Those NET rankings can be a funny thing.
Whereas my last bracket had some good bracketology lessons for keeping an open mind when evaluating résumés and taking every result with a grain of salt, today’s lesson focuses on keeping an eye on how data moves from day to day, even when the latest results don’t appear to reflect those changes. (I guess this is more or less an extension of my previous point…)
Every little bit of data that the selection committee uses to evaluate teams changes on a daily basis; not just the pure results of wins and losses, but also metrics, strength of schedule numbers, and the NET rankings, which go on to formulate the quadrant system.
That last point is important, as sometimes games that are teetering on the edge of a quadrant can make a résumé look a lot better or a lot worse in a flash.
Today’s example of that is Michigan State. Earlier this week, I put together a whole big spiel on how their résumé wasn’t as impressive as some bracketologists were making it out to be, and I had them as an 11 seed—three seed lines below the Bracket Matrix’s projected 8 seed.
Well, I have them back as an 8 seed today.
To their credit, the Spartans did pick up a nice home win over Maryland in the time since. But that one win isn’t enough to justify a 3-seed-line jump. What is enough to justify that is that Michigan State, in addition to that victory, suddenly has six Quad 1 wins: a much prettier number than what it is was on Monday.
That’s because the recent ascent of Oregon into the NET top 50 and Wisconsin into the NET top 75 have helped flipped a pair of Michigan State’s good-for-your-résumé Quad 2 victories into great-for-your-résumé Quad 1 victories. So, by no real action of MSU’s own, their résumé is in a lot better shape now than it was just five days ago. Crazy how this stuff works sometimes!
You do also have some seed movements that more clearly align with what has happened since the last bracket; New Mexico is down on the bubble after two straight defeats to Nevada and Air Force, while Arkansas and West Virginia are rising up the rankings with big-time Quad 1A wins added in the last week. And then there’s the Last Four In/First Four Out region, which is just a complete mess of less-than-spectacular team sheets…
Find the rest of the changes below in the final pre-Super Bowl addition of Bauertology before you dive into today’s wonderful slate of college hoops action!
(Note that today’s bracket was posted on Saturday instead of Friday; we’re going to be changing the Monday/Friday brackets into Wednesday/Saturday brackets, as a certain beloved bubbly article makes its return on Monday…)
THE BRACKET
THE TRUE SEED LIST, BUBBLE, AND BIDS BY CONFERENCE
