOT, has changed over the course of two weeks. So don’t pay too much attention to the poll movement listed next to each team name in parentheses, as that number marks the total movement from my last poll two weeks ago and will likely fry your mind if you read too much into it.
Also worth mentioning: I haven’t put out any Bauertology bracket projections so far—I just don’t see the point in doing that when there isn’t a lot of data to go on—but that will be changing! Come the turn of the new year, I’ll be phasing out these top 25 rankings and phasing in the Bauertology brackets, as we’re getting to a point where there’s enough data available to make a solid bracket. The reason I’ll be phasing these rankings out is because I feel that they’re essentially an extension of my bracket coverage, except a little more focused on the top 25 teams, so I’d kind of be repeating myself if I did both a rankings and a bracket every week. Switching over to the brackets will also give myself more time and the opportunity to post multiple times a week; writing these top 25 polls are a rewarding but tiring process. With the brackets, I can focus less on the quality of writing and more on the quality of analysis, and I think that benefits everyone.
But I’m not abandoning these top 25 lists until I start getting into the bracket projections, so let’s jump into what I’ve got this week!
1. BAYLOR (+1)
Welcome back to the top, Baylor! Only a handful of Division I teams remain undefeated at this point in the season (six, to be exact), and the defending champions have been the best of the bunch. In tallying an absolute embarrassment of Villanova and a strong road win over Oregon, the Bears have reached the 10-0 mark and have reclaimed the top spot in the rankings for the first time since last year’s tournament ended. And here they will likely stay until 2022, as Alcorn State and Northwestern State make up the remaining 2021 schedule. Enjoy it, Waco!
2. ARIZONA (+1)
At the time of writing this, Arizona ranks No. 8 in the AP Poll, and that is simply disrespectful. Arizona’s résumé goes nearly toe-to-toe with Baylor’s, featuring a big neutral court win over Michigan, a top-tier win in Champaign over Illinois, and an 11-0 record midway through December. And remember: This is with a new-look roster and a new head coach. What the Wildcats are doing should be greater appreciated by the media. Maybe that’ll happen if the Wildcats can remain unbeaten by this time next week; a road trip to Knoxville and a date with Tennessee is in store.
3. DUKE (+1)
The first two selections are easy; here’s where it gets a little challenging. You could argue for Purdue or Duke at No. 3, but I’ll take the Blue Devils with a less embarrassing loss (71-66 at Ohio State) and huge non-conference wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga on the mortarboard. Duke has breezed past cupcakes since the start of December, but that changes this week; ACC play comes early this year, and the Blue Devils have a date with Virginia Tech on Wednesday. The gap between Duke and the rest of the ACC is massive (the Blue Devils are the only such ranked team), but VT is probably No. 2, so this is no small challenge for Coach K and company.
4. PURDUE (-3)
Purdue’s time at the top was short-lived thanks to the heroics of Ron Harper Jr. and a bad yet scrappy Rutgers squad. And the Boilermakers nearly blew it twice in a row; they needed overtime to overcome a 13-point deficit to NC State. But it seems like Saturday’s 77-48 blowout of Butler is just the medicine that Purdue needed to right the ship, especially with the 3-pointers starting to fall again (11-22 vs. Butler). Should be smooth sailing until the end of the year for Matt Painter’s squad; just Incarnate Word and Nicholls remain in 2021.
5. UCLA (+2)
In this hair-splitting analysis exercise, I’ll opt for UCLA next, as I think their one forgivable loss to Gonzaga and Quad 1 wins over Villanova and Marquette put their résumé at the top of this heap of teams that I feel aren’t that greatly separated. The good news is that UCLA has not been a one-man show like some people anticipated after last year’s tournament run; if anything Johnny Juzang has been the fourth best player on the Bruins after Tyger Campbell, Jules Bernard and Jaime Jaquez. The bad news is that UCLA has been on a lengthy COVID pause, and they aren’t scheduled to play again until Dec. 30. That rust is going to be hard to shake off against their next opponent: No. 2 Arizona.
6. IOWA STATE (+4)
Analytics be damned! KenPom and T-Rank may have yet to turn the corner on the Cyclones, but God knows I’m all in. For starters, they’re 11-0—unthinkable after last season’s disaster—and only five other teams in Division I can claim a record that good. Let’s also look at who they’ve beaten: neutral-floor wins over Xavier and Memphis at the NIT Season Tip-Off, a road win over Creighton, and a big 73-53 home win over in-state rival Iowa since the last one of these rankings. That’s four top-50 wins by my count. So let’s show a little respect! Will T.J. Otzelberger’s squad fall on their face come conference play? Perhaps. But let’s focus on that when we get there, and just spend the present cherishing what they’ve accomplished so far.
7. USC (+2)
And here’s another one of those undefeated teams. USC has looked a little mortal as of late, letting Long Beach State and UC Irvine hang around for too long, but ultimately, the Trojans are 12-0, and they’re the only team in the country that can say that. The downside is that their best win is at Washington State (a good win, but not eye-opening), and they have only conference foes from here on out, meaning their best victory in the non-conference slate is San Diego State. That could be problematic come time for the committee to analyze résumés… But for the time being, the Trojans are doing well, and there are three Pac-12 teams in my top 10. Conference of Champions indeed!
8. KANSAS (-1)
These rankings are sometimes a “what have you done for me lately?” business, and the answer for Kansas is, well, not a whole lot. Yeah, the Jayhawks can point to utter trouncings of Missouri and UTEP (and a close call against Stephen F. Austin that Kansas fans would be less likely to mention), but that opening-day win over Michigan State is really the only shining star on the Jayhawks’ résumé. We know they’re a good team, and we know Ochai Agbaji is a certified stud, but until Kansas plays some better competition again, they’re kind of stuck in limbo. Eh, not a terrible place to be, honestly.
9. ALABAMA (-4)
Oh, to think how high this Alabama team could have soared if not for the slip-up against Memphis. Three consecutive wins over Gonzaga, Houston and Memphis probably would have shot the Crimson Tide all the way up to No. 3 in my rankings, but Nate Oats’ crew couldn’t quite get the sweep, falling to the Tigers in an unsightly 92-78 defeat. Doesn’t help that they followed that up with a relative stinker against Jacksonville State, but they did win that game, so ultimately no harm done. Based on the scoring talent this team has, this will likely not be their last crack at No. 1 seed position.
10. GONZAGA (+6)
The sky was falling in Spokane as recently as two weeks ago, but things don’t look quite so bad right now. Yes, that three-game stretch in which the Bulldogs lost to Duke and Alabama and nearly lost to Tarleton State will hang like an albatross around their neck for many moons to come, but let’s not ignore those marquee wins over UCLA, Texas, and now Texas Tech. This Gonzaga squad isn’t as good as last year’s, and it’s taking more time for all the moving pieces to work in unison, but this is still a top-tier team, and the analytics all agree. It will probably be sooner rather than later that the Zags are back among the game’s elite.
11. LSU (+4)
Spoiler alert: All six remaining undefeated teams are in my rankings, and LSU is the fifth of those six. That’s mostly due to a weaker résumé; the Tigers’ win over Wake Forest in the Emerald Coast Classic is the only one of their 11 that registers as Quad 1. The offense is also reason to worry in a high-octane SEC, as LSU has shot a pathetic 30.2% from 3-point range; that can’t hold in conference play or the Tigers are in for a world of hurt. But that defense sure is a saving grace—now the No. 1 most efficient in the nation according to KenPom. If the Tigers can shake out those offensive woes by year’s end, they’ll be a scary sight for any opponent.
12. MICHIGAN STATE (+7)
You want to talk about teams with a sneaky good team sheet? Here’s Michigan State. If the selection committee were to meet today, the Spartans may honestly rank higher than 12th, in spite of their two losses, as those losses have both come to top-10 teams (Kansas and Baylor) and all three of their marquee wins (neutral vs. Loyola Chicago, neutral vs. UConn, at Minnesota) aren’t just Quad 1, they’re Quad 1A—those are the best of the best, surprising as it may be. The Spartans have also been hitting their deep shots, now tallying 38.6% completion in that category. We thought Michigan was the Big Ten team to watch from the Wolverine State, but their foes from East Lansing have been the ones stealing the show.
13. AUBURN (+10)
Somehow, in all the chaos that is college basketball, Auburn has emerged as one of the game’s top contenders. Since a double overtime loss to UConn, the Tigers have been red-hot, tallying seven straight victories. And those victories haven’t been against only scrubs either; Bruce Pearl and company have knocked off Loyola Chicago, Syracuse, UCF and Saint Louis in that span, the last of which came on the road. Unlike LSU’s defensive reliance, these Tigers have a balanced attack; they shoot the ball pretty well (mostly thanks to freshman sensation Jabari Smith) and can play tight D, too. Dec. 29’s matchup with LSU is going to be a great litmus test for each team as SEC play gets underway.
14. HOUSTON (-1)
Houston hasn’t exactly been slaughtering teams as of late like it was doing in much of the early season, but the Cougars have been getting along just fine. A one-point loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Dec. 11 is hardly any reason to be alarmed, and Kelvin Sampson’s squad has looked the part since, taking down Louisiana with ease and picking up a strong neutral-court win over Oklahoma State on Saturday. An analytics darling with a smothering defense and a good offense to boot, Houston remains the clear favorites in the AAC for the time being.
15. PROVIDENCE (+10)
While I do think Arizona is being somewhat disrespected by AP Poll voters, there is no team being more disrespected by the media than Providence. Even before you factor in this past week’s results, the Friars were 10-1 with wins over Wisconsin, Northwestern and Texas Tech, all Quad 1. Somehow that was only enough for “receiving votes.” That disrespect should come to an end this week with the Friars’ win in Storrs on Saturday, which was one hell of a way to kick off Big East play. They may come from a tiny state, but the Providence Friars are anything but a tiny team!
16. OHIO STATE (+6)
Like aforementioned Michigan State, Ohio State may also slot a couple spaces higher if the bracket were filled today. The Buckeyes’ two losses to Xavier and Florida came by a combined nine points, and their trio of victories over Seton Hall, Duke and Wisconsin are more than enough to offset that. And the starting lineup for this team is just so good—E.J. Liddell, Kyle Young, Zed Key, Jamari Wheeler and Justin Ahrens make up what might be the Big Ten’s most consistent starting five at the moment. Some more bench support would be nice, but the Buckeyes have shown that they’re more than capable when the main pieces are out on the floor.
17. KENTUCKY (-3)
It took long enough, but Kentucky finally has a win it can hang its hat on. That win took some finagling to schedule, what with COVID pauses and all that, but Coach Cal reeled in a great non-con substitute in North Carolina for a match in Vegas on Saturday, and his Wildcats capitalized, utterly thrashing the Tar Heels 98-69. That’s a massive win for a team that the metrics are quite fond of. So why do the Cats slip three spots in my rankings? Well, remember, the last update was two weeks ago, and Kentucky did also lose to mediocre Notre Dame in that timeframe…
18. SETON HALL (NEW)
Seton Hall has been a bit of a tough cookie to figure out. The Pirates weren’t on anyone’s radar to begin the year. Then they beat Michigan in Ann Arbor and instantly shot up the charts. Then they lost to Ohio State and struggled with California and Bethune-Cookman and fell right back out. Now they’ve won six in a row, including Thursday’s big win over Texas, and so they’re right back in the mix. Did you follow all that? Yes, this team has been quite up-and-down. But they’re in a middle of a big up section of the rollercoaster, and I’m willing to ride along with them.
19. XAVIER (NEW)
The Big East sure has been a pleasure, and a surprise, to watch. The conference’s two big preseason contenders, Villanova and UConn, are in the midst of a downswing, leaving room for Providence, Seton Hall and Xavier to float to the top. Just like the Friars and Pirates, the Musketeers have been electric, rattling off seven wins in a row since the surprising loss to Iowa State. Now with wins over Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and Marquette, Xavier is looking mighty nice on the team sheet. Another win at Villanova on Tuesday would certainly send the Musketeers up quite a few spots on this list.
20. COLORADO STATE (NEW)
And here’s the final undefeated team, in my top 25 for the first time this season! A lot of Colorado State’s wins have been very fluffy, and some of those fluffy wins weren’t very convincing (71-61 vs. Northeastern, 66-60 vs. Bradley), but remaining 10-0 through a month and a half is a tough feat that is worthy of praise nonetheless, especially with their latest win (66-63 over Mississippi State) proving that the Rams can play with the big boys. It’s too bad that COVID has wiped out a significant part of Colorado State’s non-con, as a planned bout with Alabama could have been massive should the Rams have pulled the upset. Instead, the Rams will turn their attention to conference play as the Mountain West favorites. Many landmines to avoid before March arrives.
21. TEXAS (-13)
Texas is looking like a bit of a nothing-burger right now. Sure, they’re 8-2, and the analytics say that they’re a top team in college basketball, but there’s not much beyond that to sink your teeth into. The Longhorns’ best win through a month and a half of play is a Quad 3 victory over Stanford on Sunday, while each of their prime non-conference opportunities to make a statement, Gonzaga and Seton Hall, resulted in defeats. That exceptionally weak non-con slate is going to hurt like hell in the long run, meaning Texas has to get most of its work done in a Big 12 that features top teams like Kansas and Baylor, a surprisingly competitive Iowa State, and a number of other good teams like Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech. That’s certainly no free ride.
22. WISCONSIN (-5)
Wisconsin is another tricky team to parse. In terms of recent performances, the Badgers are far removed from the top 25, having gotten whooped by Ohio State before nearly losing at home to Nicholls. But the full body of work obviously counts for something, and Wisconsin’s abundance of Quad 1 (Houston) and Quad 2 (Texas A&M, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Indiana) wins are clearly worthwhile at this point in the season. I won’t blame you if you think the Badgers’ outings over the past week and a half isn’t worthy of a top 25 spot, but I’ll be generous to the folks from Madison this time around.
23. WEST VIRGINIA (NEW)
It’s kind of shocking that West Virginia is being slept on. You’d think they’d be grabbing media attention having been one of the top programs in the Big 12 for years, featuring one of the best head coaches in all of college hoops on the sideline. But the Mountaineers have flied under the radar to a 10-1 record that features a slight misstep to Marquette and now two Quad 1 wins over UConn and UAB, which are enough to finally tilt WVU into my rankings. As mentioned in the Texas blurb, the road ahead in conference play is positively arduous, but I generally take Bob Huggins’ side when adversity comes West Virginia’s way.
24. OKLAHOMA (-)
Oklahoma has to have the worst loss of any team in these rankings with that Quad 4 overtime defeat to Butler on Dec. 7, at home no less, which doesn’t exactly pair pretty with the other loss on the Sooners’ team sheet (Nov. 21 vs. Utah State). What does look pretty are the wins over UCF, Florida, and especially that spanking of Arkansas a couple Saturdays ago—a win that was needed to keep the Sooners from falling out of my top 25. With Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State, Texas, West Virginia, and Oklahoma all finding a spot in my rankings (and Texas Tech sitting just outside), the Big 12 is absolutely loaded. Good luck figuring out this conference a month down the road.
25. TENNESSEE (-5)
I can’t pretend to understand the AP Poll’s love affair with Tennessee, a team that has looked very good at times but has also looked very bad. At this point they’ve basically mastered the art of playing good basketball two out of every three games, which I’m not sure is worthy of a top 25 ranking right now, but they do have that win over North Carolin and KenPom ranks them as the 8th-most efficient team in the nation, so I won’t argue too much. I’d just like to see a little consistency is all…
FALLING OUT: UConn (11), Villanova (12), Arkansas (18), San Francisco (21)
NEXT FIVE: Texas Tech, UConn, Minnesota, San Francisco, BYU