For the first time in a long time, there’s a new face at the top.
For the last year and some change (excepting post-championship Baylor), Gonzaga has been the undisputed king of the college basketball polls, sitting on the throne at the top of the rankings basically every single week. But with the Bulldogs’ loss to Duke in the Continental Tire Challenge on Friday night, Gonzaga no longer wears the crown… at least for now.
I still firmly believe the Bulldogs are the most complete team in college basketball (T-Rank and KenPom agree), and once they work out some growing pains, they’ll be basically unstoppable like usual.
But my polls have always been about performance and results, not preconceived expectations. And so I must knock the Zags down a couple spots for receiving their first loss. And that means, for the first time in a long time, I have a decision to make regarding who ranks No. 1.
Buckle up and prepare yourself for some upside-down rankings.
1. PURDUE (+1)
You could discuss a number of teams in competition for the top spot, but realistically, the list comes down to two: Purdue and Duke. And then you argue about which you value more: Duke’s high-end wins (Kentucky, Gonzaga) or Purdue’s overall consistent greatness. You can make a compelling argument either way, but for now, I’ll take Purdue’s completeness—which includes shooting 44% from 3-point range as a team and the No. 2 adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation—through six games. And it’s not like the Boilermakers are lacking quality wins anyway; those wins in the Hall of Fame Classic over North Carolina and Villanova will be evergreen. Enjoy your time at the top, Boilermakers! You’ve earned it.
2. DUKE (+8)
This year’s Duke team looks completely different from last year’s mess. Even with an off-court distraction in the background, the Blue Devils went toe-to-toe and wire-to-wire with reigning No. 1 Gonzaga, keeping Chet Holmgren’s and Drew Timme’s damage to a minimum while the elite trio of Wendell Moore, Mark Williams and freshman phenom Paolo Banchero (as good as advertised) put on an offensive clinic to snag the 84-81 victory. It’s lonely at the top; the Blue Devils look to be the clear favorites in the ACC, while the rest of the conference is unranked. How about them apples?
3. BAYLOR (+2)
While I do think the No. 1 spot is a two-horse race between Purdue and Duke, I’ll gladly hear arguments for the Baylor Bears, too. The defending champions have just been getting better and better, most recently taking the Battle 4 Atlantis title with wins over Arizona State, VCU and Michigan State on three straight nights, the third of which was probably the best, seeing as it came by 17 points over a fringe top-25 team. The only question mark has been finding the replacement to Jared Butler’s and Davion Mitchell’s elite 3-point shooting (LJ Cryer appears to be only the player who can reliably splash one from deep), but everything else has been firing on all cylinders.
4. GONZAGA (-3)
Now it gets a little messy. We’re entering the territory where nearly every top team already has a loss under their belt. And so the best of the one-loss teams is obviously Gonzaga. The Bulldogs, of course, have quality wins to fall back on (Texas, UCLA) to prevent anyone from thinking one loss is their doom (it may prevent them from being the No. 1 overall seed at season’s end, but we’ll get there when we get there). Though the loss to Duke does show that the Zags have a couple things to clean up before they can move along—namely getting Holmgren and Timme rolling early and keeping them out of foul trouble—Gonzaga is still the predictive metrics’ darling (for good reason) and will ultimately be just fine.
5. ARIZONA (+4)
Now it gets REALLY messy. Fair warning: You are not going to see many other top 25 rankings, if any, with Arizona this high. But based on the criteria and precedents I’ve established, Arizona has certainly been one of the most impressive teams this season. This boost in ranking has more to do with to a bunch of teams ahead of them in last week’s rankings incurring losses (and less do with a routine victory over Sacramento State on Saturday), but the Wildcats have been just fabulous in every game they’ve played, already owning quality wins over Wichita State and Michigan in the process. If the Wildcats can stay unbeaten up to and through their Dec. 11 matchup with Illinois, then I expect you’ll start to see more analysts jumping on the wagon.
6. FLORIDA (+5)
Speaking of unbeaten teams that have exceeded expectations… Just like the Wildcats, the Gators won’t appear this high in many other rankings. But, just like the Wildcats, Florida has been awesome. A 3-0 week that featured a complete win over Cal, a thrilling buzzer-beating comeback victory over Ohio State, and a downright obliteration of Troy equals a spot just outside my top five. At least the heads have been turning a little bit quicker for Florida than they have for Arizona, and they’ll turn quite a few more if they can stay undefeated following Wednesday’s trip to Norman, Oklahoma.
7. UCLA (-3)
There was so much to write about in Gonzaga’s loss to Duke that I essentially skimmed over the Bulldogs’ trouncing of UCLA on Tuesday—a result that drops the Bruins a few spots and would have dropped them more if not for basically the rest of the top 25 getting pantsed in some way. Regardless, the Bruins clearly did not play their best basketball against Gonzaga, a mistake they’ll rue all season long. But let’s not abandon ship on UCLA yet; Gonzaga is still the best team in the nation accordingly to nearly every predictive metric, and the Bruins still own a top-tier win over Villanova from earlier in the month. Plus, they got right back on track on Saturday with a good ol’ pick-me-up win at UNLV 73-51. Is there reason to have some concerns with UCLA? Sure. Is it time to write them off? Not even close.
8. TEXAS (+5)
It’s important to note that these rankings also have an element of recency to them. I think that’s fair; basically every ranking does, and while I still think overall performance on the field is the most important thing to account for, it’s things like Texas’ three-game current winning streak by a combined 71 points that give the Longhorns the edge over a team like Kansas, which had a big neutral-court win over Michigan State on Nov. 5 but also got beat by a middling Dayton team just a few days ago. The problem with Texas is that we’re still waiting on a quality win (all four of their victories have been over Quad IV teams), but the opportunities will come eventually—first with a trip to Seton Hall on Dec. 9, then with conference play at the start of the the new year. It may take a while until we find out whether these Longhorns are as good as we think (and as good as they’ve played so far), but we will get there sure enough.
9. KANSAS (-6)
And here’s Kansas! Losing to Dayton at the buzzer in the semifinals of the ESPN Events Invitational isn’t a pretty look, especially when the Jayhawks led by as much as 15 in the first half before the defense began to shrivel. But Kansas rebounded with a 13-point win over feisty Iona, and (as mentioned in the previous blurb) they still have that win over Michigan State to hang their hat on. Oh yeah, and Ochai Agbaji has still been the best player in the sport through the first month, proving to be an immaculate scoring presence when the ball is in his hands. So, the Jayhawks drop six spots out of precedent, but I don’t really see too much reason to be hung up on this one blunder.
10. BYU (+6)
I’m not sure I fully believe that BYU is currently the 10th best team in the nation—mostly because that Oregon domination is looking less impressive every passing day, considering how badly the Ducks have been folding—but you can’t deny the results: The Cougars are 6-0 with a good home win over San Diego State, that aforementioned thrashing of Oregon, and now a road win over a solid Utah team—that’s three Quad II wins already. And let’s throw Alex Barcello in the Naismith discussion too since I haven’t seen his name brought up very much; dude’s racking up points and assists like no one’s business, and he’s doing it very cleanly, too—just four total personal fouls through six games played. More road games on tap for BYU (Utah Valley and Missouri State this week), so we’ll get to see more of what they’re made of.
11. USC (+7)
How is it possible for a team from Los Angeles to be flying under the radar? Probably because USC hasn’t been flashy—a total turnaround from last year’s team that relied on the stardom of Evan Mobley. It’s been a more complete team effort this year with Boogie Ellis and Chevez Goodwin leading the charge. And while most people were probably expecting the offense to be the most potent, that defense has been no joke! Through the Trojans’ 6-0 start, opponents have shot an abysmal 25% from long against USC, and only twice (Temple, Dixie State) has an opponent scored more than 61 on Andy Enfield’s squad. Defense wins championships (just ask Virginia and Baylor), and USC has that much figured out.
12. UCONN (-4)
If you want to watch exciting basketball games, you better be watching UConn. All three of the Huskies’ games in the Battle 4 Atlantis went down to the wire, and Dan Hurley’s squad ended up doing not too shabby in crunch time, coming out of the classic 2-1, with a 64-60 loss to Michigan State being the sole defeat. The next couple games shouldn’t be very close (Maryland Eastern Shore, Grambling State), but just you wait until Dec. 8 and 11, when the Huskies take to West Virginia before meeting with St. Bonaventure on a neutral court. More fun basketball in store for the team from Storrs!
13. IOWA STATE (NEW)
Here’s where I diverge greatly from the predictive metrics (No. 74 KenPom, No. 81 T-Rank). Because I absolutely need to reward Iowa State for the most astounding start to the season by any team, bar freakin’ none. Last season, the Cyclones finished 2-22. This season, they have already tripled that win total, and we’re not yet out of the first month. What seals the deal for me is back-to-back wins over Xavier and Memphis (both top-25 teams in my previous rankings) to take home the hardware in the NIT Season Tip-Off Classic, especially when most people (including myself) were counting them out entirely. I frankly don’t care if Iowa State implodes from this point forward and finishes near the Big 12 basement like expected. What they’ve done so far is nothing short of incredible and absolutely deserves to be exalted.
14. MEMPHIS (-8)
It’s very easy to be disappointed with Memphis’ flat performance against Iowa State, one that netted the Tigers an abysmal score of 18 in Bart Torvik’s G-Score stat. It’s very easy to say that this is the beginning of the decline and that this is just another one of those Penny Hardaway Memphis teams squandering away talent. And while my rankings are very dependent on performance, I am not the kind of the person to jump the gun on such accusations. Remember, the Tigers had just beaten Virginia Tech two days prior to that loss, and the Hokies are probably the best team in the ACC not named Duke. And don’t forget those wins over Saint Louis and Western Kentucky the week before. Memphis has been a great team through six games, and one slip-up, regardless of recent history, should not take away from that.
15. VILLANOVA (+2)
Whereas Gonzaga is the clear choice for the best one-loss team nation, the answer to the question of the best two-loss team is equally clear: it’s Villanova. Again, you can’t punish the Wildcats too much for losing in the early season to UCLA and Purdue (two of my top 10 teams), and you can’t help but feel that Jay Wright’s squad is going to find its groove. It may have already; Villanova simply dismantled La Salle on Sunday 72-46 despite a below-average shooting performance. They’ve got two more bouts upcoming in the Philadelphia Big 5 this week with Penn on Wednesday and Saint Joseph’s on Saturday. Expect similar results.
16. HOUSTON (-2)
Well, if Houston ain’t a fine mess to figure out. Remember how Houston in the early season had exactly one near-disaster and exactly two championship-level performances? Well, they did it again, but this time, they did it in the span of three days! The Cougars whipped Butler 70-52 last Monday in the Maui Invitational, primed for a strong finish to the classic and a jump in ranking. But not so fast! The always stingy Wisconsin defense stopped the Cougars in their tracks, resulting in a shocking 65-63 loss in a game that Houston trailed by as much as 20. Alright, I guess it’s a big drop then. But hold your horses! Houston rallied by vaporizing Oregon from existence 78-49, leading by 34 goddamn points with 15 minutes to play. Good god! I’m scratching my head just reading this recap. Houston, can you please figure out whether you’re a good team or not so I can have an easier time ranking you going forward? Much appreciated.
17. KENTUCKY (+3)
In a wild, wild week of college hoops, Kentucky’s results were… exceedingly boring: routine victories of 25+ points over Albany and North Florida. Obviously wins of those margins are nothing to sneeze at, but they’re nothing to fawn over either. The main thing to analyze with the Wildcats is their shooting. They do a nice job from short distance (54% overall), but their distance game needs a serious boost: just 27% as a team over their last four wins. But, hey, as long Oscar Tshiebwe continues to grab 15 rebounds a game, maybe they won’t need to rely on the long ball as much as they have in the past. Guess we’ll find out when some tougher opponents (Notre Dame, Ohio State and Louisville in mid-December) start to roll in.
18. LSU (NEW)
LSU was admittedly under my radar last week and probably should have earned a spot in at least my first five out. Now I correct all errors by placing them in my top 25. The Tigers are 7-0, and it’s not like they’ve only beaten nobodies; Liberty, Belmont, Penn State and Wake Forest, while not world-beaters in any sense of the measure, are all solid teams, and LSU handled most of them with ease. And this isn’t just some fluke according to the metrics; both T-Rank and KenPom now rank LSU among the top-20 most efficient teams in the sport. Behind Darius Days’ 3-point prowess, it’s been a balanced attack for LSU. Keep an eye on the Tigers going forward.
19. ARKANSAS (NEW)
I’m not quite sure why the Razorbacks place so highly in so many people’s rankings (something tells me poll inertia based on their preseason spot has a lot to do with it), but after winning the Hall of Fame Classic with convincing wins over two quality opponents (Kansas State and Cincinnati), I’m ready to bring the Hogs back into my top 25. It is worth mentioning that Arkansas somehow went 3-0 last week in spite of shooting a downright dreadful 9-56 (16%) from 3-point range across those three games. They’ll need to clean that up swiftly over the next few weeks, considering how valuable offense tends to be in the SEC.
20. ALABAMA (-8)
So the SEC has some fighters. Alabama, my preseason pick out of the conference, now places fifth in my rankings behind Florida, Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas. That’ll happen when you lose a stunner to Iona, a loss that could hinder the Crimson Tide’s résumé months down the road depending on how the Gaels turn out. But just as I said “don’t panic” about UCLA and Memphis’ disappointing defeats, I bring the same message for Alabama. Those 80-71 and 96-64 wins over Drake and Miami respectively are likely more indicative of the Alabama we’ll see going forward. Plus, we’ll really get to see what the Tide are made of with the schedule next showing Gonzaga (Dec. 4), Houston (Dec. 11) and Memphis (Dec. 14). Bring your umbrella, ’cause it’s gonna rain buckets.
21. TEXAS TECH (+1)
Texas Tech helped its image marginally by beating up scrubs once again, this time wiping Omaha 96-40 and Lamar 89-57. But the time for the tuning up is over. The Red Raiders’ 6-0 record has been a product of easy scheduling; now let’s see if it remains spotless with a trip to Providence and a neutral-court battle with Tennessee next on the schedule. Great shooting and crafty rebounding have guided Texas Tech so far, and they’ll need more of that to be 8-0 by next Wednesday. And with no player earning more than 57% of minutes through the first three weeks, this will be a great opportunity to find out who will end up becoming the Red Raiders’ starting five.
22. SAN FRANCISCO (NEW)
Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to the only 8-0 team in the country. And don’t think that’s a product of weak scheduling. Sure, San Francisco hasn’t played any team of the same caliber as, say, Duke or Kansas, but they have earned some key neutral-court wins over good mid-majors like Davidson and UAB—wins that will do more for their résumé than you think come tournament time. And speaking of that, the Dons may not need to do the impossible (beating Gonzaga) to earn a spot in March Madness considering the strength of the WCC—BYU, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara are all looking good. It’s way too early to discuss that kind of stuff yet, but I can tell you that San Francisco has their eye on it.
23. WISCONSIN (NEW)
Wisconsin starting the 2021-22 campaign 5-1 with wins over Houston and Saint Mary’s comes as a pleasant surprise considering all the turnover from last year’s team. But aside from a rare misstep at home against Providence, the Badgers have looked the part, now the proud owner of “2021 Maui Invitational Champions” next to their name. There’s more tough non-con scheduling ahead, with Georgia Tech and Marquette on tap this week. But if the Badgers can pull through, their non-conference slate is going to look mighty fine when it comes time to evaluate tournament résumés.
24. INDIANA (NEW)
Indiana has been the bridesmaid of my top 25 through my early rankings: always just on the outside looking in. Well, this is the week they jump in, and they can thank losing performances from previous top-25 teams and Trayce Jackson-Davis’ 43-point performance against Marshall for the boost. Unsurprisingly, it has been mostly the Trayce show in Bloomington, as he’s the only player with more than 60% of minutes, but, hey, whatever works. Now that the Hoosiers are done beating up on nobodies (yes, I know they beat St. John’s, too), let’s see how they fare against some stiffer competition: Syracuse, Nebraska, Wisconsin all up next.
25. MICHIGAN STATE (-1)
I feel pretty confident saying Michigan State is the second best two-loss team in the nation after Villanova. Yes, the Spartans let a close game against Baylor get away from them in the second half, but let’s not take too much away from their victories over Loyola Chicago and UConn (two tournament-level teams) in the days proceeding. They’ve also looked the part against weaker teams like Butler and Eastern Michigan in spite of the fact that a true starting five has yet to be established. Give Tom Izzo the magician more time, and I expect Sparty will be up and at ’em once again.
FALLING OUT: Seton Hall (7), Illinois (15), Virginia Tech (19), St. Bonaventure (21), Xavier (23), Tennessee (25)
NEXT FIVE: Iowa, Tennessee, Michigan, Auburn, Xavier