Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls: the best time of year is finally here. Welcome back, Bubble Watch.
In just over a month’s time, the 68-team field will be revealed, and the greatest spectacle in sports—nay—world history, will commence. This, of course, is the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament, better known as March Madness. But before we can watch the buzzer beaters, Cinderella runs, and March magic play out before our very eyes, we need determine which 68 teams will receive an invite to the big dance. And this is what Bauer’s Bubble Watch looks to determine.
If you’re a college hoops sicko like me and have been watching every day since IU Indy (R.I.P. Ooey Pooey) and NAIA foe IU Columbus tipped us off on Nov. 4, there’s a good chance you’re familiar with how Bubble Watch works. Or, if you’re just now jumping on the CBB bandwagon now that football season is officially over, fret not—there’s still plenty of room in this party for each and every one of ya.
For our newbies, here’s the skinny of how Bubble Watch works. As is the case every year, 68 teams will be selected to compete in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday (March 16). Of these lucky few, 31 will be handed an automatic bid as a result of winning their conference tournament—worth noting that this number is down from 32 in years past (R.I.P. Pac-12; we’re less than four paragraphs into this and we’ve already memorialized the deceased twice). Do the math, and you’ll find that there are still 37 spots up for grabs, which will be handed out ‘at-large’ to the 37 non-conference tournament winners who can best present a case for selection.
Of course, every team will want to win that coveted conference tourney crown to ensure their name will be called come judgment day. But should they stumble in said endeavor, it’ll be critical that their season-long résumé of wins, losses, metrics, and more will be one of the ones good enough to make the cut.
Here at Bauer’s Bubble Watch, we take a good gander at all these at-large résumés and sort the ones worth pondering over into one of three categories:
- Lock: The “lock” designation is your good-as-gold guarantee. These teams already have the credentials necessary for at-large inclusion and will be playing in the tournament no matter what… barring a collapse of epic proportions so unlikely that it’s not even worth considering as a possibility. Once the Bubble Watch lock has been handed down, that lock lasts forever.
- Safe: Any teams that land in the “safe” category would be virtually guaranteed to make the 68-team field were it selected today, but they’ve still got work to do between now and the Selection Show to join the land of lock-dom and say that they’ll be dancing without question.
- Bubble: The most captivating category of Bauer’s Bubble Watch is the titular “bubble,” in which said teams have no semblance of safety at present moment, and are either just inside or just outside the projected tournament field. (For brevity’s sake, our definition of “bubble” tends to be pretty strict—you need to have something on your résumé compelling enough to worth being labeled a bubble team.)
As is the case every year, Bauer’s Bubble Watch will analyze the teams in these three classifications in a conference-by-conference format, recapping weekly the movements that occur between categories as some teams solidify their cases, while others watch their bubbles go boom.
In the first BBW of 2025, we open with our three categorical groupings containing the following number of teams:
Now, with the help of some snazzy new graphics, making their Bauer’s Bubble Watch debut in 2025 (and let me know what you think of them, by the way), let’s go conference-by-conference, team-by-team, and delve into what our bubble has to offer.
ACC
2019. That’s the last time that the ACC was considered a top-3 conference in college basketball, per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. We have not seen overall league dominance from the Atlantic Coast since Zion Williamson stomped the streets of Durham. What happened? Of course, this lull period has largely coincided with Louisville’s sudden swoon, but they’re good again, so what’s the excuse this year?
It’s the same as it’s always been during this troublesome time: The bottom half is dragging the top down with it. A drooping Miami squad went 4-7 in non-conference play. Boston College lost at home to Dartmouth. Notre Dame lost at home to Elon. Virginia Tech lost at home to Jacksonville. This is a pandemic-level issue not present in other power conferences! And it’s not like any of the three newcomers (California, SMU, Stanford), brought in as a consequence of the college athletics arm race, are known for being basketball powerhouses. Thus, even with an overbearing 18 teams, tied with the Big Ten for the most of any conference, the ACC is facing the reality of earning five bids or fewer for the third season in a row.
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll know that this notion of a weak ACC has garnered plenty of pushback in recent years, especially since this league has the tendency to make the most out of its limited tournament invitations (just five bids last year, yet three of ’em got to the Elite Eight—how do they do it?). But ever since the ACC went a pitiful 2-14 in the SEC Challenge back in early December, that pushback has largely been silent. People have started to accept that the ACC just isn’t as good as it used to be. It’s a sad reality, but it’s our reality.
There is one reprieve from this inadequacy, and that’s Duke, well on its way to earning a 1 seed in March behind the dynamic play of freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, while fellow diaper dandies Kon Kneuppel and Khaman Malauch have helped to round out an experienced portal-assembled cast that has cut through this conference like a hot knife through butter—12-1 at the time of writing, with Saturday’s forgivable slip-up (pun fully intended) at Clemson being the only pockmark. In landing a blow on likely #1 overall Auburn back on Dec. 4, alongside a true road win at Arizona that has aged like wine, the Dukies have all the marks of a team that eventually sees its name on the top line. They’re a first-edition lock of the highest order.
But it’s slim pickings after that. Apart from a duo of 11-win teams looking like safe postseason bets, the ACC offers just four bubble squads, who combine for a grand total of three Quad 1 wins. Oy vey.
Louisville: Just hand Pat Kelsey the key to the city right now. The turnaround that Louisville has undergone this season cannot be understated; this was a team swimming in the depths of despair for the first half of this decade, frequently ranking among the worst power conference teams in KenPom and other measures, and failing to win more than 10 conference games in a season since before the ‘Rona hit—certainly a far cry from the Cardinals of the 2010s that routinely competed for protected seeds in March. To rescue a once-proud program from that kind of mire, in the NIL era where success needs to come quicker than ever, and whilst dealing with a season-ending injury to Kasean Pryor, who was expected to shoulder the burden of the Birds’ hopes for a return greatness… it is a feat that should not go unnoticed. Save for a Feb. 1 stumble at Georgia Tech, Louisville has been unbeaten since the calendar flipped to 2025. And though a poor version of the ACC doesn’t provide much more in terms of quality (no Quad 1 games remaining between now and the conference tournament), the Cardinals have done such fine work up to this point that it shouldn’t really matter, so long as they can steer clear of the Q3 landmines left on their ledger. Do that, and they’ll be dancing for the first time since 2019.
Clemson: Fun fact: With Leonard Hamilton announcing his resignation from Florida State come season’s end, Brad Brownell now takes the title of longest-tenured head coach in the ACC. A bit wild, considering how up-and-down that tenure has been over the course of 15 seasons, but, fresh off an Elite Eight run and now 19-5 overall in the ensuing campaign, Clemson basketball is in a good spot. That sentiment is further reflected in Saturday’s uplifting win over Duke, not only because punching blow-for-blow with the runaway conference frontrunner and managing to land the knockout jab late feels really good, but also because the Tigers’ profile kinda needed it. That lone victory elevates their metrics from the semi-uneasy 30s to the much more comfortable 20s, while also sprucing up that Q1 mark to a respectable 3-2. Not the kind of résumé that blows you away, but it does look downright dreamy in comparison to the current state of the bubble. Consecutive trips to the Madness appears to be a go.
Wake Forest: Oh, Wake. Have you learned nothing from the bubble antics of last year? Winston-Salem has gotten quite restless in its quest to reach the big dance for the first time since 2017, and Steve Forbes’ seeming inability to understand what constitutes a tournament-level résumé surely hasn’t helped matters. The good news is that last year’s NIT-bound Demon Deacons and this year’s Deacs are facing different bubble scenarios; the former looked good on paper per NET, KenPom, and BPI, but lacked any of the punchy victories needed to make a compelling case. Meanwhile, the latter does have some meat on the bones (wins at Stanford, neutral court vs. Michigan), though poor predictives as a result of nail-biters against USC Upstate and Detroit Mercy go to contradict those worthwhile results. I say that this is the more fortunate scenario for Wake since the résumé numbers do matter for more selection… though at just 1-6 in Quad 1, there’s plenty more work to do. Q1 opportunities remain at SMU (Feb. 15) and at Duke (March 3). Hop to it.
North Carolina: Saturday’s escape against Pitt in Chapel Hill served as a necessary sigh of relief for a frustrated Tar Heels team. The lack of an Armando Bacot type in the frontcourt and unexpected regression in the backcourt have been thoroughly documented across North Carolina’s 14-10 start, in which the Heels have only managed a single Quad 1 victory (UCLA on Dec. 21). And yet, their metrics remain tenable—certainly more so on the quality side—as the 14th-most difficult schedule in the country per NET has lent UNC some leeway. But the selection committee will not smile upon this consistent inability to beat the best, as we saw with the 2023 Tar Heels that sputtered to an identical 1-9 Q1 clip, ultimately being left for the NIT. (Or they would have, had they not declined the bid. Losers.) Either way, the weekend win is an encouraging sign that North Carolina might still have some gas in the tank, if only they can find a way to access it more frequently. Monday night at Clemson seems like as good a time as any to give that engine a rev.
SMU: I don’t know what the hell a power conference team that’s 0-4 in Quad 1 is doing on my bubble, but it would be downright wrong to exclude the Ponies from the picture. Somehow, SMU has expertly navigated itself to an 18-5 record that sees those 18 wins coming against teams NET #78 or worse, and those five losses coming against teams NET #82 or better. Perfectly designed to infuriate you! As a consequence of that top-tier victory dearth, I would have a hard time seeing the Mustangs in the field if it were selected today. But with all metrics but KPI placing 50th or better, they’re certainly worth a look. And they’ll have their chances to add some much-needed weight to this team sheet, what with every remaining game but Syracuse on March 4 placing in the upper half. Of course, only one of those games is Quad 1 (vs. Clemson on Feb. 22), and with the Tigers sitting right on the borderline at NET #30, that game could easily slip down to Q2 by season’s end, failing to resolve the Mustangs’ biggest issue. Headaches! You give me headaches!
Pittsburgh: Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand fast. Rewind to just a month ago and Pitt was sitting pretty—a safe choice for the ACC’s second-best outfit behind Duke at 12-2 with helpful W’s over West Virginia and Ohio State under their belt. Fast forward to today, and the Panthers are now 14-9, 5-7 in a dreadful ACC, and almost certainly on the outside of the field looking in. Throw in the news that Damian Dunn is out with a fractured elbow following Saturday’s latest deflate at UNC, and there’s not a lot of positivity going on in the Steel City right now. Opportunity does lie ahead to fix the wrongs on this team sheet with four Q1/2 contests before the ACC tournament, starting with a fateful visit to SMU on Tuesday. But given that the Panthers are just 1-6 in said matchups since the turn of the new year, is there really much reason to believe that they’ll right the ship? Sadly, probably not.
BIG 12
The prevailing belief entering the 2024-25 campaign—at least, from what I saw—is that the Big 12, with its four newcomers replacing the production of SEC-bound Texas and Oklahoma, was supposed to be the marquee conference in college hoops. It hasn’t quite panned out that way, as the B12 ranks a steady third behind the SEC and Big Ten in KenPom’s estimation, but this is still a very strong league nonetheless. Though not quite as rock-solid from top to bottom as it has been in years past (poor Colorado is still winless through a dozen conference games), the Big 12 remains as fun and physical as ever. And the fact that perhaps the single most stunning result this season—a middling Kansas State dominating then-1 seed Iowa State by 19 points in Ames to kick off February—came from this conference shows that this bunch can still produce some mid-American mania from time to time.
Based on how the year has played out thus far, we seem to be on a collision course for eight or nine bids. Incredibly, five of them have already been locked up as of Feb. 10. No surprise to see Houston atop the pecking order; Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have been a 1 seed each of the past two seasons, and a strong conference finish to give some girth to their elite efficiency numbers could very well make it three in a row. Nor is it a shock to see Kansas, the gold standard for Big 12 success since the dawn of man. Though Jayhawk fans have often spouted doom at their team’s uncanny ability to blow seemingly impossible leads (vs. Houston and at Baylor, on back-to-back Saturdays), Bill Self’s bunch also has the ability to flip a switch and take complete control against any opponent, such as in their 99-48 thumping of UCF in Orlando on Jan. 5, or in last Monday’s full-throttle effort over Iowa State, in which the Cyclones never led once amid being held to a season-low 52 points. Kansas basketball may be inconsistent, but it remains inevitable.
Both Arizona and Texas Tech are locks too; though the Wildcats and Red Raiders each got off to slow non-conference starts (the former going 0-5 against Quad 1 opposition and the latter’s best win being over DePaul), their work in Big 12 play has more than made up for it. UA’s debut season in the league has been sensational, a Jan. 18 trip to TTU that got out of hand late away from being a flawless 12-0, while the Red Raiders have been road warriors, taking every one of their league contests outside of Lubbock thus far (including at Houston!), save for Saturday’s rematch at Zona. As a result, the résumé metrics are starting to match what the predictives have said about these two all along.
And even though Caleb Love’s 60-foot floater at the horn on Jan. 27 appeared to send Iowa State careening a bit too much for comfort, the Cyclones are still in great shape, courtesy of their 10-1 non-con clip and 7-1 start to conference play before this sudden slide. Plus, the return of Milan Momcilovic to the floor, as seen in Saturday’s no-nonsense win over TCU, will shore up the patches that have been leaking since that heartbreaker in Tucson.
That’s five first-edition locks; meanwhile, the rest of the Big 12’s at-large onlookers will likely stay on this page for some time to come. (And, yes, I’m keeping my eye on Kansas State after five straight wins, but at 12-11 overall, the Wildcats are still a bit beyond the bubble’s periphery. Let’s check back in a week.)
Baylor: We’re three full months into the season, and I’m still not entirely sure what to make of Baylor. It’s a very foreign sensation, considering that the Bears have regularly ranked right up there with the best of them ever since hoisting their first title banner back in 2021. Perhaps it’s not a surprise for a starting lineup consisting largely of transfers and freshmen to struggle to jell against a rigorous schedule that has produced as many Quad 1 losses as total games against Quad 3 and 4, but you’d typically expect Scott Drew to have that stuff squared away by the second week of February. Criticisms aside, Baylor has still produced some inspiring results from time to time, such as the previous Saturday’s come-from-behind epic against Kansas and handy non-con wins over St. John’s and Arkansas, propelling the Bears to very solid efficiency metrics—albeit with results-based measures lagging behind. My guess is that those numbers will start to agree more as the season continues, and Baylor will eventually land a cozy spot in the tourney, even if it’s at a more underwhelming seed than usual.
West Virginia: Pat Kelsey is probably most people’s choice for Coach of the Year—and deservingly so—but I’m here to make sure that Darian DeVries gets his flowers too. Dude just wins. As head coach of Drake, DeVries won 20 games six times in as many tries, taking the Bulldogs to the tournament three of the last four years. Now, in year one with West Virginia, he’s primed to do the same, just a year removed from the Bob Huggins disaster that left the Mountaineers for dead. What’s most impressive is that this rebirth has come largely without DeVries’ star son Tucker, two-time MVC player of the year, unfortunately sidelined until season’s end with an upper-body injury. “So what?” the Mountaineers say! Javon Small has instead stepped up into that do-it-all role, and the result has been victories over the likes of Arizona, Kansas, Iowa State, and Gonzaga; that total of four Quad 1A wins ranks among the nation’s very best. Admittedly, the underlying metrics do leave a bit to be desired (36.0 résumé average, 42.7 quality average), but when paired with those load-bearing victories mentioned prior, in comparison to what the bubble has to offer, the Mountaineers’ case is decidedly solid. Good times are back in Morgantown once again.
BYU: You wouldn’t think of Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah, of all places to be the NCAA’s newest one-and-done factory. But times have changed, and with former Suns associate coach Kevin Young running the show, the mindset in the mountains has shifted. How has it worked so far? …Eh. BYU does look good on paper, with the Cougars’ reliance on likely lottery pick Egor Demin serving to keep the quality metrics in working order. But the final outcomes have been less inspiring, as BYU is just 2-5 against Quad 1 opposition with zero non-conference results of note. This feels like a team very capable of playing high-level basketball (as we saw in back-to-back wins over Baylor and UCF two weeks ago), but doing so consistently remains an issue (as we saw in a late petering out vs. Arizona and a second-half no-show at Cincinnati last week). The Cougars have five more Quad 1 opportunities between now and the Big 12 tournament; gotta get to work and make their at-large outlook more appetizing. A.J. Dybantsa ain’t walking through that door. (At least, until fall.)
UCF: It’s starting to get dark out early in Orlando. Hats off to the Knights; for as ill-fitting as they are geographically for the Big 12, they’ve mostly held their own through their first two seasons as a member. But the mighty, mighty Big 12 might be too mighty for UCF. Since an pleasantly surprising 12-4 start that included true road triumphs over Texas Tech and Arizona State, the Knights have been overwhelmed by this league’s collective strength, faltering in six of the past seven contests against opponents that range anywhere from lock to bubble. Decent résumé numbers have been the Knights’ saving grace, as the quality metrics have been none too keen on UCF ever since getting curb-stomped by Kansas to start 2025, but now those numbers are starting to sour too, and a 3-10 record in Q1/2 is hardly any indication of a tournament team. A hasty turnaround is obligatory to stay in contention, and that starts with Iowa State’s visit to O-Town on Tuesday night.
Cincinnati: This is about as far as I’m willing to extend the bubble. At 1-7 in Quad 1 with poor performance metrics (KPI 67, SOR 56, WAB 60) and an abysmal non-conference strength of schedule (278th), Cincinnati is still very much a stretch to be considered a tournament threat at present moment. But it does feel like these Bearcats have finally started to turn a corner after their utterly disastrous 2-8 conference start that plummeted their KenPom rank from 22nd to 61st, stringing together two solid outings over fellow Big 12 bubblers UCF and BYU. Both of those results reside close to the Q1/Q2 border, so they’re not total game-changers, but they are enough to put a smidgen of air back in a Bearcat bubble that looked completely deflated at this same time a week ago. There’s no doubt in my mind that the big six minute-eaters on this roster have the individual talent to compete with the conference’s best; it just remains to be seen if they can put it all together in basketball harmony. Let’s see how they handle a short road trip that starts in Ames this coming Saturday.
BIG EAST
The ACC may cry foul about the disparity between its tournament bids and how said bids perform in March, but no league does more with less in that regard than the Big East. The only power conference not to expand in the last half-decade (well, except for the Pac-12, R.I.P. once again) has received a rather lean total of just eight bids over the past two tournaments, sending six of those to the Sweet Sixteen or beyond and claiming each of the last two national titles. Despite that success, the Big East is once again confronting the prospect of sending fewer than half its teams to the dance. It feels akin to the ACC’s dilemma, where it’s easy to interpret that notion as some level of disrespect for what the conference is capable of accomplishing.
That said, the circumstances are actually quite different. One peek at KenPom and you’ll see that the Big East fares much better in totality than its Atlantic Coast counterpart, as the seven-to-eight-team collection of sub-100 teams found in the latter is nowhere present in the former. Instead, what’s keeping the Big East down bid-wise is a hearty heaping of meh. Aside from a truly putrid Seton Hall squad, the bottom half of this league is simply unremarkable—not hideous in the slightest, but also not doing anything to inspire. Like, the Providences and Georgetowns of the world aren’t anything to write home about, but they also aren’t making you reach for the puke bucket like a Miami or Boston College would. And in the game that is tournament selection, only the strong team sheets matter, meaning a mediocre team and a rancid team are as good as equal—both will be watching March Madness from the couch. (Or, at least, that should be the case… this year’s bubble is giving me second thoughts on that notion.)
One of those strong team sheets belongs to Marquette, which surely looked a little spiffier before this three-game slide, but it’s no big sin to lose to the other three at-large likelies in this league; not when your collection of non-conference W’s includes Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Georgia. The Golden Eagles and their turnover-reliant small-ball style are March locks just the same.
Of course, the Big East’s BIG success story is St. John’s, a first-edition lock fresh off back-to-back wins over Marquette and UConn, the latter coming in the Huskies’ own building. In year two, Rick Pitino has worked his magic, transforming the Red Storm into a magnificent defensive outfit—one that made every single bucket hell for the two-time defending champs in Friday’s dub at Gampel, a result that places the Johnnies atop the Big East standings at 12-1 and 21-3 overall. 21-3! A one-point loss at Creighton, three-point loss to Georgia in the Bahamas, and still-confounding one-point loss vs. Baylor are all that stand between SJU and an unblemished record. The Red Storm haven’t been this good since they earned a 2 seed in 2000, and the way they’re playing, I wouldn’t put it past them to climb that high too once the dust has settled.
Creighton: Remember when Creighton started 7-5 and people were ready to label this as a “down year” for the Bluejays? Ha. Pretty funny in hindsight. Don’t get me wrong, I totally understand why people said that. A season-ending hip injury to Texas Tech pickup Pop Isaacs a year removed from program staples Baylor Scheierman and and Trey Alexander departing left Creighton looking pretty lean on the star power front, and the early result was an 81-57 baptism in D.C. by a Georgetown team that has historically not been very good as of late. Completely understandable to panic! But as it turns out, Greg McDermott is good at his job (shocker), and the 1-2 punch of Ryan Kalkbrenner and Steven Ashworth may be the most formidable center-guard combo in the country—the former for his overwhelming post presence, and the latter for sensationally timely shot-making. (Dude has made 83 of his 85 free-throw attempts this year. That’s 98%. 98%!) Now, the Bluejays have won nine straight, downing both UConn and Marquette in that span, and seem just a game or two away from cementing their lock and reaching the tournament for the fifth time in as many seasons. Down year, my rear.
UConn: UConn, meanwhile, is actually facing a down year—and that’s only in comparison to the heights that this program has seen of recent. The pendulum has been a-swingin’ in Storrs, as the two-time defending national champs looked the part in their early-season cupcake games, then went through the unforgettable Maui disaster in which Dan Hurley’s head nearly exploded, then rode an eight-game winning streak over the likes of Baylor, Texas, and Gonzaga back to the game’s elite, and have now once again returned to Earth, seemingly trading wins for losses in every other Big East contest since their initial 4-0 conference start. Surely the return of dynamic freshman Liam McNeeley to the court will help to soothe that steadiness issue (already dropped 18 in his first game back), and the Huskies do have plenty of potential ahead to remedy their decidedly sour résumé numbers, which reside in the very uneasy low 40s as of writing. But given their 3-0 Q1A record, 5-2 clip in true road contests, and championship pedigree, I’m willing to bet that the selection committee gives UConn the benefit of the doubt, so long as the metrics remain reasonable.
Xavier: The Bearcats are not the only Cincinnati-area team currently clinging to bubble life in a year where preseason expectations were sky-high. Crosstown rival Xavier faces similar straits—nearly identical, in fact. Résumé metric average near 60, predictive metric average near 50? Check. Solid Quad 2 record but just one Quad 1 win in eight or nine tries? Check. Highly underwhelming non-conference results, in which the annual meeting between these foes (which Cincinnati won) is probably the most notable result? Checky-check-check. Get a room, you two! Anyway, the Musketeers are in bubble trouble. Sean Miller did a fine job at keeping the ship from sinking during Zach Freemantle’s late December absence, but the month of results collected since his return has hardly been worth fawning over. Saturday’s 12-point loss at Villanova in which Xavier led by six late is a massive missed opportunity, since a victory would have gone a long way toward rectifying X’s broken Q1 record, and since remaining opportunities are scarce, with Creighton’s visit to Cintas on March 1 being the only game left against a team with postseason aspirations. I’m not liking the Muskies’ dancing chances.
BIG TEN
Quick tangent here—can we please rename the power conferences? If we’re going to destroy the credibility of college athletics little by little, the least we can do is make the names more accurate, no? Sorry if this is a controversial opinion, but I think the “Atlantic Coast Conference” should only include teams that play on, ya know, the Atlantic Coast. In my opinion, the Big Ten is the worst offender of this. I’ll certainly give you credit—with a footprint spanning from L.A. to Piscataway, the Big Ten sure is “big.” But this league now has 18 freakin’ teams, nearly double the titular 10. I mean, what are we doing here? The Big Ten hasn’t had 10 teams since 1989. That’s 36 years of being inaccurate! Pick a new name already!
Alright, back to the basketball. The Big Ten’s had a lot of fun stories this year, between Purdue still being a powerhouse without Zach Edey, Nebrasketball coming to life as of late, UCLA’s travel-related meltdowns, the sheer ineptitude of Mike Woodson-led Indiana… you name it. This is a good league with a lot of good teams, likely to collect the second- or third-most bids of any, and most of those bids are probably looking at single-digit seeds. But outside of the Boilermakers, I don’t really think anyone here is a threat to land on one of those top two seed lines, where multiple SEC or Big 12 teams are likely to lie. And that’s what I think makes the Big Ten fun; it isn’t nearly as top-heavy as the others. It’s a balanced conference with all 18 teams inside the KenPom top 100, and all 18 are able to conjure up a winning result here or there when the mood strikes them.
That kind of evenness makes the Big Ten enjoyable from a viewing standpoint; not so for Bubble Watch. With few teams at the very top, and lots of teams at the bottom likely to be poking their head in and out of the bubble here and there, this section of the page will probably be the biggest backache to write week in and week out. Yippee.
Let’s make it easier on ourselves and divvy out some locks. Welcome to March, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Michigan! As touched on previously, the Boilermakers sans Edey still score among Division I’s best, with the double-digit trio of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn carrying this squad to top-10 metrics and 14 Quad 1/2 wins: second most in the nation behind Auburn. The Spartans’ underlying numbers aren’t quite as impressive, and there might be a sensation of hesitation on Michigan State following last week’s woes on the West Coast, but Sparty’s still got a winning record in Q1 and defeats in no other quadrant, also rolling to a 7-2 mark in locations not named East Lansing (or Los Angeles). Then there’s the Badgers, off to the postseason for the 24th time in the last 27 years. Wisconsin seemed due to take a step back in 2025 with last year’s centerpieces AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn off to don different jerseys; nope, Badgerball chugs along just the same, successfully adapting to a much more offensive-minded approach than Wiscy fans have become accustomed to (#5 scoring offense in the Big Ten—their highest mark in a decade). Finally, there’s Michigan, set to return to the dance after skipping the past two years. The bad vibes of the late Juwan Howard days are dead and buried with Dusty May running the show in Ann Arbor, and though the Wolverines often win a little too close for comfort (each of the past four decided by four points or fewer), the most important matter is that they are indeed winning—a lot, actually. UM’s five true road victories in Quad 1 lead all of college hoops.
So four teams are guaranteed as of right now; can the Big Ten live up to its name and get 10 teams into the tournament? And can they do it quickly so I don’t have to write a thousand words in this section every week? I’d be willing to be a little less harsh on my critique of the conference’s name if they could pull it off… maybe.
Illinois: Outside of Gonzaga, there is no team in the current projected field that has a greater disparity between its results-based and efficiency-based metrics. Illinois is undoubtedly elite in the latter category, ranking 12th in NET, 13th in BPI, 14th in KenPom, and 10th in T-Rank. But the high-end victories that transform the résumé, where the Illini rank just 27th in KPI, 33rd in WAB, and 38th in SOR, have yet to happen. Despite this discrepancy, I’m inclined to believe that the selection committee would look on Illinois’ current profile rather favorably, given that they’ve backed up those upper-echelon predictives with six Quad 1 wins—even if all six land in “OK, that’s good” territory, rather than “wow, that’s great” territory. This is all just a long-winded way of saying that Illinois is probably a better team than the performances thus far have indicated, and it seems likely that they’ll spruce up their eventual postseason seed once some of those big-time wins finally roll in. Save for Iowa, every remaining game is Q1. Surely the Illini will capitalize… surely.
UCLA: This is the second year in a row now that we’ve seen a highly mercurial coach completely toss his players under the bus after a frustrating set of losses, calling them “soft” or “delusional” or “latterly slow” or whatever, only for said players to adopt a full 180 and look seemingly unstoppable at a critical point in the season. It was Rick Pitino and St. John’s last year, and it’s Mick Cronin and UCLA this year. Of course, that Red Storm team’s turnaround was too little, too late, as they ultimately missed out on the big dance by a couple spots. But this Bruins squad has turned its fortunes around with room to spare, completely erasing mid-January’s disaster trip East with seven straight victories, each landing in Quad 1 or 2. As such, UCLA’s profile looks more like that of a protected seed than the bubble team it once was. Give the crazy bald man his due. He knows what he’s doing.
Maryland: It’s a good thing that Maryland shoved the shenanigans aside in mid-January because this is not a team sheet where you can play those kind of games. With the 325th-ranked non-conference schedule that features only two victories over teams better than 236th in NET (Villanova and Syracuse, both non-contenders), the Terrapins were just begging the selection committee to short them of a tournament invite should it come to a close call. Thankfully, it’s no longer close; Maryland is 5-1 in its last six with freshman dunkmaster Derik Queen and ideal guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie playing exemplary ball, placing the Terps well ahead of the curve with excellent quality metrics, doable results measures, and a 21-point win in Champaign to serve as the icing on the cake. Expect that NCSOS and less-than-desirable road record (2-5) to temper the Terps’ seed, but don’t expect them to miss out on March entirely.
Oregon: Predictive metrics: they call them “predictive” for a reason. During Oregon’s roaring 16-3 start, in which the Ducks had collected eight—count ’em—eight Quad 1 wins, the likes of KenPom and T-Rank were never really fazed, as after a 109-77 whomping by Illinois in Eugene, they never had Oregon any higher than 25th, in spite of all the winning that Dana Altman and company had been doing. Well, well, well—looks like ol’ Ken Pomeroy deserves an apology. Turns out winning all these Q1 games by a single bucket isn’t sustainable, and now Oregon finds itself 0-5 since Jan. 21’s sweaty win over NET #92 Washington (another result indicative of things to come), tumbling down the seed list from a solid 2 or 3 to an uneasy 7 or 8—right where the predictive metrics said the Ducks belonged all along. It’s hard to see them ever falling out of the field entirely, what with neutral-court wins over Alabama and Texas A&M in hand. But Oregon does need to start playing better ball again, else they risk trashing their seed even further.
Ohio State: Find yourself a team in the land more fickle than the Ohio State Buckeyes, I dare you! Depending on what day of the week it is, OSU can either display unrivaled giant-toppling prowess (Jan. 21 W at Purdue, 20-point drubbing of Kentucky at MSG) or complete and utter ineptitude (OT home loss to Indiana, total no-shows vs. Maryland and Auburn). They can be your angle, or yuor devil! At a menial 14-10, possessing so-so metrics and a sufficient Q1/2 mark of 8-10, the Buckeyes are a team that would likely but reluctantly receive a bid, somewhere in the realm of Last Four Byes. They can probably sail that ship of mediocrity into March, so long as they split the rest of their schedule, arriving at their expected KenPom totals of 18-13 overall and 10-10 in conference—albeit with an ugly seed. Hold serve these next three games at the Schott, then go do some West Coast winning in late February, and we’d have a different story on our hands. Go grab that Goliath-slaying slingshot while you still have it, Bucks!
Nebraska: Color me pleasantly surprised; the Nebrasketball renaissance is far from over. I really expected the Cornhuskers to take a major step back this season, what with fan favorite Keisei Tominaga no longer around to save the day. And it certainly seemed like that regression was due when Nebraska stumbled to a 2-7 conference start, effectively erasing good non-con work over Creighton and Oregon State in the process. But here we are in mid-February, and the Huskers are still kickin’, far more likely to be on the inside of the field than out, as the All-Big Ten-like heroics of Brice Williams and Juwan Gary have propelled Nebraska to four straight wins, including a 2-0 trip to the Pacific Northwest. With team sheet numbers in the low 40s and high 30s, and a .500 record in Quad 1/2 play, it’s not the most rousing profile in the world, but it’ll absolutely play once you compare it to fellow bubble squads scrounging for résumé data half as good. Keep it up, Huskers; that elusive first NCAA Tournament victory is still within reach.
Indiana: Complete, unmitigated disaster—the only words appropriate for what seems very likely to be Mike Woodson’s final season at the helm of Indiana basketball. That may be strong vocabulary for a team that is still indeed on the bubble—still just two or three games away from being in the projected field—but when you spend over $5 million in NIL to build a basketball team seemingly fighting for its life every single night, you can see how the gap between expectations and reality is cavernous. Outside of an overtime thriller in Columbus on Jan. 17, Indiana has not won a game in a month. Whether it’s poorly drawn-up baseline plays in a gotta-have-it moment (Maryland), failure to close out the final 30 seconds against your biggest rival (Purdue), or just inadequate effort all-around (Wisconsin), the Hoosiers have found new ways to keep their woes rolling, and Woodson simply must shoulder the blame for it. Coming up empty this week at Michigan State and against UCLA would put the losing streak at seven, likely ending IU’s bubble suffering for good.
USC: Again, we’re getting into the far outer reaches of the bubble with a team like USC, but we should take a second to admire the Trojans’ ascent from 0%-chancer in early December following a rocky start to the season, up to mere at-large long shot—a consequence of timely Big Ten victories over the likes of Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska, the latter two coming 1,500+ miles away from home. Still, the Trojans do remain just that—a long shot—with those aforementioned victories not doing enough to offset metrics in the 50s and 60s, a poor out-of-conference slate with no W better than NET #109 CSUN, and an unsightly 3-8 mark against the topmost quadrant. Thankfully, it gets a little easier from here on out; every single game played since the new year began has been Quad 1, excepting Iowa’s visit to the Galen Center on Jan. 14. The remaining schedule is a mix of gimme Quad 2/3 home games and doable Quad road 1 games, mostly against inferior competition (Rutgers) or opponents closer to home (Oregon, UCLA). The possibility is there for USC to make a statement.
SEC
Is the 2024-25 SEC the greatest conference in modern college basketball history? People are asking. And it’s not the kind of ridiculous, engagement-farming, obviously-the-answer-is-no kind of asking. There’s a legitimate argument to be made here. This year’s SEC rates the highest of any conference since KenPom started tracking data in 1997, with an expected net rating for a team that goes .500 in league play of +21.65. Since the turn of the century, only the 2004 ACC is in the same ballpark with a score of +20.32. That ACC squeezed six of its nine teams into March, each one earning a 6 seed or better. On a per-team and overall basis, this SEC may blow that mark out of the water. As of present moment, it’s completely realistic to expect the SEC to get as many as 13 or 14 teams into March, obliterating the previous single-conference high of 11, famously established by the Big East in 2011. Yes, the stacking of 16- and 18-team super-conferences is undeniably the main factor at play here. But when your league goes a combined 184-24 in non-conference play—a winning rate just shy of 90%… You’d be a liar to say you’re not impressed.
Considering this data, it should come as no surprise then that the SEC is already teeming with locks a month-plus out from Selection Sunday. Just as unsurprising is that Auburn is at the top of that list. The Tigers possess far and away the best résumé in the land, even after Saturday’s shocking home loss to Florida, as a Dec. 4 defeat at Duke is only other mistake on a 21-2 slate replete with top-shelf victories. Auburn’s 12 in the uppermost quadrant is four more than second place, already eclipsing the selection day totals of every team in 2024, save for Houston and eventual champion UConn. They’re lapping the field, y’all.
Elsewhere, hated rival Alabama has been nearly as impressive, their blazing tempo and high-octane offense (staples of the Nate Oats regime) lifting the Crimson Tide to team sheet marks worthy of a top-tier team. And Tennessee is not far behind; though the Volunteers always provide the perfect foil to the Tide with their slow, methodical pace and strait-jacket-level defense, their style of play works the same wonders, as the Vols place top-5 in all résumé and efficiency measures, with eight Quad 1 wins to boot. Florida also finds itself among the CBB elite, Saturday’s stunner at Neville perfectly displaying the Gators’ balanced offensive attack, which has translated into top-of-the-line metrics and a spiffy collection of Quad 1 and 2 victories that have kept Todd Golden’s squad firmly in the conversation for a 1 seed by season’s end. There’s Texas A&M, too, the Aggies playing easily their best ball of the Buzz Williams era. Though they still haven’t shaken the shooting woes of Buzzball teams prior (dead last in the SEC in FG%), they’ve made up for that deficiency in droves with timely offensive rebounding and the league’s second-best defense, firmly entrenching themselves in the protected seed conversation, tied for the third-most Q1 victories in the land. Last but not least (well, definitely least of this group) is Ole Miss, who just squeezes in as my final lock of the week, off the back of tight résumé metrics, solid efficiency numbers, a 9-6 record in Q1/2, and a mammoth win at Coleman Coliseum on Jan. 14 that will carry the Rebels across the finish line, regardless of what happens between now and March. As it stands, Ole Miss is not only in line for its first bid since 2019 but also its best overall seed since the Rebs’ last Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2001.
That’s six sensational squads in lock heaven—easily the most by one conference in Week 1 Bubble Watch—that we thankfully no longer need to write an iota about over the next five weeks… but, alas, the verbosity has only just begun, given the eight other teams popping up below in “safe” or “bubble” range. Buckle in.
Kentucky: The more things change, the more they stay the same. Kentucky fans probably don’t want to hear it, but this year’s Wildcats bunch shares a lot of similarities with the recent Calipari teams that got him driven out of Lexington. Not in roster construction, of course; Coach Cal’s Kentucky squads were always very heavy on freshman talent, while Mark Pope’s first-year UK group sees seniors gathering about 90% of the minutes. But everything else checks the boxes: explosive offense, porous and often counterproductive defense, landmark victories in the early season, befuddling losses in conference play…. I mean, isn’t last Saturday’s stinker vs. Arkansas exactly the kind of game that Cal’s Cats would have lost? And if you’re still not convinced, let’s review the résumé. Kentucky in 2024 earned a protected seed behind results and predictive metrics both hovering around 20, as well as an underwhelming .500 record against Quad 1/2 opposition, though they made up for it by being elite against the best of the best with six Quad 1A wins. Now in 2025, Kentucky is… looking at a protected seed behind results and predictive metrics both hovering around 20 yeah yeah yeah you get it. Identical! This is simply what you were meant to be. And if that’s any indication, then a lock is soon to be in Kentucky’s future. (As is a first-round upset to a double-digit seed… you take with the good with the bad.)
Missouri: Sometimes, a little patience is all you need. It would have been very easy for Missouri’s athletic staff and fanbase to get into a tizzy over the Tigers’ 0-18 showing in conference last season, a year removed from earning an NCAA Tournament 7 seed in Dennis Gates’ debut campaign. But Mizzou stuck with their guy, and that decision has paid dividends. The Tigers’ ascent from winless SEC afterthought to legitimate double-bye contender and near-NCAAT lock has been exceptional to watch play out in real time. Last weekend’s losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M may have dampened the celebration for now, but get this: the worst is all behind, as Mizzou is favored in each of its eight remaining games, per T-Rank. The Tigers only need to win half of those, if even that, to guarantee themselves a spot in the Madness. I think they’ll fly past that mark with ease.
Mississippi State: OK, so maybe Mississippi State isn’t quite the world beater that many thought they were during their 14-1 start; crack up that hype to the Bulldogs’ 90-57 beatdown of Pitt, a win that has gotten less impressive with time as the Panthers have faded. But that’s alright! In this SEC that takes no prisoners, MSU merely needs to be above average to coast to a fine seed. And that they’ve done; though they haven’t landed a blow on any of the teams ahead of them in the standings (other than Jan. 18’s important OT win at the Hump over arch-rival Ole Miss), the Bulldogs have performed admirably against the league’s lower half, notably going 3-0 on the road against such opposition. That’ll serve you perfectly well in this SEC, where quality wins grow on trees. Keep up that trend—and hopefully snag one or two of the remaining possible mega-wins for posterity’s sake—and Mississippi State will be a-OK come selection day.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma badly needs a bid this year. A program that was almost always a shoo-in during the Lon Kruger days has not been back since ol’ Lon retired in 2021, though they have come excruciatingly close, twice appearing in the selection committee’s First Four Out in three years under Porter Moser. And it seems like the Sooners maybe drifting in that direction once again, as their sensational 13-0 performance in the non-con has quickly subsided to the tune of a 3-7 start in their inaugural SEC season. Unlike most middle-of-the-road P5 schools that underperform out-of-conference and gather their quality victories via league play, Oklahoma has done the opposite, their neutral-court W’s over Arizona, Michigan, and Louisville helping to keep OU afloat while the SEC has spawned the Sooners just one Q1 win (Jan. 25 at Arkansas). It’s enough to just barely keep Oklahoma inside “safe” territory for now, but if things don’t turn around quickly here, they won’t be staying in that middle category much longer.
Vanderbilt: Another Coach of the Year candidate right here—Mark Byington takes James Madison to the big dance for the first time in over a decade, then heads off to NET #202 Vanderbilt and brings the Commodores within striking distance of their first tournament bid in eight years, while playing inside arguably the single most difficult conference of all time. Gotta love it! Two problems, though: 1) Vanderbilt really cannot afford to be close to the cutline with that 330th-ranked non-conference schedule hanging around its neck all albatross-like, and 2) Vandy’s next six games are all against teams that I’ve either locked today or designated as near-locks, each of which will surely be giving their all in hopes of landing one of those coveted protected seeds. It’s a very, very tall task for a team that is light on postseason experience! But these Commies have already knocked off Tennessee and Kentucky each once before inside Memorial Gym. Can they display the same bravado when taking to the road? We’ll find out soon enough.
Texas: Texas’ decision to jump ship for the warmer waters of the SEC went swimmingly for the football team in year one. Now the men’s basketball team is waiting for the same sunny reception. It’s certainly not a good sign that the Longhorns have seemingly gotten worse every year under Rodney Terry, falling from 2 seed in 2023, to 7 seed in 2024, to projected play-in team in 2025. And I suppose old habits die hard, as Texas brought along a very Big 12-esque 280th-ranked non-conference schedule; a problem, considering the Longhorns are just 4-7 in their new home. Even the most egregious NCSOS merchants of Big 12s past got to .500 in league play! Fortunately for the Horns, they probably don’t need to reach that mark to end up in the tournament, as 8-10 and perhaps even 7-11 will suffice. But given their preseason ranking of 19th, surely expectations were a little higher than battling for a bid on the bubble, no?
Georgia: Consider me in the camp firmly rooting for Georgia, a long-suffering men’s basketball program, to make its first NCAA Tournament appearance in a decade and collect its first NCAAT victory since 2002. Consider me also in the camp highly skeptical as to whether or not this year’s Bulldogs can make it happen. Things looked good in year three of the Mike White era following a 72-62 effort over Oklahoma on Jan. 11, placing the Bulldogs at 14-2 overall and 2-1 to start SEC play. But in this madhouse of a conference, it’s sink or swim, and Georgia has done much more of the former lately, their only wins in the past month coming over South Carolina and LSU; i.e., the only two SEC teams not present in Bauer’s Bubble Watch. Not good! On a team sheet that features a 1-5 road record and the #233 non-con strength of schedule, a fateful victory in Nassau over suddenly soaring St. John’s just before Thanksgiving is just about the only saving grace. Have to convert somewhere across these next five games, all of which fall into Quad 1.
Arkansas: Maybe John Calipari isn’t washed quite yet. Such allegations began pouring as Coach Cal failed to lead his transfer-laden Razorbacks to any noteworthy non-conference victories (save for a Dec. 10 squeaker over Michigan at MSG), before kicking off conference play to a 1-6 mark, putting into question the Hogs’ ability to land an NIT bid, let alone an NCAA invite. But lo and behold, the old Cat still has some new tricks. Last Saturday’s triumphant return to Rupp was just as surprising as it was extraordinarily funny, and then Arkansas kept the ball rolling with its second Quad 1 road dub in as many tries, holding on late at Texas to lift this profile to sudden relevancy. Saturday’s return to Earth via defeat to Alabama (a game that Arkansas only lost by four but trailed by as much as 15 with five minutes left) probably puts a lid on the Hogs’ sudden ascent and keeps them outside the projected field for now, given a shoddy 3-7 SEC clip and aforementioned lack of non-con success. But things have gotten pretty interesting in Fayetteville in short order.
OTHERS
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Welcome to the infamous “Others” section of Bauer’s Bubble Watch, the proverbial Island of Misfit Toys, where we highlight the mid-majors that have stood out enough from their peers résumé-wise in order to earn special recognition… even though their respective conferences haven’t done the same in totality.
You’ll notice that “Others” serves as a catch-all for every mid-major contender this year, bringing our conference-by-conference section total to a mere six—easily the lowest in this column’s history. There were times when Bauer’s Bubble Watch had as many as 10 different groupings, depending on how strong the American, Atlantic 10, and Mountain West were in a given season. But no such luxury is afforded this year; the MW and WCC may max out at three to four at-large-level bids, and nobody else is sniffing more than two. You can thank the grubby, greedy hands of the power conferences for that. (Again, this is all the Longhorn Network’s fault.)
Another consequence of this power drain is that we have zero at-large locks from the additionals in week one. This is the second straight year that this has happened after never happening previously in the history of Bauer’s Bubble Watch. (At least, as far as I can recall; all BBWs prior to 2021 have been lost to the sands of time…)
At least that gives me a little more leg room to write about a wide diversity of at-large cases, ranging from really solid but lacking in some measure, to oh-god-please-do-enough-to-save-us-from-the-trash-on-the-bubble-in-the-P5. If only we can get so lucky.
Memphis: Hands off the keyboard, Tigers fans. Let me explain this one. Yes, Memphis is having its best season yet under Penny Hardaway. Yes, the Tigers are 20-4 with an excellent 13.3 résumé metric average and a 10-2 record across Quadrants 1 and 2. No, they’re not a lock right now. And the simple reason why is because of Memphis’ conference. Whereas P5 teams are afforded the ability to occasionally stumble and then pick themselves right back up, Memphis has no such leeway as the American’s sole at-large contender. Aside from a loss at Q2 UAB on March 2, every remaining game between now and the AAC tournament would deliver an ugly blow to the Tigers’ profile should they come up short. And the predictive metrics tell us that such a loss is due to happen sooner or later. I know it’s commonplace to complain about the predictive side of things, especially when the results thus far have been so fruitful, but it’s not like Memphis’ subpar efficiency numbers are unwarranted. After all, the Tigers have beaten NET #184 East Carolina by four, NET #258 Charlotte by nine, NET #150 Wichita State by eight, NET #185 Rice by three, and NET #136 Temple by eight, all in the last calendar month. Doesn’t that concern you in the slightest? That you’re not beating these bad teams by bigger margins? It concerns me, that’s for sure. I mean, we literally just saw what happened with Oregon, where slim, unsustainable victories turned sour, as the predictive metrics, well, predicted. It’s certainly less likely to happen with Memphis due to opponent quality, but it’s not impossible. So just be patient, Tigers fans! Keep winning—preferably by double digits—and that lock will come soon enough.
Saint Mary’s: Has Saint Mary’s usurped Gonzaga as the WCC’s model of consistency? Not yet, is what the efficiency numbers would tell you, where the Bulldogs still rank ahead of the Gaels in all three team-sheet-official measures. But I’m not sure I agree. The Zags have had a couple rough nights here and there across West Coast Conference play, while SMC has been unperturbed, sweeping through the league to a 10-1 mark, with only a one-point loss this past Thursday to a very good San Francisco team keeping the Gaels from both conference and road perfection (the latter an achievement that Saint Mary’s completed in full last year). Losing a cornerstone like Aidan Mahaney to the portal, supplanting his production with a bunch of Lithuanian guys whose names I cannot spell, and being arguably better than last year, with a defense even more suffocating (as we saw in a 30-0 run across 15 minutes at Santa Clara not long ago), is just classic Randy Bennett. Same no-lock-yet reasoning here as for Memphis—just a case of conference strength—but the Gaels will get there in due time.
Gonzaga: So, what about the Zags? Has their reign as mid-major royalty ran out? (And yes, I said mid-major. They’re a Jesuit school with an enrollment of 7,000 that is only ever uber-competitive in men’s basketball. They’re a mid-major.) Back to the topic at hand—I’m not quite ready to renege on Gonzaga just yet. While I have been disappointed by their decline from the late ’10s/early ’20s teams that routinely earned top seeds, this program is still a decade strong on its string of Sweet Sixteen appearances. And the inherent quality numbers, all staunchly within the top 20, still indicate a group capable of eventually playing up to its potential, even though the lack of résumé success thus far (2-6 in Quad 1, 45.3 metric average) has left plenty of room for questioning. The Bulldogs aren’t going to get any sort of late-season facelift like they did exactly 366 days ago with their critical February victory at Kentucky, but a 6-0 finish with wins over each of Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara, and San Francisco twice is not all that unrealistic—and it would probably have Gonzaga somewhere similar to the 5 seed they ultimately earned in 2024. So, even though I think SMC is probably the superior WCC outfit this time around, we should be able to pump the brakes on the panic—at least for now.
Utah State: Lose your coach, hire a new one, make the tournament. Lose your coach, hire a new one, make the tournament. The patented Utah State method is in full swing once again in 2025! I don’t know what they’re feeding the basketball coaches in Logan, but, by golly, it works. The Aggies are in fine shape to reach their fifth NCAA Tournament in the last six tries, this time under Youngstown State pickup Jerrod Calhoun, sporting a 20-3 record overall, a 10-1 performance outside of the Spectrum with key road victories at Saint Mary’s and San Diego State, and nary a Quad 3 or 4 loss to go with seven Q1/2 victories in 10 chances. I am a bit hesitant on USU’s seed, given their less-than-sightly quality metrics as a result of some late-night nail-biters (no more games against Fresno State, please!), but I don’t have the same hesitation in regards to whether or not the Aggies are a tournament team at present moment. (They very much are.) Just keep up the good work; it is a pretty tough road ahead though with trips to Albuquerque, Boise, and Fort Collins all still on the docket.
New Mexico: Richard Pitino’s brand of New Mexico basketball: just as entertaining as always! You may wonder why I have Utah State in the safety zone and New Mexico at the forefront of my bubble, despite similar records and metrics, and the Lobos having the head-to-head win in Logan. Well, the answer’s pretty simple: just take a peek at what these two have done in Quad 3 and 4. Utah State? Nice and clean! New Mexico? …Not so much. Even then, I’d be willing to bet those gaffes wouldn’t be enough to make the selection committee second-guess a team sheet that’s 8-2 in the top two quads, south of 40 in both metric averages, and the owner of a handy-dandy win over UCLA in Henderson back during the first week of the season. Then again, I was completely wrong on my assessment of New Mexico last year, who I thought would be in win or lose in the Mountain West tournament championship game… only to see UNM land a seed beneath the Last Four In, meaning they indeed required that MW title victory. You really want to keep out a team that sprints up and down the court like Ricky P’s Lobos do, controlling the ball for just 15 seconds per possession on average? You’re missing out on prime TV money making decisions like that.
San Diego State: Utah State isn’t the only Mountain West team with a streak to preserve. Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs are in the hunt for their fifth consecutive run to the Madness (would be six if not for COVID—I still have nightmares about 2020), though the situation is a bit sweatier than usual. San Diego State presently finds itself in the unfamiliar position of being a true bubble team—one that wears a fairly tepid team sheet with résumé numbers in the mid-40s, efficiency measures as low as 59th, and a mark of just 7-6 against Quad 1-3 competition. In a normal year, this profile would probably be placed in the NIT. But this is no normal year, considering we’re giving precious bubble spots to multiple teams that possess a Q1 record of 1-7 or worse. Like, good god. And so one would guess that the Aztecs, holding on to not one but two almighty trump cards in the form of Players Era Festival victories over Houston and Creighton, would be in the field right now—maybe playing in Dayton, but in the field. Regardless, it’s an unsettling spot to be in. Might be a good idea to dole out some vengeance in the return games against Utah State and New Mexico later this month.
Drake: And so the top dog in the Valley for the last half-decade stays the top dog once again. Is anyone remotely surprised by this? Probably not, but it’s also not every day that you lose a former Missouri Valley Coach of the Year and his two-time Player of the Year son, pluck a new coach and new roster almost entirely from Division II, and go right back to winning 20+ games a year. They’ve got mid-major hoops down to a science out in Des Moines! And critically, Ben McCollum has some non-conference material to work with in shaping Drake’s at-large case; the win over Vanderbilt in Charleston looks probable to stay in Quad 1, and Kansas State’s sudden surge has moved the Bulldogs’ wild OT win over the Wildcats in Kansas City up to Q1, too. And, hey, if MVC rival Bradley can get back to its winning ways down the stretch, then Drake may very well end up with a Quad 1 record of 3-0 when it’s all said and done. Needless to say, that’s an incredibly enticing talking point, especially when paired with résumé metrics (KPI 42, SOR 35, WAB 40) more indicative of a bid than not. Stay the course and make it happen, Bulldogs.
VCU: Following Friday’s inexplicable win at Dayton, in which the Flyers led by five with four minutes left, before completely imploding to trail by seven with one minute left, I’m inclined to believe that VCU is the team of destiny out of this year’s A-10. And recent history may support this proposition. Come and venture with me into superstitious territory for a moment here—it could be fun. Ever since the Rams’ seven-year tourney streak from 2011 to 2017 broke in 2018, with Will Wade departing Richmond in the name of strong-ass offers, VCU’s visits to the madness have been perfectly sporadic, as the Rams relish in making an appearance every odd year (2019, 2021, 2023) and taking off every even year (2020, 2022, 2024). Welp, 2025 is an odd year (in case you didn’t know), so we’re due for VCU to dance once again. What’s more is that all three of these tourney trips came with exactly seven total losses to the Rams’ name. VCU presently sits at 18-5, so they’ll have to lose exactly twice more before Selection Sunday, else they won’t hear their name called. How’s that for some Bubble Watch analysis? (I feel like I just dipped my toe into astrology for the first time. Hey, the ram Aries is the zodiac symbol of March/April, after all.)
UC Irvine: Say it with me, y’all—Two-bid Big West! Two-bid Big West! If we yell it loud enough, we might make it reality! Alright, so this may be wishful thinking, but c’mon. How often do you get not just one but two potential at-large-level teams from the Big West? The Big freakin’ West!? If you aren’t familiar with the UC Irvine Anteaters, get familiar. Led by a 7-foot-tall German man named Bent who shoots better from both the free-throw line and three-point range than he does from two, the Anteaters are your prototypical March giant slayer; they put you in a bind defensively, they box you out on the boards, and they’re as clutch as they come at the charity stripe. The problem persists in the team sheet, which has some noteworthy gaps, including a 98th-ranked BPI, Quad 3 losses to UC Riverside and Duquesne, and zero wins against teams in the at-large field. This means that we must tread carefully to keep that feasible results average of 46.3 afloat, alongside a shiny record of 4-2 in Quad 1/2 that should stay firm until the postseason. Can a five-loss UCI team earn an invitation to March with no Big West tourney crown? For the sake of busting some poor 5 or 6 seed’s bracket, I sure hope so.
UC San Diego: Two thumbs up from me for UC San Diego and UC Irvine willingly partaking in the “road win-for-road win” program in order to give both résumés a boost. Teamwork! As a result of that, I’m not quite sure who I’d have ahead of the other in the bubble pecking order; Tritons take the edge in terms of far more tenable predictive metrics and biggest win between the two (at Utah State, Dec. 17), but point Anteaters in regard to better results metrics and having double the Q1/2 win count. (Gut says Zot Zot on this one.) But one key difference lies in the schedule ahead. Whereas UCI has only Q3 and Q4 games left, needing to basically be perfect from here on out, UCSD is presented with a rare additional Quad 2 opportunity: at CSUN on Feb. 27. Any and all kind of wins that fall into that quadrant are hugely beneficial, particularly for a mid-major team that doesn’t get many Q2 chances in the first place. (Also worth noting: This is UC San Diego’s first season as a tournament-eligible DI program after completing their required transition waiting period. Thank goodness they’re having this type of season now instead of, say, last year. Such an extraordinarily stupid rule.)
George Mason: It’s only fitting that George Mason is making a splash in the same season that Jim Larrañaga officially called it a career—all while Tony Skinn, a key contributor on that miracle ’06 team, is now running the show from the sideline. Circle of life, and all that! All in all, the Patriots have flown pretty under the radar, likely due in part their somewhat tedious play style (lethargic offense, smothering defense, slow-as-molasses tempo… is this just Virginia wearing a George Mason mask?), but, damn, if it ain’t working. With Saturday’s revenge win over Rhode Island in tow, GMU is now 17-2 since Thanksgiving, rising 24 spots in KenPom and 29 spots in NET as a result. Like most of these mid-major entries, the idea of an at-large George Mason is somewhat far-fetched, given their single Quad 1 victory at Dayton, which just barely hangs on to that uppermost tier at NET #75. But the Patriots are 3-1 in Quad 2, and their metrics really aren’t that far behind the P5 bubble teams sporting far worse records in the most impactful quadrants. We’ll watch the remainder of GMU’s Atlantic 10 campaign with much intrigue.
San Francisco: What’s this? A WCC team in Bubble Watch that isn’t Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s? A blessing from the lord! If this column had begun two weeks ago, it would be Santa Clara on the page instead. But after a 14-points loss at Oregon State, followed by a previously-mentioned encounter with the Gaels’ “you don’t get to score anymore” defense, the Broncs cede their spot to a far more appetizing Dons résumé. USF is admittedly a long shot, with results metrics around 50 and a 4-6 pace in Q1/2 probably placing them somewhere in the 8-10 teams out range, but the Dons importantly have two major opportunities ahead: home and away against Gonzaga. If San Francisco were to take one of the two and clean up the rest of the slate (which would include a Quad 1 win at Oregon State), could the committee leave out a 23-7 team that bested both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s in the same season? I mean, probably; it depends largely on the state of the rest of the bubble. But it would undoubtedly have you stroking your chin. Let’s see if we feel the same way after Thursday’s pit stop at the Kennel.
BRCT AND a fancy new Bubble Watch group of graphics? Absolutely spoiled this year.
Thank you! Putting more effort into Bauertology this year than ever before and it’s paying off!