Bauertology: 1/30/24

When was the last time that bracketologists felt this confident about the 1-seeds at this stage in the season?

Not just confidence in who the 1-seeds are, but confidence that the 1-seeds are all incredible basketball teams, a cut above the rest of the field, all quite easy to picture as the sole survivor cutting down the nets in Phoenix a little over two months from now.

That’s where we sit with Purdue, Houston, UConn, and North Carolina—I’ve got them in that order, but you could maybe jostle them around a little bit. Regardless, those are the four that you’re going to see on the top line in projections over and over again, and the results from this past weekend are proof of concept.

The Boilermakers easily have the top team sheet in the land, #1 in both résumé metrics and #2 in both predictive metrics to go with an unblemished 5-0 record against Quad 1A opponents, all but one of which were on a neutral court. And yet, Sunday’s 8-point win at the RAC, a place that has been a house of horrors for Purdue in recent memory, may be the most confidence-inspiring result yet. It’s going to take a herculean effort for anyone to catch the Boilermakers for #1 overall.

The real discussion starts at #2 with Houston and UConn. Even before Monday’s conclusion in Austin, I was leaning the former, and I’ll surely be staying that way after the Cougars pulled out their second-straight conference road win in the toughest conference in America to win on the road. That’s the seventh victory to land in Quad 1 for Houston, settling in nicely with the Cougars’ cream-of-the-crop quality numbers (#1 in both BPI and KenPom) and results numbers not far behind (#4 in KPI, #2 in SOR).

Even then, your eyes may tell you that UConn is the superior group. For as good as the Huskies were even without Donovan Clingan (they went 5-0 in the stretch that he was hurt), they look as dominant as the team last March that won each of its tournament games by 10+ en route to the title, if not more dominant, with Clingan back on the floor. Sunday’s 43-point destruction of Xavier, a game that KenPom only had the Huskies winning by 9, solidifies that idea. It was also enough for UConn to crack the KenPom top 3, alongside a 7-2 Q1 record and top-6 metrics across the board.

North Carolina may be in a comfortable fourth place for now, but there’s nothing cozy about actually playing the Tar Heels. Saturday’s trip to Tallahassee marked a surprisingly daunting challenge with Florida State playing as well as any ACC team as of late, winning six of their previous seven. But the Heels never panicked, trailing by as large as eight in the early second half before a 13-2 run propelled them to a lead they would never concede. That keeps UNC a perfect 9-0 in conference, but more importantly, it keeps the Heels 5-0 in Quad 1/2 road contests, alongside performance metrics that both land inside the top 4.

And that’s where the four Goliaths of 2023-24 college hoops stand. The only team that seems to be making any threat toward questioning that top line right now is Tennessee, but that’s an uphill climb for the Volunteers given their head-to-head losses to both Purdue and North Carolina and their currently sub-.500 record against Quad 1 (3-4).

Fellow bracketologist Graham Doeren said that this is the most confident he’s felt in the 1-seeds since 2008, the only year that all four 1-seeds ended up advancing to the Final Four. I’m inclined to agree.

Well, if the 1-seeds are this crystal clear, that should make the rest of the bracket a breeze, right?

Oh, if only it were that easy.

Yep, teams 5-68 are a mess. Just look at a team like Ole Miss, which possesses a résumé the likes of which we have never seen before this deep into the season. The Rebels are elite in the eyes of the performance metrics, placing 13th in KPI and 10th in SOR, while the predictives remain unamused, falling all the way to 63rd in KenPom and 69th in BPI. Pair those confusing numbers with a 17-3 overall record (amazing), 4-3 record against Quads 1 and 2 (OK) and 326th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule (disgusting), and you have a team sheet that absolutely no one knows what to do with.

Some have the Rebs as high as a 6-seed, others don’t have them in the field at all. I settle somewhere in the middle in this projection at a 9-seed; that’s kind of my way of saying, “I give up. I have no idea where this team is supposed to be.”

Thankfully, they’re not all that confusing, but even as early as the 3-seed line, you’re having doubts about whether or not all these teams are in the correct spots.

We only hope that the remaining season, of which there is still a month and a half to go, can clear up some of this absurdity.

Until then, we keep chugging along with our best guesses! So, enjoy the Bauertology projection for Tuesday, Jan. 30, and don’t scratch your head too much at any of the choices I’ve made. (Unless I made Gonzaga a 1-seed. But I don’t remember doing that.)