Let’s get into one more early-season Bauertology before teams start diving head-first into conference play later this month.
Well, a couple teams have already played some conference games, perhaps most notably in the Big Ten where upsets have already been plentiful (that’s why we love this sport!), but for the most part, teams are working on finishing up their non-conference slates and will get into their conference schedules at the turn of the new year.
Since the last update, the undefeated teams count has withered down to seven, and all of those teams find themselves in the at-large field. Hot commodities like Virginia Tech, Arizona State, and Marquette have shot up the seed list, while previous powerhouses like North Carolina and Creighton have fallen on hard times and tumbled down the line. Take it all with a grain of salt—we’re less than a third of away into the season, after all—but we’re starting to see which teams to keep a watchful eye on heading into 2023.
It’s also worth noting that the NET rankings have starting dropping daily since the last bracket, but the results aren’t too pertinent to our analysis yet. It’s nice to see solid mid-major programs like Florida Atlantic, Sam Houston, and Southern Miss receive recognition as top 25 schools via this formula, but a closer look at their metrics and quality of wins reveal that they aren’t quite there yet… NET will be more important once we have some conference data to go on. For now, we’ll stick with the likes of KenPom and the eye test until each team’s at-large résumé comes more into focus.
On with the results then! Here’s the Bauertology projection for Tuesday, Dec. 13. (As I said last time, it’s early in the season, so I’m more prone to making a mistake like accidentally pairing a non-conference rematch in the first round or putting a team in the wrong location, so let me know if you catch any errors!)
THE BRACKET
THE TRUE SEED LIST, BUBBLE, AND BIDS BY CONFERENCE
