Think like the committee. Think like the committee.
That’s something kept telling myself as I worked on putting together my first post-top-16-preview bracket.
If you’re like me, it’s very easy to get bogged down in the numbers. So-and-so has a higher mark in these metrics, look at how they compare in Quad 1 win totals, this strength of schedule is much stronger than this, et cetera, et cetera.
The reality is that the selection committee is a group of 12 different individuals with 12 different schools of thoughts. So when it comes to making choices in comparing résumés and putting the bracket together, the end results may not appear as simple and as logical as, “well, this team’s numbers are better.”
For definitive evidence, look at Kansas appearing as the #4 overall seed despite 12 Quad 1 wins, as well as Indiana appearing in the top 16 and UConn being absent despite the Huskies’ overall body of work appearing to be much better. These are things that a pure analytical standpoint would tell you are major misses from reality. But it is reality, because the seeds are decided by humans, not a computer.
Trying to implement that line of thought into my bracketology is tricky because I’m just not wired that way, and at the end of the day I caved to the numbers in a couple spots (there’s no way Kansas can be worse than #2 overall with their now 14 Quad 1 victories).
But I do think this bracket is a little more in line with the standpoints and takeaways that I and other bracketologists got from the selection committee’s sneak peek on Saturday. It may look radically different from some of my previous brackets in some parts, and it may look very similar in others. So ask your questions if you have ’em, and enjoy today’s projection.
THE BRACKET
THE TRUE SEED LIST, BUBBLE, AND BIDS BY CONFERENCE
NC State not only as a 10, but the lowest 10 is a joke 😂