It was just a month ago that the Bauer’s Bubble Watch column reopened for business in 2024. Now, with less than week to go until Selection Sunday, the final full edition of BBW is upon us. The days just move too quickly!
In five short days, the NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed, thus commencing the greatest spectacle of our time, March Madness. These days will fly by, too, but not without being jam-packed full of some of the best college basketball action we’ll see all season.
Major conference tournament play is underway as of today, and bubble teams are now presented with their final chance to make a case to the selection committee for why their résumé should be chosen over others. No pressure!
We’ll also be on the watch for bid thieves: teams that would not otherwise be selected for an at-large who in turn steal a bid from the bubble by virtue of winning their conference tournament away from a team that would be in line for an at-large. Think AAC and A10 for this one; Dayton and Florida Atlantic will be dancing no matter what. The question is whether or not someone else from their respective conferences will join them. (Of course, both the AAC and A10 championship games are on Sunday. Only the most excruciating of excruciating waits for our bubble!)
We’ve also got a handful of mid-major conference tournaments to check out in our Others section, including those that have already wrapped up. With everything accounted for, here’s where the watch stands today:
- Lock: 36 teams
- Safe: 4 teams
- Bubble: 17 teams (for 6 available spots)
One more full-time go-around for Bauer’s Bubble Watch in 2024. (And likely one more quick ‘un this weekend before the big reveal—but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.) Let’s ride.
ACC
For the second straight year, we live in a world where it’s not just possible but likely that a team with a double bye in the ACC tourney gets left out of March Madness completely—an unfathomable thought mere years ago! But these are different times; 12 wins in ACC play is no longer a postseason guarantee. Please tell the Louisvilles and Notre Dames of the world to become respectable programs again, thank you very much!
Elsewhere, Syracuse’s short-lived stay on Bauer’s Bubble Watch comes to an end with the Orange falling flat in Tuesday’s must-win contest at Clemson. I get that the résumé metrics are still rather respectable-looking, but… their overall scoring margin this season is -9, y’all. And they have a team sheet metric (BPI) pushing triple digits. It’s not happening. Not without a win over Duke on Thursday, at least.
- Lock: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
- Safe:
- Bubble: Virginia, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
Virginia: For as horrendous as Virginia has looked from time to time, I’d put my money on the Cavaliers as the ACC’s most likely shot at a fourth NCAAT bid. Saturday’s 72-57 home win over Georgia Tech was a much-needed reprieve from the platter of stinkers that UVA had been wheeling out lately—the kind of win that you can build on in the final stretch, knowing that you are physically capable of putting out a product that resembles basketball (occasionally). And chances are that they’ll pair up with Clemson in the ACC tournament anyway, a team that the Hoos have already beaten this year in their own gymnasium. It’s a very straightforward path to the promised land! Win that game and you’re in; heck, even a close loss probably puts Virginia on the right side of the bubble. Just don’t get blown out! Don’t even think about it! All nine of your losses this year have come by double digits; don’t force the selection committee to second guess your inclusion by making it a tenth!
Pittsburgh: We’re at a crossroads. Pittsburgh has always been a soft bubble inclusion at best, one for which I’ve routinely thought, “Sure, let’s throw them a bone and hear them out. What’s the worst that can happen?” Well, with the Panthers doing what they needed to last week while other bubble teams shot themselves in the foot, their at-large case is looking as spiffy as it ever has. I mean, a 50.0 résumé average? A 39.5 predictive average? A 7-4 record on the road with wins at Duke and Virginia? You make such a tempting case, Pitt! But here’s the crossroads part of it—no matter how good everything else may look, would the selection committee really take a team that played the 21st-worst non-conference schedule in the country? A team that played precisely one non-Quad 3/4 game outside of the ACC and got blown out in it, then subsequently lost to now-winless-in-SEC-play Missouri at home? It’s such a brutal clash of good and bad that you don’t really know what to do. Gut feeling says there’s still work to be done; a win over Wake in the ACC quarterfinals would be enormous.
Wake Forest: You know it’s gotten tricky in Deaconville when Pitt has leapfrogged Wake Forest in the ACC bubble pecking order. The Demon Deacons’ win over Clemson last weekend at least puts an end to the recent bleeding with a highly necessary Quad 1 victory, though with that result coming at home (Wake’s best win away from The Joel is still NET #96 Boston College), it’s not nearly enough to put the Deacs back into the projected field. Indeed; they hit the road to D.C. needing to make a splash. A second-round win over the winner of Notre Dame-Georgia Tech won’t offer that; a quarterfinals victory over Pitt is a lot more promising. But even then, Pitt is outside the bracket in most projections. Wake may need to pull the big one and nab North Carolina in the conference semifinals. With the Deacs’ gaudy predictive profile, that would almost certainly be enough to do the job. But considering their struggles against top-end talent anywhere but Winston-Salem, I wouldn’t bank on it becoming reality.
BIG 12
Time for some much-needed housekeeping; Texas Tech and Texas are locks. The Big 12 blurb of Bauer’s Bubble Watch has often gotten pretty unwieldy to write with so many darn teams in the at-large conversation. Thankfully, the Red Raiders and Longhorns have taken care of this problem with the former closing the regular season strong via double-digit wins at Oklahoma State and vs. Baylor, and the latter establishing a no-nonsense victory over Oklahoma in Austin last Saturday. Metrics look good, quadrants look solid, NCSOS remains disgusting (to be expected in this year’s Big 12) but not disgusting enough to ruin the rest of it. Time to lock ’em both—and finally reduce the word count in this section of the page. Phew.
- Lock: Houston, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, BYU, Texas Tech, Texas
- Safe: Oklahoma, TCU
- Bubble: Kansas State
Oklahoma: Gonna say it again—Javian McCollum’s buzzer beater in Stillwater: saving the Sooners! Packing your bags for Kansas City with that game and last Tuesday’s overtime escape against Cincinnati as your only positive results in the past month of play isn’t exactly reason to feel inspired about Oklahoma, though I think their overall body of work is still strong enough to stay above the bubble for now. They’ve got nine Q1/Q2 wins to their name with every metric but KPI at or south of 40, no losses beyond the top-most quadrant, and a handful of non-conference wins over Iowa, USC, and Providence that may not look amazing in a vacuum but are downright gold nuggets when you consider the dearth of non-con quality across the rest of the Big 12. Win or lose in their opening-round tournament game against TCU, I think the Sooners are probably fine… Probably.
TCU: The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, could be a little less fine with a defeat to open Big 12 tourney play. While TCU’s team sheet looks almost identical to Oklahoma’s at first glance, there are a couple areas here where you hold your breath—namely the résumé average of 47.5 being ten spots worse and that horrendous 322nd-ranked non-conference SOS, in which the Horned Frogs failed to win a game better than NET #125 Arizona State. At current moment, I still like their chances of dancing with handy-dandy wins over Houston and Baylor in the back pocket and zero defeats outside the NET top 65 (thank you, refs vs. Georgetown), but it’s not a spot where you want to test the waters. Just beat the Sooners in KC on Wednesday, and we won’t have to fret.
Kansas State: Pop, re-inflate, pop, re-inflate, rinse, repeat. You’re making this tough on me, Kansas State! After weeks of debating whether or not the Wildcats deserve a spot in the bubble talk, I’ve decided to see it through with them following Saturday’s win over Iowa State (likely KSU’s best of the year). But there’s still a ton of work for Jerome Tang and company to do in Kansas City this week in order to get a good look from the selection committee—raising those metric averages (57.5 résumé, 63.0 quality) is imperative, as is addressing a lackluster 8-13 Quad 1/2 record and atrocious 3-10 mark in non-Bramlage contests. With the Big 12 being the beef factory that it is, the Cats will get their chances and more, as NET top-30 opportunities against Texas and Iowa State are there and ripe for the picking. Have to capitalize immediately, or it’s midnight in Manhattan.
BIG EAST
No conference is more perfectly set up for bubble drama this week than the Big East. First, we get a little taste of the madness in the first-round games with Providence vs. Ed Cooley, Part Three. Then, assuming higher seeds win on Wednesday, we get to see all of Villanova, Providence, and Butler fight for their lives in must-win games against the conference’s elite, alongside the bubbliest of all bubbly contests between Seton Hall and St. John’s, to headline Thursday’s loaded lineup. What did we do to deserve such a treat?
- Lock: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
- Safe:
- Bubble: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Villanova, Providence
Seton Hall: I’m designating Seton Hall “safe” in all but name. I don’t think I can quite jump the Pirates a category yet with the state of their team sheet—hard to feel completely convinced that SHU would hear its name called right now with the #62 NET, 47.0 résumé average, 60.0 predictive average, and 11-11 record against Quads 1 through 3—but it just seems like such an obvious case of a team that has done enough to supersede what the numbers say about them. They’re the only one in this group to actually land a blow on UConn. They have at least one victory against every single other Big East bubble battler, including a sweep of St. John’s. They aren’t completely horrific on the road, with three of their five such victories landing in Quad 1. It looks like a tournament profile once you take a deeper dive, and I think it stays that way, even with a loss to the Johnnies on Thursday (though just barely). Win that game, and I’d feel pretty close to certain that the Pirates will be dancing.
St. John’s: Thursday’s NYC-area rivalry clash could make or break the season for Seton Hall; it almost certainly will for St. John’s. Though the Red Storm are in a much prettier spot efficiency-wise (a number that becomes a bit more menial near the bubble), that would be just about the only reason to take SJU of the two if only one Big East bubbler could dance. SHU has the superior résumé metrics, a better collection of top-tier victories, and the all-important regular season sweep of the Johnnies. But that sweep becomes a little less prestigious if Rick Pitino and company can get their revenge in act three. And you almost feel that they have to; the Red Storm’s current results metrics average of 56.5 would be among the all-time lowest for an at-large selection—not a number you want the committee pondering over while you have a single victory over a current tournament team (home vs. Creighton) on your ledger. So, yeah. This could be the season right here.
Villanova: It’s getting mighty difficult to envision a world where Villanova gets picked for the Madness without a deep Big East tournament run. The Wildcats’ sudden late-season jolt of life came to a halt last week with back-to-back losses to Seton Hall and Creighton (the latter at the buzzer), putting Nova at 17-14 overall with those three Quad 3 losses to Big Five rivals still hanging around. Barring the wackiness of 2021, only one team in recent history has made the tournament as an at-large with a record of three games above .500 (2022 Michigan, and that team had its COVID issues too), meaning a first-round win over DePaul and subsequent loss to Marquette in the quarterfinals would be highly unlikely to get the job done. That, and the fact that the Wildcats’ résumé numbers are even worse than St. John’s, which, as I just touched on in the last paragraph, is no bueno. Work to do of the highest order.
Providence: And Providence has even more work to do that it hardly feels worth touching on! But I’ll do it anyway. The Friars are in dire straits, now 9-12 in non-Quad 4 contests with efficiency metrics as poor as Seton Hall and results metrics as poor as Villanova and St. John’s. Heck, I think Providence’s profile is starting to look a lot like Butler’s, and that’s a team that we put the pin in well over a week ago. Needless to say—not good! A lengthy BET run is the only means of survival—gotta beat Georgetown on day one just to stay alive, gotta beat Creighton on day two to have an outside shot, and gotta beat (most likely) Marquette on day three to really re-enter the brunt of the conversation. At that point, Providence would probably just be best off winning the whole darn thing. As this column has noted many a time, the Friars are notorious for pulling ridiculous late-season stunts. Can they pull the most ridiculous one yet?
BIG TEN
It’s always a satisfying feeling when you’re finally able to add a long-tormented program to the Bubble Watch lock list, as we saw in an earlier edition with Washington State. And it’s in this category that the Big Ten delivers a two-for-one special this week: Welcome to March, Nebraska and Northwestern! For the Cornhuskers, it’s their first bid since 2014 and second since 1998, with all worries alleviated as Sunday’s win in Ann Arbor handed Nebraska its third road victory of the season to go alongside metrics too good to exclude. For the Wildcats, it’s their first back-to-back set of NCAA Tournament appearances ever, as Northwestern overcame a sudden slew of injuries to turn Saturday’s potential trap game against Minnesota into a non-contest.
How about that? Nebraska and Northwestern, both in March Madness. In the same season! This certainly ain’t your grandpa’s Big Ten.
- Lock: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern
- Safe: Michigan State
- Bubble: Iowa, Ohio State
Michigan State: Oh, boy. Another week of having to figure out just what the hell to do with Michigan State. (Sigh.) While the general populace may be clamoring to kick the Spartans out of the bracket with their season-ending loss at Indiana, it’s important to remember that the results of last week were ultimately a net positive with a win over tournament-bound Northwestern on senior day—enough to move MSU from the high bubble into low “safe” territory for me. People aren’t going to like it, given the gap in perception between the Spartans’ capabilities (as KenPom, NET, and other predictive numbers have dutifully noted all season) and actual on-court production that has existed all season long. But the truth of the matter is that they’ve done enough. No, an 8-13 record against Q1/2 with a results average of 45.0 is not anything to write home about. But the fact that they’ve compiled it all against the 18th toughest schedule in the nation without dropping a single contest anywhere close to Q3 or worse will give them the benefit of the doubt, especially when the efficiency numbers remain as elite as they are. I’d still like to see them beat Minnesota on Thursday to feel sure about the whole thing, but I just don’t see Sparty missing the dance, as much as people might want it.
Iowa: Well, shoot. All that excitement for a late-season bubble push, only to trip at the finish line against Illinois for the second time in two weeks. The Hawkeyes have put up a valiant effort to raise their once-desolate postseason spirits, netting all three of their Quad 1 wins in the span of a month to get right into the thick of things. And though Sunday’s loss to the Illini tempers the tourney hopes for now, I’m not quite ready to call it quits on Iowa; we’ve still got the basis for doable numbers here (8-11 in Q1/2, #52 SOR and KenPom), so long as the Hawkeyes can spruce them up into a more shapely form over the next few days of Big Ten Tournament play. A bout with red-hot Ohio State and an ensuing third chance at Illinois (should Iowa come out victorious on Thursday) is a great place to start. Go 2-0, and we’re back in business once again.
Ohio State: OK, so at 5-11 in Quad 1/2, I don’t really think that Ohio State is a genuine bubble threat at this point in time. But I’d be extremely remiss if I passed on the opportunity to talk just once about what these Buckeyes have done as of late. This was a team that had an at-large percentage bordering on 0.0 a month ago, as Ohio State lost its sixth in the last seven tries, a stretch of mire that ultimately resulted in kicking head coach Chris Holtmann to the curb. So, what have the Buckeyes done since? Oh, you know—just go 5-1 with wins over Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan State, winning not just one but two road contests for the first time since New Year’s Day 2023. The typical stuff. (It’s that easy, everyone! Just fire your coach and success will immediately follow!) As I said before, a 5-11 record against quality opponents is a non-starter for the Buckeyes’ at-large case, but with metrics now in consideration range (53.0 résumé average, 46.5 efficiency average) as a result of this hot streak, there’s reason to keep an eye on OSU as BTT play commences. Consider Thursday’s meeting with Iowa an elimination game.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Our #6BidMWC dream is officially two-thirds complete! The Watch welcomes Nevada and Boise State to lock status with open arms, the former cementing its spot with last Tuesday night’s victory in the latter’s gym, and the latter following suit by becoming the first team to win in Viejas Arena in well over a calendar year. (With some additional style points for this shot in overtime from Max Rice. Save it for the tournament, please!)
Two more bids to go—one that I’m feeling great about, and the other not so much.
- Lock: San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State
- Safe: Colorado State
- Bubble: New Mexico
Colorado State: Colorado State is about as close as you can get to a lock without actually being one. This decision is all about an abundance of caution, as I don’t really foresee a future where a team that’s 9-8 in Quad 1/2 with a 21-point neutral-court win over Creighton gets left out. But let’s wait until the Rams complete their Quad 4 contest against San Jose State in the opening round of the Mountain West tourney on Wednesday night. After all, a defeat there would be a pretty nasty thing to add right at the end of the season to a team sheet that measures just a 42.0 across the results metrics, lacks a true road win higher than Quad 3, and has just one worthwhile victory in the last month of play (vs. Utah State on Feb. 17). Take care of that one hurdle, then we’ll call Colorado State good to go.
New Mexico: As has been the case for a while now, #6BidMWC relies strictly on the Lobos. New Mexico did what was required to stay right in the heart of the conversation, i.e. flattening Fresno State at home and giving Utah State hell on the road, though UNM is cursing itself for not being able to close out that latter contest—a result that would have been sure to put them on the right side of the cut line. But no time to dwell on the past; New Mexico has a job to do in Vegas this week. First order of business: take care of the team that put them in this precarious position in the first place (Air Force). That much is an absolute must. Then it’s act three against a Boise State team that swept UNM in the regular season. Probably want to plan on winning that one, too.
PAC-12
This week in the Pac-12: the picture perfect example of what and what not to do when your season is on the line, presented by Colorado and Utah!
- Lock: Arizona, Washington State
- Safe:
- Bubble: Colorado, Utah
Colorado: Spoiler alert—this is the one that did what you want to do. Though Colorado has been sporting a good metric profile basically all season, two key detriments have been hindering their at-large case: their lack of victories against tournament-level competition, and their putrid record in road contests. And while a Beaver State sweep doesn’t fix the first issue, it does alleviate the second from an unsightly 2-7 to a much more palatable 4-7. It also supports the theory that the metrics have been propagating this whole time, that being that the Buffs are actually a pretty darn good team—one capable of competing against postseason-caliber teams, even if the results in their chances to prove it have been underwhelming. That’s the theory, anyway. Might want to give it some more evidence by doing good work in the Pac-12 tournament.
Utah: I think it’s generous even keeping Utah on the page at this point. While the Buffaloes got to saving their season by adding the Q1 road over Oregon and avoiding the Q3 road loss to Oregon State, the Utes did just the inverse, stumbling in both contests to fall to an unholy 4-11 in games played outside of Salt Lake City, with results and predictive numbers (63.0, 54.0, respectively) now firmly entrenched in NIT territory. It’s a shame that a season that begin with such promise has been spoiled to these dire circumstances, but the only path ahead is clear: beat Arizona State in the Pac-12 tourney’s opening round, beat Colorado in round two, and beat (assumedly) Washington State in the conference semis. Anything less is unlikely to cut it.
SEC
Well, just as I speculated last week, at Vanderbilt was a Quad 3 landmine just waiting to blow up, and Florida was the unfortunate victim—a loss that would quickly mar any at-large résumé into worrisome waters, the Gators included… had Todd Golden’s squad not also dumped 100 on NET #8 Alabama earlier in the week. They, of course, did, so the whole Vandy issue becomes moot. Florida is a lock.
Oh, and bye-bye, Ole Miss. Now 90th in the NET and 2-8 since February began with those two wins coming by six points or fewer to 0-18 Missouri, there’s no reason to watch the Rebels anymore, even if the résumé metrics are still in OK territory. They’re just not enough to overcome everything else about this profile that clearly indicates a non-tournament team! Sorry.
- Lock: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Florida
- Safe:
- Bubble: Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Mississippi State: It’s starting to get a bit sweaty in Starkville. I, like most, assumed that Mississippi State was well on its way to a tournament invite, somewhere in the range of an unassuming yet comfortable 8 or 9 seed, after the Bulldogs had reeled off five straight wins across mid-February against some of the SEC’s lesser opponents. But things have not gone so swimmingly against tougher competition over this last two-week stretch, with MSU falling in all four of their contests against fellow at-large hopefuls. It’s starting to get pretty dicey, as the team sheet metrics have soured from the respectable 30s to the bubbly 40s, behind a 2-8 road record, a 6-11 outing against Quad 1/2 opponents, and a non-conference strength of schedule in the 220s. I still think the Bulldogs would have to be in for now with their high-end home wins over Tennessee and Auburn, plus that oddly elite record in neutral-court contests (6-0). But if this losing streak extends to five against LSU in the SEC tourney? All that goodwill could be for naught.
Texas A&M: And just like that, Texas A&M is back. Are we really about to relive the same late-season antics we went through in 2022? Aggies fans remember well the NCAA Tournament bid that they didn’t receive that year as a consequence of compiling their best two wins of the season while the selection committee was wrapping up discussions. The good news for 2024 is that they’re back on the at-large radar with room to spare, as a trio of convincing Quad 2 wins over the final two weeks of the regular season has A&M alive once again before the committee has even convened. The bad news is that there’s still a lot to dislike about their profile—namely the 2-4 record in Quad 3 and metrics that have only just re-entered reasonable territory. Remember: Rutgers was left out with a similar looking team sheet a year ago: one that had a weightier top win (at Purdue) but also a far worse non-con SOS. So, where does that put the Aggies? Either just inside or just outside the tournament field. Huge week ahead, to say the least.
OTHERS
Saint Mary’s and Florida Atlantic close out our new collection of at-large locks in the final full Bauer’s Bubble Watch of 2024. I was initially hesitant to give the Gaels total safety with their résumé metric average (now 49.5) looming dangerously close to bubble territory. But with all potential bad losses in the WCC tourney avoided, we can put the checkmark on this bad boy. A team that ranks top 25 in NET and KenPom with a 7-5 mark in Q1/Q2 and a pristine 9-0 record on the road is not missing the tournament, regardless of the result in Tuesday night’s title tilt with Gonzaga.
Ditto for the Owls, a team that flirted with disaster in just about every waking moment of AAC play. But with a pair of fresh Quad 2 victories over North Texas and Memphis to end the regular season now in hand, raising their Q1/2 record to an impressive 10-5 in the process, FAU’s follow-up act to last year’s heroics finally receives the official Bauer’s Bubble Watch stamp of approval.
That said, the BBW lock status only offers virtual certainty. It’s no comparison to winning your conference tournament, which offers absolute certainty. This is always the preferred route when you reside in a mid-major conference, where the résumé analysis gets all hazy because you don’t get the same plethora of opportunities for season-defining victories that power conference teams do. So three big cheers for Drake, a bubble team through-and-through that no longer has to sweat their spot on Selection Sunday by virtue of winning the Missouri Valley tournament. Hip, hip, hooray! Same kudos due for James Madison, a much more inauspicious at-large choice with 22 of their 30 victories coming against the bottom-most quadrant. But that quandary no longer matters with the Sun Belt tournament title now in the Dukes’ possession. Huzzah!
And lastly, I’m popping Memphis. The Tigers had turned their tournament case into something worth considering in short order, but it all hinged on a massive Quad 1 win in Boca Raton to finish the regular season in order to really make things interesting. Memphis, of course, lost. And now locked into the AAC’s 5 seed with a 53.5 résumé average, 71.5 predictive average, 6-7 Q1/2 record and pair of Q3/Q4 defeats, the Tigers need two victories of Quad 2 or greater to get back into the hunt… at which point, they would have already won the conference tournament and American’s automatic bid, based on how the bracket is set up. That means it’s literally auto-bid-or-bust for Memphis, thus resulting in disqualification from Bauer’s Bubble Watch. Next!
- Lock: Dayton, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Florida Atlantic, Drake, James Madison
- Safe:
- Bubble: Indiana State, Princeton
Indiana State: In a just world, Robbie Avila and Indiana State will get to go dancing, even without a Missouri Valley tournament title. And I believe that world is our world. You may be skeptical, what with the Sycamores’ single Quad 1 victory over non-contender Bradley. But I’d like you to consider the following: ever since the NET era began, the selection committee, comprised of six representatives from power conferences and six reps from mid-majors, has had a tendency to sneak in those non-P6 teams who vastly exceed the expectations set for them. Belmont in 2019. Drake in 2021. Wyoming in 2022. Hell, both 2019 UNC Greensboro and 2022 Dayton were a bid thief away from playing in March Madness, too. And I staunchly believe that Indiana State will fall into this same category. They’re ranked 29th in the NET with every team sheet metric hovering around 40th. They’re 5-5 in Q1/2 and an astounding 15-5 outside of Terre Haute. They played a decently challenging non-conference schedule (188th) for a mid-major. And they were outright champs in the 10th-best conference in Division I, per KenPom; the Missouri Valley is no cakewalk. And for that, I genuinely believe that the Trees get in at the end of the day. (Though not with enough confidence to put them above the bubble. I may be crazy, but I ain’t stupid.)
Princeton: The Ivy League regular season is all wrapped up, with a short two-round tournament just before Selection Sunday the only thing standing between now and the bracket reveal. That means that, for the most part, what you see is what you get with Princeton. The Tigers will play, at maximum, two more games. If they win them both, great, they’re in as the Ivy’s auto-bid. If they lose the first, that’s curtains; part of what’s kept Princeton’s tenuous at-large hopes alive is their team sheet clean of any Q3 or Q4 losses. Can’t blow that now against Q3 Brown (a team that has given the Tigers some fits in both of their matchups this year) in the semis. That leaves us with the curious middle ground, in which Princeton drops a tight Q2 contest to Yale or Cornell in the Ivy League championship. What then? Probably out, I’d guess, but maybe the selection committee puts serious stock into the Tigers’ solid metrics (everything but KenPom placing 50th or higher) and then-13-4 record outside of Mercer County. As I just touched on with Indiana State, the committee has a tendency to reward mid-majors who go above and beyond in some way. Would the Tigers qualify?
BAUERTOLOGY 