Ah, the top-16 preview. A February tradition that allows bracketologists near and far to compare their season’s worth of forecasting with what the selection committee has in mind.
It’s an opportunity to take pride in your work, having correctly aligned yourself with the correct criteria, or undergo an important learning experience if you’re off the mark. Either way, the preview offers a direct peek into the minds of the selection committee and provides a crystal clear blueprint for what résumé factors are important in evaluating tournament cases this season.
Well, in theory.
In practice, I think the average bracketologist’s thought process for the reveal went a little something like this:
“Alabama is #1 overall. Cool, that’s what I had, and it makes sense.”
“Oh, Houston is #2 overall? Not Kansas with 12 Quad 1 wins. I guess the metrics are going to matter more this year.”
“Wait… Arizona is ahead of UCLA then? I thought the metrics were going to be more important.”
“Kansas State is a 3 seed?? Even though their metrics and non-conference strength of schedule should put them closer to a 5??”
“What?! How is Indiana is the top 4 seed?!”
“WHERE IS UCONN??!!”
So, yeah… maybe not so crystal clear.
It does seem the selection committee was a bit inconsistent with its choices this time around. That’s OK—we’re all human, and you’re bound to have to some inconsistencies in your analysis and application process, especially when 12 different voices are contributing to the conversation.
Of course, it is a bit annoying from a bracketologist’s standpoint, as bracketology is an exact science: trying to predict the selection committee’s every move and motive to place teams to their proper seed.
Fortunately, Bubble Watch isn’t nearly as exact. Instead of grouping teams into 16 precise seed lines, we’re just grouping them into three big, mushy categories. Makes the whole ordeal a lot easier.
So, consider Bauer’s Bubble Watch the chiller, more verbose younger brother of the curt, tightly-wound Bauertology, if you please.
On with the actual analysis; this week’s at-large pool features 57 contenders, and they break down into our three placement categories like so:
- Locks: 23 teams
- Safe for now: 17 teams
- Bubble: 17 teams (for 6 available spots)
Only a week to go until conference tournament play officially begins! March is almost upon us, folks.
ACC
- Locks: Virginia, Miami
- Safe for now: Duke, NC State, Pittsburgh
- Bubble: North Carolina, Clemson
A weak ACC gets even weaker. In addition to the conference’s sole top-16 team looking extremely beatable last week in a pair of nail-biters against league bottom-feeders Louisville and Notre Dame (blech), the ACC loses two of its squads in the at-large mix: Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. The Demon Deacons failed to address their bitter metrics and Quad 1 deficiency in Coral Gables, while the Hokies incurred their fourth Q3/Q4 loss of the season at NET #208 Georgia Tech. (Not even Saturday’s Q2 win over Pitt can rescue that.) With those two departed and Clemson hanging on to the bubble by the slimmest margin imaginable, the ACC is looking like a six-bid league at the very maximum.
The one saving grace is Miami: winners of the last six, scoring an average of 87 points per game in that span, and, with just three games to go, a newly christened lock in Bauer’s Bubble Watch. The Hurricanes will have a lot of work to do in March to match last season’s magical run, but receiving a bid in the area of a 5 seed should make that task a bit easier.
Duke: Duke is a strange team. Sometimes the Blue Devils get their rears handed to them in the form a 22-point beatdown, and sometimes they go toe-to-toe with the conference frontrunner in a fight to the finish. (We saw this two weeks ago.) Sometimes they narrowly avoid a disastrous Q4 loss to the NET #194 team on their home floor, and sometimes they suffocate the life out of an opponent on the road in the form of a 22-point beatdown. (We saw this last week.) This variation is reflected in the Bracket Matrix, where Duke fluctuates anywhere from a 6 seed to a 10 seed, depending on the projection. No one seems to know what to the think of the Blue Devils; I don’t think the Blue Devils know what to think of the Blue Devils. I do think this team is pretty safely in, though.
NC State: It doesn’t get much sweeter for NC State than helping to secure its own status in the NCAA Tournament picture while also possibly dooming the hated Tar Heels to the NIT in one fell swoop. That’s a win the Wolfpack really needed to keep their slightly suspicious team sheet from the cold reaches of the bubble. The tepid metrics and continued lack of any truly striking wins may prevent this group from ever feeling complete postseason safety, but taking care of business at home this week (Wake Forest on Wednesday, Clemson on Saturday) would sure go a long way.
Pittsburgh: This selection committee’s apparent emphasis on quality wins away from home is great news for Pitt, a team that has played some of its best basketball in opposing gyms (7-3 on the road this season) with three such victories in Quad 1. Those results have always been the strong suit of this team sheet; it’s the pair of bad losses and subpar metrics that have the Panthers closer to the bubble than their fans would like. But if the trends from Saturday’s top 16 are indeed applicable to the rest of the bracket, then all Pitt needs to do is hold serve over the homestretch to clinch its first appearance in March Madness since 2016.
North Carolina: Deja vu, Tar Heels. For the second year in a row, North Carolina finds itself on Feb. 20 in dire straits—except the circumstances this time around are much worse. Last year’s UNC squad began its late-season ascent to the tournament on Feb. 19 with a win at Virginia Tech: what was then their first Quad 1 win of the season. This year’s Heels had that same opportunity on Sunday against NC State; they instead surrendered a late 12-1 run to the Wolfpack to lose 77-69 and fall to 0-8 in Q1 contests. Virginia on Feb. 25 and Duke on March 4 are all that remain in terms of quality opportunities. Godspeed.
Clemson: So Clemson doesn’t really have a tournament résumé anymore, but we need to dissect this case before we stick the fork in. The Tigers did the unthinkable on Saturday, losing by double digits to 3-23 Louisville (there must have been some magic in that shiny new ‘Final Coaches Poll #1’ banner) for their fourth defeat in the last five games. Clemson now sits 81st in NET and 83rd in KenPom, possesses the 20th-worst non-conference strength of schedule, and now carries three Quad 4 losses on its team sheet. That’s not a tournament résumé in any reality. A respectable 6-4 showing in Quads 1 and 2 is what keeps the Tigers hanging on by a thread, but a loss to Syracuse or NC State this week could provide the final cut.
BIG 12
- Locks: Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU
- Safe for now:
- Bubble: Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech
It’s been well-documented how historically strong this Big 12 conference is—now a full 3.65 points ahead of the second-place Big Ten in adjusted efficiency rating—and that seems to hold great importance in the eyes of the selection committee. Though Kansas appearing as the final 1 seed came as a bit of a surprise, the bigger takeaway is that Texas and Baylor weren’t far behind at #5 and #7 overall (about what bracketologists predicted), and both Iowa State and Kansas State made it up to the 3 line (better than what bracketologists predicted!). Even with the latter two struggling on the road and coming up short in the efficiency models compared to other top-line contenders, their gaudy Q1 totals and the overall strength of the conference they call home were too much to overlook.
That’s good news for our bubble teams down below, who can make up a lot of ground with wins (and not lose much ground with losses), and for TCU, the conference’s sixth lock, which appears to be very much back in business with Mike Miles back in the lineup—see Saturday’s 100-75 drubbing of Oklahoma State for proof.
Oklahoma State: Life in the Big 12 is tough. Even a team as red-hot as Oklahoma State can suffer a sudden change of fortune, as their four-game conference winning streak was brought to an abrupt halt this past week with a second-half squandering against Kansas and a potential upset at TCU that went off the rails about eight minutes in. Those results put the Cowboys in a more precarious standing than before, though the overall team sheet still looks pretty solid compared to the rest of the bubble crowd. Just gotta keep an eye on that overall record; 16-11 is not a great spot to be in when the schedule ahead is so daunting.
West Virginia: Let’s keep talking about those worrisome overall records. West Virginia already had a pretty shady total of 15-10 a week ago, but the Mountaineers at least had top-25 marks in KenPom and NET to account for it. Those numbers have since sagged out of safety range with last week’s 12-point loss at a Baylor and a surprising home defeat to Texas Tech. WVU is now 15-12, and that historically is not enough for a bid, even if the metrics may say otherwise. The Mountaineers will have four opportunities, three in Quad 1, to amend that blemish before the conference tournament. Time to perform like the team that the numbers say West Virginia is capable of being.
Texas Tech: Well, well, well—look who we have here. When I postulated last week that the Big 12 could potentially have nine at-large contenders in play, I assumed Oklahoma would be the ninth (their 13-14 total negates that possibility). Instead, it’s the Red Raiders of Texas Tech making a sudden late-season splash. An 0-8 start to the conference slate has quickly been erased to the tune of a 5-2 record since Jan. 28—a period in which the Red Raiders have notched all four of their Quad 1 wins. The muddy metrics, awful non-con SOS, and 4-12 record in Quads 1 and 2 indicate a team still on the outside, but they’ve made up a lot of ground alarmingly quickly.
BIG EAST
- Locks: Marquette, Xavier, UConn, Creighton
- Safe for now: Providence
- Bubble: Seton Hall
For as much love as the Big 12 got in Saturday’s top-16 preview, the Big East didn’t seem to get any. Many a bracketologist had Marquette and UConn slotted to the 3 line with Xavier not far behind. Instead, Marquette earned a middling 4, Xavier was the final team into the field, and UConn was left out entirely. Certainly strange for a trio of teams that, aside from the Musketeers’ mark in BPI, ranks top-25 in every measurement and even top-10 in some cases (how can the 6th-most efficient team in D1 not be a top-16 team?).
The good news for the Big East is that Creighton was mentioned in the same breath as the three locks above, listed as one of the committee’s four toughest exclusions (alongside the Huskies). The Bluejays’ nine wins in their last 10 games and upper-class metrics make it abundantly clear why. Forget about those mid-winter woes; Creighton is going dancing.
Providence: Tuesday’s win over Creighton provided a delicious little slice of the classic Providence madness that has been missing from this year’s group, as the Friars’ 94-86 double overtime triumph proved to be their ninth extra-time victory in the last 10 instances and 15th win at home this season with no such defeats. Luck o’ the Friars is alive and well! Importantly, that result tacks a Quad 1A victory onto a team sheet that needed some beef, and Saturday’s 13-point win over Villanova kept the course steady. Providence should be able to officially set sail for March very soon.
Seton Hall: Time is running out on Seton Hall. A promising 6-1 stretch in January is now a relic of the past with three defeats in the last four outings, the only positive result being a necessary home win over Georgetown that would otherwise demolish this résumé. The Pirates at least have the bare requisite wins (home UConn, at Rutgers, neutral Memphis) to remain on the very fringe of bubble territory, but those results aren’t going to hold if they can’t find a way to wipe up the rest of their regular-season slate: vs. Xavier, vs. Villanova, at Providence.
BIG TEN
- Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern
- Safe for now: Illinois, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
- Bubble: Wisconsin, Penn State
Middle America: the heart of college basketball country. Big Ten and Big 12 fans have been saying this for years! Of course, the Big Ten is expected to be one of the premier Division I conferences, and five-time national champion Indiana is expected to be one of the premier teams. The Hoosiers may have been a semi-surprising inclusion in Saturday’s top-16 reveal, but most forecasters didn’t have them far outside. Either way, they have the metrics and top-end wins of a team clearly headed to the postseason.
The bigger surprise comes 240 miles away in Evanston, Illinois, home of newly-minted lock Northwestern! The Wildcats just keep finding ways to win, in spite of what the metrics say. At home, on the road, against good teams, against bad teams—doesn’t matter. Wildcats are getting it done. NET rank #39 is unusually low for a second-week lock, but gosh darn it, they’ve won seven Quad 1 games (and all three of their contests in Quad 1A)! Northwestern is going dancing for the second time ever.
Illinois: Give credit to Northwestern for continually pulling out their away games, because winning on the road in the Big Ten is HARD. Just ask Illinois. The Fighting Illini had previously won three straight contests outside of Champaign, albeit against lesser conference competition (Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin) before running into a second-half surge from Indiana, an unbelievable shooting night from Penn State, and an Iowa team with perhaps a little extra motivation to play well in front of its own state’s Boys & Girls Club. (Heh.) But Illinois should still be fine—good predictive metrics, a top-30 NET, two enormous non-con wins that will carry this résumé to the finish line, so on and so forth.
Maryland: Speaking of difficulties winning on the road… Maryland’s OT loss at a suddenly saucy Nebraska on Sunday means the Terrapins have just one away win since Nov. 29. Not great, but not terrible either—remember, it’s really hard to win on the road in this conference! I just said that a paragraph ago! And Maryland’s tournament profile looks quite similar to Illinois’: same strong efficiency numbers and NET ranking, maybe lacking a little on the high-end victories (aside from Thursday’s home win over Purdue, great stuff), but makes up for it with better performance numbers. All A-OK for Maryland!
Iowa: There hasn’t been a team in the conference with more variance in their past two weeks of results than Iowa. Let’s recap the Hawkeyes’ last fortnight—14-point loss at Purdue, 12-point win at Minnesota, 17-point win vs. Ohio State, 20-point loss at Northwestern. Some consistency could go a long way, y’know. Either way, Iowa is just like the rest of this bunch of “safe for now” Big Ten teams, sporting a pretty good résumé with one or two categories looking really good (seven Q1 wins, 4-1 in Q2) and one or two categories looking not-so-good (semi-low NET, two Q3/Q4 losses), ultimately landing somewhere in 6-9 seed range. Run-of-the-mill stuff.
Michigan State: Let’s keep the mill cranking with another similar résumé! Michigan State is a mid-NET team that hasn’t played well on the road as of late, owns a good chunk of Quad 1 wins, and has a few questionable patches on the team sheet, theirs being an 0-7 record in Q1A and a bad loss to Notre Dame. Are you feeling it yet? Are you feeling the Big Ten grind? The Spartans are—who could have guessed—pretty safe for the moment, but could use a win over Indiana and/or Iowa this week to feel a little more secure. Get in line, pal.
Rutgers: Am I about to write essentially the same paragraph five times straight? That’s how little variance there is between this middle bunch of the Big Ten; I have them listed out as Illinois, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, but you can make a reasonable argument to shuffle them in any order. Rutgers is at least a little interesting in that the Scarlet Knights were hastily slipping away from lock territory and toward the bubble, but that has since been amended with a win at Wisconsin, literally one rank away from classifying as Quad 1. I bet the selection committee is going to be all peachy about having to fill the entire 7 and 8 lines with the Big Ten.
Wisconsin: Finally, Wisconsin provides something different to look at… though that “different” isn’t exactly a good thing. The résumé and efficiency rankings both agree that Wisconsin is a borderline at-large consideration at best; the actual results (which tend to matter more than what Ken Pomeroy and company say) beg to differ, with nine Q1/Q2 wins and four Q1 wins outside of Madison. The Badgers aren’t helping their case with this weird win-loss alternation pattern since the start of the month, and I don’t think it can continue if Wisconsin really wants to be in this thing. Break the trend with a 2-0 week against Iowa and Michigan, and now we’re talking.
Penn State: Now that’s more like it. Penn State, a borderline bubble inclusion last week, looks a lot closer to the field of 68 now, as Jalen Pickett did his best Michael Jordan impression to power the Nittany Lions to an explosive offensive victory over Illinois on Tuesday and a gritty-not-pretty win at Minnesota on Saturday: the Nits’ first outside of State College since Dec. 10. That little surge keeps Penn State well in the conversation, and a bounty of opportunities lie ahead: at Ohio State, vs. Rutgers, at Northwestern, vs. Maryland. All four are Quad 1, and all four are winnable. Would be a shame if Pickett never got to play in March Madness.
PAC-12
- Locks: Arizona, UCLA
- Safe for now:
- Bubble: USC, Arizona State
Pac-12? More like… Pac-2! (Please laugh at this completely original and hilarious joke.) The Pac-12 has been the butt of many a joke regarding the power conferences, and they aren’t doing themselves any favors this year. Sure, Arizona and UCLA are incredible, both viable contenders to win the whole darn thing… but who after that? Not Oregon, whose road trip up to Washington last week resulted in two L’s and dropped the Ducks to 15-13 overall, which is not an at-large-worthy record. Maybe they can squeeze back onto the page by winning out the regular season, but their remaining schedule consists of Oregon State, Cal, and Stanford; none of those move the needle very much.
Surely one of the two remaining choices out of the Pac-12 will be able to provide this conference a third invitee in March, right? Right?
USC: The Pac-12 is chock-full of good-not-great basketball—really only two or three schools qualify as “bad teams.” That sentiment doesn’t really translate to the quadrants though, so dropping a game at home to a decent team like Stanford, who is absolutely capable of pulling off that kind of stunt, would indeed be a bad loss. Fortunately for USC, that crisis was averted with an 85-75 win on Saturday to go with Thursday’s 97-60 demolition of Cal (who actually is a bad team). Those results at least keep the Trojans treading water amid a pretty ugly bubble, and this week’s road trip to the Rocky Mountains provides the opportunity to buff the Q1 portion of this résumé. But actually pulling off the sweep of those good-not-great teams in Colorado and Utah? That’s much easier said than done.
Arizona State: At least Arizona State doesn’t have a prohibitive record like Oregon to worry about, but the Sun Devils’ overall body of work may very well be in worse shape than the Ducks’. Like, a 70th-ranked NET with one win against an at-large team and no metric but SOR above 60th isn’t going to cut it—and don’t forget that November loss at Texas Southern that falls all the way into the bottom-right corner of the team sheet. The Sun Devils kept themselves on the fringe of consideration by topping Utah on Saturday, but their case was always going to come down to their three-game road stretch (Arizona, UCLA, USC) to end the season. Saturday’s rivalry game in Tucson could be the last we see of ASU.
SEC
- Locks: Alabama, Tennessee
- Safe for now: Arkansas, Auburn, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky
- Bubble: Mississippi State
If the Pac-12 is floundering, then the SEC is doing the opposite: sharpening itself at just the right time. It was only about a month ago that the SEC was considered a five-bid league, much like the ACC is projected to be today. In reality, the SEC is a lot closer to the Big 12 or Big Ten in terms of overall strength; the majority of bracketologists have all eight of this conference’s current at-large contenders inside the field of 68—not too shabby! (And I’ll be brave enough to say it: Vanderbilt isn’t too far outside the conversation, either.)
The SEC does like to beat itself up, however, so we’re still a week or two removed from adding any locks to Alabama and Tennessee. They’ll come in due time.
Arkansas: I’d put my money on Arkansas to be the first. Wednesday’s loss at Texas A&M is no big deal; the Aggies are playing some of the best basketball in the country. Saturday’s result over Florida—a 19-point triumph that included separate 14-2 and 21-2 runs—is more so what I expect this Razorbacks team to be. And they’ll be even more dangerous once Nick Smith (0-4 from deep against Florida) returns to pre-injury form. Every metric but SOR says this is a top 20 team; they’ve got four games left to prove it.
Auburn: Very up-and-down week for Auburn. First, the Tigers appeared to explode out of their recent funk on Tuesday with an absolute annihilation of Missouri—game was pretty much over at the opening whistle. Then Auburn slipped back into its losing ways, falling at the buzzer to Vanderbilt on Saturday. That’s not an unforgivable sin—as mentioned above, Vanderbilt is a much better team than it lets on. But you would have liked to see Auburn build some momentum after that Missouri beatdown, especially with Kentucky, Alabama, and Tennessee all still on the itinerary. Like, Auburn is probably fine, but that is a tough, tough schedule ahead, and they’ve done a lot more losing than winning lately. We’ll keep a close eye on this particular blurb of the Bubble Watch.
Missouri: There’s a reason the metrics have been unenthusiastic toward Missouri, and the Tigers showed why this week by failing to show up at Auburn and trailing for 95% of the contest at home against Texas A&M. Not the best way to impress the one part of your résumé that is severely lacking. Good news for Mizzou is that everything else is fine—solid performance metrics, no losses below Quad 1, and eight Q1/Q2 victories with two especially shiny ones (at Tennessee, vs. Iowa State). Just gotta polish off an easy remaining schedule—preferably with a blowout win or two in there—and the Tigers will be just fine.
Texas A&M: It’s no secret that Texas A&M has played like a top-15 college basketball team since 2023 began; its 12-2 record in a rugged SEC makes that very apparent. The concern here has always been how the Aggies fared in 2022. That was a different A&M team that lost to Murray State and Wofford, but those results count all the same. At the rate the Aggies are ascending though (now 28th in NET and top 30 in all five metrics following a 2-0 week), those early losses aren’t going to drag them down. The sky is the limit, and with both Tennessee and Alabama still ahead AND both games being held in College Station, where A&M is 13-1 this season, this profile could look like that of a top-6 seed in short order.
Kentucky: You’ve got to keep your eye on the ball with bracketology and Bubble Watch. It is a constantly evolving game from day to day. Kentucky is a pristine example; the Wildcats looked dangerously close to NIT territory following a loss at Georgia on Feb. 11. Ten days later, UK looks like an obvious tournament choice. What happened? Just a pair of Quad 1 wins in a four-day span, one of which gives the Wildcats a season sweep of top-3 seed Tennessee. No big deal. For as much grief as John Calipari has (maybe rightfully) gotten this season, the man has a knack for getting it right eventually.
Mississippi State: With Kentucky and Texas A&M suddenly rising above the crop, Mississippi State is left as the SEC’s only true bubble team. It looked like the Bulldogs were headed for a breakdown when trailing at Ole Miss late three days after letting Kentucky beat them in Starkville. But they clutched out the overtime winner, and they stay put somewhere in Last Four In territory because of it. Now, two golden opportunities present themselves (at Missouri Tuesday, Texas A&M Saturday) for Mississippi State to turn its pretty uninspiring team sheet into something worth lauding.
OTHERS
- Locks: Houston, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State
- Safe for now: Florida Atlantic, Nevada, Boise State
- Bubble: Memphis, New Mexico, Utah State, North Texas, Oral Roberts, Charleston
If your college-basketball watching is limited to the marquee matchups of the day among power conference foes, you’re doing yourself a disservice.
This year especially, there are a ton of fun mid-major teams playing extremely high-level basketball; Houston and Gonzaga have already been well-documented, but Saint Mary’s and San Diego State aren’t far behind. Both are as efficient as they come, proving night in and night out to be an absolute nightmare to score against, the Gaels’ strong suit being the interior and the Aztecs’ being the perimeter. With each of their remaining schedules not providing enough potential résumé damage to fret over, both are welcome to the warm embrace of lock-dom.
Florida Atlantic: Florida Atlantic’s loss to Middle Tennessee on Thursday isn’t as bad as you think. MTSU is actually a respectable foe, so much so that a loss on their home floor (which has been exceedingly common for any opponent in the past two seasons) lands gently in Quad 2—not too bad! The Owls also did themselves a huge favor turning a 15-point thrashing into an OK 4-point defeat to keep their metrics relatively intact. The same can’t be said if FAU were to suddenly drop back-to-back home games against NET #303 UTSA and NET #190 UTEP this week… then there would be reason to be alarmed. But that scenario—simply put—is not going to happen.
Nevada: Nevada could have felt some real safety by now if it had just hung on Saturday at Utah State—a game that the Wolf Pack led by 15 at halftime. Instead, Nevada self-destructed in the second half to lose by nine and miss out on what would have been its first Quad 1A win of the season. Certainly would have been nice to have that, no question, but the team sheet is still in a good spot regardless: 34th in NET, 17th in KPI, no bad losses, and a 9-7 record in Quads 1 and 2. That’s definitely bid-worthy. So long as the Wolf Pack take care of the remaining slate (they’re favored in each of their last four), they’ll be on their way to the big dance.
Boise State: It may have come at the expense of Broncos fans’ hearts, but Boise State did what needed to be done in order to feel some security. Just about every night in the Mountain West is going to provide a challenge, regardless of the opponent and location. So while clutching out tight victories at Colorado State and vs. UNLV may not add much bulk to the résumé, it’s an impressive feat given context. The Broncos’ record in Quad 1 (1-3) is really the only thing worth fussing about, and they’ll get two more chances to address that. Everything else looks to be in good shape.
Memphis: So Memphis may have missed its chance to net its first really weighty win of the year against Houston on Sunday, but think about it this way Tigers fans: Your team pushed the #2 overall résumé in the nation, on their own court, nonetheless, to the brink for much of the 40-minute contest without Kendric Davis (ankle) in the lineup. That bodes extremely well for a team that looked lost without the AAC’s leading scorer in the second half in a near-meltdown against UCF just three days prior. If the real Tigers are the team we saw Sunday (and Davis heals up quickly, of course), there’s no reason to think they can’t get the run-back game in Memphis on March 5. Just have to bide your time on the bubble until then.
New Mexico: New Mexico needed that. After Tuesday’s sputtering home defeat to Wyoming, the Lobos’ fifth in a six-game span, it looked like the bottom had completely fallen out; their NET dropped to 55th (UNM’s lowest mark this year), and the metrics appeared to be irreconcilable. Then the Lobos saved their season to the tune of a 28-point victory at San Jose State in what every analyst and their mother labeled as a trap game—good enough for a staggering 16-point leap in KenPom and a return to the NET top 50, keeping New Mexico around the cut line in spite of their four unsightly Q3/Q4 defeats. Will that same New Mexico show up against Boise State and San Diego State this week? Or will the early February Lobos rear their ugly head again? The suspense is terrible…
Utah State: The five-bid MWC dream lives another week, and Nevada’s implosion in Logan on Saturday is responsible. Unfortunately for Utah State, the Wolf Pack no longer rank in the NET top 30, so that first Quad 1 win of the year remains elusive. And unless UNLV suddenly jumps 10 spots in NET between now and the start of the conference tournament, the Aggies’ March 5 contest with visiting Boise State will be their one and only chance of the regular season to tally a victory in that leftmost column. Take care of business beforehand and come out of that Boise game with the dub, and then we’ve got a discussion going.
North Texas: Welcome to the Watch, North Texas! The Mean Green had long been in the bubble periphery, likely in the range of an NIT 4 or 5 seed, but never had enough meat on the résumé to earn a proper at-large look. It’s a different story now, as A) the Mean Green have won eight straight to rise to 46th in NET and 53rd in KenPom, and B) the rest of the bubble stinks. Ultimately, it’s hard to make a case for tournament inclusion at the moment, as a win at UAB on Jan. 21 registers as UNT’s only in Quad 1. But if the boys from Denton can reach the regular season finish line unscathed, they’ll be 24-5 with a NET and three of five metrics in the top 50 to go with a 4-3 record in the two uppermost quadrants. Two-bid C-USA could happen, y’all.
Oral Roberts: Not much to add to Oral Roberts’ at-large case from what was already stated last week; if the Golden Eagles can make it to the Summit League title game with their perfect conference record intact, they’ll be in automatically with a win or in the at-large discussion with a loss. I wouldn’t bet on the latter scenario ending in ORU’s favor, but I also wouldn’t bet on them losing; Thursday’s scare against North Dakota was the closest Max Abmas and friends got to slipping up, and they still got the job done. Just punch that automatic bid so we can see some poor 5 seed go belly-up on the first day of the tournament.
Charleston: I’d also bet on Charleston to pull the first-round upset should the Cougars get the opportunity, as they’ve looked like the CAA’s dominant force once again with five-straight double-digit victories after that frightening two-game skid. Of course, that same late-season lapse could be enough to do the Cougars in should they fail to obtain the conference auto-bid—at least that’s what the team sheet would lead you to believe. Best not to tempt fate; just get the job done, guys.
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