Bye, bye Super Bowl, hello Bubble Watch. It’s a tradition like no other.
…Well, almost.
If you’ve been following Bauertology for some time, you’ll know that I didn’t get the chance to put together any Bubble Watch pieces at all last year with how busy my work schedule was; credit that to being understaffed at an extremely hectic time of year for high school and college sports coverage.
This year, we’re in better shape, at least for the time being (fingers crossed), so I’ve been returned my free time to put these articles together, much to my (and hopefully your) enjoyment. Bracket season just isn’t complete without Bubble Watch! Though I must warn you that I will be trying to keep these pieces shorter than in the past, both for my sake (these things take hours to write—argh!) and yours (these things take minutes to read—argh!). Don’t worry though, I’ll maintain my spunky and satisfying writing style, even if it means being a little less verbose.
That’ll be the case for every Bubble Watch article, except this one; it’s the introduction to a new season of Bubble Watch, so it needs to run a little longer.
For those who are returners to Bauer’s Bubble Watch, welcome back! For those who are new to the concept, here’s a brief explanation.
Bubble Watch is how we analyze which Division I men’s college basketball teams are in the conversation for selection to the NCAA Tournament. That selection of teams is limited to “at-large” contenders; i.e. teams that can reach March Madness without needing the automatic bid that comes with winning their conference tournament.
We split these contenders into three groups. First are the locks—teams that are unquestionably, without a doubt, absolutely, positively heading to the NCAA Tournament… barring a late-season collapse of epic proportions. (No team that we’ve ever locked in the history of Bauer’s Bubble Watch has gone on to miss the tournament, so we’re batting 1.000!)
The second group is safe for now—teams that, if the selection committee created their bracket today, would definitely be chosen. But they aren’t locks, because they’ve still got work to do before selection day comes to ensure their spot.
Otherwise, they could slip into our third and final category, the bubble. Teams on the bubble cannot be guaranteed any safety at the present moment; they’re either just on the inside of the bracket (hooray) or just on the outside (dang). It’s an uncomfortable place to be, but it’s better than not being in consideration at all.
Obviously, the goal for every team should be to work its way off the bubble and into lock status; many teams will do this over the course of the next month, and many teams will falter. (That’s when we get to make that satisfying “POP!” sound.) This is what makes Bubble Watch so full of drama and suspense!
At the present moment, Bauer’s Bubble Watch is considering 58 teams as at-large contenders, and they break down by number into our three categories like this:
- Locks: 16 teams
- Safe for now: 23 teams
- Bubble: 19 teams (for 7 available spots)
With that introduction out of the way, let’s get into our bubble breakdown, going conference by conference, team by team, to figure out who’s feeling fine and who’s feeling the heat.
It’s good to be back.
ACC
- Locks: Virginia
- Safe for now: Miami, Duke, NC State, Pittsburgh
- Bubble: North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
It’s a good thing the ACC is pretty top-heavy this season, because this league kind of stinks. After finishing fifth among the six power conferences in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin last year, the ACC is in a distant last place and seventh overall, slotting behind the the Mountain West—yeesh. Makes sense when this league harbors a bunch of the worst P6 teams college basketball has to offer (Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Florida State, just to name a few). Of course, all bets are off when March comes around, as the ACC truly made the most of its five bids a year ago with three in the Elite Eight and two in the Final Four… the Big Ten could never!
The ACC should have more selections this year, and they’ve at least got one bona fide title contender with Virginia, the conference’s sole lock in the first Bubble Watch. After a down year that resulted in a trip to the NIT a season ago, Tony Bennett has his Cavaliers back at the top of the ACC’s crop, thanks to much improved shooting, a more well-rounded offensive-defensive split, and that classic snail’s pace tempo that Virginia forces its opponents to play.
Aside from the Hoos, the ACC still has plenty to work out in the next month.
Miami: For a while there, the metrics were pretty insistent that Miami was merely a decent team; it was as recent as Jan. 30 that the Hurricanes ranked 45th in the NET and 39th in KenPom. Since tallying a pair of Quad 1 victories—a grind-it-out win at Clemson and a 22-point home obliteration of Duke—and a Q2 victory over Virginia Tech for good measure, things are looking much sunnier in the Sunshine State. It shouldn’t be long until the Canes are cemented into March for the second straight season.
Duke: Duke, meanwhile, likely is just a decent team. Growing pains have been eminent in Year 1 of post-Coach K, as the Blue Devils have had their troubles with turnovers and scoring the ball consistently. (Not to mention their top-ranked freshman class has been fairly underwhelming.) Even then, Duke hasn’t lost to any bad teams against a fairly rigorous schedule, and their Q1/Q2 output and other team sheet numbers indicate a middle-of-the-pack team that shouldn’t have much trouble fitting into the bracket, so long as they stay the course against what should be a pretty lax schedule ahead.
NC State: You’d think a power conference team with 20 wins by Feb. 13 would be a near-lock for March Madness, but NC State’s résumé just doesn’t have a lot of meat on the bones. The predictive numbers remain unconvinced by the Wolfpack, and a poor non-conference strength of schedule (rank #243) paired with only two or three eye-popping wins could be problematic. The good news for Kevin Keatts and company is that they haven’t taken a loss worse than Quad 2, and there aren’t any more Q3/Q4 landmines to step on. Though Wolfpack fans may not like the 8 or 9 seed this team is projected to earn, there doesn’t appear to be much reason to worry about not earning a bid at all.
Pittsburgh: Fifth time’s the charm! (That’s how the saying goes, right?) After four seasons of uninspiring basketball under Jeff Capel, Pitt finally has a winner again in Year 5. And their wins aren’t just empty calories; the Panthers have knocked off league-lock Virginia, soon-to-be lock Miami, North Carolina twice, and every other ACC team they’ve played except Clemson and Duke. Sure, the iffy metrics and ugly Quad 4 home loss to Florida State on Jan. 21 might provide some reason to fret, but four Q1 wins and an astonishing ability to win on the road (7-2 in true road games) settle the argument of whether or not Pitt would presently be in line for a tournament invite.
North Carolina: The fall from preseason #1 to possible NIT team has been well-documented in Chapel Hill, given the Tar Heels’ recent three-game skid and horrid track record against quality competition (0-8 in Quad 1… yuck). A 20-point win over Clemson on Saturday at least proves that the sky hasn’t completely fallen yet, but when expectations were so sky-high just a few months ago, talks of doom are going to stick with a North Carolina team somewhere in Last Four In/First Four Out territory. With Miami, NC State, Duke, and Virginia all still ahead before the ACC tournament, the opportunities are there for UNC to repair what’s broken. They just need to capitalize.
Clemson: Meanwhile, 270 miles southwest in Tigertown, SC, the sky might actually be falling. Clemson’s leaky résumé had long been protected by an unprecedented 10-1 start against conference competition. But with three losses and zero victories in the last 14 days—those defeats coming by an average of 12 points—the cracks are starting to show; the Tigers have slid 28 spots in NET from their peak on Jan. 16, and their predictive metrics and non-con SOS (#343) were never pretty to begin with. Clemson can at least point to a 7-4 record in the first two quadrants as a reason to remain in the conversation, but with no truly in-your-face victories and the weight of three bad losses to carry, the postseason dream is quickly becoming a nightmare.
Wake Forest: The path to a Wake Forest at-large feels like a tough sell, but with W’s over three Carolina rivals, the Demon Deacons are worth a glance. Their 4-8 Q1/Q2 record and sub-50 metrics in every category clearly place Steve Forbes’ squad on the exterior, though that could change in a hurry with visits to Miami and NC State over the next 10 days. Making a splash (maybe even going 2-0) on this upcoming road trip would be critical for keeping March Madness hopes afloat in Winston-Salem. It’d be a difficult task, but not impossible, considering how out-of-his-mind Tyree Appleby has been playing for much of the past month.
Virginia Tech: Wake Forest’s appearance on Bubble Watch requires 17-spots-higher-in-NET Virginia Tech to show up too, but that’s about as far out as the bubble reaches. The Hokies have limited time and opportunities to turn their 1-7 conference start into something resembling an NCAA Tournament résumé. They seemed up to the task with an upset win over Virginia on Feb. 4… then expectations quickly came crashing back down to earth with VT’s second loss of the season to Boston College just four days later. Less than ideal. No matter how you slice it, there’s much climbing to do for the Hokies in the final month.
BIG 12
- Locks: Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State
- Safe for now: TCU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
- Bubble:
For as weak as the ACC is collectively in present year, the Big 12 is just the opposite. This conference is a bloodbath. A slaughterhouse. A tour-de-force. Throw every cliché in the book at it—this year’s Big 12 is good. Like, historically good. Like, best-power-conference-in-the-past-six-seasons good, according to KenPom.
That sentiment is reflected in the conference’s five locks: the most in a first edition Bubble Watch ever. Defending champion Kansas and standings leader Texas have the metrics and quality wins to make a case for a 1 seed (especially impressive for the latter considering the Longhorns have done most of their winning with an interim coach), Baylor is looking like the offensive powerhouse it intended to be after a slow start to conference play, and Kansas State and Iowa State have been tremendous success stories with first- and second-year head coaches, respectively.
That leaves us with three teams (maybe four, if Oklahoma can get its act together) vying for the chance to join the fab five above.
TCU: TCU is about as close as you can get to being a lock without actually being one. The precaution here is that if the Horned Frogs were to follow up their current three-game losing streak by, say, dropping their last six (look at their schedule—not out of the question!), then there would be some reason to be concerned. That’s an unlikely scenario though; the more likely course of action is that star junior Mike Miles returns from injury to guide TCU to its best NCAA Tournament seed since 1998. So, have some patience, Frog Nation. That lock is coming soon enough.
West Virginia: A 15-10 team that just got blown out by 34 points on Saturday is, more likely than not, going to the NCAA Tournament. That’s life in the Big 12! A loss of that magnitude has been a rarity in Morgantown, though; West Virginia’s postseason case has thrived on the Mountaineers’ strong metrics, earned from matching up well with just about every team they’ve played, win or lose. Sure, their 4-9 Quad 1 record may seem unimpressive on the surface, but consider the fact that they’ve nearly played as many opponents in just Quad 1A (9) as they have in Quads 2 through 4 combined (13). So, yeah, going 15-10 against that grueling of a slate is honestly pretty impressive.
Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State was the closest thing the Big 12 had to a bubble team, until the Cowboys stormed into Hilton Coliseum on Saturday and snatched a Quad 1A win in the form of Iowa State for a season sweep of the Cyclones. Winners of five straight in the toughest conference in America with top-30 efficiency numbers and as many Quad 1 wins as the Mountaineers, Oklahoma State is looking like the real deal. If this thing holds, that’s eight out of a possible 10 bids for this ridiculous conference. Not to exaggerate, but that’s, uh, pretty good.
BIG EAST
- Locks: Xavier, UConn, Marquette
- Safe for now: Creighton, Providence
- Bubble: Seton Hall
It’s bizarre to see the Big East in Bubble Watch with no Villanova in sight, but that’s where we are. Jay Wright’s sudden retirement from coaching has brought on a tumultuous season for the Wildcats, leaving the door wide open for fellow conference foes to make their claim as the Big East’s top team.
One such adversary that could make a claim for the crown is Xavier; with a 19-6 record and massive wins over Marquette, Providence, and UConn twice, it’s like Sean Miller never left. There’s also UConn; the Huskies aren’t the projected 1 seed people thought it could be after starting the year 14-0, but they are a very good team that did enough work in the non-con to warrant an early lock despite a middling 8-7 record in Big East play. Finally, there’s current conference standings leader Marquette. After years of fine but unspectacular play under Steve Wojciechowski, the Golden Eagles are now playing a brand of clean, efficient basketball taught by coach of the year candidate Shaka Smart that is both dangerous to compete against and fun to watch.
Those three locks are likely to be joined in March by two or three more teams, listed below—that is, barring some 2021 Georgetown nonsense in the conference tournament. Something tells me that that scenario isn’t too likely to occur this time around…
Creighton: The Big East’s fully operational Death Star, otherwise known as the Creighton Bluejays, is not quite a lock yet. Before they started blasting everything in sight, there was a time when these Bluejays lost six straight games in late 2022. Of course, three of those came without ultimate glue guy Ryan Kalkbrenner on the floor. The selection committee will take that absence into account when seeding Creighton, but those six losses don’t just vanish into thin air either. Not that it’ll matter; the Bluejays have won eight straight conference contests and are a top-12 team in all efficiency measures. As soon as the results match the metrics (and that time is approaching rapidly), Creighton will be good as gold.
Providence: Providence has a bit of a reputation for having the most mind-numbing tournament résumé year in and year out. Usually, they’re either erasing garbage November losses with historic late-season winning streaks (see 2020) or winning game after game by razor-thin margins to keep the quadrants happy and the efficiency measures nonplussed (see 2022). That zaniness doesn’t really apply this year. Providence sports an OK, if not slightly underwhelming résumé that lacks flashiness but has the semi-strong wins and middle-of-the-line metrics that a typical, boring 8 seed usually wears. Providence boring… who would have thought?
Seton Hall: The task of building a six-bid Big East falls on Seton Hall, and the outlook isn’t exactly cheery. It seemed like a possibility eight days ago when the Pirates just finished wrapping up its seventh victory in the last eight tries. But back-to-back losses to Creighton and Villanova (no longer the Big East’s creme de la creme, but still a tricky out) have brought Seton Hall back to reality—a reality that includes troublesome metrics, uninspiring quadrant outputs, and a record of 14-11, which typically does not translate to an at-large. Clearly some work to do for the Pirates.
BIG TEN
- Locks: Purdue
- Safe for now: Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland
- Bubble: Wisconsin, Penn State
Love it or hate it, the Big Ten is still a very strong conference, even it can’t seem to shake its March woes. With 10 viable at-large candidates (and another on the fringe with Michigan), it’s clear to see why.
No team better represents that strength than Purdue, the current team of choice for the tournament’s top overall seed. Though having a goliath in Zach Edey certainly makes things easier, the Boilermakers are more than just that. They’re efficient. They shoot the ball well. They rebound better than any team. They give up good looks for great ones. They confuse opponents with their methodical style of basketball. In Matt Painter’s 18 years as coach of this team, this may be his most complete one.
After Purdue, the Big Ten is bit of a mess—a good mess, but a mess nonetheless. With nine more teams in consideration, and only one or two being near lock status, this conference is likely to harbor the girthiest word count week in and week out…
Indiana: At least we won’t have to write about Indiana for very long. The Hoosiers’ season thus far can be summed up in a very satisfying U-shape—a preseason top-15 ranking and 7-0 record at the start, a worrisome 3-6 holiday season stretch in the middle, and an 8-1 span with marquee wins over Illinois, Rutgers, and arch-rival Purdue at the end. With Trayce Jackson-Davis playing the best ball in the country of anyone below 7’4″, the Hoosiers are living up to their lofty expectations—and official lock-dom is just an inch or two away.
Illinois: Illinois shouldn’t be too far behind. Like Indiana, it’s been a bit of an up-and-down season for the Fighting Illini, but one that ultimately has Brad Underwood’s squad in a good place. After some rough patches in December, this lineup half-comprised of Big 12 transfers (good idea snagging some good players from a good conference, Brad) has jelled really well—notably on the defensive end—and is a two-point loss in Iowa City away from being 9-2 since the new year began. The metrics love ’em, the quadrants look OK, they’ve got some eye-catching non-con wins… all is well in Urbana-Champaign.
Rutgers: Rutgers’ transformation from conference doormat to yearly contender has been stunning to watch. After winning a combined nine conference games in their first four seasons in the Big Ten, the Scarlet Knights have been a tournament team each of the past two Marches (three, if you count 2020), and this year, they’re poised to earn their highest seed since 1979 and maybe ever. Buckets have been a little harder to come by with the likes of Geo Baker and Ron Harper departed, but that’s a sacrifice you can afford to make when you’re trotting out the second-most efficient D1 defense every night. Steve Pikiell, give yourself a pat on the back.
Iowa: For every Big Ten team that’s great at keeping the opponent from putting the ball in basket and sometimes struggles itself on that end, you can always count on Iowa to buck the trend! The Hawkeyes have been an offense-first outfit for the last decade, and it’s mostly worked out in their favor; it’s their ability to score 80 points a game that’s earned them five of their seven Quad 1 wins. (It’s also their ability to let up 90 points a game that’s earned them the single ugliest loss of the season. Oops.) Jokes aside, that quality win output paired with reasonable metrics has Iowa primed to receive its fourth consecutive March Madness invite.
Northwestern: Beating the consensus #1 overall team is a pretty good way to show the selection committee that you’re for real. Three teams have done that this year: near-lock Indiana, near-lock Rutgers, and, as of Sunday, your Northwestern Wildcats! But that’s honestly just the tip of the iceberg; Boo Buie and friends own six Quad 1 wins, no losses worse than NET #68, and a 6-2 record on the road—a preposterous number in the Big Ten. Didn’t anyone tell the Wildcats that Big Ten teams aren’t supposed to win on the road? Well, they’re doing it. And they’re inching closer and closer to their second NCAA Tournament berth in program history.
Michigan State: Though the days of being a perennial top seed have since departed, Michigan State is still a safe bet for March annually, and this year is no different. Things were starting to get sweaty after the Spartans scored 55 points in 66 possessions in a loss to Rutgers—MSU’s fifth defeat in seven games—but they got back on track, as they usually do, with a home win over Maryland and a much-needed Quad 1 road victory over Ohio State. This is far from Tom Izzo’s prettiest Spartans team, but it’s a pretty good one; so long as the sailing remains smooth in the final month, “pretty good” will be good enough.
Maryland: “Pretty good” is probably the most apt phrase for describing the middle section of this conference, and Maryland fits right into that label. Though the Terrapins have been on both the right end (Minnesota, 81-46) and wrong end (Michigan, same exact score, strangely) of some blowouts, you typically know what you’re getting with Maryland—a good, not great performance that will rarely crack the upper echelon (0-5 in Quad 1A) but won’t disappoint either (11-0 in Q3/Q4). It’s not the most awe-inspiring résumé in the land, but it is, as it was with Michigan State, good enough.
Wisconsin: Having the number 80 in the NET column of the team sheet is typically grounds for immediate disqualification from at-large consideration. Of course, this isn’t a typical team sheet, or Wisconsin wouldn’t be here. The Badgers may perform pitifully in efficiency standards, ranking 70th in KenPom and 74th in BPI, but the actual wins and losses (eight of the former in Q1/Q2 and none of the latter in Q3/Q4) tell a different story. Think of this résumé as 2022 Rutgers lite—dreadfully low metrics counteracted with satisfactory win quality. That was enough to just eke the Scarlet Knights in; will it be the same story with the Badgers a year later?
Penn State: Penn State’s “let’s play Big Ten basketball without a big man” experiment has just about run its course, and after some early success, the strategy is crashing and burning. The numbers may say that the Nittany Lions are the best shooting team in the conference, but they don’t do it consistently enough, especially not on the road, where they haven’t won a game since Dec. 10. They have the talent to constantly keep things interesting—thanks to scoring, rebounding, assisting machine Jalen Pickett—but not enough to actually win. There are still opportunities ahead for a turnaround, but it has to come sooner rather than later.
PAC-12
- Locks: Arizona, UCLA
- Safe for now:
- Bubble: USC, Oregon, Arizona State
The ACC may be top-heavy, but there’s nothing in college basketball like the duopoly at the head of the Pac-12.
By just about every metric, Arizona and UCLA rank as two of the top 10 teams in the land, while everybody else out west is on the bubble at best. Arizona looks to be the more likely of the two at netting the Pac-12 a 1 seed in March, given its astonishing 5-0 record against Quad 1A opposition. It would be Tommy Lloyd’s second appearance on the top line in two years as the Wildcats’ coach. (Safe to say he was a pretty good hire.) UCLA, meanwhile, lacks the punchy wins of a typical top team, but, boy, do they look the part. Aside from a rare miscue against USC on Jan. 26, Mick Cronin’s Bruins haven’t allowed 70 points in a game since mid-November. The team sheet doesn’t do it justice; this is a dangerous group.
It’s a steep, steep drop after that, though.
USC: Good idea: scrapping out a road win over Arizona State then beating title contender UCLA by 13 to solidify yourself in the tournament field. Bad idea: getting punked at Oregon then dropping your second straight at NET #207 Oregon State to put your postseason case right back in jeopardy. USC learned this the hard way, and suddenly, the Pac-12’s hopes of being more than a two-bid conference are damper than ever before. The Trojans at least have that aforementioned UCLA win and OK performance numbers to stay right around the cut line, but, suffice it to say, this losing streak cannot extend past two with Cal and Stanford up next.
Oregon: You’ve got to give Dana Altman credit—he somehow always has his Ducks in the conversation around this time of year. It didn’t end too well last season, as Oregon lost six of its final eight to cement a spot in the NIT. But this time, the closing slate this is much less arduous, and the Ducks already have eight wins in Quads 1 and 2 (one of those over Arizona) to go with OK efficiency numbers. Saturday’s seven-point loss to UCLA will go down as a missed opportunity, but as long as Oregon doesn’t falter from here, there may be light at the end of the tunnel.
Arizona State: Oh, Arizona State. Where would we be without you and your obsession with being on the bubble? The Sun Devils did this to themselves; they were 15-3 a month ago and were projected to earn as high as an 8 seed in some circles. Now, they’re almost certainly on the outside looking in—losing four of five will do that to you—and narrow escapes against Stanford and Cal this past week don’t exactly improve their standing. A tough but bountiful schedule remains: Colorado, Utah, at Arizona, at UCLA, at USC. Time to go to work.
SEC
- Locks: Alabama, Tennessee
- Safe for now: Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn
- Bubble: Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Kentucky
If you like variety, the SEC is the conference for you! We’ve got rocket offenses, stifling defenses, and possessions so fast, it’ll make your head spin. We’ve got terrible teams that can turn a mundane Tuesday into something you’ll never forget (South Carolina beat Kentucky in Lexington??) and top-tier teams that can leave you wondering what the hell just happened (Alabama lost by 24 at Oklahoma???).
You’re guaranteed to have fun with the SEC, and the most fun team this year has been Alabama. Aside from that aforementioned mishap, the Crimson Tide have been dynamite, with their blazing 73.5 possessions per game leading Division I en route to a 22-3 start and a zero in the SEC L’s column as of this post. Or, if smothering defense is more your style (though Alabama does have a really good defense too), Tennessee is the team for you. The Volunteers occasionally get lost offensively (see a 46-43 home victory over Auburn on Feb. 4), and they’ve been less reliable as of late. But when they’re holding opponents to a record 24.2% from 3-point range, it’s easy to see why they’re able to pull out so many of these slogfests.
So far, no others teams have been able to separate themselves from the pack quite like the two above. (Seems a bit unfair that Alabama and Tennessee get to have the best teams in basketball AND football. Oh, well. At least Georgia balances it out.) But the SEC does house six others (maybe seven, pending Florida’s finish) who have a puncher’s chance at earning a tournament berth a month down the road.
Arkansas: The Eric Musselman Razorbacks are a team of habit: come into the season with big expectations, start conference play off on the wrong foot, then go on a late-season tear to elevate to a top seed. That’s been the game plan each of these past three seasons—and it’s worked—though this year’s ascent hit a snag with Saturday’s unexpected home loss to Mississippi State. Still plenty of time to kick it into another gear though, especially with freshman sensation Nick Smith back from his two-month absence. The efficiency numbers say the Hogs can be one of the nation’s most dangerous teams; I’m inclined to believe it.
Missouri: How about the Tigers? Year 1 of the Dennis Gates era has gone far better than anyone could have expected, thanks to one of the most electric offenses in the country. (It sure makes the task of winning games easier when you have an effective field goal percentage of 56.1 and your star player shoots 47% from deep in conference games.) The predictive metrics are still hesitant on the Tigers, as they place 48th in KenPom and 52nd in Sagarin, but Missouri says, “To hell with your predictive metrics! We’re just going to win.” And at 19-6 overall with eight Quad 1/2 wins (two in Quad 1A), they’ve done just that.
Auburn: These Tigers are a bit of the inverse of the ones above; Auburn is more defensive-minded and scores better in the eyes of KenPom and the like but lacks the showy wins of a higher seed—a home win over Arkansas and a 43-42 barn-burner over Northwestern is all there is to show for Quad 1. There’s also some concern to be had over the Tigers’ recent spell of five losses in six games, though that has come against easily the toughest stretch of their schedule so far. A home bout with Missouri and a trip to Vanderbilt this week serve as “get right” games—the results should tell us whether or not we need to worry about Auburn.
Mississippi State: In a season of peaks and valleys for many teams, none have been more stark than the bunch from Starkville: winners of 11 straight to begin 2022, losers of eight of nine around the new year, and winners of the last five. That kind of fluctuation makes the Bulldogs a tricky team to pin down. What we do know is that they play excellent basketball on defense and leave a lot to be desired on offense, but at least they’re averaging more than a point per possession across this win streak—something they couldn’t say during their 1-7 start to SEC play. It’s not exactly must-watch basketball, but it’s enough to get the job done—and it could get Mississippi State into the bracket if that trend continues.
Texas A&M: Since the start of 2023, Texas A&M has looked like one of the better teams in college basketball. The Aggies are 10-2 in the new year, all against the SEC (with forgivable losses at Kentucky and Arkansas being the only errors), and the metrics place them in the the neighborhood of a safe 9 seed. Problem is, the results from 2022 count, too—results that include two Quad 4 defeats against the 257th-ranked non-con SOS. Not pretty. It also doesn’t help that the Aggies suffer from the same dearth of true quality victories as Auburn. Difference here is that the Tigers have had their opportunities; the toughest tests are still yet to come for A&M.
Kentucky: The discourse around this team has been pretty unbearable, so let’s keep it brief: Kentucky is in trouble. This is essentially the exact same profile as North Carolina—16-9 overall, decent schedule and efficiency numbers, rotten performance against Quad 1 opponents—except the Wildcats are also forced to hold on to a putrid Q4 home loss to NET #253 South Carolina. The only piece of this résumé putting in any real work is that fateful win in Knoxville on Jan. 14; Kentucky would be dead in the water without it. Probably don’t need me to say it, but surrounding that win with something, anything worthwhile should be the first order of business.
OTHERS
- Locks: Houston, Gonzaga
- Safe for now: Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Nevada
- Bubble: Boise State, New Mexico, Memphis, Utah State, Oral Roberts, Charleston
Welcome to the dreaded “Others” category, the Bubble Watch equivalent of the Island of Misfit Toys. Though the toys you’ll find here are the good kind of misfits—ones that have exceeded the status of their respective mid-major conferences to earn at-large consideration.
Some of these are just no-brainers; Houston could very well be in line for a 1 seed, as the Cougars are the number one team of choice in every predictive metric, with a weird home loss to Temple in January being the only dark mark on an otherwise shimmering team sheet. Gonzaga, though no longer the sole dominant force in the WCC, remains a top-of-the-line team that typically tends to have its way when the ball is in its hands. The NET and the efficiency averages may prefer Saint Mary’s of the two, but the Bulldogs have the standout victories and strong schedule numbers that the Gaels lack.
Our collection of misfit teams next in line range from the WCC, to the C-USA, to the Mountain West—a mid-major conference playing so well that it arguably deserves its own separate section. Hmm… I’ll think about it.
Saint Mary’s: So, Saint Mary’s is mortal after all—Thursday’s shocking loss at Loyola Marymount to put the kibosh on the Gaels’ perfect conference record proved that—but there’s still much to like with this team, namely their crushing defense and homegrown star-in-the-making Aidan Mahaney. The predictive metrics have been in love with the Gaels since day one, and, for the most part, they’ve backed it up. A top-20 team by every measure (except SOR, for some reason), Saint Mary’s needs just one more week of good work to bring the lock over Moraga.
San Diego State: As mentioned in the ACC blurb, the Mountain West actually ranks ahead of the ACC in the efficiency margin standings. Though that achievement has been a group project, the MVP of that collaboration is San Diego State. The Aztecs are as deep and experienced as it gets—a rotation of nine juniors and seniors who don’t offer much star power individually but shine as a unit. The result is good, clean basketball and a contest every time they take the floor (only one of their five losses has come by double digits). You’d like to see a little more oomph in the upper quadrant of this team sheet, but even then, the résumé as it stands is pretty rock solid.
Florida Atlantic: The Owls, huh? Not a soul could have predicted that Florida Atlantic would be this year’s 2022 Murray State or 2019 Wofford, but, man, have they been a hoot to watch (pun fully intended). Dusty May’s group has battled through the toughest version of Conference USA in a decade to reach a 22-2 record, a 14-1 mark in CUSA, and a top-20 NET ranking—all without dropping a Q3 game or worse. That’s certainly a tournament team sheet right now, though a bottom-tier NCSOS and zero wins against projected at-large teams do leave some room for doubt. Best to just polish off that remaining schedule and head into the postseason at 27-2. No way for the committee to argue you out at that point.
Nevada: Is the Nevada renaissance back? It’s easy to forget the Wolf Pack were considered somewhat of a tournament staple during the Musselman days, as the Steve Alford regime has yet to see any kind of postseason. That appears to be in line to change this year, as Nevada’s turnover-averse play and surprisingly important free-throw shooting have resulted in the Mountain West’s second-best résumé. Of course, UNR still needs to avoid upcoming traps in the likes of Fresno State and Wyoming on the road. But the fact that the Pack have already etched a victory over every other MWC at-large contender is massive. Plenty of reasons to have hope in Reno.
Boise State: By just about all efficiency measures, this is the best Boise State team of the modern era. The résumé wouldn’t go quite that far—the Broncos need to keep at the grind to patch up the spotty marks in Q1, Q3, and Q4—but the foundation for a second-straight NCAAT appearance is there with the defense playing as well as it ever has under Leon Rice (only five teams have landed more than 70 points on the Broncos all season). Of all the teams currently in “bubble” territory, Boise State is likely the most secure; expect a jump in rank if the Broncos can come out of the next week unscathed.
New Mexico: Things got real sour real fast down in Albuquerque. The Lobos, former holder of the “last remaining undefeated D1 team” title, have sunk from 18-2 to 19-6 in the blink of an eye, with all four defeats in that span coming in very winnable games. That slump has been enough for New Mexico to plummet 18 spots in NET—and that could be the difference between “likely in” and “right on the fringe,” the latter being where most bracketologists have the Lobos currently situated. This upcoming pair of contests against Wyoming and San José State could be far more important than anyone imagined three weeks ago.
Memphis: Life is tough as a mid-major; just ask Memphis. The Tigers are 19-6—those six defeats coming by a combined 21 points—with a top-100 strength of schedule and every metric but BPI placing in the top 40. And yet, the consensus right now is that Memphis is just barely, by the skin of its teeth, inside the tournament field. That might seem like a slight considering last year’s Tigers squad netted a 9 seed with far worse losses, but remember, that 2022 résumé relied heavily on a regular season sweep of Houston. This year’s group hasn’t been afforded that luxury… yet. Circle Feb. 19 and March 5 on your calendars, Tigers fans.
Utah State: Never before has a team earned an at-large bid with zero Quad 1 wins and two Quad 4 losses, and I don’t foresee Utah State being the first. As fun as this team is to watch when they’re flingin’ it from deep at a 40% clip, the Aggies’ current résumé, which features an 0-4 record against the best of the Mountain West and two disastrous December home losses, leaves much to be desired. There’s still time to fix what’s broken, as home clashes with Nevada (Feb. 18) and Boise State (March 4) qualify as Q1 for the time being. If the Aggies can’t convert, the dream of a five-bid MWC is as good as dead…. unless, of course, they go on to win the conference tournament—something they’ve done twice in the last half-decade. Maybe just plan on that.
Oral Roberts: Very few teams from truly puny conferences can do enough to separate themselves from the pack. Oral Roberts is one. The Golden Eagles, famous for their Sweet Sixteen run in 2021, are far better than that group; they haven’t dropped a Summit League game yet, with their 14 conference victories coming by an average of 20 points. Throw in no losses below Quad 1, the #38 overall NET, and an impressive NCSOS number (#6 overall), and, hey, we have a case here, folks. Ultimately, ORU probably can’t lose another game the rest of the regular season, given their sole win against the NET top 100 (Liberty on Dec. 12), but if they do make it to the finish line at 23-4, their name will be in the discussion.
Charleston: For as fun as 2022-23 has been for Charleston—a season that has included a 20-game win streak and a stint in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2002—the Cougars’ at-large profile is looking mighty suspect. A 23-3 record sure looks good on paper, but that number was accrued against the 329th-ranked schedule; only 34 of 363 D1 teams have had it easier. Like Oral Roberts, Charleston’s profile lacks quality (sub-50 metrics, no Q1 wins). Unlike Oral Roberts, Charleston’s profile comes with the baggage of back-to-back Quad 3 losses. Anything but a 29-4 record entering Selection Sunday is unlikely to be enough.