Bauertology Top 25: Week 3

Let me introduce you to the wonderful stat of the G-Score.

The G-Score, or, in the long form, the Game Score, is an analytic devised the by the great Bart Torvik, whose T-Rank site is an invaluable resource for any college hoops junkie.

Torvik tracks a number of statistics on his site but the most genius of all has to be the G-Score. It’s a bit complicated to describe how it works, but it essentially analyzes a team’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency in a given game and spits out a number from 0 to 100, with 0 being the absolute worst and 100 being the absolute best.

In brief, the G-Score gives you a 100-point scale and tells you how well a team performed in any given game. For example, BYU’s ridiculous 81-49 win over Oregon netted the Cougars a perfect score of 100. The Ducks, on the flip side, had one of the most atrocious performances of the season, earning a 5 in G-Score. Pretty neat, huh?

Torvik’s G-Score is a fantastic resource, especially for stat-heads who don’t have the time to watch all the games. Life’s busy, at least it is for me, working a real job five days a week and having fairly minimal free time. So when I need to know how well a team performed in a game I wasn’t able to watch so I can make a weekly rankings, I just go to T-Rank and look at the G-Score and the box score provided. Thank you, Bart Torvik, for making my life as a college basketball analyst so much easier.

Now that I’ve informed you about the G-Score, which is a key element of how I rank my teams, let’s get into another week of wacky rankings. Remember: The goal of my rankings is to combat poll inertia and preconceived expectations. It is only fair to rank teams based on how well they have performed this season and not how well we think they’re going to perform. So while a team like North Carolina will probably get the benefit of the doubt in the AP Poll, I haven’t been super impressed with the Tar Heels through five games, so they won’t be on this list.

Lengthy introduction over! Let’s rank these teams.

1. GONZAGA (-)

Maintaining the top spot in my top 25 to the surprise of absolutely nobody is Gonzaga. The Bulldogs chugged right along, netting victories of 27 and 42 points over the past week, and they still have a top-tier victory from Week 1 against Texas. I don’t think much else needs to be said—other that I absolutely cannot wait for Tuesday night against UCLA: the rematch we’ve been waiting for.

2. PURDUE (+4)

Step aside Wolverines and Illini. There’s a new team at the top of the Big Ten. Purdue has been downright phenomenal to start the year; they completely blew away Bellarmine, Indiana State and Wright State in the first three games, then showed up and showed out in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic by downing North Carolina and Villanova on back-to-back nights. If not for Gonzaga being, well, Gonzaga, the Boilermakers would have a serious case for No. 1. And if you went on strength of wins alone, you very well could put Matt Painter’s crew at the top.

3. KANSAS (-1)

A drop in rank is by no fault of the Jayhawks—they did what was asked of them by clipping Stony Brook 88-59 on Thursday—and is only due to Purdue’s performances over the weekend. Oh, and that Ochai Agbaji guy? Yeah, he’s really good. The senior would probably win the Naismith Award if it were handed out today, dropping 29, 25 and 25 points in his first three outings of the season. It’ll be fun to see what he can do when Big 12 play rolls around.

4. UCLA (-1)

Same thing as Kansas; the only reason for the Bruins’ one-spot drop is Purdue. Maybe it’s slightly more warranted here, as UCLA did fail to create healthy separation from KenPom No. 293 Long Beach State until the mid-second half, but that’s nitpicking; the Bruins ultimately won that game by 21 points. And then they promptly stomped North Florida 98-63, meaning all is well in La La Land. It bears repeating; Tuesday night’s clash with Gonzaga is must-watch television.

5. BAYLOR (+3)

The Bears are back on the rise! Since a slightly concerning performance in Game 1 against Incarnate Word, the defending champs have been mauling the competition, culminating with an 86-48 embarrassment of a respectable Stanford team. (Hey, the Cardinal are in the KenPom top 100. Give me this one.) The most impressive player over Baylor’s 3-0 week was probably LJ Cryer, who posted 20 points in each of the Bears’ three wins. More time to jell for this starting lineup should mean that Baylor is only going to get better.

6. MEMPHIS (+1)

You need to do a little digging to realize how good Memphis has been. No, they don’t have the same caliber of wins yet that teams like UCLA and Purdue have, but a 2-0 week with victories over Saint Louis and Western Kentucky should not be overlooked. The Billikens and Hilltoppers are consistently two of the better mid-major programs out there, and the Tigers beat them both by double digits. They absolutely dominated the former 90-74, and though things did look in doubt for a minute in the first half against WKU, the Tigers rallied for a 12-point victory. Solid early-season wins that may do more for Memphis down the road than you might think.

7. SETON HALL (+10)

Alright, Seton Hall. We’re officially on notice. The Pirates moved into my Week 2 rankings after thoroughly dismantling Fairleigh Dickinson and reputable mid-major program in Yale in anticipation of a mighty challenge at Michigan on Tuesday. And, boy, did the Pirates deliver. Despite trailing by as much as 11 with 15 minutes to go, Seton Hall fought and fought until they left Ann Arbor with a 67-65 win—one of the best wins of the young season, unquestionably. Now if they can repeat that act with a neutral-floor win over Ohio State on Monday…

8. UCONN (+3)

Another convincing 2-0 week over low majors brings the Huskies up a couple spots. Dan Hurley’s group has looked great through the first 14 days, but there’s admittedly not much meat on the bones, as all four of their wins have come against teams that rank 280th or worse in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. We’ll put an end to that on Wednesday when UConn meets Auburn to open the Battle 4 Atlantis. A win there would certainly give me more confidence in the Huskies going forward.

9. ARIZONA (+11)

Of all the early-season surprises, Arizona might be the most impressive. I had them just outside my initial top 25, meaning I was still on high them entering the year despite the offseason turnover. But I could not have foreseen wins in Vegas over both Wichita State (by 4) and Michigan (by 18!). And don’t let that little “OT” in the Wildcats-Shockers box score scare you; Wichita State is a good team. Who knows how long it’ll last, but for the moment, Tommy Lloyd has done a simply phenomenal job in his first-ever head-coaching gig.

10. DUKE (+3)

Off-court distractions aside, Duke’s been rolling through the early season with a minor blip against Campbell being the only thing to worry about. (Again, off-court distractions aside.) Assuming Paolo Banchero gets to keep playing, the Blue Devils are in for an awesome clash of the titans on Friday against Gonzaga in the Continental Tire Challenge. That game is followed by a trip to Ohio State on Nov. 30, meaning the opportunities to build up that early-season résumé are bountiful.

11. FLORIDA (+5)

Florida has been another one of the young season’s most pleasant surprises—a team that was immediately put on my radar with a big win over Florida State, and stays on my radar after annihilating Milwaukee 81-45. Also being put on my radar is senior Anthony Duruji, who has arguably been the SEC’s top player through two weeks. The Gators won’t be road-tested until December, so it’s up to them to keep impressing at home to maintain their high ranking.

12. ALABAMA (-2)

Tuesday’s near-disaster against South Alabama merits a small drop for the Crimson Tide. Nate Oats’ squad trailed for much of that game until the 30-minute mark, when Keon Ellis decided, “We’re not going to lose to South Alabama at home,” and took matters into his own hands. That’s just as well, as Alabama reverted to its normal offensive capability on Friday by scoring 85 points for the third time this season in a 27-point win over Oakland. The gauntlet is coming up (Gonzaga, Houston and Memphis to begin December), so the time to finish the early-season tune-ups would be now.

13. TEXAS (+1)

Having a loss on the standings page is the reason I presently have Texas below undefeated teams like Arizona and Florida, but that loss was a mostly forgivable one to Gonzaga, and the Longhorns have looked just fine elsewhere. Neither game against Northern Colorado and San Jose State were ever in doubt for a second, and I’ll probably be saying the same thing next week after Horns take on Cal Baptist. That could end up being a long-term fault though; Seton Hall is the only “upper-class” non-conference opponent left on the schedule (Dec. 9). Might be important to win that game.

14. HOUSTON (+4)

Is it safe to say that Houston’s OT scare against Hofstra was a fluke? I think it might be. Right after dismantling Rice, the Cougars wiped the floor with longtime powerhouse Virginia 67-47. Granted, UVA isn’t shaping up to be a contender this year, but winning a game by 20 points without ever conceding the lead against one of the bigger ACC schools is impressive in a thousand different ways. My confidence in Kelvin Sampson and company is restored.

15. ILLINOIS (-10)

Remember last week when I wrote that Illinois shouldn’t have much reason to worry against Marquette without Kofi Cockburn? College basketball loves to make you eat your words like no other sport in existence. So, yeah, the Illini lost a game they should have won, thanks in no small part to Andre Curbelo trying to play hero ball, but it’s not as bad as you think. Marquette is looking like a better team than anybody expected, and Cockburn is indeed returning to the lineup for the Hall of Fame Classic opener against Cincinnati on Monday. Let’s see how the Fighting Illini handle the Bearcats and Arkansas/Kansas State before we make any big conclusions.

16. BYU (NEW)

Sweet baby Jesus. What is there more to say about BYU’s vaporization of Oregon on Tuesday? The Ducks (we believe) are a new-looking but capable team, led by Dana Altman, the established best coach in the Pac-12. And the Cougars just whooped ’em. That one win is enough to jump them from, “Well, OK, maybe they’re on my radar somewhere below No. 30,” to “OK, wow, they’re a top-20 team right now,” settling in at No. 16. Alongside Gonzaga and good looks from San Francisco and Santa Clara, the WCC is looking mighty capable this season.

17. VILLANOVA (-8)

Look at me, ranking a 3-2 team at No. 17. It goes against everything I stand for! Performance matters! But I just can’t drop the Wildcats from my top 25, not after how well they’ve played through five games. We talked about the UCLA loss last week—an easily forgivable one in a game that went to OT nearly 3,000 miles from home. This week, Villanova tacks on two more wins and a narrow defeat. One of those wins, a 71-53 thumping of Tennessee, is among the best wins of any team this season, and the loss, 80-74 to my No. 2 team Purdue, is just as forgivable as the UCLA loss. If anything, Villanova’s 19-point win over Howard was their least impressive performance of the week, as it took them until the 30-minute mark to lead by double digits consistently. I hate “giving the benefit of the doubt” to a team one game above .500 more than a week into the season, but I feel justified doing it here to Villanova.

18. USC (+1)

All is well for USC through three games, two of which were far away from home. And while the Trojans didn’t exactly play the toughest teams (Temple and Florida Gulf Coast), I applaud them for having the confidence to play those East-Coast games so early on in the season. The highlight player last week was Chevez Goodwin; now it’s Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis, who has been a true triple threat for SoCal (18 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists against FGCU). Now it’s back home for a tune-up game against Dixie State, then a spot in the Wooden Legacy Classic.

19. VIRGINIA TECH (+5)

They may just be playing mid- and low majors, but it’s still impressive to see Virginia Tech start the year 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 28 points. Mike Young’s squad is humming, and reuniting with Wofford transfer and 3-point demon Storm Murphy is certainly one big part of the equation. Like UConn, we’ll finally get to see if the Hokies are “for real” when they go up against a real opponent, Memphis, on Wednesday in the NIT Season Tip-Off tournament. A win over the Tigers would put the whole college basketball-watching world on alert.

20. KENTUCKY (+1)

Kentucky struggling to put away Ohio at home for 30 minutes seems bad in a vacuum. But here are some things to consider. Kentucky ended up winning by 19 and never trailed by more than 4 in the second half. And Ohio, in spite of its mid-major status, is quite good; the Bobcats place 50th in T-Rank at the moment and have already notched a big non-conference win over Belmont, plus they should be the clear favorite in the MAC this season (unless Buffalo, Miami OH or Akron have anything to say about it). Throw in a trouncing of Mount St. Mary’s on Tuesday, and Kentucky’s 3-1 start is as good as the record says it is.

21. ST. BONAVENTURE (NEW)

I chose to drop St. Bonaventure from my Week 2 rankings after the Bonnies failed to impress me against Siena and Canisius, but Mark Schmidt’s team has regained my trust with a trio of neutral-court wins over Boise State, Clemson and Marquette. None of those three teams are world beaters, but they’re all solid programs, and Bonnie took care of business, especially in their 16-point win over the Golden Eagles. If they can remain unbeaten until their Dec. 11 matchup against UConn, I’ll be all in on the Bonnie hype.

22. TEXAS TECH (-)

What is it with Big 12 teams and finding it difficult to put away lowly Incarnate Word early enough? The Red Raiders let the Cardinals hang around until about the 30-minute mark before going on to win the contest by 22, meaning no movement today for the lads from Lubbock. Their tune-up games have been a bit hit-and-miss so far (an 84-49 drubbing of Prairie View A&M being the one big hit), so I’d like to see the Red Raiders take care of business against Omaha and Lamar before I rank them any higher.

23. XAVIER (NEW)

Xavier is getting better with every game. After a close call against Niagara and a so-so outing against Kent State, the Musketeers bust the doors down with a show-stopping 71-65 defeat of in-state rival Ohio State before turning the corner on mid-major opponents with a 40-point win over Norfolk State. The NIT Season Tip-Off presents another good challenge for the X-Men; assuming a win over Iowa State, a battle against the victor of Virginia Tech-Memphis will be a great litmus test for Xavier.

24. MICHIGAN STATE (NEW)

After falling short of upsetting Kansas in the season opener, Michigan State has rolled to three straight wins over Western Michigan, Butler and Eastern Michigan by an average of 30 points. That gives the Spartans reason to feel confident going into the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. But the road ahead is not an easy one, and it all begins with a team just outside my rankings: Loyola Chicago on Wednesday. Should be a doozy.

25. TENNESSEE (-10)

Inconsistent as inconsistent gets through four games. After playing surprisingly poorly against terrible UT Martin and dominating solid ETSU, the Volunteers did basically the same exact things in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic. Tennessee didn’t even look interested against Villanova, shooting 5-of-28 from 3-point range in the 71-53 loss, with Santiago Vescovi being the only player to register more than 7 points. Then UT flipped the switch in reverse against North Carolina, dropping 89 on the Tar Heels while shooting over 50% from the floor. I mean, what the hell? So is Tennessee good or bad? More data needed.

FALLING OUT: Michigan (4), Oregon (12), Furman (23), Auburn (25)

NEXT FIVE: Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, Loyola Chicago, Arkansas

Leave a Reply

Discover more from BAUERTOLOGY

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading