Sometimes, all it takes is one win to change a season.
Look no further than the Florida Gators, who, after having spent just about the entire month of January outside the bracket with their grand Quad 1 win total of zero, now rocket all the way up to a 9-seed in today’s projection.
That’s the consequence of tallying their first exceptional quality victory of 2023-24 on Wednesday night, and one of the highest order: a true road win in Lexington, one is that bound to stay in Quad 1 (and likely Quad 1A) the remainder of the season.
That’s just what I mean when I talk about “transformative” victories. Just one such result can transform an entire team sheet from one that looks good in areas but has major holes in others, into one that the selection committee could not refuse.
And Florida is the ideal example. I had the Gators sitting in First Four Out for quite some time, as their metrics for the past few weeks were just waiting for the green light: numbers on both the results and quality side positioned in the 20s and 30s. That typically results in entrance to the field… unless you’re 0-6 in Quad 1 with a 12-point win at NET #131 Missouri serving as your best result as a visiting team.
But now that the Gators have patched both of those issues in one fell swoop, you wouldn’t be able to leave them out.
That’s where I sit with a number of teams hovering along the bubble, perhaps most notably with Colorado, another team that’s been stuck in First Four Out purgatory for quite some time. Just like with Florida before, the Buffaloes have the computer numbers for a bid: 31st in the NET to go with a 45 résumé average and 38.5 predictive average. But in terms of the actual wins themselves? They’ve got one at Washington, just barely clinging to Q1 (their only such), and… then what? A decent collection in Quad 2, but only one over a team currently in my projected field (Washington State), and that was in Boulder anyway. I don’t see that single result impressing the committee very much.
Speaking of those Cougars, I have them in ahead of Colorado despite the fact that they trail the Buffs in all the metrics—KenPom, BPI, KPI, SOR, you name it. But Wazzu’s got a bona fide powerhouse victory right at the top of the team sheet over 1-seed contender Arizona on Jan. 13 (Not to mention another extremely underrated Q1 victory against Boise State on a neutral floor from Dec. 21). It’s a transformative victory like that that makes all the difference when it comes to splitting these hairs along the bubble.
What the computers say are important, but the results have to matter, too; Gonzaga is perhaps the best example of that. Today is the closest I’ve had the Bulldogs to the field since Jan. 12, ranking as my ninth team out: one spot shy of making the graphic below. Their case is well-documented; the predictives say the Zags are a no-brainer: 19th in both BPI and KenPom, and 26th in the NET. But what can they point to results-wise that agrees with the former? They’re 0-4 in Quad 1. Neither of their Quad 2 wins (San Francisco at home, Syracuse on a neutral floor) will turn heads. They need a transformative victory, and Saturday’s contest in Spokane against Saint Mary’s (21st in NET… that’s Quad 1!) looms extremely large.
That’s where we sit with the bracket entering Friday morning. And maybe, just maybe, the upcoming results from this weekend won’t make today’s analysis look nearly as foolish as when I wrote a whole big thing earlier this week about how the current 1-seeds looked untouchable, including North Carolina… and then the Tar Heels proceeded to lose their first game since Dec. 16 at Georgia Tech hours later. Sigh. At least Tennessee and Wisconsin pitched in with their respective home-court and blown-lead losses to stay out of 1-seed contention. Much appreciated.
Well, before an absolutely loaded slate of Saturday hoops turns today’s projection into a pile of smoldering ash, enjoy the Bauertology for Friday, Feb. 2 while you can.
