Life as a mid-major was already tough. We didn’t need to make it any tougher. But we did anyway.
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the seed lists that I include at the bottom of each of these Bauertology posts, you’ve probably noticed that there hasn’t been much activity in the “bids by conference” section. Indeed; aside from a short stint by the Atlantic 10 in the first projection of 2025, only seven different conferences have made an appearance as multi-bid recipients this entire calendar year: SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Big East, Mountain West, and WCC. Five of these are expected, being the traditional power conferences, leaving only the WCC and Mountain West as multi-bid mid-majors. And even that’s hardly worth getting excited about; the WCC is just Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, i.e., the same two teams that have ruled the WCC for eons, and the three bids projected for the MW pales in comparison to the six it received just a season ago.
This dearth of mid-major love is a stark contrast from a little over a decade ago, when leagues like the Missouri Valley, CUSA, and even MAAC sometimes got more than just one bid, as was the case in 2012. What happened?
Greed. Greed and oneupmanship happened. The announcement of Texas’ and Oklahoma’s departure for the SEC almost exactly two years ago started a cascade effect, in which money-hungry power conferences inflated themselves in order to stay atop the pecking order, with little to no consideration being made for academics, non-football/basketball athletics, or the little guy.
These super-conferences are draining power from the mid-majors right before our very eyes. Yes, much credit must go to the SEC for putting together what is perhaps the greatest single season of all time for one league, to the point that it may get as many as 13 or 14 bids in the dance when it’s all said and done. But a conference collecting double-digit tournament bids was once considered a rare and astonishing achievement. With 16- and 18-team leagues looking like the future, it’s going to become a regular occurrence.
And where are all those extra bids for the power conferences coming from? You guessed it—the mid-majors. And they’re essentially powerless to stop it. I’ve tried time and again to highlight some of the lesser-known standouts, but there’s just no room for them. Take a look at a team like North Texas, who has come extremely close to breaking through into my Next Four Out on a weekly basis, winning 10 straight from Dec. 18 to Jan. 29, save for a tight loss at American frontrunner Memphis on Jan. 5. But—oops—one setback against Quad 4 UTSA this past Saturday, and the Mean Green are essentially donezo for at-large purposes. Or how about Dayton, who actually set itself up for success rather nicely with massive non-conference victories over Marquette and UConn… only to stumble to a 5-4 start in A-10 play, where there are unlikely to be enough quality opportunities to jump back into serious consideration. Santa Clara was actually able to break through into my graphic last week off the back of a 103-99 stunner in Spokane, but back-to-back defeats to Oregon State and Saint Mary’s, the latter seeing the Broncos give up an excruciating 30-0 run, means our hopes of seeing some fresh blood from the WCC in March are almost entirely shot.
And it goes beyond just the teams on the outside looking in. Bradley was another team garnering my attention as a potential second MVC pick, as the Braves began the 2024-25 campaign to a scorching 18-3 start. But back-to-back losses to UIC and Northern Iowa have put the pin in their bubble, AND, because Bradley has suddenly sunk to 79th in NET, Drake’s quality win in Peoria on Jan. 8 has lost a lot of its luster—enough to push Drake below my at-large cut line for the first time this season. Drake didn’t even do anything wrong and got punished for it!
And of course, while these mid-majors are fighting for their life in every single game, the mediocrity swimming about in the P5 leagues are free to putz around for weeks, put together one or two wins out of nowhere, and suddenly jump back into the picture. Arkansas looked cooked after a 1-6 start to SEC play, but one objectively hilarious win in Lexington later, and the Razorbacks are back on the cusp, clinging to the final spot in my Next Four Out. Nebraska was 2-7 against Big Ten opposition, firmly on the outside of the tournament. Now the Cornhuskers are back in the field entirely with just two simple victories over Illinois and Oregon. Heck, even North Carolina just misses the page as my ninth team out, with losses to Pittsburgh and Duke finally brushing the Tar Heels to the outskirts—just barely.
It’s unfair that it works this way, that four or five conferences with all the power can stuff as much of their meh as possible into March, whilst the exciting middle leagues are left to fight for the scraps. If it were up to me, I would surely push back against it and show some love to the little guy. But I’m just the messenger; I’m only interpreting what I think the selection committee would do. And until proven otherwise, this is the reality we’re facing—a reality where the exciting mid-major is on the verge of extinction. And it really stinks. (I blame the Longhorn Network.)
But bracketology powers on just the same. Here’s the latest edition of Bauertology for Monday, Feb. 3. With the calendar now just a month from March, I’m hoping I can start to institute twice-a-week Bauertology, alongside the much-awaited return of Bauer’s Bubble Watch next Monday. TBD on whether or not I’ll be able to cram three pieces of content into my weekly schedule.
As a reminder, all automatic bids are selected based on which team ranks highest among their conference in my résumé metric BRCT. (This has worked out pretty well this season, though I must apologize to Bryant, who would make a far more sensible choice for the American East auto-bid, given the league standings. But as of today, it’s UMass Lowell’s better non-con that still has them on top of the AmEast BRCT-wise, so I have to stick with the River Hawks, given my own parameters. Sorry, Bulldogs.)
