The Bauertology Top 25, fashionably late this week!
College basketball threw a lot of curveballs our way over the past week: numerous losses among my top 10 teams (Gonzaga isn’t as good as we thought?), another handful of teams coming out of the woodwork to surprise us early (Minnesota, anyone?), and other fun wackiness that only comes with college hoops.
Not much time to write this one this week, so enjoy a fairly abbreviated version of the Bauertology Top 25 for Week 5!
1. PURDUE (-)
With Duke’s loss to Ohio State, the debate for the top team in the nation has been solved… for now. Purdue is still rolling right along, and by adding a 93-65 thrashing of Florida State and a good 77-70 victory over Iowa under their belt, the Boilermakers now own a plethora of big early-season wins en route to their 8-0 start. T-Rank now has them favored in every remaining game… how long can Purdue remain unbeaten?
2. BAYLOR (+1)
Like Purdue, Baylor remains unbeaten through eight contests, though the Bears slot under the Boilermakers since their wins have come opponents of lesser quality. Still, Baylor is getting the job done after a considerable amount of turnover from their championship squad. But now a tall task stands ahead—Villanova visits Waco on Sunday.
3. ARIZONA (+2)
New head coach plus relatively new look team equals top-3 ranking in the following season? A formula that I don’t think computes for most teams, but Arizona has made it work. Now 7-0 after a convincing defeat of Oregon State, the Wildcats have hardly broken a sweat this season, aside from that OT game against Wichita State. With Oregon largely falling by the wayside, Arizona appears to be UCLA’s biggest threat to the Pac-12 crown. And for now, the Wildcats have the edge, at least rankings-wise.
4. DUKE (-2)
If this were college football, Duke would still be No. 1 since they got that quality loss, an important piece of any CFB résumé! But alas, this is college basketball, and so Duke drops with a defeat at Ohio State, albeit not by much since losing to a good Buckeyes team in Columbus is hardly reason to be alarmed. And remember: the Blue Devils have those wins over Gonzaga and Kentucky too, so the non-con résumé is shaping up nicely in Durham.
5. ALABAMA (+15)
Word of advice for all teams looking to jump 15 spots in the rankings: beating Gonzaga by nine in Spokane is generally a pretty good way to get noticed. Nate Oats is one hell of a coach, and Alabama is one hell of a team, especially when the ball is in their hands (they’ve scored 80 points in seven of their eight victories). This Alabama, not the one that lost to Iona in the ESPN Invitational, is the Crimson Tide I expect we’ll see for the majority of this season.
6. UCLA (+1)
The fun exercise of splitting hairs in these rankings often comes down to which résumés I like the best. And while UCLA has a loss while teams like USC, Iowa State and LSU don’t, the loss is a forgivable one to Gonzaga, and they easily have the best win of the bunch with their early November victory over Villanova. And there are more opportunities ahead with Marquette, North Carolina and Arizona on the slate before month’s end.
7. KANSAS (+2)
The proof that college basketball’s volatility is so much more forgiving than college football’s. A loss to fickle Dayton would normally do irreparable to damage to Kansas. But with other teams losing and Kansas having quality wins over Michigan State and Iona, now joined by a 20-point victory over St. John’s in Queens, the Jayhawks are already back up to No. 7. Like I said, forgiving sport! Oh, right, and here’s your weekly reminder that Ochai Agbaji is pretty good.
8. TEXAS (-)
Finally, it’s time to see what Texas is made of! The Longhorns have a fine collection of wins over mid-majors alongside their loss to Gonzaga… and not much else. But with a visit to Seton Hall on Thursday up next, we can finally learn a little more about this Texas team. Are they as good as they are on paper? Or will they fold against a talented team like they did last time out? Stay tuned!
9. USC (+2)
While teams like Baylor, Purdue and Duke are drawing the headlines, USC is quietly getting work done. Now 8-0, the Trojans are also 2-0 in conference play with a big home win over Utah and a hard-fought comeback victory on the road over a much-improved Washington State team. Now favored in every game until February by T-Rank, we’ll also keep an eye on the Trojans to see how long they maintain the donut in the loss column.
10. IOWA STATE (+3)
Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to Top 10 Iowa State. The Cyclones are 8-0; absolutely unthinkable after last year’s 2-22 team. Last week’s win over Creighton isn’t quite on the same level as their victories over Xavier and Memphis, but it’s a road win over a power conference team nonetheless, and we celebrate those here. Again, the metrics don’t like Iowa State being this high (65th in KenPom), so let’s enjoy the ride while it lasts.
11. UCONN (+1)
UConn’s 2-0 week slightly masks the Huskies’ struggles against KenPom No. 341 Maryland Eastern Shore (UConn led by as little as two with 12 minutes remaining), as does that wild double OT victory over Auburn last month. No more messing around though, as the slate ahead is intense: at West Virginia, St. Bonaventure on a neutral court, then Big East play. The time for cupcakes is over.
12. VILLANOVA (+3)
At what point do we just totally absolve Villanova of their two losses? The AP Poll seems to have already done it (ranked No. 6 yesterday), and while I’m not quite as forgiving for defeats, I can’t deny the results elsewhere—6-0 against teams not named UCLA and Purdue with the closest margin of victory being 15 points over Penn. UConn may slot ahead of Villanova today due to the total body of work, but Villanova is still the Big East’s best team for my money.
13. HOUSTON (+3)
Like Villanova, Houston may be due for a reassessment. Aside from that Wisconsin loss and that scare on opening night against Hofstra, the Cougars have simply been mauling the opposition. Aside from aforementioned Hofstra, every single one of their wins has come by at least 18 points, and the last four have all come by 29 or more. Elite offensively and especially defensively, it probably won’t be long until the Cougars stack up a résumé worthy of being in the top five. Might get there this week if they can upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
14. KENTUCKY (+3)
Kentucky basketball has been fairly boring as of late—big wins over not-so-impressive competition at home (much akin to Texas). We put somewhat of an end to that on Saturday when the Wildcats head to South Bend to take on Notre Dame—not a great team, per se, but better than the Albanys and North Floridas that Kentucky has been messing with lately. And Ohio State is up the following Saturday, followed by Louisville and Missouri, so this should be the last week without any Kentucky excitement for a while.
15. LSU (+3)
The NET rankings, released for the first time yesterday, really love the Tigers, slotting at them at No. 2. The AP Poll, on the flip side, has been slow to jump on the bandwagon, as they finally sneaked into the Top 25 for the first time this week. I’m somewhere in the middle. Their résumé is not nearly good enough to merit No. 2 (their best win is Wake Forest), but they’re also 8-0 through the first month having solid teams like Liberty, Belmont, Ohio and aforementioned Wake. No. 15 seems about right to me.
16. GONZAGA (-12)
Metric-wise, a drop of 12 spots is undoubtedly harsh for Gonzaga. Both T-Rank and KenPom still have the Bulldogs in the top spot by fairly convincing margins. And while predictive metrics do matter, it’s the performance that matters more here in Bauertology land. And Gonzaga just hasn’t been themselves as of late. You’d think a team as loaded as this one would rebound from a close loss to Duke by getting right back on the straight and narrow, but instead the Bulldogs fell to Alabama at home and nearly let 1-5 Tarleton State walk all over them. Not pretty. This team’s got to get it together sooner rather than later.
17. WISCONSIN (+6)
Wisconsin continues an impressive start to the 2021-22 campaign by tacking on two more wins over power conference opponents, this time in the form of Georgia Tech and Marquette. It would be nice if they could get that offensive efficiency up to snuff (No. 52 according to KenPom), but that Badger defense remains as stingy as ever, which will be much-needed against quality Big Ten offenses. Speaking of that… Indiana and Ohio State are up next.
18. ARKANSAS (+1)
Surely I’m not the only one who remains somewhat unimpressed by Arkansas. They fell from 10th to 12th in the AP Poll following a so-so performance against terrible Little Rock (more so a product of Alabama’s big win than what the Hogs did), but I’m still not as sold on them. That said, they are 8-0, and they do have decent wins over Cincinnati and Kansas State on their table, so they should be ranked. Just not close to the top 10 yet, in my estimation. Give it time.
19. MICHIGAN STATE (+6)
I feel pretty confident in my top 18; this is the first spot in the rankings where I’m a little unsure where to turn. I’ll take 7-2 Michigan State with their wins over UConn and Loyola Chicago, forgivable losses to Kansas and Baylor, and upside in the efficiency department. It’s also worth mentioning that they’ve finally turned on the 3-point machine—10-18 against Louisville and 12-26 against Toledo. Always trust Tom Izzo to get the job done!
20. TENNESSEE (NEW)
With the bottom of this top 25 being rather muddled, let’s get Tennessee back in the rankings. Still not a fan of that Villanova loss and those unimpressive performances against UT Martin and Tennessee Tech. But I do like that win over North Carolina and their two most recent performances against Presbyterian and Colorado: both confidence-giving wins. I’ll have even more confidence in the Volunteers if they take down Texas Tech on Tusday night.
21. SAN FRANCISCO (+1)
No longer the only owner of the prestigious title “nation’s only 9-0 team” thanks to Colorado State, I still like the Dons’ résumé a fair bit more, what with a Quad I win over UAB, a Quad II win over Davidson, and few concerning performances through nine games. San Francisco won’t get a crack at a true top-line opponent until 2022 (at Saint Mary’s on Jan. 1), so it’s important to keep that undefeated record in order to remain on this page.
22. OHIO STATE (NEW)
Ohio State has been a mystery at points this season, but a win over Duke means it’s time to put them back in the top 25. I’m still holding those first two performances against Akron and Niagara against them (probably more so than the losses to Xavier and Florida), but a win over a top-5 team in addition to a prior victory over Seton Hall means ranking a 6-2 Buckeyes squad is the right choice. Should be a good one against Wisconsin on Saturday!
23. AUBURN (NEW)
Talk about righting the ship! Since looking extremely mediocre against South Florida and losing a double overtime thriller to UConn, Auburn has looked mighty nice. Bruce Pearl’s squad is the owner of a four-game winning streak, and all have been against solid opponents: Loyola Chicago, Syracuse, UCF and Yale. With Auburn back in the rankings, a stacked SEC possesses six ranked teams (would have been seven if not for Florida’s enormous blunder against Texas Southern). That’s a stacked conference!
24. OKLAHOMA (NEW)
A team that has long been on my radar but never quite enough to be ranked finally gets over that hump with back-to-back wins over UCF and Florida, both Quad I opponents. Oklahoma shoots the ball well from short and plays good defense, a combination that leads to good gritty wins on the interior. Let’s see how that formula works out for them against ranked Arkansas, which also plays well inside but can’t hit from deep to save their life. That game’s on Saturday.
25. PROVIDENCE (NEW)
Why is nobody talking about Providence? Is it because of that ugly 18-point loss to Virginia? An awful blemish on their team sheet for sure, but outside of that game, they’re 8-0 with wins over Wisconsin, Texas Tech and Northwestern. That’s three top-tier wins. (Yes, Northwestern counts as Quad I right now.) They aren’t flashy, and they aren’t especially great in the any aspect of the game, but the Friars are winning games, and that’s what most important.
FALLING OUT: Florida (6), BYU (10), Memphis (14), Texas Tech (21), Indiana (24)
NEXT FIVE: Xavier, BYU, Florida, Colorado State, Seton Hall