If this past weekend’s slate of complete and utter madness doesn’t convince you that college basketball is the greatest sport on earth, then there’s no saving you.
Saturday alone featured an 11-point comeback with less than a minute remaining, at least three enormous buzzer beaters with heavy postseason implications, and nine ranked teams losing in a single day.
Folks, it’s not even March yet.
And the early madness only keeps on rolling with the start of conference tournament play—the ASUN begins its quest for March Madness tonight.
But what’s especially caught my eye regarding the recent ridiculousness is that the bubble actually appears to be strengthening instead of weakening—the inverse of what usually happens. Maybe crack that up to the bubble previously being as yucky as it could be, but the point stands: there are a lot more teams in this thing than one would expect at this time of year.
As a consequence, we’ve made no progress at narrowing down our potential field, stuck with 58 at-large contenders (one more than last week), who slot into our three categories like this:
- Locks: 25 teams
- Safe for now: 16 teams
- Bubble: 17 teams (for 5 available spots)
Two days to go until March, people. Strap in.
ACC
- Locks: Virginia, Miami
- Safe for now: Duke, Pittsburgh
- Bubble: NC State, North Carolina, Clemson
Let’s recap: the ACC’s likeliest shot at a top 4 seed has looked absolutely atrocious the last two weeks, the only other lock just earned a Quad 4 home loss at the buzzer, another at-large hopeful got beat by 25 on its own floor, and the highest rated team in the league per KenPom now sits as 34th—below three Mountain West teams and 70% of the Big 12. Not exactly a banner week for the ACC, eh? Not exactly a banner year.
Duke: If there’s something redeeming to say about the ACC, it’s that it should have its third lock very soon with Duke. The Blue Devils looked a lot more consistent than the fluctuating mess I wrote about last Monday, doing some much-needed T.C.O.B. with consecutive victories of 17 and 16 points. (That 34th-place KenPom team I wrote about in the last paragraph? That’s Duke!) There are still some ugly spots on this résumé, namely a 2-7 Quad 1 record and no true road wins against the NET top 100, but so long as the Blue Devils don’t completely fall on their face in the final week of the regular season, they’ll be good to go.
Pittsburgh: Can you start to feel it, Panthers fans? Saturday’s domination of Syracuse—a game that was separated by double digits for 75% of the second half—felt like the culmination of everything this team has grown to be in very short order. At this moment, Pitt sits on top of the ACC—an insane turnaround for a team picked 14th in the preseason. Granted, they still need to finish the job; an awful ACC doesn’t provide many places to give the Panthers’ bubbly metrics a boost, likely leaving them in the range of a 9 or 10 seed despite their successes. But avoiding disaster at Notre Dame on Wednesday should leave the Jeff Capel crew feeling mighty confident heading into Greensboro with a double bye.
NC State: If a single-digit-loss ACC team with middling metrics, a NET somewhere in the 40s, and unimpressive upper-tier win totals coming off a late February double-digit loss to Clemson sounds familiar, you’re not imagining it. Those were the exact same circumstances for last year’s Wake Forest, which, spoiler alert, did not end up making the NCAA Tournament. Not exactly the words you want to hear if you’re an NC State fan, considering the Wolfpack looked so close to crossing the finish line before slipping and falling in brutal fashion on Saturday. Tuesday’s visit to Cameron Indoor suddenly feels a lot more important.
North Carolina: Way to go, Tar Heels! It only took four months and 29 tries, but the preseason #1 team finally has a Quad 1 win… at least for now. North Carolina thrashed Virginia hard enough to drop the Cavaliers seven spots in the NET to 28th overall, i.e. only three ranks away from dropping out of Q1 entirely. Oh, the irony! Regardless, that is only the Tar Heels’ second victory against a tournament team, and the rest of the team sheet isn’t all that awe-inspiring. All things considered, UNC is likely still on the outside looking in, making Saturday’s regular-season finale rematch with Duke a must-win. Weren’t we in this same spot just a year ago?
Clemson: See? I told you that keeping Clemson on the page last week was a good idea! (Please don’t go back and read their blurb from last week.) The needle was 90% of the way inside this bubble—key word being was; the Tigers have since disposed of Syracuse by 18 and put up 54 first-half points in Raleigh for an eventual 96-71 Quad 1 win (their fourth in Q1) to rise 21(!) spots in NET. That is one heck of a way to save your season. There’s still work to do with every measuring number sitting below 50th (and let’s not forget those four Q3/Q4 losses), but, hey, look what’s next on the schedule! A trip to slumping Virginia, which, despite the recent slide, still provides a Quad 1 opportunity for the time being. The Tigers might actually pull this thing off.
BIG 12
- Locks: Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU
- Safe for now:
- Bubble: West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Looks like the Big 12 is all in on this “what’s the worst record you can have and still make the tournament” experiment, with all three of the league’s bubble teams presently sitting at 16-13. We’ll likely have as few as six or as many as eight in the big dance, depending on how these final weeks play out.
West Virginia: For those wondering why West Virginia is on the bubble with the #20 KenPom rating (up six spots after a slim loss at 1 seed Kansas) and the fifth-toughest strength of schedule in the country, let me provide last year’s Oklahoma as an eerily similar comparison. By selection day, the Sooners were 30th in KenPom and faced the third most arduous schedule of any team, compiling a 4-12 Quad 1 record in the process. (Sound familiar?) Even with three Quad 1A wins (which, by the way, the Mountaineers have zero), Oklahoma was the second team out with a total record of 18-15. That overall number is going to matter, y’all.
Oklahoma State: At least the Mountaineers can rely on the predictive numbers to say that they’re a tournament team; Oklahoma State can’t do that, as this four-game skid has sunk the Cowboys 15 places in KenPom and 17 in NET. That’s really not good for a team that has essentially the exact same profile as West Virginia everywhere else. And it doesn’t get any easier, as OSU closes out the regular season with a home game against a hungry Baylor and a fateful visit to Texas Tech on Saturday. The Big 12 takes no prisoners.
Texas Tech: Texas Tech’s late-season ascent has relied on every result since Feb. 11 going the way of the Red Raiders—that is, until TCU pulled out an 83-82 victory in Lubbock on Saturday to break some Raiders hearts. The margin for error was already extremely slim and is now even more so; a 5-13 Q1/Q2 record and performance metrics in the 60s aren’t likely to get the job done. Doing the unthinkable by winning at Kansas on Tuesday would provide a lot of relief. And if that one doesn’t go TTU’s way, consider the home finale against OK State an elimination game.
BIG EAST
- Locks: Marquette, Xavier, UConn, Creighton
- Safe for now: Providence
- Bubble:
Obviously, it’s far too late for Villanova to make its way into the at-large conversation, but, boy, if they aren’t going to be the trendy pick to take this thing all the way to the Big East Tournament title at MSG less than two weeks from now. Hey, if Georgetown could do it in 2021, why can’t a significantly more talented Villanova team do it now? (Also, Seton Hall is off the page. Sorry, Pirates, but that profile in its current state is not sniffing the tournament at all.)
Providence: With four locks and no more bubble teams, that leaves just one Big East player left on the radar—welcome to Bauer’s Friars Watch, baby! Providence’s rise to eventual tournament lock hit a snag on Wednesday with an 18-point loss in Storrs (just another data point for UConn and Providence fans to bicker about) before returning to the course with a very no-frills 20-point victory at Georgetown on Sunday. Anything but an 0-2 week at home to finish up regular season play should have this version of PC 100% secure, as opposed to the wacky bubbler that Providence usually is. (The latter might be more fun to talk about, but the former is a lot more enjoyable if you’re a Friars fan.)
BIG TEN
- Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland
- Safe for now: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
- Bubble: Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State
Leave it to the newcomer to show up the rest of the Big Ten. In year one at the helm, Kevin Willard has transformed Maryland into one of the nation’s 20 most efficient teams, energizing the Xfinity Center into a graveyard for Big Ten opposition in the process. These Terrapins were picked 10th in the conference preseason poll; instead, they’re the conference’s fourth choice to lock into March Madness. Well done, Terps.
Illinois: Is there a Big Ten team more confounding than Illinois? It’s strange to think that the team that rallied for a spirited 18-point comeback against Northwestern on Thursday is the same as the one that trotted back out on the hardwood of Value City Arena three days later to effectively gift Ohio State its first victory in over a month. Confusing times in Urbana-Champaign. The good news is that the former Illini have appeared a lot more than the latter Illini this season, so as long as they don’t completely combust against Purdue and a suddenly dangerous Michigan this week, they’ll be just fine.
Iowa: From scoring 52 points in a loss at Wisconsin to putting up 112 on Michigan State a half-week later. That’s Hawkeye basketball, baby! Credit to Iowa for piecing together one of the most statistically improbable final-minute comebacks in Division I history on Saturday—one that they really needed to end a two-game skid and sudden slide out of tournament safety range, as those funky NET fluctuations have reduced Iowa’s seven Quad 1 wins to four in an instant. (It’s true, look it up.) Iowa appears to be back in control, and a win over Indiana or even Nebraska this week is likely to be the official stamp of approval.
Michigan State: You know that thing they say about fouling up three? That thing you should do with about five seconds left so the opposing team doesn’t get off a miracle shot to send it to overtime? Yeah, about that… That’s OK, it happens, and Michigan State is still in good standing since they countered that disaster with a 15-point win over Indiana on Tuesday—a win that lies firmly in Quad 1, of which the Spartans have six. This résumé is in alright shape, so long as MSU doesn’t undergo a similar snafu in each of its remaining games (at Nebraska, vs. Ohio State).
Rutgers: Sunday’s comeback in State College is the kind of sigh of relief Rutgers badly needed. For a long time, the Scarlet Knights had built their empire on the tenet of “only team to beat Purdue.” But now everyone’s doing that these days, so that “extra special” win ain’t so “extra special” anymore, making it a lot harder to cover up the woes of four losses in five tries through mid-February. The Penn State win at least stops the bleeding, though there are still a lot of offensive kinks for Steve Pikiell to work out before this group can saddle in for March.
Wisconsin: Hey, so that thing about fouling up three? That thing I was just talking about like a paragraph or two ago? Kinda important to remember to do that, even more so for this Wisconsin team, which really could have used another Quad 1 road win to cover up the spotty marks on this résumé. I still think the Badgers are OK in spite of their bubbly record and metrics because of their non-bubbly upper-tier win totals, but you can’t get complacent either—not when a towering foe like Purdue, one that can eviscerate your metrics beyond recognition, is next up on the schedule.
Michigan: Hello, Michigan. We’ve been expecting you. Leave it to the boys from Ann Arbor to fart around for 90% of the season, only to put the pieces together in the homestretch to create a suddenly compelling tournament case out of thin air. How do y’all do it? I mean, this résumé has, like, six or seven wins over other tournament teams, two of those coming on the road. The Wolverines have ascended from out of the conversation completely to First Four Out range at an alarming pace; what a story it would be if they can close it out. The issue now is a very challenging road ahead—at Illinois and at Indiana—but pull off that stunt and we may just have these men in March for a seventh straight year.
Penn State: Sunday’s disaster against Rutgers summarizes Penn State basketball pretty well—when they’re hot (first half), they’re scorching, and when they’re not (second half), they’re ice cold. As heartbreaking as that defeat may be, it doesn’t really affect Penn State’s tournament outlook in the grand scheme of things, except for perhaps making pulling off a stunner in Evanston on Wednesday a bit more of a necessity (it might have been either way). As I said last week, it would be a shame if a special talent like Jalen Pickett never gets the chance to wow audiences in the big dance. Find a way to work it out, Nittany Lions.
PAC-12
- Locks: Arizona, UCLA
- Safe for now: USC
- Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon
So the Pac-12 may get this thing right after all, huh? The likelihood of Arizona and UCLA being the league’s only representatives in March Madness took a big dip after the shenanigans that ensued out on the West Coast last week—buzzer beaters, road sweeps, you name it. Funny how one weekend of wackiness can change a conference’s perspective on life so severely.
USC: Last week, I wrote about how winning in the Pac-12 against good-not-great teams, especially on the road, is a much tougher task than meets the eye. USC then proceeded to make it look like no big deal, coming out of the Mountain West road trip with 19- and 13-point victories over Colorado and Utah, respectively. That tacks a pair of Quad 1 wins onto a résumé that really needed that kind of boost. Now 10-6 in Q1/Q2 games with every metric but BPI at 40th or higher, the Trojans look to be a half-step above the bubble crop. And if they’re able to wipe up their remaining home games against Arizona and Arizona State, then we’ve got a tournament shoo-in down in SoCal.
Arizona State: I’m going to try to enunciate Arizona State’s tournament case as best as I possibly can, though that might be tough to do, considering I’m still speechless at Saturday’s result in Tucson. Not an exaggeration to say that that’s one of the most unbelievable regular-season buzzer beaters I’ve ever seen. Also not an exaggeration to say that this one result immediately turns the Sun Devils’ lackluster team sheet into something worth considering putting in the field altogether. If they can save some of that magic for the closing road trip to Los Angeles, then we may get Bobby Buckets in the First Four after all. What can I say? ASU loves Dayton and isn’t afraid to show it.
Oregon: After careful consideration, I’ve decided to reinflate Oregon’s bubble, if only temporarily. Top 50 predictive metrics and strong SOS numbers to go with nine Q1/Q2 wins are certainly worthy of an at-large look, though a duo of Quad 3 losses and just one truly compelling win (Arizona) likely have the Ducks sitting in the range of an NIT 2 or 3 seed. The lack of opportunity ahead—Cal and Stanford to conclude the regular season—is what leaves this tournament case so dire. But the Pac-12 Tournament is just around the corner, and Dana Altman’s groups have been known to deal some damage in Paradise from time to time.
SEC
- Locks: Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky
- Safe for now: Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Auburn
- Bubble: Mississippi State
Remember when Kentucky was considered to be in serious danger of missing the tournament? Those were fun times. Those days are a relic of the past, as four straight Quad 1/2 wins, the latest being an 86-54 waxing of Auburn, have taken the Wildcats out of NIT contention and into the conversation for a top-6 seed. When BBN swears that the sky is falling, it’s usually just a few speckles of rain.
Arkansas: You’d really like to see Arkansas put together one more really solid win before locking them into March, and they may get there regardless. A 3-point loss at Alabama actually boosted the Razorbacks up to 15th in KenPom and 14th in NET, which, yeah, that’s a no-brainer tournament team, though their refusal to win any big-time SEC games other than in Lexington on Feb. 7 does leave this résumé a little more open to interpretation. Just take one of two against Tennessee and Kentucky this week, and we’ll be square, Hogs fans.
Texas A&M: A win at Mississippi State on Saturday would have been enough to lock Texas A&M, but alas, the Aggies went 13 minutes without a field goal in the second half to lose by seven and keep their status up in the air for one more week. It happens. Ultimately, that’s a very small setback for a résumé that still features five Quad 1 wins, top-25 numbers in nearly every category, and a shiny new home win over Tennessee since the last bubble update. Much like Arkansas, A&M just needs to show up in this final week against an always-frisky Ole Miss or an always-challenging Alabama to secure the first March Madness bid in College Station since 2018.
Missouri: Missouri has routinely kept a flair for winning enough games to be securely in the conversation but never playing convincingly enough to feel certain about their postseason odds. That’s what makes Saturday’s win at Georgia a nice change of pace: an 85-63 walk-in-the-park for a team that had just got punked at Auburn 11 days prior. That NET (49) and those predictive numbers (BPI 65, POM 53, SAG 54) may keep internal thoughts on the Tigers somewhat uneasy until the end of time, but so long as Dennis Gates and company don’t embarrass themselves against LSU and Ole Miss this week, there’s really no reason for concern.
Auburn: There may be reason for concern for these Tigers, though. Since starting the season 16-3, Auburn has gone 3-7, accruing exactly one worthwhile win (that aforementioned stomping of Mizzou) in the last 30 days. I wouldn’t say that slide is enough to place the Tigers on the bubble quite yet, but things are getting undoubtedly dicey, especially when you peek ahead at the schedule to see that Alabama and Tennessee are what remain. Pending those results, Auburn’s tournament case could look very good or very bad a week from now.
Mississippi State: Mississippi State’s come-from-behind victory over Texas A&M on Saturday is the kind of result that goes under the radar—that’s a Quad 1 win as it stands right now, likely enough to elevate the Bulldogs’ bubblesome profile above the First Four. Really good to get that one because that’s it in terms of big résumé builders before the SEC tournament; now the goal is to not spill the chili against South Carolina and Vanderbilt before postseason play begins. Come out of the week 2-0 and MSU is in a good spot.
OTHERS
- Locks: Houston, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State
- Safe for now: Nevada, Florida Atlantic, Boise State, Memphis
- Bubble: Utah State, New Mexico, North Texas, Oral Roberts, Charleston
Case in point that mid-major basketball is awesome: Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s battled in a fabulous contest between two WCC foes that can clearly cause some damage in March, Charleston now owns 28 wins entering the CAA tournament, more than other team in Division I, and the Mountain West continues to break brains on a nightly basis. You’re missing out if you’re not watching this stuff, folks.
Nevada: Save Mart Center has been a terrifying place to play for the Mountain West’s contenders this year, but Nevada escaped Fresno with the W to keep its Q3 and Q4 totals clean, rising back into the NET top 30 as a result. Though that number is more helpful for other teams (see Utah State below), it’s a good sign that things are on the right path in Reno. Just two more Quad 3 pitfalls to avoid in the form of Wyoming (away) and UNLV (home) before it’s time to head 450 miles southeast to Vegas for the conference tourney—take care of business now, and the Wolf Pack should be able to breathe easy no matter what else happens.
Florida Atlantic: You know what’s a good way to get an annoying loss at Middle Tennessee out of your head? Winning your next two games by a combined 66 points. FAU didn’t just handle the UT schools; they slaughtered them, and the NET (from 24 to 19) and KenPom (from 40 to 30) measurements have adjusted accordingly. Now 24-3 with only mild challenges at Rice and Louisiana Tech remaining before the postseason, the Owls are on the doorstep. Just don’t trip on the rug, and Conference USA may have its first single-digit seed since 2013.
Boise State: So Boise State may have lost at San Jose State over the weekend, but you know what? That’s OK! The Spartans are actually a pretty decent team now, winners of eight conference games after a decade-plus of futility, so a loss in their arena only counts as Quad 2. That means the Broncos’ metrics actually held steady, and paired with their Q2 home win over New Mexico on Wednesday, that gives Boise a rock-solid 9-5 record in Quads 1 and 2 to go with a top-30 NET ranking. It’s not the most impressive résumé when you get into the nitty gritty (neutral Texas A&M is the only non-home win against the NET top 70), but it’s the résumé of a team that gets into the tournament 9 times out of 10. Knocking off San Diego State on Tuesday would fill in that missing 10%.
Memphis: Don’t look now, but Memphis is starting to build its way to safety in spite of the lack of a marquee win on the team sheet. How is this possible for a team that just narrowly avoided disaster against Wichita State and Cincinnati back-to-back? Well, just compare the Tigers’ résumé with the Broncos’ above. Pretty similar, huh? Even right down to a Quad 1 win over Texas A&M. That bodes well, considering the dominating school of thought has been that Memphis really needs to win this rematch against Houston on March 5. Maybe that’s not the case anymore. (Still would be really good to get that one, though.)
Utah State: North Carolina got its first Quad 1 win of the season on Saturday, and when the NET updated the morning after, Utah State did too! Hoorah! A temporary sigh of relief the Aggies—temporary, as their new Q1 win over Nevada is a Q1 win by the slimmest definition possible (NET 30), while their upcoming Q1 opportunity against Boise State is Q1 by the second slimmest definition possible (NET 29). So, maybe keep the champagne and party hats tucked away for now. Just finish out this schedule with two victories heading into Vegas and hope for a little luck to go your way, Aggies.
New Mexico: Oh, boy. It does not get much more painful than watching your potentially season-saving win slip away at the buzzer in your own ball court. That’s been the story of February for New Mexico, which is now 1-6 since the month began and 7-9 in MWC play. Think about that—when’s the last time a non-P6 team with a sub-500 conference record was considered a tournament contender? A rare find in a rare season, though the Lobos won’t be around for much longer if they can’t get make some serious noise in the conference tournament. It could be adios sooner rather than later.
North Texas: Welcome to the far outskirts of the bubble. North Texas was already considered a long shot in last week’s edition, then the Mean Green missed out on their final Quad 2 opportunity of the regular season with a 55-49 loss at Charlotte. Much like the likely one-bid leaguers below, UNT’s only hope lies in winning out to the Conference USA title game. (Of course, if they get that far, they should probably just win it outright.) The more probable course of action for a two-bid C-USA would fall on the Mean Green getting the automatic bid and FAU grabbing an at-large. Are you willing to take one for the team, Owls? Probably not.
Oral Roberts: That’s goal number one down: finish conference play unbeaten. And with Eastern Washington falling at Idaho State on Saturday, the Golden Eagles are the only team in 2023 to accomplish that feat. (Oh, the glorious land!) Obviously, their work isn’t done; should ORU fail to win the Summit League auto-bid, South Dakota State and maybe St. Thomas are the only opponents that their hypothetical loss could come against in order to remain in Quad 3—everything else would fall in the rightmost column. Even then, it’s iffy. The best course of action is, as always, to just keep winning.
Charleston: It would be a crying shame if a potentially 30-win Charleston team is left at home should the Cougars miss out on the CAA automatic bid. (Well, 29, since that North Greenville win doesn’t really count. But who’s counting?) An NIT spot isn’t even guaranteed since Hofstra earned the conference’s 1 seed, though that’s the least of CofC’s worries. The bigger concern is that Virginia Tech’s slide down the NET rankings could end up removing one of the two Quad 2 victories that Charleston has been clutching onto the entire season. Would a 29-4 Cougars team with a 1-1 record in Quad 1/2, a bottom-25 SOS, and metrics floating around the 60s really earn an at-large invite? I don’t like those odds. Please just win the darn thing, Charleston.